PECOTA just released its 2009 projections. I haven't read up too much on how the projections are reached, but based on the outcomes it has something to do with a magic 8 Ball and chicken entrails.
In addition to projecting 4 .500+ teams in the AL East and 95 wins out of the Cubs, PECOTA says the Oakland A's are going to win the AL West with 82 wins, and the Angels will finish under .500 with only 79 wins.
If I remember correctly, the Angels were in first place BEFORE the Teixeira trade. I understand there will be a drop in production at 1B, but added ABs for Rivera plus the continued maturation of guys like Kendrick, Napoli and Aybar should make up some of that.
Regardless, 21 fewer wins than a year ago seems a little off the mark.