My prediction
I betcha we trade Juan Rivera for Derek Lowe, then sign Jason Bay. Hopefully get someone to take on at least part of GMJ's salary. Would be some sucky outfield D, but a rock-solid rotation and a super-potent offense, all for the usual payroll.
about 2 years ago
mattwelch
61 comments
1 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Am I missing something?
Lowe sucks. He was awful last year, his ERA+ was 88, his peripherals were down in every meaningful category, he’s gonna be 37, and he has three years and 45MM left on his deal. Why would the Angels trade a bag of balls for that, alone a productive player?
I think this Fangraphs article does a good job of summarizing...
…the problems:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/derek-lowe-and-red-flags/
There are positives with Lowe, but the potential negatives are non-trivial.
Lowe...
Seriously, where is this manlove for Lowe coming from? Maybe Sarge straight up, but Rivera?
-Rivera remaining contract is 2/$9.5 million. If he were a FA how much do you think he would get? More than Abreau… Dude’s contract is AT LEAST $10 million “in the money”
-Lowe has 3/$45 left. Wolf got a 3/$30 contract. You really would rather have Lowe than Wolf? Yikes…
Matt, as a fellow libertarian you certainly know about the opportunity cost of an investment brother!!!
by YouthofToday on Dec 14, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions
Not a fair deal
Lowe is probably 10-15 million overpaid over what’s left of his contract. Rivera is a huge bargain at only 4 million a year. There’s no way you can trade them even up.
But add Matthews and it works. By ridding ourselves of GMJr, and throwing in 10 million, we’d effectively be paying 32 million for a 3 years of an innings eater. The Braves would be paying 21 million of 2 years of a 25 homer, 85 RBI outfielder and can use Matthews off the bench or release him.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
by RallyMonkey5 on Dec 14, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions
Math 101
No, it doesn’t work.
To replace Rivera in the lineup would cost at least $10 million above what we already have Rivera under contract for the next two years. You have to add that to the opportunity cost of Lowe under your unadviseable proposition, in addition to Rivera’s current contract.
The reality behind your rather horrific trade proposal, nothing personal of course!
-We save a grand total of $1.5 million in future guaranteed salary ($24 million (Sarge) + $9.5 million (Rivera) + $10 million = 43.5 million.
-We still need to sign a 25+ HR hitter to play LF. This is going to cost at least 2/$20, if not more.
How, exactly, does this help us?
by YouthofToday on Dec 14, 2009 11:08 PM PST up reply actions
You're close, but
we currently need to replace Lackey’s production, too. And that’s going to cost money. One way or another, we’re going to end up ponying up some cash right now
We can:
A) Simply add a FA pitcher, although the troops are thinning, and the choices aren’t that great. (Washburn, Marquis, Garland, Davis et al)
B) Make a revenue neutral trade with somebody like Atlanta, and add salary via a FA outfielder.
C) Do nothing and hope Sean or Matt is ready for the full-time gig.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 AM PST up reply actions
Dude is old
Old players decline. Dude is declining. Old players who are declining should not be paid $45MM for three years by the Angels.
I wouldn’t bet against freaking Matt Palmer being more productive over the next three years than Derek Lowe.
Eh.
Maybe, but eh.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
Given that the first part was already rumored...
…on the MLB Trade Rumors site an hour ago, I’d say this is less a far-out prediction than the consensus estimate.
Of course that was just Morosi and Rosenthal speculating, but may the monkey god forbid that the Angels do both things. Lowe is getting paid nearly what Boston is going to pay Lackey, and he turns 37 this June. Bay is going to cost us ridiculous cash and at least five years, and we just signed Godzilla to the position Bay should play (none).
Ooooh, this would be some black magic over our graves if this came to pass.
I have no inside information, just talking, but I think the two moves together are unrealistic. The Angels keep saying that they won’t raise payroll, which only leaves $5.5 million to spend. Dump Rivera and get Lowe and that pushes them a ways over, and still in need of an Oliver replacement and a DH (unless its Napoli) or an OF (unless its GMJ or a prospect). Wouldn’t surprise me if they’d increase payroll a bit — I’m totally prepared for a Rivera/Lowe swap, especially now — but Lowe AND Bay increases payroll by $20 million.
Saving countless runs with my defense.
I thought Matsui...
was the DH they were looking for. No?
Peanuts...Get your Overpriced Peanuts!
by Angel Hawker on Dec 14, 2009 7:14 PM PST up reply actions
Right, that’s why they would need an OF. If they decided to play Matsui in left (which they shouldn’t), they’d need a DH. Just one or the other, whichever Matsui isn’t doing.
Saving countless runs with my defense.
by Sam Miller OCR on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions
Rivera for Lowe AND THEN...
GMJ for Milton Bradley.
Come on you love it love it love it love it love it love it love it love it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Absolutely NOT!!!
That cannot be seriously considered by Reagins. Rivera has 2/$9.5 left, Lowe 3/$45. Rivera’s offensive production, according to FanGraphs, was worth $15.5 million last year. While I certainly don’t think he would get that much on an annual basis if he were a FA this year, it is impossible to argue that his contract is not incredibly club friendly. Lowe, meanwhile, has 3/$45 left as a 36 year pitcher coming off a brutal 2nd half. If Wolf got 3/nearly $30, Lowe would be lucky to get a 3/$24 deal.
Rivera for Lowe should be laughing dismissed by the Reagins. Rivera/Sarge for Lowe? Still no, here’s why:
* Rivera would probably get at least a 3/$27 deal if he were FA ($9 mill a year). Rivera’s contract is $9 million in the money
* Sarge’s contract is a complete sunk cost. 2/$23.
* Lowe contract is $20 million above current market cost.
by YouthofToday on Dec 14, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
killer screename....
and logical comments. Holy shit we got a winner.
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Dec 14, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
I like the Milton Bradley for GMJ part
With GMJ, the Angels are getting nothing (or little) for their money. With Bradley, there’s the possibility of getting some value. If Bradley doesn’t work out…cut him. It’s not like the Angels didn’t consider cutting Matthews.
It’s a low risk, high reward situation.
Uh, in order to get something out of a player you have to actually let him play.
When half the team was on the DL, GMJ played pretty well.
THIS… IS… ANAHEIM!!
It would make for interesting times.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
Trade Rivera, Napoli, and a prospect
for Matt Cain of SF(Derek Lowe is terrible)
Sign Bay
9 Gold Gloves and counting...
by Gold Glove Hunter 48 on Dec 14, 2009 7:14 PM PST reply actions
Aybar
Abreu
Hunter
Bay
Morales
Matsui
Kendrick
Wood
Mathis
9 Gold Gloves and counting...
by Gold Glove Hunter 48 on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions
Trade Mathis instead of Napoli
And I’m game. We just lost Lackey, Figgins, and Vlad. I can’t deal with the idea of losing the Napster too.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
by RallyMonkey5 on Dec 14, 2009 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
Matt Cain?
C’mon man….
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Dec 14, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
Pretty sure this is gonna happen.
The time is out of joint; oh cursed spite, that ever I was born to set it right.
by chairmanofthebar on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST reply actions
We are a better team with Rivera than with Lowe
Bad deal. Unless the trade is GMJ for Lowe straight up with the Braves paying part of Lowe’s salary than it doesn’t make sense.
by ryanfea on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Yeah...
cause THAT will happen.
Peanuts...Get your Overpriced Peanuts!
by Angel Hawker on Dec 14, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions
I never said it would
It just doesn’t make sense for the Angels to acquire Lowe without getting rid of money.
I know you didn't say that...
I fully understood your comment in a pipe dream kind of sense. I was just reiterating that it was a pipe dream.
Peanuts...Get your Overpriced Peanuts!
by Angel Hawker on Dec 14, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
That's not going to happen.
But you’re right about Juan. He delivered more value than Lowe last season:
Rivera 3.4 WAR
Lowe 2.7 WAR
And with the signing of Matsui, we’re going to need some outfield defense….somewhere. Hunter’s defense is overrated and in decline (Gold Gloves bedamned), and Abreu is a black hole in right field. Add Bay to that mix, and we might find ourselves with the worst OF defense in the League, just at the point in groundballer Lowe’s career when he begins to give up more line drives and fly balls…to combine with Weaver, Santana, and Kazmir…all pitchers with flyball tendencies.
Hunter's defense may be overrated,
but that does not mean that Hunter’s D is anything to laugh at. It just means that the hype is humongous. His glove actually did win the team some games last year.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
I thought the exact same thing earlier today
Lowe has a career ERA+ of 117 including an ERA+ of 128 just the season before last. Yes, he struggled in Atlanta; supposedly, he had a flaw in his delivery which he has since corrected in the offseason (sorry, no link).
I lineup of Abreu, Torii, Bay, Matsui, Morales, Napoli, Kendrick, Wood etc etc would definitely put points on the board.
Besides, we need Carolynn Hughes back….
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
$$$
So the Angels add nearly $100 in future payroll? ($45 million to Lowe – $9.5 to Rivera = $35.5 million) + at least $66 million with Bay.
There are so many better ways to allocate limited financial resources…
by YouthofToday on Dec 14, 2009 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
Why would anyone evaluate a 37-yr-old pitcher by career ERA?
Under that benchmark, might as well just sign Pedro for less.
Derek Lowe lives and dies with his groundballs and a modicum of control. He saw career lows in both last season. And his last two years in the AL weren’t much better than last season in the NL.
It’s not a one year experiment…it’s three long years. Too much money for too many years for too little value.
Good point about the career ERA
So we’ll just list his last four years ERA+
2006 = 124
2007 = 114
2008 = 129
2009 = 88
The trick is…which ones matter? One can’t ignore the most recent. However, one cannot ignore what happened just prior, either.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Dec 14, 2009 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
Age...
Dude is going to be 36. You honestly cannot expect him to suddenly match those numbers — all from pitching in the NL — in the AL next year. Right?
by YouthofToday on Dec 14, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
YOU or I may not think so
But Bill James has him pegged for a 4.01 ERA next year. Again, last year may have been reality. Or it may have been a mirage caused by poor mechanics.
And, to make your case further, he’s going to be 37 years old next year, not 36. I’m just not completely sold that a guy who put up very, very good numbers, who is otherwise healthy despite his age, suddenly fell off a cliff. Last year simply did not fit his previous trend.
You may be right. But the statistical probability is against your thinking. At least that’s what Bill James says.
Look, I don’t have a hard-on for Derek Lowe. And, no, I don’t think he’s worth $15MM. But I DO believe he can still give a team 200+ IP and an ERA around 4.00. Which is better production than a lot of the other alternatives right now. If Atlanta eats some salary (which they are rumored to be willing to do), then I think it’s a worthwhile move.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Dec 15, 2009 1:58 AM PST up reply actions
Wow, why overpay for a fading Lowe, who by the way will now be pitching in the AMERICAN LEAGUE.
3 years 45 million? Crazy.
To TRADE for that in order to make up for not signing lackey would just show me how ass-backwards the FO is.
Mid-1990s, hello!
Or 2000—Kent Bottenfield, anyone?
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
You do realize that Rivera's involvement was pure speculation on MLBTR right?
There is no proof that this is actually going down.
It would be a terrible move. The only smart one would be GMJ for Lowe straight up with Atlanta eating some cash and call it a day.
People and some of their ideas make me giggle.
"Well make more fuckin' money. This is America. You don't make money, then you're a fuckin' douchebag." - Mr French "The Departed"
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter
Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
Wasn't Rosenthal one of the people doing the speculation?
Rosenthal is full of shit.
THIS… IS… ANAHEIM!!
Yes, Rosenthal and Morosi were the ones speculating
I wonder if Rosenthal is old English for “speculation”?
Morosi I’m fairly certain is Italian or something for bullshit, kind of like Mallarkey is for slang.
"Well make more fuckin' money. This is America. You don't make money, then you're a fuckin' douchebag." - Mr French "The Departed"
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter
Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Dec 14, 2009 10:34 PM PST up reply actions
Not happening...
He’s another “East Coast fo’ life” sonuvabitch…
Matthews and Rivera for Lowe
might be reasonable, but I still wouldn’t do it.
GMJ is down to two years on that deal, Lowe is 3 years at a much higher AAV. The last thing I want is for the Angels to dig themselves a deeper hole.
Keep Rivera, dump GMJ whatever it takes. I’d add Ryan Church and a good bullpen arm, and then relax. If the team needs a starter when May wraps up, then they can go out and get one. No need to panic because the last 24 hours featured a swift kick to the nads. Keep your financial flexibility, re-stock the farm, and be ready when a big piece becomes available. Don’t worry so much.
In any case, I’m not buying the Lackey rumor completely. It reads to me like a desperate effort to get he Angels to up their deal. I might be wrong, but I’m not cursing Lackey just yet.
dude it's all over the news...
let him go…
The only thing over the news
are “reports” that Lackey will sign in Boston. Until he does, I’m not sold. If Boston had a deal in place, it would have been officially announced after today’s physical.
by Rusty Carew on Dec 14, 2009 10:11 PM PST up reply actions
I see Bay going to Seattle
Which would make a hell of an offseason for the Mariners. They could pick up Lee, Figgins and Bay. I think 2010 is going to be tough for the Angels. But hopefully we’ll have the resources to reload next offseason and we can once again seperate ourselves from the rest of the division.
OK, I'm finally over losing Tex. Thanks Kendry.
It was actually only 5/80, according to the latest report
And we could compete with that. Maybe the lesson last year was not, “no dealing with Boras,” but, “if you have to deal with Boras, act like the Yanks.” With power, good athleticism, no real platoon split, and a great contact rate, Holiday’s the best long term replacement for Vlad’s production out there. I know folks like what’s coming down the free agent pipeline in 2011, but it seems to me not one of those guys, except for Crawford, who might stay with the Rays, fits the Angels’ offense as well as Holiday.
Ya, this could be doable.
I’m not convinced that Arte is completely unwilling to deal with Boras.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
- Shane Victorino lands role on ‘Hawaii Five-0′
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
