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Around SBN: The Pros and Cons of an 18-game NFL Schedule

What's That #18 Pick Worth?

What's the value of the 18th pick in the draft, which will be the shiny part of our two-part compensation for Chone Figgins (unless the Mariners sign another Type A free agent)? Cupla-three ways of looking at the question. The first is just observing that the Angels have only picked as high as #18 four times during the Mike Scioscia decade.

Three of those four will be familiar:

Star-divide

10 2000 Joe Torres
12 2002 Joe Saunders
12 2004 Jered Weaver
13 2001 Casey Kotchman

If you wanna bracket that a bit with some guys a few clicks south of 18, here's a batch:

20 2000 Chris Bootcheck
23 2003 Brandon Wood
24 2009 Randal Grichuk
25 2005 Hank Conger
25 2009 Mike Trout

I'd be happy with more than half those guys, so that's a pretty promising list. You could, for example, simply check out the #18 picks over the past 14 years. This is a far less impressive group:

1996 R.A. Dickey
1997 Mark Mangum
1998 Seth Etherton
1999 Richard Stahl
2000 Miguel Negron
2001 Aaron Heilman
2002 Royce Ring
2003 Brad Snyder
2004 Josh Fields
2005 Cesar Carrillo
2006 Kyle Drabek
2007 Peter Kozma
2008 Ike Davis
2009 Chad James

So that's basically 5 marginal major-league pitchers, 2 high school pitchers who washed out in the minors, 2 dudes currently stuck at AAA, enigmatic Chisox 3Bman Josh Fields, and 4 pretty decent young prospects (the 4 most recent).

Of the two lists above I would weight more heavily the Angels' track record than that of the numeral 18.

Completists can go to Baseball Reference to see #18s throughout the years (and real anal sonsabitches can adjust the draft slot to equal .6 of the number of teams drafting, but that's a time-waster for another day). An executive summary of the 31 pre-1996 #18s:

  • 15 never made the show.
  • Of the 16 who did, the best were Willie Wilson, Joe Magrane, Carlos May, and Disco Danny Ford.
  • Other notables include Rex Hudler, Glenn Wilson, Jamie Quirk, and Jack Armstrong.

For previous discussions on what certain draft slots mean, see my posts here and here. And remember -- we'll also get a pick somewhere in the 40s!

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments |

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To clarify currently the Angels get the 31st (?) pick...

       do we retain that pick as well or do we forfeit that to get the 18th pick?

by Nashdiesel on Dec 4, 2009 7:01 PM PST reply actions  

we retain that pick

unless we sign some other team’s Type A player.

As it stands now we would get Seattle’s pick #18 and our own #31, plus a sandwich pick for Figgy somewhere in the low 40s.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 4, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions  

And, sadly, another pick might be coming if Lackey takes off

sure would seem like it would ease the pain in a Halladay trade if we’re getting 3 first round picks and 2 sandwich picks.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by ihearhowie2.0 on Dec 4, 2009 8:52 PM PST up reply actions  

the angels draft well

those 2 picks are well worth figgy and finally giving wood his shot PLUS the saved money…. seattle sign him!!!

Confidence breeds success, self-doubt breeds failure

by Blaze453 on Dec 4, 2009 7:06 PM PST reply actions  

They absolutely draft well.

I’ll take a Kyle Drabek type in the 2010 draft. The Phils are really high on him.

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Dec 4, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions  

figgins!!!!

Confidence breeds success, self-doubt breeds failure

by Blaze453 on Dec 4, 2009 8:19 PM PST reply actions  

Famous #18 picks in history

1966 Carlos May
1970 Disco Dan Ford
1974 Willie Wilson
1978 REX HUDLER
1980 Glenn Wilson

In the last 20 years no #18s have done anything interesting, best were Willie Greene and Aaron Heilman. Angels have had this pick once, they drafted Seth Etherton (Setherton?)

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Dec 4, 2009 9:25 PM PST reply actions  

Wasn't Etherton

a big time pitcher from CSULB. That was initially why I was worried about Weaver the Young.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Dec 5, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions  

I thought he was a Trojan

That would be reason to worry about Randy Johnson and Tom Seaver.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 5, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Etherton was from USC

and he was undersized and got by on great command and a breaking pitch that he couldn’t quite duplicate in pro ball because he said the seams were different.

by MH252525 on Dec 5, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Etherton is still hanging around

Played for Reno in the PCL (AZ DBacks organization) in 2009. Didn’t pitch great, but he did throw 160 innings, which was the most he’d thrown in years.

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Dec 6, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

All draft picks are nothing more than rolls of the dice

The Angels do well overall in their player analysis, but have had their misses as well as their successes.

I wish Figgins well, but if the option was a $35m to $40m financial commitment to him – it is was time for him to move on. I wish him and his family the best in Seattle, it’s a good city and an improving team.

by mustard_man on Dec 5, 2009 5:49 AM PST reply actions  

still helps to have a lot of dice to roll

Sure, theyre all risks but having more picks surely helps your odds of striking gold. If Lackey is gone and we avoid any Type A’s, we will have 3 first round picks and 2 sandwich picks. That’s 5 guys before the second round!

RIP Nick Adenhart

by ihearhowie2.0 on Dec 5, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Yes, they're a roll of the dice

That said:

Tim Salmon
Garret Anderson
Darrin Erstad
John Lackey
Howie Kendrick
Casey Kotchman
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Scot Shields
etc, etc, etc

The Angels do a better job of scouting and signing prospects than most.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 5, 2009 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

damn Kotchman is looking real good right now

Aybar is a nowhere man, Sitting in his Nowhere Land, Making all his nowhere plans for nobody.

by princeton11loveshalos on Dec 6, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, he just managed the championship team in the Pioneer League

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Dec 7, 2009 6:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Interesting stuff

Thanks for the research.

Also, there’s a cluster of very interesting SoCal prospects projected go on or around that slot. Talk about homegrown!

Driven into right-center field, Erstad says he has it...the Angels, world champions!

by LAASurfin on Dec 5, 2009 12:23 PM PST reply actions  

If the Mariners sign another type A FA

Do we still get the 18th pick or do we get bumped down and get the M’s second round pick. For example last year, why did we get the Yankee’s first rounder when they also signed Sabbathia and Burnett?

by HaloFanInDC on Dec 5, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions  

Depends on the Elias ranking of the Type A signed

We got the Yank pick cuz Teix ranked higher. Figgy ranked low, so now we hope Seattle’s Type-A shopping is over.

by mattwelch on Dec 5, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the Mariners will be plenty busy...

…they’ve got money to burn. We’ll end up with their 2nd (or god forbid 3rd) round choice

I see red people

by The Limey on Dec 8, 2009 7:05 AM PST up reply actions  

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