John Lackey is seeking an extension.

by TheOptimist on Mar 20, 2009 4:46 PM PDT Comment 16 comments

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090320&content_id=4039346&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana

And thus far, the front office has seemed reluctant to give it to him. Now, I like to think my general support for the front office is well known. I've been willing to forgive some of their bad decisions and in the past their unwillingness to sign some of our franchise players has seemed like the smart move. But there is a limit, and the buck stops here. Our best, most consistent pitcher is ACTIVELY seeking an extension, and those guys are playing around?! SIGN HIM ARTE!!!! This is not a hard decision. Have Reagins get his **** together and GET A DEAL WORKED.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

lack's pissed

mlbtraderumors says he thinks we’re not trying hard

Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.

by vlad IS my man on Mar 20, 2009 5:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

They got that from the LA times.

Kokey 8 made a fanshot about it.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 20, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

do we know what johnny's pitches will look like in 5 years?

by ihearhowie2.0 on Mar 20, 2009 6:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hard to say.

30-35 is a risky age for starting pitchers. That’s where guys start to develop arm trouble, or fall off the table. Most of the guys that doesn’t happen to end up being all-time greats. Some not-quite top tier guys make it through this transition without issue— Chuck Finley, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettite. It’s possible that Lackey is one of those guys.

However, it’s statistically more likely that he ends up like Jason Schmidt, Bartolo Colon, John Smoltz and has arm problems.

The nice thing about Lackey though is that stuff-wise, he profiles more like the top 3 than the bottom 3, stuff wise. John has never been the “overpowering fastball” type. He works in the low 90s and uses a big curve, along with his changeup.

Bottom line? It’s a tough call to hand $18 million a year to anybody. Lackey’s in a weird netherworld talentwise. He’s not quite a CC Sabathia or a Johan Santana level-ace, but he’s still more than a #2. I feel for the front office. This isn’t quite as cut and dried as one might think. At the end of the day, I’d still say do it though.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 20, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lack's a Horse

sign him soon

Still, I wish I was here

by adirondackangelfan on Mar 20, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh.......need to sign this guy.....

A person who performs good Karma (deeds) is always held in high esteem
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 20, 2009 6:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

the organization doesn't like to sign pitchers...

to any deals longer than 4 years so if they make a deal they’ll probably make this year, the first year plus three more years. and i think he wants 5 years.

by thejd on Mar 20, 2009 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

read somewhere he is seeking 5 @ 90 mil.

Phys: Well, Coon doesn't have a lot of power but he's a good bunter
Coon: F$%# That!
Thanks Zu

by halofan4life on Mar 20, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

MY SOLUTION:

5 Years, $90 Million, but tear up THIS year’s contract and get his Age 30 season in as one of the big ones, that way if disaster strikes, we are on the hook out there one less season and if it does not strike John can have a big payday yet again in time for his Age 35 season.

by Rev Halofan on Mar 20, 2009 9:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Damn,

I have to agree with you on this one. Sounds perfect. Go with the same reasoning for Vlad. Takes an extra year off the contract.

And hey, they could always get injured or have a down year. That is why you sign ’em now (and cheaper) while they are considering that.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Mar 21, 2009 2:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A more in depth look.

This is the list of guys who will be free agents next season. If you scroll down to the starting pitchers, you find that while Lackey is the best guy there, though there are a number of people teams might be willing to take a flier on, like Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny, Kelvim Escobar and Erik Bedard.

All of those guys have a chance of giving you a season as good as Lackey, but they also all have serious injury problems. The question becomes, with that much potential for a “make due” kind of starter, what teams are out there with the money and cajones to throw down 5 years $18 million on Lackey, especially in the present economy?

The Yankees already spent the lion’s share of their money this off-season.
The Red Sox have invested in Daisuke and Beckett.
The Mets have Johan Santana. That would seem to eliminate the East Coast big spenders.

The Cubs have Carlos Zambrano tied down with mega bucks.
The White Sox have a lot of money coming free this off season, so they figure to be big spenders, but with Danks, Floyd and Buerhle manning their rotation, pitching will likely be a secondary priority.
The Tigers have locked up a lot of their money in their hitters, and seem unlikely to be willing to spend that kind of money on Lackey. Those would be the big guns of the central.

The Dodgers are losing Schmidt but spent mega-bucks on Manny and some others this off-season. It seems unlikely that they’ll go for it.
The Giants are stuck with Zito as their big-money ace.

Another West Coast team we may have to worry about is (surprise!) the Seattle Mariners. They lose Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, and Miguel Batista, so pitching will be something they’re looking for, and they’ll have some cash to spend doing it. Plus we know their front office hasn’t been afraid to throw obscene amounts of money at starters. On the other hand, they still have Carlos Silva as an anchor around their necks, and with Felix Hernandez and Brandon Morrow in the rotation, it’s not clear they’ll be willing to anchor themselves to Lackey for the next five years.

As a dark horse, St. Louis is one other team that might bite on Lackey. They haven’t really had a solid number one since Carpenter blew up, and they’re stuck with his contract. Plus they’ve shown an unusual proclivity for acquiring members of the 2002 Angels team. If Carpenter still can’t get healthy this season, they may decide to bag it and go after John, though given their previous spending practices that seems unlikely.

The final team in the running would of course be US. We have the money, and especially in light of lingering questions about the severity of Santana’s arm injury, we could use John to keep right on doing what he’s been doing. However, looking at everything written above, we may not have to. Most of the big spender types already have at least one pitcher they are paying uber-bucks to. If the economy is still trashed next year, it’s very unlikely any of those teams will give Lackey what he’s asking for, especially with all the “bargain aces” mentioned earlier being available for significantly less money.

The front office may feel that it’s smarter just to let Lackey hit free-agency and then offer him something more affordable than what he’s asking, like 4 years/$14 million.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 21, 2009 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good analysis

Any particular reason you omitted Texas? Millwood and Padilla “may” come off the books, as well as Blalock, Byrd, and Catalanotto. There is still some substance to the Rangers tagging onto Ben Sheets later this year (he’s in rehab, in Arlington). Despite high expectations for Holland and Feliz et al, it would be no surprise to see Hicks dump out the wallet for a veteran pitcher to lead the new mix. Lackey’s performance in Arlington has been up and down, but he is from Abilene (not that he wants to return to Texas, more like he knows a whole lot about the team and how it’s positioned). Curious.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on Mar 21, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas has been keeping a payroll below $70 million ever since they traded A-Rod.

Unless Hicks decides to change that (and in this economy, I can’t see that happening), they just don’t have enough money to drop $18 million on one guy. I kept to the high-roller teams mostly because they’re the only ones able to absorb that kind of salary into their payroll.

You’re right that otherwise he’d be a good fit for them though.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 21, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Correct

I covered this elsewhere—Hicks was burned badly by the deals he wrote for A-Rod and Chan Ho Park, and has had low return from those he wrote for Millwood, Padilla and especially Young, whose 2007 extension will look worse and worse with each passing year. Unless Josh Hamilton flames out this year, there is no way the Rangers won’t give him a large deal, but I don’t think Hicks will be game for $90M/5 yrs for a 31 year old Lackey.

Lackey might be an attractive object of affection, since he is a Texan and thus has some marketing value, but it must also be considered that his stats in Arlington are not a thing of beauty.

by George Kaplan on Mar 22, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I saw point in your discussion.

Props on making your post more readable than mine BTW. :-P

One point you might bring up in that discussion is one I made above, which is that it’s not JUST the economics of the situation that will hurt Lackey’s market price next season, it’s the high availability next season of guys who could potentially be just as good in the short term who will be signable for less money.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 22, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs