2010 Rotation Comparisons - Yanks, Sox, Angels, Mariners

If the season started today here are what each teams rotation would look like along with typical WAR statistics for each pitcher.

For those who don't know.  WAR is Wins above Replacement player, meaning that player can net (or cost you) X wins over some random guy from the minor leagues (please see all of our 5th starters last year).

Note some of these stats are from last year, some are projected for 2010, and some are "average" for the pitcher over their career.  I didn't have all the stats consistent so I just used a compilation of them.  You get the idea:

Boston Red Sox:

John Lester:  5.6
Josh Beckett:  4.9
John Lackey:   4.0
Clay Buchholz:  2.5
Dice-K :  2.5

Total:   19.5

Note Buchholz wasn't a 2.5 pitcher last year, so that stat is projected.  Dice-K was a disaster (0.5) last year but was a 3+ pitcher the 2 years before so the 2.5 is an average assuming he comes back and doesn't suck.

Seattle Mariners:

Felix Hernandez:  6.9
Cliff Lee:   6.2
Ryan Rowland-Smith:   2.6
Ian Snell:  1.8
Brandon Morrow:  1.6

Total: 19.1

The Mariners have 2 aces and 3 up and coming pitchers.   The last 3 pitchers are all projected to do better that last year (Snell and Morrow didn't do anything in 2009)   That still gives them a pretty good chance to win and a pretty nice rotation, especially in a playoff series if they can get there.

New York Yankees:

C.C Sabathia:  6
Andy Pettitte:  3
A.J. Burnett:  3
Joba Chamberlin:  1.5
Chad Guadin:  0.1

Total:   13.5


Note the WS champs didn't have a great pitching staff last year and still won it all.  Which leads us into our rotation:



Scott Kazmir:   2.8
Joe Saunders:    2.0
Ervin Santana:   2.6
Jared Weaver:  3.25
Minor Leaguer:  0

Total:  10.65

Saunders and Santana are averaged here.   Santana has been a 5+ win pitcher in the past but is inconsistent and that lowers his numbers.   Saunders was almost a 3 win pitcher in 2008 but lousy in the first half of last year and good in the second half.   Kazmir is a projection but he has historically been a 3-4 win pitcher.  Weaver is the only one with solid 3+ wins every year.

Based on these stats it doesn't look good in terms of our rotation.  That said we're basically looking at the Angels numbers as if everyone gets hurt again.  If they don't we might be able to add another 3-4 wins with the current rotation and that's not even counting a 5th starter.    That puts us in Yankee territory as far as the quality of our rotation.   Not great but not bad either.

For comparison purposes:

Derek Lowe:   3.9
Roy Halladay:  6.7
Josh Johnson:  5.2

The Angels have some work to do if they want to statistically compete with these other teams in the rotation department.  Of course Pitching is only half the game, hitting is also relevant, and the Angels did that well last year.  This comparison also doesn't reflect bullpens.   So not having as good a rotation as these other teams doesn't mean the Angels can't compete, it just means they'll have to do it in other ways.

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