ESPN all over the Halos today

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 2, 2009 11:48 AM PST

A lot of content today on worldwide leader of Red Sox coverage, not much of it too nice. Perhaps most interesting is an article contributed by Baseball Prospectus on how we've basically mismanaged our assets of Kendrick, Wood, Aybar and Morales by holding on to them too long and having it blow up in our faces to this point. They note that Howie's once huge ceiling has been reduced to basically Freddie Sanchez because hes completely reluctant to take a walk.

They also point out that Wood's current trajectory based on his numbers to date would make him the first player to strike out 150+ times and walk 12 times in an entire season. He's gonna be 25 years old and already approaching his peak age and we have nothing to show for it. Basically, to BP, we've wasted the value of our prospects by holding on to them and overvaluing them.

You need the Insider access to read it, but heres the link anyway:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=3946072

****Theres also another article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2009/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3945381

That talks about our offensive woes. Basically it talks about how our offense is built for the regular season but our approach fails in the postseason against elite pitching when its harder to string together single after single to score runs.

The gem quote of the article courtesy of Mr. Hatcher:

"We don't have a lot of power in the lineup, so they'll throw us more strikes," hitting coach Mickey Hatcher said. "If you're dangerous all the way through the lineup like the Yankees, you're going to get more walks."

Mmhmmm.

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Second article is the same old crap

Blah Blah offense is built for regular season only blah blah blah..
The first article is kinda interesting but how can they say howie is gonna be another freddy sanchez?? That is retarded, Howie has been injured way too much to know that.

I'm gonna drop the hammer, and dispense some indiscriminate justice!
Terran siege tank

by angelsown3417 on Mar 2, 2009 11:53 AM PST reply actions

i agree

particularly i think its hard to gauge Morales and they do admit Aybar isnt far off the potential that was expected of him….but Wood I admit I worry about. I mean if he doesnt make it in 2009 is it safe to call him a busted prospect?

Most troubling is that the organization insists on hoarding these guys, but then often plays the veterans ahead of them and stunts their growth. I guess its hard to complain because the TEAM keeps winning, but it feels like a strategy thats on the verge of seriously biting us in the ass considering the weak free agency class coming up, the possibility of losing Figgins/Vlad/Lackey and the still-uncertain value of Kendrick and Wood.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 2, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions

it is called depth

guys got injured and we won 100 games because we had depth. oh damn we sat on a prospect too long, we could have traded that prospect for, uh, well, uh… an overpaid veteran who would no longer be with us or another prospect we would have been accused of sitting on.

ESPN is not even trying anymore as they make the transition to 24-hr NASCAR love.

by Rev Halofan on Mar 2, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions

agree to disagree

i made sure to mention that its hard to complain because we keep winning, but im sorry if i just feel like it might catch up to us in a year or two when there will be no vlad-type talent to carry us anymore because of weak free agents and prospects with diminished value

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 2, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions

we signed Vlad as a FA .........

We could sign someone else like him again……its no big deal my friend……In Arte I trust.

A person who performs good Karma (deeds) is always held in high esteem
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 2, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions

at the core

they MUST be measuring things incorrectly because for 7 years they have predicted our failure and for 7 years we have exceeded their predictions – they are NOT measuring our team’s abilities correctly.

For all the talk about STATCORE STAT-HEADS breaking the rules and throwing out the book, their methods have become ossified friggin fossils and orthodoxies never to be violated SO FAST that the scouting types almost seem innovative, radical and improvisational in their approach.

by Rev Halofan on Mar 2, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, unless Howie hits .330 for a decade....

… or Aybar becomes the best defensive SS in the game. Or Wood hits 25-30 homers a year. Any/all for basically league minimum. Those scenarios are all plausible; as is having one of the game’s best offensive catchers just now entering his prime. There is also the not-irrelevant matter of the pitching staff.

by mattwelch on Mar 2, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions

thats a lot of if's

and I’m aware they’re plausible. I was merely copying and pasting relevant articles about the club to start discussion here.

also, the way i read the two articles together was that one problem compounds the other: 1.) our reluctance to trade prospects when their value is at its peak not only leaves us with the possibility of them underachieving because they dont get the necessary time to develop in the bigs, but 2.) when we make the playoffs we lack proven threats because we preferred to stick with the young guys. The result is that we’re once again banking on the plausible “if” factor of our young guys all becoming Mr. Octobers for us to advance deeper into the playoffs.

I definitely see both sides of the argument and I think the article was written in response to the 100 win angels largely failing in the postseason on the bats of some of the guys they’re writing about: Aybar and Kendrick.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 2, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions

Look, Kendrick was out of it, and we played badly

It really wasn’t that long ago when you could find baseball smarties who would tell you that the Scioscia approach works particularly well in postseason. It’s very important not to jump to Important Conclusions based on one playoff series, or even two. We played tight against a very good team that always gives us fits, and Howie in particular performed abysmally, not because he’s a prospect that we’ve held onto for too long but because he was COMING OFF AN INJURY, PROBABLY TOO SOON. Somewhere on the intertubes you can find a Matt Welch post documenting the various First Two Weeks after Howie comes back after injuries, and the results are mostly brutal. This does not mean that he is a bad baseball player. Nor does Aybar missing a squeeze really mean much of any goddamned thing in the long run.

What you want to do is make the playoffs every year, with teams that have a legitimate shot at winning it. We did that in ’02, we did that in ’05, and we did that in ’08; plus we made the playoffs in ’07 and ’04 as well. How you can take that track record, and some choke-jobs against Beantown, and conclude that our young players are a Huge Disappointment is just way the hell beyond me.

by mattwelch on Mar 2, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

i think theres a difference between Huge Disappointment

and failing to meet expectations. My point was just that i feel like if we’re gonna keep the guys over trading them for proven bats, then play them otherwise we’re basically placing the price tag of a star on a guy sitting on the bench. Obviously Howie and Aybar have been given their shots but Wood, who you could argue needs the most slack, is not being alotted the ABs even though they refused to part ways with him.

to me, its one of the trickier aspects of balancing yearly competitiveness with perpetual restocking of young talent the pretty much characterizes the Moreno regime. By rarely trading the prospects for the proven bat, we often lack an offense that youre confident about supplying runs in the postseason vs. great pitching. Yet, by trying to always be competitive, its hard to justify giving ABs to the young stud prospect and accepting youre gonna deal with the growing pains. The result is a guy like Wood who just seems to always be stuck in limbo where he’s too good to trade but not good enough to play everyday, the result being a lot of extra time to develop.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 2, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions

Until this year, there has been precious little blockage

Arguably, Kotchman got blocked by Erstad a bit, and McPherson wasn’t allowed to play regularly after his first long trip to the DL, but if that’s the extent of our prospect-blocking on the big league level, considering the annual playoff visit I’ll take that. Chalk it up to injuries or luck, but somehow we managed to not block Aybar (for instance), even though the roster is and was filled with shortstops.

BUT. This year that changes. Every AB Wood has in AAA from this point forward is a wasted AB, in my opinion, and I hate the idea of him spending another year yo-yoing just because we can’t make a trade. Which is one reason why I’m still betting, or at least hoping, that we’ll see some of that blockage cleared via trade before Opening Day.

But I also reject the whole “trade prospects for proven bat” thing. First of all, which proven bat has been A) on the trading block, B) available at a position we need filled, and C) obtainable with our prospects? We trade Casey for a bat; doesn’t that count for something? (And doesn’t it further count for something that we had a Casey-level talent available as a cheap backup plan for when Teixeira didn’t re-sign?)

Our only two prospects to really crap out have been Mathis and D-Mac. The latter was an fluky injury situation; the former is better than just about everyone’s Number Two catcher. Alex Casilla and Alberto Callaspo were both pretty good (roughly Aybar-level) prospects, and what did we get by trading them “on time”? A lousy season out of J.C. Romero and some fantastic AAA work from Jason Bulger.

The we-held-‘em-too-long argument depends, I think, on two things: 1) evidence of suckage, and 2) evidence of blockage. We’ve had much less of both than most people argue.

by mattwelch on Mar 2, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions

All great points

I guess what we agree on is that trades DO need to be made to clear up the spots of the guys we’re going with. I just cant help but feel though that the business plan of being competitive while at the same time incorporating the young guys creates a problem here and there.

For instance, the “incorporating young guys” part of the plan appeared to be the chosen direction throughout the offseason as evidenced by Tony specifically saying he wanted to give his young guys their opportunity.

But the “always be competitive” part demanded the signing of Abreu at such a bargain price. It was a fantastic move and I love it, but at the same time it just basically shoves Wood out of the lineup.

So its a weird situation. Keeping Morales and Aybar and Wood around and saying you want to give them their shot suggests one thing, but the signing of Abreu basically would suggest that Figgins cant be traded because he makes the team more competitive.

I dont have a problem with winning games, dont get me wrong, but I feel like sometimes trying to balance both aspects diminishes the effectiveness of both

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 2, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

sorry but

I can’t buy the argument that Abreu pushes Wood out of the line-up because I don’t believe that Figgins was ever a realistic consideration for the outfield. Its been over two years since he was used out there, and if I remember correctly he did not look comfortable. His bat is already pretty light for 3rd base, but at least he gives us very good D there. His bat would be especially pathetic in a corner outfield spot, and his spotty defense out there would only compound the problem.

by dmhead on Mar 3, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions

But practically speaking, and knowing Scioscia ....

… if there were no Abreu, the starting lineup would include Figgy in LF, and Juan/Vlad shuttling between RF/DH. Scioscia has no hesitation to put pathetic bats in power positions, we should all know by now. And he loves using defensive flexibility to create space almost as much as he loves writing the name “Figgins” on a lineup card.

by mattwelch on Mar 3, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions

well i suppose thats true

if you figure Tony meant playing Gary Matthews when he said “we want to let our young guys play”

because keeping Figgins at 3rd because his bat plays better there than in the outfield means he’d rather have Figgins at 3rd and Matthews in the lineup in LF or RF rather than do as Tony suggested the club wanted to do and let Wood get his ABs

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 3, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions

Articulate as always

I can see October from Arizona!

by Rally Manatee on Mar 3, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

You know who else was reluctant to take a walk?

Roberto Clemente? Also, Kirby Puckett.

by mattwelch on Mar 2, 2009 12:30 PM PST reply actions

okay but Howie is neither of these...

so…I dunno, sort of a pointless comparison.

gets ready for Welch beating

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 2, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions

When using words like "ceiling" on a young player, it's appropriate

Howie hits the cover off of the ball, and has a great swing. We don’t know how good he’ll be mostly because he’s gotten hurt. Refusing to take a walk, in and of itself, does not give you a Freddie Sanchez ceiling. As evidenced by my examples (and countless other very good ballplayers, like Al Oliver, Steve Garvey, and a bunch of others you could probably name). Hence the examples.

That said, I won’t ever pay money to ESPN online, so I’m only going by the paraphrase.

by mattwelch on Mar 2, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions

Good. Give our guys a chip on their shoulders. It’ll serve to toughen them up.

by Downing Rules on Mar 2, 2009 2:22 PM PST reply actions

Retarded

Even rent-a-slugger Mark Teixeira contracted the dreaded single-itis, rapping out seven singles in 15 at-bats against the Red Sox.

Mark Teixeira reached based 11 times in 4 games. If the whole team would have contracted such “dreaded single-itis,” we would have scored 10+ runs a game. This stuff makes my eyes burn.

by mattwelch on Mar 2, 2009 3:00 PM PST reply actions

How dare he only manage a .550 OBP

Stupid bum.

replacement level analysis

by 442 on Mar 2, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions

Mark Teixiera played for the Angels?

Must’ve missed that one.

Light Up That Halo!

by Clutch on Mar 2, 2009 11:51 PM PST up reply actions

Small correction: The article on mismanaging prospects wasn’t a BP contribution, just a regular ol’ guy giving his opinion for ESPN the Mag. (Right?)

Still, harsh piece, mainly because, dude, almost anything can happen to a group of four guys. It doesn’t mean they’re mismanaged, it just means whatever, crazy stuff happens in tiny sample sizes, and four is a tiny sample size.

But wait that’s not all. Howie Kendrick = Freddy Sanchez? Even if we presume this to be correct, and shoot, it might be (though I doubt it), Freddy Sanchez was a damned good player for three years. He was a second baseman who was better than league average hitter and won a friggin’ batting title. Most minor leaguers don’t grow up to be Freddy Sanchez, and if Freddy Sanchez had played for a championship team (he was definitely good enough to) instead of the PIrates you’d be like, Yeah, Freddy Sanchez! In fact, put Freddy Sanchez’ 2006 season on the Red Sox and he might have been named MVP of the league. Know how I know this? Because he did last year, except it wasn’t Freddy Sanchez it was Dustin Pedroia having almost the same season. (Not that Sanchez is as good as Pedroia or anything but you get my point.)

There’s more. You’re bagging on Erick Aybar? Really? A 24-year-old who is a top-5 defensive shortstop and doesn’t kill you with the bat signed for the league minimum? Those guys tend to get paid real money and super smart people suggest guys like that might even tilt the division this year. Again, most minor leaguers don’t grow up to be Erick Aybar, no matter how good they looked in High A ball.

So he started with four “disappointments,” grouped together as a unit because it suited his purpose and his deck headline (“Have the Halos mismanaged a generation of prospects?”), but it includes two players who aren’t disappointments at all except as measured by the ESPN-the-Magazine’s Hype-O-Meter. And two others who, yeah, disappointing so far but not dead by any means. And the grouping ignores the fact that the same time period gave us Mike Napoli, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Jose Arredondo, who might not fit into his arbitrary “infield” grouping but who were part of the same development system at the same time.

I mean, it’d be like if I wrote a column with the headline: “ANGELS: Greatest development system of all time?” And then my lead was: “Four years ago, nobody would have thought Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, MIke Napoli and Jose Arredondo would all look like All-stars in 2008. But lo and behold, the Angels turned four out of four of these players into stars!!! WOOHOOO!!!” It’s easy to find “trends” when you get to cherrypick from the past. Lame.

Saving countless runs with my defense.

by Sam Miller OCR on Mar 2, 2009 3:52 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

....so how do you really feel?

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Mar 2, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions

thank you, Sam

Glad to have you on our side. Don’t forget him trying to stretch Wood’s handful of at bats last year into an entire season in order to call him the worst ever. He couldn’t be bothered to mention that not one of these guys has yet to get a full season of MLB at bats under their belts. Not every prospect is Longoria or Braun. Some need time at this level to you know, develop. Lame, indeed.

And why didn’t anyone else notice this wasn’t a BP article? I know most here feel that they’re completely anti-Halo, but at least they make a pretty strong case with their arguments. This guy has hack written all over him.

by dmhead on Mar 3, 2009 10:10 AM PST up reply actions

Bravo!

I can see October from Arizona!

by Rally Manatee on Mar 3, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions

ESPN is coming to LA

i hear sometime in April. So maybe the West Coast ESPN will give us some love and stop ball gobbling the red sux. Angels will quietly kick some more ass get no respect and thats just the way it will always be.

Give the young guns a chance...if they suck wellll...

by angelskid2210 on Mar 2, 2009 7:03 PM PST reply actions

Coming to LA?

What are you referencing.

I guess I already used my Manny bomb for the month?

by hauldog on Mar 2, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions

Well supposedly

I heard this on AM 710 that in april ESPN is going to be airing out of LA plus the East Coast. I do not know the details but Stuart Scott was explaining it. So i assume there is going to be an East and West coast ESPN. Article here…http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2007/Dec/18/br/br7413589206.html

Give the young guns a chance...if they suck wellll...

by angelskid2210 on Mar 2, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks

I guess I already used my Manny bomb for the month?

by hauldog on Mar 2, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions

yeah they're opening a "campus" by the Staples Center in a further effort to build up downtown

What this exactly means in terms of west coast coverage, who knows.

by linkbruin on Mar 3, 2009 8:49 AM PST up reply actions

stupid articles

every team has guys who make it and who don’t. hindsight is 20-20.

What about the huge success of guys like frankie, arredondo, napoli, santana, saunders and weaver. All of these guys are at or near all-star level. Then we have regulars like HK, aybar and jepsen who are above average guys at their position and not yet in their prime.

we then also have guys who will soon hit the major league level like adenhart, wood, srod, morales.

You can make the same busted prospects and should have traded this guy or that guy for each team. Look at the LADs. How many freaking stars in the minors were they supposed to have and now what?

Heck, even the ESPN love childs Bosucks have guys who were can’t miss like Buchholz, hansen. gabbard. Ellsbury sure took a step back last year and lowrie hasn’t shown much other than an average player.

Go Angels!

by Four Ts on Mar 2, 2009 8:05 PM PST reply actions

Yea, the Angels sure blew it by not trading

Joe Saunders instead of yanking him back and forth from SLC in 2007,
or Ervin Santana before he sucked in 2007. Now they are both doomed and have no value whatsoever. :)

by oater on Mar 3, 2009 4:40 PM PST reply actions 1 recs