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Carlos Silva going to the Cubbies in return for a headcase! Bradley will effectively dismantle the M's clubhouse.

about 2 years ago Tiny Kyman 214 comments 0 recs  | 

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Hmm

I wonder if we can get the Cubs to take GMJ now to play CF if they give us a reliever or prospect we pay half his salary. What’s GMJ owed, like 22 million for the next two years? If we pay 11 of that and the Cubs pay 11, that’s not really that bad of a deal for them. They’d basically be paying around $5.5 mil or so per season for two years of GMJ. For a speedy guy who is a plus defender, capable of hitting at the top or bottom of the order, and decent with RISP, that’s a good deal.

If we could get that and a reliever or prospect, I say we jump on it. Then go sign a #5 starter and D.O. and call it a Winter.

The Mariners still need another bat or two to be a big threat. And for all we know Bradley will just sabotage them like everywhere else he’s been.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 10:42 AM PST reply actions  

except Hideki Matsui just signed for 6.5 mil

So 5.5 for Gary makes 0 sense. Basically they’d want to just give silva to us for Gary which makes no sense.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by ihearhowie2.0 on Dec 18, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Matsui can't play the outfield or run well

GMJ can do both of those things at an above average level.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah but that whole "Hitting Worth a Shit" thing

GMJ does not have.

Also:
GMJ’s defense is not on an “above average level”. His total UZR for the OF was a grim -.14.5.

You standards of average must be pretty low if you consider a negative score of fourteen above average.

Also if you consider 4 stolen bases above average speed, then, well I cant help you.

He also got caught once, making his CS% a subpar 75%.

But, you know, thanks for posting and all.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=153&position=OF

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

I think you mean 25%... and a sample size of 4 only means he didn't play much.

GMJ has some skills, the Cubs would benefit from having him more than we would, though we might have to eat more of his salary. Consider a Sunk Cost analysis though and it would be better to pay $15 million of the salary over the next two years and get a couple of halfway decent players from the deal that’s probably better than paying him $22 million for 2 years of GMJ on the bench.

It does add value having him on the bench as we saw when Torii went down last year, but probably not $7 million + 2 players worth of value to the Angels. Easily worth that to the Cubs.

For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid

by AlanFalcon on Dec 18, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions  

So, you're basing your decision off less than half a season

In which he spent most of his time pinch hitting or subbing late in games? A season in which he appeared in only 103 games with 316 PAs? Please explain that.

Using your own link, his last full season (2007) he hit .252, with 72 RBI, 18 SB, and 4 CS (81% success rate). That’s not great but that couple with his good defense is worth 5-6 mil a year if the Cubs want it.

But you didn’t think before posting did you?

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

2007 is a long time ago

If we want to base trades and signings on three seasons ago I think we should go after Mike Lowell

I mean he should hit .324 again because, you know, 2007 stats have a lot to do with 2010.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

You missed the part about "full season"

He played about half-time in 08 and 09 because Torii Hunter was and still is blocking him.

What’s your alternative, keep him on the bench for $22 million?

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep

We are going to have to eat that money anyway, even in a trade.

Either way we are paying that contract, may as well have a somewhat decent 4th OF when one goes down this year. Matsui sure wont be out there.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:26 PM PST up reply actions  

That's what our system is for

Why have guys like Pettit (sp?) and Bourjos, et al if you aren’t going to trade them or eventually use them?

Even if we only get a little bit of GMJ’s salary back it will benefit us next Winter and benefit his career and likely the team he goes to. Chicago certainly could use him.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

But he still isn't very good defensively.

His good defense rep was made off of one phenomenal catch.

However, if he could get between 500-600 ABs, he’d probably put up numbers similar to what he did in 2007, but there is no reason for the Angels to be the team to give him so many ABs…er, short of that horrid contract.

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Dec 18, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

The only plausible deal for GMJ: "Your team take him and we return your mother unharmed"

Though I could picture the other GM rubbing his chin as he looks over GMJ’s contract and saying “Hmmm, well you know, my mom has lived a good life and was pretty old anyway…”

by Hoppity Hooper on Dec 18, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

HAHA i love this...........
“Your team take him and we return your mother unharmed”

Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 18, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Yo mamma so fat....

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 18, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

How fat is she?...

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Best news all day.

Seattle is a prime target for Hasbro to unleash his baseless claims of racism.

Good luck with that, Honkeytown!

What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.

by clover_black on Dec 18, 2009 10:53 AM PST reply actions  

You mean Chutes & Ladders?

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Yep. The explosion will be fun to watch in a Schaudenfreude kind of way...

And it will come. Make no mistake about it. It’s inevitable.

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 18, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Yup, so glad we didn't try to pick him up.

For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid

by AlanFalcon on Dec 18, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions  

ROFL

I havent laughed so hard at a post in so long.

Bravo sir, Bravo.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Another absurdly lopsided trade in favor of the Ms

Silva is a 0 WAR pitcher. MB should be a 2 or 3 WAR player for the Ms.
Is Jack Z blackmailing opposing GMs?

by Fan Since 1981 on Dec 18, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm as amazed as you are.

I, for one, had my doubts when the M’s hired Jack. He’s completely washed them away over the course of a year. He’s made sterling deal and sterling deal, starting with the Putz deal and continuing with getting Lee for nearly nothing and trading a useless-to-the-M’s Carlos Silva for a useful-if-he-behaves Milton Bradley. Pretty amazing.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Dec 18, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Dumping Yuniesky Betancourt on the hapless Royals was another crafty move.

Although I get the sense I could dupe Dayton Moore into giving me a new Ferrari in return for a rusty 1976 Chrysler Cordoba.

by Fan Since 1981 on Dec 18, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, but does the Ferrari have Rich Corinthian Leather?

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 18, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

That's the car I rented for my senior prom.

But I never did get a chance to try the rich corinthian leater in the back seat…must have been that not-so-suave Ricardo Mantalban accent I kept trying on my date (how do they roll their r’s so well???).

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

If the accent fails, proceed with Plan B.

Play “Love to Love You, Baby” on the 8-track player.

by Fan Since 1981 on Dec 18, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

My plan "B" was to sing Barry White's...

…“Can’t Get Enough of Your Love, Babe”. Unfortunately, I’m baritone-challenged…and a bit too pale to pull that off.

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

My dad had one of those

He thought he was a bad mutherf…
Shut your mouth.
I’m just talkin’ bout Dad.

by WiHaloFan on Dec 18, 2009 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

You know, numbers don't mean everything.

Bradley was going to be gone one way or another… for the Cubs here it’s about maximizing the return, not trying in vain to find an equal trade.

For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid

by AlanFalcon on Dec 18, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Silva was hurt almost entirely last year. Predicting his 2010 WAR is tricky, but I’d put it at around 1 WAR and I’d put Bradley’s at 2 WAR. Silva will be replaced by another 1 WAR pitcher, so no loss there. Bradley replaces at most a 1 WAR rookie LFer. But at what cost to a “happy” workplace?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

MB has had success in the AL West.

Solid stats in ‘06 with Oakland, and in ’08 with Texas and that ridiculous .436 OBP. Granted, it is a huge “IF”, but IF he behaves, the M’s just made a killer deal.

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Dec 18, 2009 11:28 AM PST reply actions  

Exactly.

Everybody’s trying to play up the attitude issues, but ignoring the obvious: Seattle just traded a steaming heap of garbage — one of the worst pitchers in baseball by almost any measure — for a reasonable strong defensive outfielder who delivered this slash line 2007-2009:

.293 avg .407 obp .495 slg .902 ops

If he has attitude problems, the M’s can just dump him. But if he plays nice, this is a big boost for their club.

by Turks Teeth on Dec 18, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I dont think he'll play much LF. That would jeopordize his health. He should DH the majority of

games. There is little need to play him in LF when the alternative is DHing Griffey. Seattle is much better off with the young kid Saunders in LF and Bradley at DH. If the M’s had a big right handed bat on the bench or another good DH, then Bradley in LF would make more sense. At this point, they don’t have that, so why jeopordize Bradley’s health by playing him in the outfield?

by Rudy4three on Dec 18, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with Turks this time

I think the chemistry issue has been overstated by scaredy cat white kids.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Riiiight..

it has nothing to do with being on 8 teams in 10 seasons. It must be whitey holding the man down.

by shiftyeyedgoat on Dec 18, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with Turks and the Rev this time

Chemistry is WAY overrated by fans who grow tired of analyzing far more important factors, such as performance stats.

by yeswecan on Dec 18, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

chemistery certainly seems to be important to our manager of the year

and our owner. Oh how stupid they both must be

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Dec 18, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

only when it outweighs the value of performance

Guillen was ousted at the end of the regular season.

by yeswecan on Dec 18, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Agree completely.

Aside from your comment that he is a “reasonable strong defensive outfielder” you are spot on.

He is a poor defensive player, but a great hitter. The M’s should pencil him in at DH and let him post a .880 OPS.

Now the M’s are starting to worry me a bit – their new GM is the goods – flat out.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Dec 18, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess I'm remembering his defense '06-'08.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=369&position=OF#fielding

He wasn’t that great last season, I guess. I didn’t see many Cubs games. But I remember him being reasonably good for Oakland and Texas.

by Turks Teeth on Dec 18, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, good call...

I looked him up after this post and he was defense neutral last year which is better than I thought.

I expect, though, that he will DH quite a bit to keep him healthy, but he wasn’t awful last year – just “eh”.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Dec 18, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Why is everyone giving the Mariners players for free?

Three prospects no one has ever heard of and Carlos Silva for Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley.

by Suboptimal on Dec 18, 2009 11:53 AM PST reply actions  

I made my comment tongue-in-cheek.

There is little doubt Jack Z. is very effective.

by wumbug on Dec 18, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Cool -- my comment was more generally directed.

Not saying you in particular are making excuses for mediocre GM’ing, btw. Just saying that our own GM seems less-than-innovative and not very trade-savvy, yet a fair amount of the Halosphere seems to think he can do no wrong.

I hope our draft picks compensate, and two years of positive drafts fortify our farm for the 2012-2015 seasons ahead.

by Turks Teeth on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed.

I made a comment about that awhile back, and all I got in return was a bunch of nonsensical “ninja” responses.

What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.

by clover_black on Dec 18, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think the League is tired/scared of us.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions  

PROSPECTS no one has ever heard of

HA HA HA HA hahahahahaha… those are the same guys Reagins could not trade to Philly for Halladay … nobody outside a hundred baseball nerds on the internet and thirty scouts have heard of our prospects.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

riddle me this Rev

why can Seattle get rid of crap players, but the Angels cannot trade their prospects. Oh, never mind, our prospects have less upside than Seattle’s crap MLB’ers.

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Dec 18, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

good question

Seattle did not get rid of crap players.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not so sure...

Cliff Lee is a one year rental, if the M’s don’t win the division this year those three prospects were tossed for nothing…

Milton for Silva + cash. OK Silva is money wasted and Milton may be worth somthing but the M’s took on an additional 6 mil in contract obligations so they’re not getting something for nothing in this case either…

 “According to sources familiar with the deal, the Mariners will send a total of $9 million to the Cubs in the deal, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reported. Of that amount, $3 million is to even out the difference between Silva’s salary in 2010 and Bradley’s salary. The other $6 million constitutes payroll relief for the Cubs and will be paid out in over 2010 and 2011.”

by Jietoh on Dec 18, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

The M's ownership have deep pockets

It’s premature to be convinced that they could not / would not resign Lee. If he’s true to his word, he’ll test the FA waters, but the M’s still could lock him up as a FA. If he walks, they get the lovely parting gifts: multiple draft picks (the kind of stocking stuffer the “GM formally known as the Ninja” seems to cherish….)

by mustard_man on Dec 18, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

what is the difference between "deep pockets" and "big market teams"????

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Dec 18, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Attendance revenue

The Mariners derive significant revenue from retransmission of their games in Japan. That was the reason to re-sign Kenji even though he wasn’t exactly setting the AL on fire.

The Mariners averaged 27,000/game, versus the Angels’ 40,000/game. But the TV revenue received by the Mariners is greater than what the Angels get.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 18, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Not any more...

"Sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

by LAASurfin on Dec 18, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

i thought mlb pooled international broadcast revenues

are you SURE of this revenue stream?

And they re-signed Kenji as a favor on the assumption they might be selling the team but profits chanegd and instead he opted out of the contract to return to Japan.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 5:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, you're right

The Japanese TV deal is with MLB, not the Mariners, and all teams share equally. That deal ended this season, by the way, and I have no idea if a new contract goes into place next season.

The Japan link, though, means Japanese advertisers purchased signage in Safeco on the sites visible in camera shots, as happened in Yankee Stadium for Matsui. This enhanced the revenue for the team, which shares that ad revenue with the state agency which owns Safeco.

As to the reason to re-sign Kenji, I suspect it has to do with his continuing popularity in Japan. He didn’t seem all that happy here, especially with the growing friction between the pitchers and Johjima which had guys like Felix in the managers office, complaining about Johjima’s game-calling.

Presumably, the Angels figure they can sell some visual real estate in the same way.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 18, 2009 10:40 PM PST up reply actions  

If the M's are out of it in July

They’ll get three prospects back when they trade Lee.

Good gamble.

by WiHaloFan on Dec 18, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Just when you thought the M's have righted the course of this historically

pathetic ballclub, they go out and obtain a true saboteur. The human A-Bomb Bradley is the best thing we have in ensuring our stranglehold on 1st in the West.

Thanks for the memories, John Lackey .............. now go fuck yourself!

by PieceOfAase on Dec 18, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions  

Well, who knows?

Things in Seattle could go either way with the addition of MBradley.

You’ve got to admit that their GM “Z” is bold.

The fact that Tampa Bay’s ’band of thugs" was actively trying to trade for Bradley says something positive about his talent and possible effectivness.

by wumbug on Dec 18, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions  

This is such an ignorant comment

You know what…I will grant all of you idiots saying Bradley will hurt the M’s your argument. Let’s say he makes everyone in the clubhouse hate each other, starts calling the fans names etc. I still don’t understand how that negatively impacts their performance on the field. If Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley hate the living guts out of each other, you really think that is going to make either of them perform worse? You guys remember the 2002 Giants? Horrible clubhouse atmosphere divided btw. two mortal enemies in Kent and Bonds. If Spiezio doesn’t hit that Hr, they are still champs.

The second thing I will say is that Milton Bradley has never ruined a clubhouse. His teammates usually like him. Bottom line is, if the Cubs were willing to take Silva, I bet they would have taken GMJ, and it pisses me off that the Mariners stole him instead of us.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes.

Bottom line is, if the Cubs were willing to take Silva, I bet they would have taken GMJ, and it pisses me off that the Mariners stole him instead of us.

And then we could have traded MBradley to Tampa Bay for something (anything) with some value.

by wumbug on Dec 18, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Ummmm...no
"Bottom line is, if the Cubs were willing to take Silva, I bet they would have taken GMJ, and it pisses me off that the Mariners stole him instead of us."

And then we could have traded MBradley to Tampa Bay for something (anything) with some value.

This misses all the current events surrounding the attempt to trade Bradley, which are significant because Hendry had already determined that Bradley would not be wearing a Cub uniform come April 1—thus, we have a motivated seller.

The Rays kept trying to swap Burrell and some Cub money for Bradley, but the Cubs didn’t want Burrell. In order for the Angels to make that deal, WE’D have to take Burrell in trade—after all, the Rays aren’t looking to take on additional payroll. Just as with Silva, this would have to be a flop swap. We don’t want Burrell any more than we would want Silva.

If we wind up trading Matthews to Chicago then flipping Bradley plus cash, we might as well either keep Matthews or eat his contract rather than go through all these efforts.

Key to all of this hand-wringing about why WE didn’t go after Bradley is that nobody wants him. The Rangers wanted him if the Cubs ate most of his deal, the Rays wanted him instead of Burrell (plus cash). The Giants won’t go near him. Other offensively-challenged teams passed, or they weren’t willing to assume that financial obligation given the risk which goes with it.

Besides having a damn surly attitude and the ability to see racists in a Ba’Hai temple, Bradley is very fragile and is frequently injured. While he has enormous skills, he has an equally enormous downside, and there is no reason to believe Good Milton would be the only one of the twins who comes out to play if he were traded to Anaheim.

This is a wash for Seattle, unless Bad Milton shows up. In that case, he may wind up being released. I don’t think the Mariners will take it for long, and they may think that eating the remainder of the contract is preferable to disciplining Bradley.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 18, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions  

"...it pisses me off that the Mariners stole him instead of us".

Stole him? Angel management ddn’t show interest because he’s such a bonafide JERK. Angel management wouldn’t try to “steal” a player with Bradlley’s well documented track record of disruptive behavior. It took less than 1/2 season for him to wear out his welcome in Chicago. If he’s so lovable, why is he going to his 6th team in 7 years?
The Angels don’t want him because Jose (soild hitter/all-star bitcher) Guillen was more than enough assholiness for a decade or two.
And calling those that don’t want him “idiots” and characterizing them as “ignorant”? Well in this case, I will be happy to stand with Scioscia/Moreno/Reagins in being an “ignorant idiot”. In the meantime, I will be watching to see how long it takes for Bradley to wear out his welcome in Seattle and is back on the trading block. I’ll put my bet on one season or less. Care to make a bet?

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I didn't call Scioscia/Moreno/Reagins idiots

I’m very happy with all of them. I am saying that if you think this was a bad deal for the M’s, you are an idiot. And I’ll stand by that claim.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I’ll take your word that you don’t believe Angel management are idiots.

But, there seems to be a logical disconnect between saying you are "…happy with…" Scioscia/Moreno/Reagins while at the same time stating that the Mariners were allowed to "steal" Bradley…right in front of their eyes.

To your assessment that you’re an "idiot" if you don’t think this was a good move for the Mariners…NOBODY will know for certain if it’s a good deal (for the Mariners) until a future date when impact can be assessed.

For now, it APPEARS to be a better deal for the Mariners;
- IF Bradley hits somewhere around his career averages.
- IF his offensive/defensive stats aren’t overshadowed by his "team turmoil" batting average.
- IF Carlos Silva picks up in 2010 where he left off in 2008.

That’s a lot of "if’s" and one where I wouldn’t declare all others are "idiots" for not seeing it as crystal clear as you.

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

You're right

I’ll back off that claim. Nonetheless, I thought the original post that the M’s signing Bradley was “ensuring our stranglehold on 1st in the West” was idiotic and ignorant. It got me a little hotheaded and I probably overreacted. Your last post got it right. I’m just saying that right now, it definitely looks like a good deal.

I’m also not blaming this on Reagins at all. I have no complaints about the guy. I’m just saying I think the M’s GM is really good too. Reagins still has time to make this a good offseason.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't get this
NOBODY will know for certain if it’s a good deal (for the Mariners) until a future date when impact can be assessed.

The options the M’s had were to hold onto Silva and get no value, release Silva and get no value, or trade and try and recoup some value. Bradley at least comes with upside, and it’s certainly enough upside to justify an extra 3 mil over two years. If he doesn’t work out they can just cut him and get no value out of the contract, which would have happened anyway if they had kept Silva.

Worst case scenario, the M’s are out 6 million bucks over two years. Big whoop.

by faceplant_04 on Dec 18, 2009 5:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah...

I mean…no one knows for certain that trading Chris Bootcheck for Albert Pujols is a good trade. That is only a good trade IF Albert Pujols stays healthy and productive and IF Bootcheck doesn’t re-discover whatever the hell he had that made him so coveted in the first place.

Obviously, Bradley for Silva is a little less clear cut than that, but why do we even talk if we are always going to have to bow down to this argument?

You can always say, “let’s just wait and see what happens.” And what the hell is a team turmoil batting average? Is that something I should know or a meaningless term you just pulled out?

The point is that clearly, the trade is one-sided on paper right now.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 7:28 PM PST up reply actions  

You don't get this?

The difference is what you think may occur versus what actually happens. Many times, they don’t bear any resemblance to one another. Your scenarios above assume Silva will remain a slug. You are probably correct in your assumption. But you could also end up flat wrong.

He may regain the form he had from 2004-2007 when he was a decent 3rd or 4th SP for the Twins, and give the Cubs 2-3 decent years. Bradley could get injured, take a final walk off the deep end, and end up being of no benefit to the Mariners. Who then would have by far the best result of this trade?

Now I understand my scenario above is not likely, especially the part of Silva regaining some semblance of a decent pitcher. But this scenario is possible, right?

So you can correctly think for now think (as as I agreed above) that this appears to be a better deal for the Mariners. But – unless you can forecast the future with ultimate precision – you can’t possibly assess which team “won” this trade until time (1-5 years?) has passed.

It’s as different as the present is from the future, which many times is greater that the difference from day to night.

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions  

No I don't get it
He may regain the form he had from 2004-2007 when he was a decent 3rd or 4th SP for the Twins, and give the Cubs 2-3 decent years. Bradley could get injured, take a final walk off the deep end, and end up being of no benefit to the Mariners. Who then would have by far the best result of this trade?

You base your assessment of a trade on what the most likely outcome is, not what could happen is some bizarro universe. A healthy Silva is worse than a healthy Bradley. By a lot.

The Mariners weren’t going to carry Carlos Silva on the roster. He was likely to be released before the start of the season. Looking at it in that context, then it’s pretty clear it’s a no risk move.

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 12:24 AM PST up reply actions  

OK.

So applying your correction from above, we can look at another trade by the Mariners. The “most likely outcome of the trade” was that the M’s would get a solid #2 SP in exchange for prospects, solidify their rotation, and make them strong contenders to win the western division (much like we are hearing today with their acquisitions of Figgins and Bradley).
Now that almost 2 years have passed, how does that trade of Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio asses in your judgement? Does it match the speculation at the time as “the most likely outcome” of the trade, or does it appear the M’s got hosed?
Do you see the difference? Present vs. unknown future events? Speculation vs. actual results?

by sothball on Dec 19, 2009 8:03 AM PST up reply actions  

The most likely outcome of the Bedard trade

was that the Orioles were going to get a boatload of great players, and that Bedard was probably going to miss significant time to injury like he always had, while playing for a team that wasn’t a real playoff contender.

Seriously, knowledgable Mariners fans hated that trade when it went down.

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Really?

The Mariners were going to release Silva and eat $13.5M in the process?

You have sources for this info, or just a gut hunch?

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 19, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions  

And can you please tell me...

How Bradley will SUBSTANTIVELY hurt that team? The only way is if his actual on-field performance declines from last year. If you want to make that argument, I won’t have any bones to pick even though I don’ think it’s likely.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

As I wrote above, I don’t try to predict the future…to many surprises.

…so I wouldn’t claim he will/will not hurt the Mariners, SUBSTANTIVELY or otherwise.

I can look back to the past quite easily though and see – like Guillen – he is a solid hitter with SUBSTANTIVE personality issues;
 - Like getting in a shouting match with his Cubs batting coach that led to his suspension last year.
 - Like calling Cub fans racist. And just so you think he hasn’t pulled this card before…
 - Like accusing Jeff Kent of racism when both were members of the Dodgers.

I could go on and on like this for a couple of pages. He somehow manages to find trouble with teammates, fans, or managers. Is he really treated that different from others? Or is it peculiar to his perceptions? I vote for his peculiar perceptions.

And I ask again;
- If he’s such a great teammate, if he’s really attempting to put team above self, why is this his 6th team in 7 years? My answer is his personality problems speak louder than his bat.
- How long before he’s traded by Seattle? I can’t predict, but I will make this bet based on track record…one year or less. What’s your bet?

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

You begged the question again

A person having substantive personal issues doesn’t necessarily substantively hurt the team (although you could reasonably argue that it hurt his performance in Chicago, he still was a decent hitter).

As far as 6 teams in 7 years, I would say injury problems have just as much to do with that than anything else. No one wants to commit to a player with injury problems= many short-term deals, which not only means you are an FA more, but also are easier to trade.

I will ask again, because no one has addressed this, did having Bonds and Kent on the same team hurt the Giants in 2002? Are Cliff Lee or Chone Figgins, or Franklin Gutierrez’ production going to be impacted if Bradley really is a cancer? How many teams with bad chemistry in baseball have ended up being really good teams? Chemistry is nice to have…It makes the game more fun and easier for fans to watch, but it doesn’t make a difference in baseball.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

agree

it might make a difference but it is one that is impossible to quantify.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions  

What I find most interesting is that I have now asked twice...

…how long before you believe Bradley will wear out his welcome in Seattle, and twice you have ignored or deferred a response. Which tells me you don’t have a great deal of confidence in your belief that he will help Seattle.

Bradley to Seattle could end up being the trade of the century for the Mariners. More than likely, he will end his 2010 season the way his stints ended with the Cubs, Rangers, Padres, A’s, Dodgers, Indians…a talented but troubled and/or often injured individual.

He’s the missing puzzle piece…for the wrong puzzle.

by sothball on Dec 18, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions  

You're right again

I agree with you. He might very well end up in Seattle for only a year because he’s hurt or maybe his temper gets the best of him. If his production that year helps turn around their team, it still will have been a great trade. Even if the M’s don’t make the playoffs, if he performs well enough, they can trade him for good players or keep him the next year.

This is the same reason adding Jose Guillen was GREAT for the Angels. He helped the team immensely that season and landed them Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis at the end of the year. Mind you, Guillen was VOTED OFF THE TEAM BY HIS OWN TEAMMATES. I guarantee you that will never happen to Bradley. Also, his frequent injuries are taken into account with short-term K’s for a lot less money than his stats say he’s worth.

Milton Bradley was an asset and value to all of those teams you mentioned except the Cubs. In fact, his attitude makes him UNDERVALUED if anything. The fact that he gets traded for a useless waste of space pitcher proves that.

I’m done trying to argue for him though. Like I said, I think it helps the M’s. Think he would have helped us, but we have other options, so it’s probably not a big deal. We’ve taken this too far. Until you can convince me that Bradley has hurt teams W-L records, I stand by my point because I think he’s helped them pretty much everywhere except Montreal (when he was 21/22 years old) and Chicago.

Just so you don’t misinterpret me again, I think Angels management top to bottom has been absolutely tremendous since Arte took over and Reagins has been phenomenal as well. Even this offseason, letting Vladdy go and signing Matsui was a tough move that helps the team and it’s hard to fault him for not re-signing Lackey or Figgins for the money they were given. Thought we missed an opportunity to unload GMJ and simultaneously acquire Bradley, but it’s small potatoes in the scheme of things. Whose to say the Cubs would have even wanted GMJ…All speculation on my part.

by Spird on Dec 19, 2009 12:11 AM PST up reply actions  

The problem

is that you are saying that Bradley can’t be counted on to produce like he has in the past, but he can be counted on to be a clubhouse problem.

By your own criteria you have no way of knowing that.

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 12:30 AM PST up reply actions  

You've been diligent about cutting/pasting from my previous posts.

Please cut/paste where I said anything close to “Bradley can’t be counted on to produce like he has in the past, but he can be counted on to be a clubhouse problem”. You can’t because it doesn’t exist…I never said anything of the sort.
What I have repeated several times is I don’t make predictions of future behavior. Bradley may find God, bulk up, shut his mouth, sharpen his skills and become the comeback player of the year for the Mariners. Or, he may sustain a career-ending injury the first week of the season and hobble off the field accusing the M’s trainer (or a teammate or fans or manager) of being a racist. Most likely, his time in Seattle will be somewhere in the middle of these 2 extremes.
So if I was to engage in speculation to the point of placing a bet, I’d bet the M’s will be looking to get rid of him a year from now. What’s your bet?

by sothball on Dec 19, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions  

and my final thought...

…I hope Bradley finds level of peace in his life. I don’t think its good for a guy to believe that he is surrounded by racists, or that the world is somehow against him.

by sothball on Dec 19, 2009 8:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Fair enough.

It just seems silly to me that you are saying that nobody can judge this trade based on what we think is the most likely outcome, but then you go ahead and say what you think is the most likely outcome.

What do I think is going to happen? Silva is likely to be slighly better in the NL due to league difficulty, and Bradley is likely to continue to display similar behavior that he has in the past, while still being productive

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions  

The Cubs had to get rid of him because he and the fans hated each other and Piniella

hated him.

Most of Bradley’s teammates usually like him, and Wakamatsu is a total different cat than Piniella. Furthermore, Seattle fans are as mellow as they come in regards to riding players. It’s not like he’s gonna be getting cussed at constantly like he was in Chicago

by Rudy4three on Dec 18, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

His Cub teammates didn't back him

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 18, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Seattle fans are as mellow as they come?

Go over to Lookout Landing and post a comment. You will see how mellow they are.

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Dec 18, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Referring to the fans in the stands

who like to sip politely and sit on their hands to stay warm. I think anyone who has been to a game in the last 6 years or so would agree with that assessment.

Now, if the fans at the stadium were all like the fans in the M’s blogosphere… :)

by Omerta on Dec 18, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I lived there for over a year

The fans sit and talk to each other not paying attention.

About 80% of the crowd noise you hear is generated by the stadium speakers.

The ONLY time they do anything is when someone hits a homerun and they all stand and rhythmically clap.

It is by far the most annoying, lazy fanbase.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 4:44 PM PST up reply actions  

what i LOVE about Safeco

is you can, as an opposing fan, talk ridiculous caca and be obnoxious and they all smile and ogle the exotic foreigner with ways different than their own.

It is Minnesota with rain instead of snow. You get away with being really rowdy if you are decked head to toe in your tea’s apparel. I went to a Mariners Angels game in 2004 with red PANTS and a jersey and stood to “wave goodbye” to Angels homers and half the Mariner fans around me were smiling and laughing at me like “wow you are a pretty funny character, guy.”

If wholesomeness offends you, you will be disgusted with a Safeco crowd.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Ha ha!

That is funny! Oh, Guerrero just hit a grand slam? Good for him!

These kinds of baseball fans exist

by .Taylor on Dec 18, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Heck, they sound almost like they're.... CANADIAN!!!!!

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 19, 2009 9:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, having visited Seattle this year...

And having attended a Halos game at Safeco, I’ve got to tell you that on both sides of me the Mariners fans were reading Parade magazine. Not that this is indicative of the entire fanbase, I’m just telling you what I saw with my own eyes.

I certainly didn’t become anyone’s new best friend that night, as I was witness to a Halos 10-0 victory, and not a single Mariners fan in my row stayed put past the 6th inning (and we’re talking decent $40 seats) but these people were freaking sedate.

Granted, Lookoutlanding the website entity is a weird, toxic cauldron of juvenile homophobia, but I don’t think any of those people actually go to games. Because not one M fan gave me shit or even a well-earned dirty look. The only people at Safeco that had the gaul to tell me they didn’t like me were the security patrol. Mind you, I want it understood I do not mean the general employees, as there were many at Safeco more than happy to talk to me about the idiosyncrasies and intricacies of their park, despite me wearing red – but the ushers? Oh, they had it out for me. My worst crime? Jockeying for a better seat. They descended on me.

In contrast, it’s a frivolous playground at the Big A. The ushers are not young, angry malcontents that hate everything like at Safeco – they’re seniors who probably wanted for some time to spend their golden years working at the ball park in the summer. When I’m at the Big A it’s the ushers who sit next to me in the unoccupied nice seats. And on more than one occasion I’ve seen an usher play along and bounce a beach ball with the crowd rather than confiscating it.

Damn it’s good to be an Angels fan.

"Death to the opposition!" - Commander Worf, First Baseman: The Niners

by Zoe Necrosis on Dec 18, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions  

M's fan here. The description is a bit innacurate.

I know for a fact lookoutlandingers go to tons of games (they even hold events that members of the Mariner front office come speak at), and they are most certainly not homophobic.

Other than that it’s a pretty accurate description. The Safeco Field masses tend to suck. A lot. They rarely cheer unless prompted by the scoreboard (or if Griffey or Ichiro is batting), and for the most part don’t engage in even mild ribbing of opposing fans.

And I can’t say much about Angels Stadium. I did take a tour when I was in Anaheim last January. The people that gave me the tour were a retired married couple, who were just about the friendliest people I’d ever met. They were nice enough to take a photo of me next to the your guys’ World Series Trophy. I joked that, being a Mariners fan, that was the closest I was ever going to get to a world series trophy!

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 12:41 AM PST up reply actions  

This made me laugh
I joked that, being a Mariners fan, that was the closest I was ever going to get to a world series trophy

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Dec 19, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions  

How's that head in the sand act holding up for you, Spird?

Will you say the same for Jose Guillen? You ought to change your username back to “Baghdad Bob.”

Thanks for the memories, John Lackey .............. now go fuck yourself!

by PieceOfAase on Dec 18, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Jose Guillen

Helped the team’s W-L record for the time he was here. Undisputable. And his teammates voted him off. When have Bradley’s teammates voted him off of a team?

Moreover, Jose Guillen also brought us Rivera and Izturis.

by Spird on Dec 18, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

It should also be mentioned

that Jose Guillen had no problems at all in the M’s clubhouse. Of course the team has had almost 100% turnover since then.

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 12:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Jason Bay

Has now lost all his suitors besides the Mets. If the Angels are going to make a move, now is the time.

by Suboptimal on Dec 18, 2009 12:05 PM PST reply actions  

We should offer the Mets Quinlan, GMJ, and Mathis

for Bay and we should ask for Granderson too, now that he is in New York!

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Good point.

For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid

by AlanFalcon on Dec 18, 2009 12:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Jason Bay would be a horrible signing for the Angels. Why overpay an old, poor defensive OF when you already have an old outfield?

There is a reason that Boston moved on from him and why the most poorly run organisation in the NL is making a play for him.

by EnglishMariner on Dec 18, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

The DH spot will be open in 2011 for his awesome bat.

Hes a clubhouse guy, clutch, and isnt that old.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

You want to pay a guy $65 Million to DH for you?

That’s not how to construct an effective roster.

by EnglishMariner on Dec 18, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

learn to smell sarcasm Blighty

it is the opposite of a fart with the same intent

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

So you want to have 2 overpaid outfielders not in the field for 2 more years

GMJ and Bay, with Bay being a DH?

$22 mil/remainder (GMJ) and $15mil/yr (Bay) through ‘11 = $52 million approximately. That’s not a wise investment for two bench players.

We need to at least get rid of GMJ and some of his money before we go signing other huge contracts.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

What's Jack Z's next heist?

Joe Mauer for Matt Tuiasosopo? “Due to stalled negotiations with their star, the Twins decided to…”

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Dec 18, 2009 12:14 PM PST reply actions  

We should offer the Twins Quinlan, GMJ, and Mathis

for Mauer.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

We can't offer Q. He's a FA.

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 18, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Shhhh.

what are you trying to do, spoil it.

Check out these games:

Multiplayer Baseball: http://www.mmobaseball.com/createaccount.aspx?ref=9687

Multiplayer Football: http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=16986650

by matthiasstephan on Dec 18, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Seattle gains another 1.0 to 1.5 wins here. It all adds up, but I don’t see this Mariner team as currently constructed as being the favorite to win the AL West. I will save those type of predictions for when both teams have their final 25 man rosters built.

The Mariners outplayed their pythagorean record. They finished the season at 85-77, but their pythag had them as a 76 win team.

Let’s see how much they’ve improved on their 2009 wins with their offseason moves.

1. Chone Figgins
Figgins – Beltre = + 0.5 wins

2. Cliff Lee
Lee – (Washburn + Bedard) = X
6 – (2 + 2) = +2.0 wins

3. Milton Bradley
Bradley – Branyan =
2.5 – 2.5 = +0 wins

So, from their three biggest moves they’ve gained around 2.5 wins off of a 76 win “true talent” team.

I understand that there are other small bits and piece moves (nothing substantial) and will be more moves made by both the Angels and Mariners, but I don’t see these moves making the Mariners the favorites to win the AL West. Sure, the gap may have narrowed but the off-season ain’t over yet.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 12:31 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

If there is one thing we all appreciate here

its the pythagorean record stat.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions  

If I recall correctly

the Angels have outplayed their “pythagorean record” the last five or six years.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Or if you ask Buster Olney

we’ve just been lucky the past five or six years

by ~MMP~ on Dec 18, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

gross

Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 18, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Soon to be joined by the Joe Buck-ARod 69 train

Thanks for the memories, John Lackey .............. now go fuck yourself!

by PieceOfAase on Dec 18, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Damn funny...

Only way to make it better, “Francona-Olney-Pedrioa manwich”.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Dec 18, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Ewww.... I need a shower after just reading that post.

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 18, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

That's not a sandwich ...

that’s a manwich!

2010: The year of Angels World Domination

by LazorkoRules on Dec 18, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Speaking of Buster Olney

If anyone heard him speaking on ESPN radio about the Lackey signing. He said something along the lines of “Now all WE need is to get Adrian Gonzales”. When did a reporter start referring to the Red Sox as WE.

And people in ESPN deny an east coast bias.

by Trott on Dec 19, 2009 12:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Didn't hear it,

but just the thought ticks me off.

by wumbug on Dec 19, 2009 4:28 AM PST up reply actions  

So,

I’ve heard. I will run the numbers using WAR estimates and filling in empty roster slots with what I feel is a reasonable value for both teams then report back. It may be that the pythag I quoted didn’t correctly estimate the Ms win totals. Cheers!
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Checked it out; seems reasonable

Was there by chance a similar WAR projection for the 2009 season?

by Fan Since 1981 on Dec 18, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I hit "post" too quickly

I think the Angels still need to add a 3 WAR starter and a 1 WAR relief pitcher before the start of the 2010 season.

by Fan Since 1981 on Dec 18, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

What is

the team baseline they use for replacement level wins? 40? 50?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Somewhere around 48, I believe.

I could be wrong.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Dec 18, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

My first swag results....

I only did Seattle and LA of A so far….

drum roll please….

Seattle
Hitters: 20.0
Pitchers: 17.9
Replacement: 48.0
Total: 85.9 Wins

Angels
Hitters: 22.75
Pitchers: 13.75
Replacement: 48.0
Total: 84.5 Wins

Keep in mind that hitters numbers include not only hitting value but also fielding value. Angels could get the biggest bang for their buck by getting a good starting pitcher (I guess that is kind of obvious at this point). Improvement could also be found at 3B and possibly an upgrade in the OF, but that would take a Jason Bay or Matt Holliday type of signing along with a trade somewhere along the way.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

To seperate from the Mariners,

it’s going to take a Matt Holliday signing combined with the trade of someone like Juan Rivera (freeing up LF) to Atlanta for Derek Lowe. This would add about 3.5 wins for adding Holliday and around 2.5 to 3.0 wins for adding Lowe, for about a 6+ win addition. This is really best case scenario and you know better than me if it’s likely or a pipe dream. A more moderate scenario would be to replace Holliday with Bay and you then only see a 4 win total addition (still incl the Lowe trade). There are other ways to skin this cat, just throwing out some of the more obvious ways. Whatever the case, the Angels definitely don’t want to let GMJ see the light of day.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

That's all well and good

Stats like WAR make for good discussion and ballpark estimates, but they don’t swing the bat, execute pitches, or make plays in any other way.

No offense to you, just sayin’.

The Angels have been predicted to finish in the high 80’s of wins the last couple of seasons and have finished in the 90’s or higher each time. I believe one analytical agency finally admitted they couldn’t quantifiy this and basically said “there’s something they do there in Anaheim, but we don’t know what it is exactly.” I don’t remember who it was but I know I saw it.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Well... they've

sent men to the moon based on statistical models and Monte Carlo simulations, so I will take my chances with those methods. Projections are made to be 100% accurate, they are made to give you a “most likely” outcome. There are always margins of errors involved with these things. There is always atleast one… “the game is played on the field not on computers” person on every blog. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 3:21 PM PST up reply actions  

typo

should read “Projections are NOT made…”
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I was going to say, I need to start making more projections then ;)

I’m definitely not saying they don’t have some merit, they just aren’t the be-all and end-all. Besides, it my understanding is correct, a player’s WAR can change if they improve or regress over a season. For all we know Weaver or Wood or somebody could go up in value.

If it was up to most projections and analysts, the Yankees would be projected to a World Title every year with the Red Sox sneaking one in every few decades.

I agree we need to make a move or two though. Pitching help of any kind should be priority, followed by moving GMJ.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Rangers and A's

I got (as it stands now).

Rangers: 83.3 WAR
A’s 77.25 WAR

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry to dissapoint you

but we actually play the season. It’s neat to post projections and what not but it won’t happen that way.

by ryanfea on Dec 18, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

of course not...

just like flipping a coin one time. There is a 50% chance it lands heads, but it won’t happen that way. Of course unless the coin lands on its edge.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Projections might matter in this sense:

Its pretty clear the Mariners have closed what was once a significant gap. Those performance projections tell us that the Angel’s margin of error has decreased. We cannot survive with the Matt Palmer’s, Shane Loux, Dustin Moseley’s, and Anthony Ortega’s of the world starting many games.

by beyondblue on Dec 18, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

This is idiotic...

You’re missing a couple of big points….

Cliff Lee isn’t replacing Bedard AND Washburn, he’s replacing Bedard. Ryan Rowland Smith is replacing Washburn, or Brandon Morrow is, or someone is. One player can only replace one player. You understand that they will still have five starting pitchers on the roster, right?

Further, Milton Bradley isn’t replacing Branyan, he’s replacing Ryan Langerhans. The M’s don’t even have a first basemen right now outside of Mike Carp, but look for Branyan to resign or else there will be another move coming, they’re talking with the Brewers about Matt Gamel, 2008 minor league player of the year. They still have about 8 million to spend.

by eric47d on Dec 18, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Welcome aboard

and nice first post at HH. Please read the other posts in the sub-thread. You will see the retraction and the WAR method used.

But on your topic of who is replacing whom in the starting rotation. I know that Washburn is gone, but I was comparing 2009 production, which Washburn had plenty of as a Mariner to incoming 2010 projected production. In that sense, it doesn’t matter who is replacing who, only which 2009 production players were gone and which ones were new. 2009 Bedard/Washburn two headed pitcher had similar innings pitched to Cliff Lee’s 2010 projection. Nothing wrong with that comparison as long as you use the 2010 WAR projections for the 2010 win estimates. Cheers!

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 18, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

well, they are adding an addition 6 mil to their sunk cost...
According to sources familiar with the deal, the Mariners will send a total of $9 million to the Cubs in the deal, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reported. Of that amount, $3 million is to even out the difference between Silva’s salary in 2010 and Bradley’s salary. The other $6 million constitutes payroll relief for the Cubs and will be paid out in over 2010 and 2011.

by Jietoh on Dec 18, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Cliff Lee in his own words, "Shocked and Disappointed" over his trade to the Mariners.

He is not happy about going to Seattle at all and was led to believe that the Phillies were not going to trade him despite the rumors that were going around the day before the Halladay trade. This short phone interview on MLB Network is pretty amazing: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4753045
Lee could end up being like Teixeira, there but not really there, as a one year rental in a trade his heart is not in to and looking forward to just getting through the season and moving on once it is over. This plus Bradley could put a bit of a damper on the “new” magical Mariners team over the season. It will be interesting to see how this plays out anyway.

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Dec 18, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

that is very interesting

I’d never thought about that aspect.

by ryanfea on Dec 18, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

So

He’s the R. Kelly of baseball (and I don’t mean Roberto Kelly)?

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Dec 18, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Lee was shocked and disappointed about leaving the Phillies, not about coming to the Mariners

He never mentioned having any problem with Seattle or the Mariners. It won’t matter, they aren’t going to re-sign him anyway, but they’ll get two draft picks when he walks. There’s just no way to put a bad spin on the Lee acquisition.

by gregrabble on Dec 18, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, but they've been linked to everyone.

Wouldn’t shock me to see another trade. That Morrow for Gamel deal is something that’s been discussed for a few weeks.

by Rudy4three on Dec 18, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions  

If you listen to the interview with Cliff Lee he said going to the Mariners was

like moving to the other side of the world. There was not one ounce of excitement or enthusiasm from Lee about his new team in the whole interview.

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Dec 18, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

He'll probably be just fine in Seattle. The team is full of outdoor types who

take fishing and hunting trips. Given that Lee spends a lot of his time hunting, I take it he’ll enjoy his teammates and the scenery.

by Rudy4three on Dec 18, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Washburn was quite a hunter as well...

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Dec 18, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

He pretty much felt the same way

when the Indians traded him to the Phillies. He’s going to be pitching in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, in front of arguably the best defense in baseball, on a team that seems to have one of the most tight knit clubhouses in baseball.

It’s possible he won’t like it here, but (as an M’s fan) I think it will be hard for him not to like it here.

Of course I’m also probably unbelievably biased so take that with a grain of salt…

by faceplant_04 on Dec 19, 2009 12:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Uh, so?

It’s not like he’ll pitch worse on purpose to be traded. That’ll just lower his FA value.

by .Taylor on Dec 18, 2009 11:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep. Jose Guillen was a huge factor in getting the Angels to the playoffs in '04

Just because he was a headcase doesn’t mean the Angels didn’t profit greatly from his bat during the season.

by yeswecan on Dec 18, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Come on...........

who’s scared of the monopoly guy?

Not me.

Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 18, 2009 1:26 PM PST reply actions  

The only reason Bradley's antics should matter...

…is that, between those and his injuries, he’s averaged about 100 games a year since 2001. Compare that with a player like Hunter, who averages 140. That must be why his WAR seems so low (1.0). for his averages.

But still, its a great trade for the Mariners. High risk High reward for a team that needed his bat. And really, I’d take 2 years of Bradley at a reasonable price (AND getting rid of any commitment to Silva) over 5 years of 18 mil for Jason Bay. Its another great trade for the Mariners, but I am not overly concerned.

At the very least, I get to remind my coworkers that they root for Milton Bradley and I root for Torri Hunter.

by beyondblue on Dec 18, 2009 3:35 PM PST reply actions  

At least one team in the AL West is making some moves

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Dec 18, 2009 3:45 PM PST reply actions  

Consistently winning 3rd Place Pennants will do that to you.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Bradley will melt in all the rain

Seattle lineup:
Ichiro
Figgins
Ichiro
Ichiro
Bradley
Figgins
Ichiro
Bradley

Wow, that is good.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Dec 18, 2009 4:49 PM PST reply actions  

LOL

Look for that type of lineup in 2020, when cloning is feasible, legal, and practicable. Maybe they’ll bring back Ted Williams from the deep freeze to stock the Red Sux lineup again.
(sorry, the Star Trek post item has got me goin’ sci-fi again…)

by Raaddad on Dec 18, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

and Robots for umpires.

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Dec 18, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions  

There's an idea

maybe THEY can get the freakin’ calls right…: “Aw shucks, did he tag both guys or what??? Let’s just say he tagged one guy…”

by Raaddad on Dec 18, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

But what if I bought Robot Insurance from Sam Waterston?

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Dec 19, 2009 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

I guarantee you Carlos Silva is almost as much as a clubhouse cancer as Milton Bradley.

Besides it’s not as if clubhouse chemistry factors noticeably into overall team production. But in any case, Bradley can get on base like a madman.

by .Taylor on Dec 18, 2009 5:21 PM PST reply actions  

Anyone else still get pissed off about how much jack these jerk-offs like Silva and Bradley make?

And 3 million people are out of work!!! It just freakin’ kills me. You just throw a a piece of cowhide 90 mph and you’re making 6 mil, when millions of us work our asses off, often doing great things to help others and add some light to the darkness that we flounder in as part of this 21st wasteland, and we don’t make jack squat! AAAHHHH!!!
Sorry, it’s freakin brutal this time of year and I’m pissed and depressed.
(I’ve gotta go back and look at the Matsui-headed Godzilla again…)

by Raaddad on Dec 18, 2009 5:34 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah it does, that's why I want a salary cap (and a floor and other revenue reform)

It’s ridiculous now. Players get paid more money than even their grand kids or great grand kids would know what to do with. All for playing a sport.

I’m all for athletes getting paid comfortably, but not at a level that puts them on par with some of these corporate douchebags that are ruining our lives right now.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 5:59 PM PST up reply actions  

the make less than Oprah

and do more work. I say pile it on.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 18, 2009 6:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Two wrongs don't make a right

Zing! ;)

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with Nate--

It only makes sense. “Pil[ing] it on” is exactly what’s wrong with sports, our economy and our country. I think that’s about the one thing we’re really good at is “piling it on.” The deal that Lackey got just proves how mindless and insensitive the “corporate douchebags”—as Nate put it—are. The next thing you know will be bailing out those
a-holes too.
Why not have a salary cap, etc. ? (and maybe 2 years of community service before playing pro ball to learn what’s really important besides oneself).

by Raaddad on Dec 18, 2009 6:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, the answer you'll get...

Or one of them at least, is that your proposal won’t make anyone any money.

If there’s one thing that should be obvious after the last year, it’s that corporations (which is what all sports teams are) and the banks that hold their loans can’t make money then they won’t support the proposal in question. After all, how are banks going to have money to refuse to loan to us and make terrible investments with? Guys like A-Rod, Teixiera, won’t be able to get those 5 houses they “need” instead of just one, and so on, right?

Salary cap? Come on, moderation is un-American… ;)

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 18, 2009 8:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you one of the best 750 in the world at what you do?

No?

Then shut up, or stop supporting a team.

Simple as that. This argument worked great when I was 10 years old and knew nothing of how supply and demand works, but now I think they deserve every penny they get from the owners.

Why, you ask? Because if the players didn’t make it – the owners would pocket it. The players are the reason we watch the game – not the owners. They deserve their fair share, don’t they? And, MLB is a multi-billion dollar game – the players are getting their take. If the owners didn’t have it to give – they wouldn’t offer the contracts.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Dec 18, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, nice try

Even in the “free market” of baseball, owners still pocket a ton of the money and/or spend it frivolously. Look at teams like the Royals and others that get money from revenue sharing, and what do they do with it? Squat.

Half of these contracts are based off of hype as much as they are talent. $275 million to A-Rod? $161 million to CC to pitch every 5 days? $82.5 each to Lackey and Burnett who are typically above average at best? These types of signings keep setting precedents that future players, GMs, and agents feel obligated to surpass. You know who ends up paying the price? You and I. You end up with new stadiums being built with public funds with ticket prices so high that much of the public can barely afford to watch their team in person. See both NY stadiums where the average price is something like 70 bucks a ticket. This is a trend that needs to end.

A cap and floor system along with improved revenue sharing would help the game a lot and wouldn’t affect the lifestyles of pro baseball players at all.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 19, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

For further reading...

See this very well-written article below. It’ll take a while to read but it’s worth it.

Seats of Gold

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Dec 19, 2009 1:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Tell me....

how would Jeffrey Loria implement a salary floor?

By signing every crappy veteran to contracts just large enough to get him over a hump and then trade him in August when he knew he had made “payroll” for the year.

A salary floor sounds good – but cheap owners will exploit it and not increase competitive balance at all.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Dec 21, 2009 12:38 AM PST up reply actions  

No, that was not a "nice try."

I have to disagree with you finally on something, Nate. That Jimmyuscamp posting was horrible and demeaming. “Shut up and stop supporting a team” ???
That’s just lame, dude. It was a thoughtless don’t-question-the-staus-quo comment when you were 10, and it is the same now.
 We have green boxed thumbs-up posts; that deserves a brown box thumbs down—if there were such a thing. Of course, I’d already have a number of those so far…

by Raaddad on Dec 21, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Raaddad...

complaining about the salary of the player when the industry makes multiple billions per year – I think it’s up to $5 or $6 billion in revenue per annum – is just silly. If my tone was harsh towards Commander_Nate – then I’m sorry, but complaining about the best 750 baseball players in the world and their respective salary awards is silliness.

If consumers just wanted to see the game played by merely “good” players – roll to your nearest junior college or University. But, we crave something more from MLB and the players have proven themselves against the best competition in the world in myriad situations: regional club teams, high school, college, University, the minor leagues and finally the major leagues. Those years of preparation are either unpaid (college or University), or it is time that is poorly compensated (minors) and there is NO guarantee that the players will EVER make a good wage at what they do. They simply keep working and striving to achieve a goal that might be unattainable.

If they reach the pinnacle of their chosen profession they are then paid a good/great salary – $400,000 per year (minimum) – for six years. Only then are they allowed to negotiate in a way where they are free to go to the team that values them the most and is willing to pay them accordingly.

The guys that get this far, in my opinion, deserve all that they can get from the owners – a group that has historically tried to pay their employees as little as possible while reaping HUGE profits.

Do they make too much money in relation to my collegiate teaching? Heck yeah they do – but no one is buying tickets and lining up to see me lecture on Miles Davis or Aaron Copland. Shoot – I only get 40 or 50 folks to come see my jazz group play if it isn’t at a large festival.

I understand your point – Raaddad and Commander-Nate – I just think it is a bit naive and misunderstood. The commitment baseball players exhibit with no guarantee of success needs to be compensated when they hit free agency. They aren’t just making money for that one year – they are being re-paid for their time in the batting cage and in infield practice for all the years that they worked to get to where they are at that moment and they only get that one moment. By 37 or 38 – they are done and can’t – generally – earn a living in baseball ever again.

It is a special circumstance and deserves special arrangements with regard to compensation.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Dec 26, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

whatever the market will bear

what is so hard to understand about that?

Milton Bradley could do your job stacking boxes at Wal Mart, but you can’t do Milton Bradley’s job… Thousands upon thousands of people can’t.

Baseball gives me infinite joy, that alone is worth whatever these ballplayers get. Aside from John Lackey’s ugly ass, of course.

What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.

by clover_black on Dec 18, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions  

And a Merry Christmas to all!!!!

I think I turned into Scrooge for a minute…
“Can you forgive a [middle aged] man his foolishness?”
“God bless us everyone!” (Cue in Tiny Tim voice)

by Raaddad on Dec 18, 2009 7:53 PM PST reply actions  

Well,

Not that I really have a horse in this race but I can honestly say that I am one of the top 500 people in this world at what I do. Probably one of the top 100.

And NO Milton Bradly or anyone else in baseball could do my job. The same could be said for thousands of other people who do highly specialized jobs are are very good at them. Very few of these people make 6 figures let alone 7 so that argument doesn’t really hold up very well…

by Jietoh on Dec 21, 2009 8:16 AM PST reply actions  

Great article by Wright Thompson, Nate.

Post New Journalism at its best. I love the goofs on New York Yankee fans and the quote: “The American sports industry is in harvest mode,” Luker says. “The industry has lost its regard for human beings.”
Of course that’s true about many businesses, and perhaps even some folks on this website, in lieu of comments following my diatribe on Dec. 18th above. But Rev didn’t specify that compassion and sensitivity are important elements to consider when posting on his “Guide to Fan Posting,” so there ya go…
Thanks, Nate.

by Raaddad on Dec 21, 2009 12:43 PM PST reply actions  

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