Spring Training Closer Musing: Francisco Rodriguez vs Brian Fuentes

by Downing Rules on Mar 17, 2009 4:26 PM PDT Comment 32 comments

Zu Long and I have been having some conversations about Brian Fuentes and comparing him to Francisco Rodriguez.

Allow me to present the data and I will let the Halos Heaven community make their comments on the matter.

Fuentes' Positives: Costs $3M less per year, left-handed, contract runs out one year earlier, 8 draft pick place jump from 33 to 25 AND a supplemental pick around 45. Per inning stats were better than K-Rod's in 2008, vesting option provides the team with an out in 2010. More 1-2-3 innings 15 to 20% (national league, you say? well, he ain't facing pitchers in the 8th and 9th innings, I assure you), adjusts from a hitter's park (albeit in a weaker league) to a pitcher's park.

Fuentes' Negatives: Higher Loss Percentage, Higher BS percentage, comes in during less pressure situations, doesn't have a ring, plays in AAAA, less win shares.

Stats: (2005 to 2008)

Player – Appearances – Losses – BS – K/BB ratio
F. Rodriguez – 275 – 13 – 22 – 356/128=2.78
B. Fuentes – 199 – 19 – 20 – 302/105=2.88

Save%-

K-Rod: 89.8
Fuentes: 84.7

Loss rate:
K-Rod: 1 loss every 21 appearances
Fuentes: 1 loss every 10 appearances

Total WPA over past four seasons:

K-Rod: +14.48
Fuentes: +6.65

Fuentes had a stretch of losses in 2007 that preceded an injury. Yep, I am making excuses. He had a rib injury,

Fangraphs has a stat called gmLI, which is a measure of a pitchers’ leverage index at the time they entered the game. The higher the number, the higher the pressure.

2005-2008 Fuentes gmLI

1.76
1.51
1.52
1.77

2005-2008 K-Rod gmLI

2.08
1.93
1.78
2.13

From Fan Since 1981 on 12/31/2008:

Year / K-Rod / Fuentes

K per 9
2006: 12.08 / 10.06
2007: 12.03 / 8.22
2008: 10.14 / 11.78

BB per 9
2006: 3.45 / 3.58
2007: 4.54 / 3.38
2008: 4.48 / 3.16

FIP
2006: 2.72 / 3.97
2007: 2.70 / 4.15
2008: 3.22 / 2.24

Average fastball
2006: 94.8 / 90.4
2007: 93.6 / 90.4
2008: 91.9 / 91.6

K-Rod was better than Fuentes in 2006 and 2007, but Fuentes peripherals were actually better than K-Rod’s in 2008. Can Fuentes maintain his solid performance level of 2008? How will the change in league affect him?

I appreciate everyone's insight and let's hope the front office made the right decision in bringing Brian Fuentes to the 2009 Angels.

Poll

RIGHT NOW, who would make a better closer for the 2009 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? Don't think about money, just think about statistics and ability to close out games (also, don't think about Fuentes coughing up 5 runs today in a SPRING TRAINING game!

Brian Fuentes

38 votes

Francisco Rodriguez

59 votes

97 votes | Poll has closed

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

0 recs | Comment 32 comments

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Comments

Fuentes is stinking it up in preseason....

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, cut Jered Weaver and Vladdy...

Vladdy is looking horrible in ST so far! ;)

by Downing Rules on Mar 17, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

one game?

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weaver's had two, but that's not the point...

BHM, I was merely jesting as you said Fuentes is stinking it up. My jest was the standard “small sample size” argument as Fuentes has also only had 2, 3 counting today, appearances. Vladdy, I just threw in there since he has yet to appear.

by Downing Rules on Mar 17, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 appearances and a 13.50 ERA

Im not worried but WOWZERS…

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has a sore back

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Mar 18, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh and i pick.....

jose arrondondo.

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 4:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For me its a wash......

I think given the same opportunity on this team that Frankie had…..that there would really be no difference……

His spring numbers arent alarming yet…because….well these games dont count…..

If they did…..Jered Weaver would be in trouble then :)

and Brad Coon would be hitting Cleanup for us :)

A person who performs good Karma (deeds) is always held in high esteem
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 17, 2009 4:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But I voted for Fuentes BTW

A person who performs good Karma (deeds) is always held in high esteem
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 17, 2009 4:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Until Fuentes starts logging real games...

…I’m taking Frankie every time. Been there, done it, many t-shirts.

But, I’m open minded, I don’t think there’ll be a lot in it by the end of the year

I see red people

by The Limey on Mar 17, 2009 5:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

In your mind?

A person who performs good Karma (deeds) is always held in high esteem
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 17, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the call the club made

to spread the money out and not overpay for a position as easily filled as closer, but Frankie, considering his age, his stuff, and his results up until now, is still head to head the better pitcher and the better bet to perform well over the next few years. But having an adequate closer such as Fuentes plus a bat like Abreu’s definitely makes the team better than if the money only went to Frankie.

by dmhead on Mar 17, 2009 5:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

To be honest, until I see Fuentes come in and log 40+ saves, I HAVE to pick

Franky. I realize Fuentes played for a team that tended to have many fewer save ops, but until Fuentes proves he can walk the walk, Franky is just better. For what it’s worth, Franky also gives up fewer runs over slightly higher innings, and Franky’s average ERA+ is MUCH better, even if you only use the last 4 years for Fuentes.

Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 17, 2009 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

All I care about is the regular season and the playoffs

So, I wouldn’t worry even if his ERA is extremely high. Are you telling me CC in his natural fat suit will have a 5+ ERA this year? Didn’t think so.

Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.

by vlad IS my man on Mar 17, 2009 5:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No doubt Fuentes has some big shoes to fill.

However, Frankie got a lot of save chances and a lot of them were junk saves, i.e. up by 6 runs, bases loaded two outs, one pitch saves.

It will be interesting to see how each closer reacts to a new environment. They both are in foreign environments in new leagues facing different hitters.

I’ll make my decision later. Although I would’ t be surprised if Fuentes has more saves this year then Frankie

by UCIHalo on Mar 17, 2009 6:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

NEWS:

Pedro signs with Astros
According to:

Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.

by vlad IS my man on Mar 17, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/03/astros-schedule-press-conference.html

Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.

by vlad IS my man on Mar 17, 2009 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

um apparently not

Watching the Halos from Princeton University. The random Halo fan in a sea of Bosux and Skankee fans.

by princeton11loveshalos on Mar 17, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

SURPRISE!!! At least Fuentes was better than the 2008 Cy Young winner today...

SURPRISE, Ariz. (AP)—Cliff Lee was just trying to spot his fastballs. The Texas Rangers had no trouble finding them.

The reigning Cy Young winner gave up 10 runs, nine earned, on 11 hits in 2 2-3 innings during an 11-5 loss to the Texas Rangers on Tuesday.

by Downing Rules on Mar 17, 2009 8:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

RAD. hes on my fantasy team.

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

good thing the march games dont count.

A person who performs good Karma (deeds) is always held in high esteem
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 17, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

skipped him. thought last yr was a fluke

Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.

by vlad IS my man on Mar 17, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I think with his track record he's somewhat overvalued.

Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 17, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lee remains a mystery to me.

I never saw him live, but I did see him on TV. I have no idea how he was able to make bats miss. When he pitched agaisnt the Halos, I just sat in my chair with my mouth agape. Mirrors. Smoke. Something.

So, it would not surprise me in the least that hitters dial in on him. All that would do end my existing surprise.

by Stirrups on Mar 17, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

where your picking 16th...

there werent many more aces left.

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 9:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Voted for Frankie...

…but have no doubt we made the right decision. Fuentes is cheap and can close, but so what if he isn’t Frankie? Arredondo can close. And this guy named Scot with a ring and a rubber arm is OK, even when we all bitch.

At best, Fuentes is an elite closer who is an amazing value and at worst, he’s an awesome LOOGY or set-up man at market price.

We are better this year. Mark my words.

by JAP on Mar 17, 2009 10:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs