2009 Angels Best Season Ever
by halofan1 on Apr 1, 2009 11:13 PM PDT
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PrintNot to sure if anyone else has put this up yet, but I found it pretty interesting. Hope you all do too. It breaks down our players from the perspective of the end of the 2009 season if everybody hits their best projected stats, with a quick overview of how the season went. 120 Wins sounds pretty nice to me :-)
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/angels-best-team-2350456-season-innings?orderby=TimeStampDescending&showRecommendedOnly=0&oncommentsPage=1#slComments
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Not gonna happen.
It would awesome, but it’s not gonna happen. My guess is about 95.
Angels fan since '67
I say 90-72
It’s going to be a somewhat 2006-ish season but unlike in 2006, it should be enough to win the division.
We're probably somwhere between an 85-89 win team
Which will likely be quite good enough for playoff baseball.
http://inplaynoouts.blogspot.com/ - A blog about teams I like, written by me.
I agree with you, probably on the upper end of that estimate, maybe good for 90...
…mostly because I also expect the A’s, for all their off-season re-tooling, to be really fucking bad.
Perhaps, it reflects a lack of knowledge on my behalf, but I just can’t see (unless that twat Beane has sacrificed his first-born on some dark altar) how their starting pitching is going to keep them alive this season. Sure they’ll score a few more runs, but it’ll be less than us. The stars will have to align for them remarkably well and there’ll need to be an outbreak of something highly contagious and broadly career-threatening in the Angels clubhouse for them to prevail.
I reckon they’ll finish 3rd.
If they’re lucky.
I see red people
agreed
Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.
by vlad IS my man on Apr 2, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
That's where I have them too...
That might be optimistic depending on Lackey, Escobar and Santana and their health. If they are not all back by May 1 or soon thereafter, I’d go lower.
Gonna be a tough season, I think…
Jim Scully
Escobar should be back by Detroit series
Which is why I haven’t put those tickets on sale yet. I heard that on the broadcast a couple of days ago. Hopefully we take it slow with him as I can only imagine his arm/shoulder isn’t ready for a 32 game workload.
by MidwayCityLivestock on Apr 3, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm sticking with my Modified Prospectus Wins stat.
They recently dialed us down to 84 predicted wins, so that puts the Angels MPW at 94 wins on the season.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I like your train of thought.
I said it once and I’ll say it again: I expect to win 95 games every season.
93-69
Which will be enough to get into the October Elite Eight Tournament (why isn’t October the eighth month of the year? Gregorian could not count when he made his calendar).
Because some prissy Roman jerks decided to cram in July and August
for Julius and Augustus.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
To be fair
Julius’ achievement in Orange-based drinks is significant
Netherlands-2 Dominican Republic-0
True
but I’m a bigger fan of his second cousin Anne, and her pretzel achievements.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm going 94-68
With at least an ALCS berth.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 1:00 PM PDT reply actions
Sports Illustrated Came out with their Baseball Preview Issue
Picks Angels to lose World Series to Mets…
by MidwayCityLivestock on Apr 2, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions
Seems like
they pick the Angels vs. somebody with the Angels always losing.
Give the young guns a chance...if they suck wellll...
by angelskid2210 on Apr 3, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Mike Ditka vs. a hurricane... Who would win?
But wait… the hurricane is named “Hurricane Ditka”
Angels fan since '67
by red floyd on Apr 2, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
72-43
Nostradamus predicts a shortened season. It’ll hit us out of nowhere and leave us hanging in another “what if” episode of Angels Baseball.
Blogging is FUN!
Shortened season isn't until 2012
when the world comes to a sudden, apocalyptic end.
C’mon man, read the prophecies!
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually, that happens on December 21.
The season will be over, thankfully. Howie can hit .400 while Wood becomes the first non-roider to hit 70 homers, and then I can die in peace.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yeah, but not until Roland Emmerich (he of Independence Day, Godzilla, and The Day After Tomorrow fame)
gets his $9.00 out of you:
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I saw that movie already.
SPOILERS
It’s called Knowing and it came out like 2 weeks ago.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I saw it, too
I think this one’s different, though.
Cuz the knowing was about how Jesu…err…albinos will save the souls of those who believe in heave…err…their prophecy that the world will end. Meanwhile, the nonbelievers in Christ…err…these aliens who look like angels will be left on Earth to perish.
That one, right?
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the aliens who look like angels were the ones who LEFT earth.
Everyone else perished. Except the believers.
Point is, saw the movie where the world is gonna end and there’s nothing we can do about it. Don’t need to see it again really.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yes, it was confusingly written, but I realize the 'angels' left earth
BUT WHAT IF THERE IS SOMETHING YOU CAN DO TO SAVE THE WORLD, ZU LONG!
Turn off your lights more often, buy a Prius, become a vegan, and something-something or nother…that’s the only way to stop the doom!
And ergo the only way to stop another one of these movies from coming out!
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Pfft. Even if I did any of that stuff, I wouldn't be saving the world.
I might be saving humanity, but the planet itself is tougher than that.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Pfft.
Doesn’t count as a planet if we’re not around to fuck it up.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Existentialist nonsense.
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, does not go away. The Earth exists whether we are around to experience it or not. Further, the IAU’s definition for a planet is as follows:
a celestial body that
1. is in orbit around the Sun
2. has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and
3. has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit
Observation or lack there-of by self-aware beings need not apply.
~Till the Halo burns out...
It was a joke
yes, the tree does make a noise even if I’m not there. Obviously.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions
a snap?
Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.
by vlad IS my man on Apr 3, 2009 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions
This whole subthread was a series of jokes.
I thought I was just playing along. Though I probably should have made my post more over the top to make it clear I didn’t mean it seriously. Like, add in a few exclamation points or something… >_>
Anywho, sorry about that. :-)
~Till the Halo burns out...
HOW DARE YOU
something-something-something.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 3, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
$9???
Is that bargain night somewhere?
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 3, 2009 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions
The place I worked some years back was 8.75 when I left
I think I went to a showing there a month ago or so and paid 9.50.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 3, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
dating myself… it was $4.50 for full tilt adult price when I worked at a movie theater. And people would still bitch “I used to pay 10 cents for a double feature when I was a kid” — so I don’t complain when I shell out my 12 skinnies at the show because I know they’ve heard it from 1,000 other customers.
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 3, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
then you are spending $1.50 more than I do when I buy them from my HR department at my company. Good enough for 1/8 of an order of popcorn! That’s how I’m rollin’! lol
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 3, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Gonna be hard to carry that...
when you are using a walker. ;)
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 3, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
If GA weren't so damn lazy
we would.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Apr 2, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
99 wins........
just like the 2002 championship team’
Lock it up.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Confrontation simply means meeting the truth head on - Coach K
by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 2, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions
96 wins
a much closer race resulting in fewer gimme’s, balanced somewhat by a need to be more aggressive in more games over the greater course of the season in order to come out on top.
Reading the projections on some of these guys
it seems like PECOTA just has a huge freakin’ blind spot on our team, because their 90% percentile projections are just ridiculously low-balled. Some of their best-case-scenarios (the 90th percentile ones) for a couple of players are LOWER than my middle-tiered projections, and I don’t think I’m being unreasonable.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 2, 2009 4:27 PM PDT reply actions
Have you ever compared their player predictions from the year before
to their actual production. With the exception of a few extremes: they are SO close on so many stats (Cumulative and rate) that it’s freaking scary.
Every year when I get the new book, I compare it with the old one. They seem to have Jared Weaver about as figured out as you can get. With that said, here’s what WTY will do in 09:
11-9 4.33 ERA 1.28 WHIP 136 K 51 BB 37.0GB%
Just so we all know what to expect. :)
by MidwayCityLivestock on Apr 3, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I have
but this year’s predictions (particularly Kendry’s) just seem so blinded by some factor that they clearly overlooked.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 3, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
A consistent regression to the Mean.
Although, what’s Kendry’s Mean?
by MidwayCityLivestock on Apr 3, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I've never compared player by player for PECOTA.
I HAVE compared team wins to their projections every season. For the last 5 years:
2004: +10 Actual Wins over predicted
2005: +12
2006: +8
2007: +8
2008: +12
The Angels have averaged +10 wins on PECOTA every year Arte Moreno’s been owner. If once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, and three times is enemy action, what is five times?
That’s how I got a Modified Prospectus Wins of 94 for my prediction.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Five times is a blind spot in their projection system
I always laugh when people raise the lazy argument that we’ve been ‘lucky’ for the last few years.
Sorry folks, that voodoo crap doesn’t fly with me.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 3, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I saw your original post describing MPW.
The “unknown factor” that I think prospectus ALWAYS overlooks with us is simple:
Great Management and Depth.
by MidwayCityLivestock on Apr 3, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
A range of outcomes
70 wins (shudder, or less): The starters don’t come back; Santana needs surgery, Dr. Yocum can’t find Lackey’s arm, Escobar gets trapped in cyberspace. Fuentes can’t handle the AL and chokes. Vlad turns out to be not a year older, but is in fact the little old bald guy from the Benny Hill show.
80 wins: Angels can’t overcome starting the season without The Big 3. Offense finishes 11th in runs scored.
85 wins: Rotation more or less gets back on its feet. Fuentes does fine, but is no K-Rod. K-Mo and HK have good years, good D from the infield, but OF starts to show its age.
90 wins: Offense is decent and finishes 6th in the AL in runs scored. The starting pitching is good enough and hands it off to the business-as-usual bullpen.
95+ wins: The Soth passes out while filming a Howard’s commercial when he is able to go with a rotation of Lackey, Ervin, Escobar, WTY and Mighty Joe for close to 2/3 of the season. Big offensive years from the OF, HK gets in 580 PAs, K-Mo has a very strong year. Bullpen is lights out.
Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!!
They had Seattle in fourth last year.
Saving countless runs with my defense.
by Sam Miller OCR on Apr 3, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
i see you are going out on a limb with a prediction!
;)
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 3, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm sorry
I just can’t trust anyone to accurately project what Oakland’s rotation is capable of.
My bet is on full-implosion by August.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 3, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
They'd need to develop some kind of critical mass for that implosion...
…I’m betting on a steady, dispiriting deflation, sort of like sticking a nail in a semi-inflated football.
I see red people
They have a mass of garbage known as the Oakland Alameda Coliseum. How critical it is, I cannot say.
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 3, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Incidentally, I found their reasoning on this:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8696
“Although the Angels won a franchise-record 100 games last season, that was in no small part because of their outperforming their expected finish by an all-time record 13 games. Operate from that starting point, delete Mark Teixeira, and anticipate a good amount of lost ground from the pitching staff—especially Joe Saunders, but also from a bullpen that helped the Halos finish an MLB-best 31-21 in one-run games—and you’ve got a .500 ballclub.”
No comment on the return of Kelvim Escobar and how much he owns Garland. No comment on how Abreu>GA offensively and what Napoli could mean should he be given the playing time he deserves. We’re the same team as last year except we lost Teixiera and our pitching will clearly regress (Don’t ask why. It just will). Oh and the fact that we were 26 games above .500 WITHOUT Teix means nothing, it was all luck. And they wonder why they’re always off 10 wins. _;;;
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!
I do not know the outcomes for the 2009 baseball season.....
…but I can GUARANTEE that if the Angels falter this season, there will be incessant braying from certain segments of the analyst community. It will be to the tune of, " See! See! It was all just luck! I was right! I am so smart! I am so smart!"
Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!!
by Fan Since 1981 on Apr 4, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I love the way that's written
basically “pay attention to all the negatives, give no credit to the positives.”
I think they forgot to say “subtract ONE-THIRD of Mark Teixeira,” and on top of that forgot to mention we had a better winning percentage without him than with him. Oh, and don’t forget that we have a full seaosn of Abreu, and maturity from any number of young talents that should stay healthy this year (Napoli/Kendrick).
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 4, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait a second.
“Although the Angels won a franchise-record 100 games last season, that was in no small part because of their outperforming their expected finish by an all-time record 13 games.”
That is the paramount example of how statistical abuse leads to completely bogus logic and intellectual dishonesty.
The nimkompoops pull out their sliderules and proclaim that the Halos should finish at 87 wins. Reality intervenes and they actually win 100. Their takeaway from that miss is that the real world is false. Reality “outperformed” conjecture, so reality is the villain.
“Hey, teacher, about problem number 6. Every time I do the problem on paper, 2 apples plus 2 apples always comes out to be 3 apples. But when mom tried to do this at home last night, she kept coming up with 4 apples. I need you to please write me a note to take to my mom telling her how stupid she is.”
by Stirrups on Apr 4, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Exactly
the starting point for the Angels’ +/- win total in this year compared to last year is 100 wins. Not 87 or 88 or whatever they’re saying.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 5, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Projections from MLB trade rumors...
…Link
He’s got us at 90-91 wins (though he’s a bit bemused as to how the offense is going to come up with a projected 5.2 runs per game)
I see red people
goodvibes and i worked on this prediction
62 wins to become the only team to go from a 100 win season to a 100 loss season consecutively…..
LOL
now for my real prediction……. 90 wins to take the division, we win the first round of the playoffs easily, take the second round vs the rays to game 7 and beat the cubs in the world series
There is an "Angel in the outfield" and his name is GA! ps. he is lazy but not a bum GO HALOS!
Late season game with a then basement dweller with no individual records on the line
called by rain and unable to reschedule due to travel problems with remaining schedule.
In which case it will be called a no-contest
and you still lose.
:-D
Plus, if we were undefeated that late in the season, no way they don’t play the game to a conclusion.
Man, I rule at this totally fake, impossible, joke scenarios!
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 3, 2009 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions
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