BP Picks Angels 2nd in AL West....
by BleacherDave on Apr 5, 2009 1:31 PM PDT
Email
PrintHey Rev, Happy Baseball Season. C ya at the yard! What have the statistical models been smokin?......
#12: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (83-79, 741 RS, 726 RA). Like the Twins, the Angels have so many injuries that it's hard to know where to slot them. As their defense and baserunning has declined—get past the reputation and look at what an aging, slow team this has become—so has their competition, leaving them able to dominate a weak division. That's changing now, just as their pitching staff, the other constant, gets hit by a truck. John Lackey and Ervin Santana have to be back soon and make every start the rest of the way, or 83-79 will be a pipe dream by August.
#6: Oakland Athletics (88-74, 746 RS, 695 RA)
Not a typo, though I keep thinking it is. The A's additions of Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera were such massive upgrades on both sides of the ball over what played left field and shortstop last year that they'll have a huge effect. It's not just a statistical thing; the A's, who collectively take good at-bats and draw walks, needed guys to bat .290 with a bunch of doubles, because few teams squandered more good counts and more good situations last year. Holliday and Cabrera fit perfectly in this lineup, making it a good offense. The rotation is shaky—Dallas Braden, Opening Day starter?—but there's so much pitching in the upper levels that it could be a lot better in August than in April. The bullpen is fantastic, five deep when Joey Devine returns.
AL West
A's 88 74 .543 --
Angels 83 79 .512 5
Rangers 78 84 .481 10
Mariners 77 85 .475 11
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
92 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Thats a whole lot of..
Notgonnahappen right there…
Outfielders For Sale! This weeks special...GMJ - see Tony for details!
by gorams77 on Apr 5, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
The shorter summary, for those who don't want to read that
ANGELS – EVERY SINGLE THING THAT CAN GO WRONG, WILL GO WRONG.
ATHLETICS – EVERY SINGLE THING THAT CAN GO RIGHT WILL GO RIGHT, AND A BUNCH OF THINGS THAT CAN’T POSSIBLY EVER ACTUALLY HAPPEN WILL ANYWAY
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 5, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs
Rec'd
Also, even assuming that ALL of Oakland’s young pitchers make it up and meet or exceed expectations, they’re not going to be pitching 200+ innings all of a sudden. With a rotation that young, they’ll need 8 starting pitchers over the course of the season. Who are they?
The Halos top-8 are: Lackey, Santana, Saunders, Weaver, Moseley, Adenhart, Loux and Escobar. As long as Loux, Adenhart and Moseley are the bottom three in terms of # of starts, they’ll cruise to another division title.
With a rotation that young, they’ll need 8 starting pitchers over the course of the season. Who are they?
The current five plus Duchscherer, Gallagher and Gio Gonzalez, with prospects James Simmons and Vincent Mazzaro at AAA.
You think you’re the only team with a farm system?
Ah
more rookies. Yeah, that’s the recipe for winning a division: nobody with more than 1 full season under their belt. If you’re expecting Duchscherer to pitch more than about 50 innings this year, you’re dreaming.
You asked for eight starters over the course of the season
I gave you ten, all of whom either have more upside than the Adenhart/Moseley/Loux trio. But hey, if you want to assume Oakland’s best pitcher will be injured all year and yours will be fine in a few weeks, go for it.
Just don’t accuse others of skewed views when you’ve got the rose-colored glasses on.
Not at all
In fact, Oakland has a AAA team in Sacramento.
It is there one will find Daric Barton, the can’t-miss prospect of 2008. The guy with such tremendous upside for the team, that it went and signed Jason Giambi to play 1B instead of Barton.
The difference between potential and realized potential is often quite vast. I think you’ll learn this lesson the hard way in 2009.
by George Kaplan on Apr 5, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Keep telling yourself that, Nate
You’ll enjoy the sound of those words when you’re watching the post season and no team playing is in green and gold.
If nothing else, you’ll understand that all three of those pitchers have potential, and for each of them it has been largely unrealized—but that was before Opening Day. All that is being asked of each of them is to make 2-4 starts and hold the fort until Lackey, Santana and Escobar return over the next 6 weeks.
Now is the time you tell me that the Oakland staff has three head-to-head matchups for those three Angel pitchers. Go ahead—this will be good.
by George Kaplan on Apr 6, 2009 4:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Moseley’s minor league numbers: 4.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.26 K/9.
Loux’s: 4.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5.38 K/9.
Adenhart’s numbers are a bit better, but really, no one thinks he’s got more than “innings eating back-end starter” potential.
And yes, keep telling yourself the injury problems will all be over in 6 weeks. That’s usually how it works, right?
Adenhart
Adenhart’s numbers are a bit better, but really, no one thinks he’s got more than "innings eating back-end starter" potential.
Really? Is that what they’re saying in Jack London Square? What is the cost of a clue up there, since it is clear you’ll be panhandling for days until you can afford one.
Adenhart is so locked into being a certain “innings eating back-end starter” that he is widely said in the SD media to be a requirement to obtain Peavy. As we well know, most teams trade their aces in order to obtain “innings eating back-end starters”. Brilliant analysis on your part.
So tell the truth: You were describing Dallas Braden and typed Adenhart’s name by mistake, right?
by George Kaplan on Apr 6, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
The picture of unrealized potential.....
Kendry Morales. Los Halos are gonna miss Tex. In a major way.
That doesn't even make sense.
“Everything that can go wrong” for the Angels is them being older, slower and poorer defensively (which is pretty much a given) and them having an injured pitching staff. Hate to break it to you, but that’s already happened.
No, "Everything"
is that Howie and Napoli continue to get injured/not produce while Morales doesn’t pan out. Rivera never regains his pre-broken leg form while Vlad declines precipitously.
Also, older, slower and poorer defensively than… who again? Last I checked, Nomar, Cabrera, and Giambi aren’t fresh young daisies.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Oakland
Also, older, slower and poorer defensively than… who again? Last I checked, Nomar, Cabrera, and Giambi aren’t fresh young daisies.
The ace in the hole for the As is that when Garciaparra succumbs to injuries, they’ll have Eric Chavez ready to lead the team to victory. Just as soon as his doctor signs off, of course.
Seriously, the As have had guys like Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Milton Bradley, Chavez and Bobby Crosby—none of whom is old—as chronically injured players throughout the seasons. Supposed ace of the young staff, Justin Duchscherer, didn’t win a game after July 8 of last season, finishing 10-8, and pitched what was ultimately his final game of the season 8/18/08.
Why is it suddenly injuries would affect only the Angels?
by George Kaplan on Apr 5, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Joe Blanton?
I don’t think he’s missed a start in his career.
As for “only affecting the Angels”, most projection systems have Chavez missing significant time. None have Nomar or Crosby as a full-time player. Giambi and Cabrera aren’t tagged to miss time, but Giambi doesn’t have a history of recurring injuries and Cabrera’s never missed any significant time.
I think there’s a bit of a disconnect between an A’s fan and an Angels fan on what an injury-plagued season is. You’re starting the season without three guys you were expecting in there and I’m saying “is that all?”
Try again?
As for "only affecting the Angels", most projection systems have Chavez missing significant time. None have Nomar or Crosby as a full-time player.
You might want to revisit that sentence: If Chavez is projected to miss “significant time”, his backups at 3B are (in order) Garciaparra and Crosby. Not exactly an Iron Man in the bunch.
Nomar is also first option to back up Giambi at 1B, if for whatever reason, Geren wanted Cust in RF and Giambi to DH that game. Those who followed Nomar as a Dodger for the last couple of seasons know all too well how fragile he has become.
He might be able to share some “what to do with your free time on the DL” tips with Joey Devine, or Duchscherer, or Crosby, or Chavez…
But please, continue to point out how injuries are a problem only for the “aging” Angel OF. As for the starting rotation, Escobar wasn’t expected back until the All Star break at the earliest and is months ahead of schedule, and the shut downs to Santana and Lackey are pretty common for Spring Training—hardly the definition of an “injury plague”, but arm irritation with down time measured in starts, not months.
Keep trying. Law of averages says you’ll eventually make a factual statement.
by George Kaplan on Apr 6, 2009 5:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Meh, this discussions is not worth it.
I expect the A’s to have injury problems. They already have them, after all.
I also expect the Angels to have injury problems, which THEY already have.
You interpret those expectations as “injuries are only a problem for the Angels”.
Learn what words mean.
What specific projection do you find unreasonable?
Kendrick is projected to have 400 PAs, more than he had either of the last two seasons. Napoli had surgery in the offseason, (and ask an A’s fan how well those offseason surgeries can work out.) Rivera was atrocious last season and Guerrero is 34.
As for the three A’s you mention, Nomar is on the bench, Giambi is a first baseman, and Cabrera’s fielding last year was well above that of the average ML shortstop.
Giambi is 38, and first-base defense affects more than people think.
Watching you guys figure that out just like the Yankees did should be fun to watch.
Nomar is expected to platoon and will likely see significant time, especially with Chavez being the other player, and Cabrera’s 35 and going downhill.
As for which specific projection I find unreasonable, the fact that Kendrick is predicted to hit sub-.300 seems pretty unreasonable to me. Rivera being atrocious in a half season after returning from a broken leg shouldn’t be all that surprising. Plenty of 34 year olds have had good seasons. It’s not really that old.
And finally, defensively you guys have just as many question marks as we do. Chavez has a good 3B reputation, but it’s been two seasons since he lived up to it, and three seasons since his range was anything special. With his error rate likely to go up with Giambi at first, this could be a problem. Nomar and Crosby are sub-par replacements. Ryan Sweeney was bad in center last season.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Giambi isn't that bad a defender.
Not much range, true, but he’s got decent hands and he’s actually kinda good at picking balls out of the dirt. (Yes, lecture an A’s fan on Giambi’s defense. Please.)
Cabrera had a better 2008 by defensive metrics than either of the previous two years. Not really much evidence for a downward trend there.
Sweeney was bad in center? According to who? UZR had him 6 runs above average for CF.
He's bad
Re: Giambi. CHONE projects him to be -8 runs at 1B next year.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 6, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
It kinda depends on who you ask, doesn't it?
The Probalistic Model of Range claims that Torii Hunter is just fine, while Ryan Sweeney bites it big time in center. It’ll also tell you that Jason Giambi is an absolutely horrible defender.
PMR will also tell you that between Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar/Izturis, Chone Figgins, and Teixeira/Kotchman, the Angels had one of the best infields in baseball last year. Morales may not be Teix/Kotch, but he’s pretty decent glove-side.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Right
because guys like Aybar, Napoli, Morales, Wood, Rodriguez and Kendrick are on the down sides of their careers…
Oops.
The key with the pitching injuries is that they’re happening now, not in September. If by July 1st the Angels can run out a rotation of Lackey, Santana, Saunders, Escobar and Weaver (which is what they expect at this point), they’ll win the division by double digits. Again.
Right
because Aybar, Napoli, Morales, Wood, Rodriguez and Kendrick comprise the entirety of your 25-man roster.
Oops.
And yes, if every Angel who is currently injured gets healthy and stays healthy they’ll probably win the division. If every Angel who is currently injured stays injured, they almost certainly won’t. In between is where the discussion lies. Join us, won’t you?
They may not comprise the entirety of our 25-man roster
but 3 outfielders younger than 35 whose speed is tailing off as they grow older does not make the Angels old or slow.
~Till the Halo burns out...
But it does make their corner outfield defense limited.
Torri better get a bigger glove.
Could say that about Sweeney as well
He has to compensate for Holliday (can’t go back, can’t move laterally) in LF and for that dancing bear, Cust, in RF.
by George Kaplan on Apr 9, 2009 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions
The average ages
of our rotation this year: 27.4
of our infield this year (wood included): 26.3
please point me to the social security line, so we can get these senior citizens paid.
oh, wait.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 5, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Casey....
A’s fans don’t stick around to debate their point of view, just ban people from AN. ( I was banned )
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
Your "debate" on AN:
At least there were fans in the stands, rather than tarps ! ! !
Not that NorCal doesn’t have a lot to be proud of, a 2nd place team that can’t sell out when their rivals are in town, crappy weather, a city with an inferiority complex ( compared to San Francisco) and a stadium where ugly tarps take up two thirds of the seating capacity. I will be there for beer fest, looking for the best seats, along with vagrants and liquor stores, I’m sure I will find all of the above. The best thing about that TARPTASTIC stadium, is the fact its bart close. There are many distractions here in SoCal, yet we still draw 3 mil. a year, while having to contend with Padre and Dodger fans ( and Disneyland, beaches, and mountain resorts, along with Sea World, Knotts and Magic Mountain) whats your excuse ?
26 minutes after the above comment, (which was made at 1:20am Pacific Time):
No rebuttals, huh, than that must be an admission of truth.
YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND THE POWER OF OUR DOMINANCE.. GO HALOS
I was trolling AN earlier, viewing posts how we are all fair weather fans, and leave early, it was all in jest. And yes there are many Halo fair weathers, that cannot remember beyond ‘02. I am not one of them, I have been a life long fan of the Angels, and I was hoping for a rise such as yours which proves my point. Your right, NorCal is the top half of a woman, and lord knows, men have no interest in the bottom half. Our dominance was not just tonight however, it goes back a few years. As for everything else I said, Oakland is one ugly ass city, your weather sucks, and your stadium… well if it was working for you guys, Fremont wouldn’t be your next step. The best thing about the tarps, is the fact it hides thousands of unsold seats. P.S. I work graveyard down here in SoCal, that’s why I posted late. I realize up north you only have two shifts, cow tipping-and milking ! !
Our 3-member outfield is old?
OH NO, THEN THE ENTIRE TEAM IS DEGENERATED INTO NOTHINGNESS!
WE’RE RUINED! RUINED! NOOOOOOOO!
Oh wait, you have Chavez, Cabrera, and Giambi…3 old ass starters yourself.
Whoops. My bad.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Apr 6, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
older... that must all be relative.
How many games did Chavez log last year? And when talking about age how old is Giambi, Garciapara, and Orlando?
I think our Infield is much younger – although maybe just as injury prone. However, we are extremely deep.
Along with our pitching. And outfield. Etc.
I am not sure why everyone is giving these guys so much attention. This is the last day they are going to be in first all year! ;) They have to have their hopes up right now because they are going to be smashed to hell in a few days.
GO ANGELS!
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 6, 2009 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, deep with prospects like Wood, etc.
And when prospects hit the major leagues, we always assume they’ll do great, which is why you guys have such high expectations from the A’s rotation this year.
Is a little consistency in your arguments too much to ask?
Well Nate,
Still working graveyard here in SoCal, and I STILL stand behind what I said. BTW, the sh*t talking went both ways, my first post on AN, was innocent enough, I asked about the best seats in the stadium, as I was going to attend Oaklands Beerfest. Next thing I know, i’m getting roasted.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
Best seats in the Oakland Alameda Coliseum? None available, they all blow.
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 7, 2009 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Seems to be going that way as of game #3
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 8, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I would subscribe to BP for all their great stats
If they were not so completely and transparently biased either against the Angels, for the A’s, or both.
Napoli IS the power bat in 2009. Watch.
Let's hope that Kendry, Hk, Aybar, Naps, Wood, and SRod
all get their chances to show the world about the “aging” Angels
Angels in 09!
.....and Yahoo has
2 people saying angels, one a’s pick, and hah, one rangers picks (passan) LOL
Vlad cheated me. I thought he was 12.
What happens to the A's when Beane trades away half the team at the all star break?
You left that out.
Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!
by 44FAN on Apr 5, 2009 3:13 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
what scares me ...
is that the A’s probably get better if he does this.
by LazorkoRules on Apr 5, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Talk, talk, talk....
…not worth much. A year ago, the Marooners were going to kick out tails back a decade. How’d that work out? Who picked the Rays to make it to the World Series?
Do you really cares what BP says? Life does not conform to statistical models.
Sit back, relax, and enjoy the season. I’m sure there will be some unanticipated surprises in the next 6 months…
Mariners in binary code
01110011011010000110100101110100
0111001101100001011011100110010001110111011010010110001101101000
Translated, that’s “shit sandwich”.
Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!!
by Fan Since 1981 on Apr 6, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Two things working against the A's favor
Young pitching [no matter how great] is young pitching. I don’t care if Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson were the second coming of Brandon Webb and Tom Glavine – they are going to take their lumps. The rest of their rotation looks like guys who get called up from AAA to make spot starts – which sort of similar to what the Angels’ have.
However the Angels really have a better foundation [even with losing GA and Tex] – it seems like Beane has just cobbled up a bunch of veteran spare parts. The A’s suddenly got older with Giambi [DH/first baseman], OCab [shortstop] and Nomar [a utility guy at this point]. While Giambi, OCab and Nomar are proven talents, you don’t know how they are going to hold up.
numbers don't lie
expect when they do.
Two things those projections are missing:
1. The Angels have exceeded their pythagorean projection for 5 years in a row, likely due to their excellent bullpen and 1 run strategies.
2. We should have the money to take on additional salary at midseason to address whatever is not working.
But it should be a fun battle this year with our big rival.
that's good knowledge.....
1. I had no idea that the Angels had exceeded pythagorean five consecutive years. Whatever the cause, that’s no accident. I attributed it to veteran savvy the last couple of years.
2. There are no free agent signings mid-season. Don’t understand why the Angels didn’t spend when they could. Mid-season acquisitions are gonna cost talent in return.
Good post. Thanks.
That's not really what he wrote
2. We should have the money to take on additional salary at midseason to address whatever is not working.
2. There are no free agent signings mid-season. Don’t understand why the Angels didn’t spend when they could. Mid-season acquisitions are gonna cost talent in return.
The statement has to do with the ability to take a contract dump (like Teixeira’s last summer) to bolster the team. The point is that the Angels could spend more money if it was seen as a way of overcoming a liability. The As don’t have that same ability.
by George Kaplan on Apr 5, 2009 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmmm....
You’re saying the A’s could’t acquire the Matt Holiday salary dump? Seems they did so. The Angels advantage is being able to waste money on GMJ and backing it up with a Torii Hunter. Let’s hope they re-sign Lackey and Vlad instead of getting Roy Haliday.
Nope
You’re saying the A’s could’t acquire the Matt Holiday salary dump? Seems they did so.
You’re still not tracking the conversation accurately.
by George Kaplan on Apr 9, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
You're not tracking the facts accurately, George
There’s no guarantee that a “salary dump” will be available that addresses the Angels liabilities, nor that the Angels will be able to make a trade for that player. The purest salary dump – a waiver claim – is pretty unlikely to result in a player that’s very useful for the Angels….unless you think a Bobby Crosby type is gonna help.
The Angels payroll flexibility is best flexed in acquiring free agents, and they have to make decisions on whether to retain Vlad and Lackey after this season.
by BleacherDave on Apr 10, 2009 6:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Team audit thing now has us at 81-81.
And Oaktown at 84-78.
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!
I buy that
"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robert
by .Taylor on Apr 8, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Blind faith in projections is a beautiful thing
Come post a hello to me when the Mariners make the playoffs.
Bedard will re injure his ass in a week.
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
Oh trust me, I don't think for a second the M's are going anywhere this year
"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robert
by .Taylor on Apr 8, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
BP can fuck off (that's mine for April)
“get past the reputation and look at what an aging, slow team this has become”
C Napoli 27/ Mathis 26
1B Morales 25
2B Kendrick 25
SS Aybar 25/Izturis 28
3B Figgins 31 (I’m assuming BP isn’t referring to Figgy as slow)
OF Hunter 33
OF Vlad 34 (yea he’s getting slower but the guy can still score from 2B on a single and from 1B on a double)
OF Rivera 30 (ok yea he’s slow)
OF Abreu 35 (he’s not nearly as fast as he was but he stole 22 bases LAST YEAR)
The Angels are many things but SLOW is not one of them. The fact that BP would say that instead of something that is actually true, like they haven’t emphasized walks and working the counts just shows how completely biased they are.
SLOW as in lead the league going 1st to 3rd? That kinda slow BP????
And giving praise for signing Cabrera? Uh yea he’s an upgrade over Crosby but his OPS was 84 last year and his OPS dropped almost 40 points going to a much better offensive park.
by MH252525 on Apr 5, 2009 6:49 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah cabrera is an upgrade from crosby...
but putting me at short would be an upgrade from crosby
Mike Scioscia For President
Trolls abound ...
Funny how they are ubiquitous and adamant in April, yet so non-existant come October.
Blogging is FUN!
October
By then, they’re in court on drunk and disorderly charges from an early season Raiders game.
by George Kaplan on Apr 6, 2009 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions
In their defense ...
we (Angels) had some idiot throw a bottle at Piazza in the on-deck circle when he was with the A’s. It was a sad day when I saw someone in my stadium do that to an opposing player.
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 6, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Not Trolls
Trolls, by definition, lack earnestness. These “projection” mystics are earnest … totally lost and sold a delusional fortune telling system, but earnest in their beliefs and expressing them with the blind faith of the true believer.
Whenever I think of fortune tellers, I have to recall “Pee Wee’s Big Adventure” …
“I see a BICYCLE. It’s in the basement …. in the Alamo”
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 6, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
See i think of the movie "BIG"
which is kinda like how the A’s and their fans are…….
Adults in physical form……….yet brains of snot nosed teenagers……..
Confrontation simply means meeting the truth head on - Coach K
by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 6, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
When I see the film “BIG”, I swear that the kid in that movie is Steve Young, Norcal.
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 6, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Also funny ...
I have not seen any Mariners trolls this year. Funny how you get your chest all pumped up when 30% of the pundits are predicting the A’s. Well, about 80% picked the Mariners last year. How’d that work out?
Let’s play the games, folks. We are all probably a half-game behind Texas at this point in time, so here’s to a good 2009 AL West battle!
Blogging is FUN!
In other opening day news.....
Frankie was perfect in his first save opportunity as he saved a 2-1 win for the Mets.
And get this.
He set down the Reds one-two-three on just 10 pitches. A groundout to pitcher, a foul out to first, and a strikeout to end it. Well done Frankie!
I think Frankie is going to dominate the AAAA league this season.
Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!!
by Fan Since 1981 on Apr 6, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
On pace for 162 saves!
;)
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 6, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
And I agree wholeheartedly.
Your outfield defense just won’t cut it. Plus Billy Beane is a genius.
"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robert
by .Taylor on Apr 6, 2009 9:25 PM PDT reply actions
“Do I make you proud” Taylor Hicks — little did you know, he’s a crappy singer and a blogger that trolls on Halosheaven.
Blogging is FUN!
by Downing Rules on Apr 6, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Where the hell did you learn anything about baseball? How on earth could you not think Billy Beane is a genius?
I’m genuinely curious to hear your argument.
"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robert
by .Taylor on Apr 8, 2009 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions
No, you first.
Explain to me why you think he’s a genius. No fair spouting off a comment like that without supporting facts.
I was uncool before uncool was cool.
"Genius"
That is the go-to description used by sycophants who long ago lost the ability for objective analysis.
Beane is a good judge of talent. He is far from a genius. The haul Jon Daniels scored in Texas for Texieira—and nobody would dare mention Daniels in the same breath as Beane—is arguably a higher-quality and more-enriching addition to a team than anything Beane was able to do in the past several years.
Sure, Eveland pitches tonight, an exchange for Haren. It isn’t that Haren and Eveland are in any way equivalent talents, but he did manage to find a body to stand on the mound this season. If that qualifies as “genius”, then we owe an apology to Mozart.
The players Beane scored from St Louis (including Haren) were a good return; it would be a much better return if Daric Barton ever lives up to his hype. The players received from Atlanta for Hudson never really brought anything to the party. Same GM made the same deals in the same year; was Beane less of a genius when he was dealing with Atlanta?
Some of the talent he acquired from AZ is now with the Rockies in exchange for Holliday, a player everybody knows will be in green and gold for one season at most. The logic for calling Beane a genius on this move is the idea he can flip Holiday at the trading deadline for some talent, or keep him through the season and get two draft picks. In the latter example, if paying $13M for two draft picks is a sign of genius, then someone is playing limbo with the threshold bar.
The bottom line here is that he has been able to field a team every season, but aside from the win in the AL West in 2006, the team has declined as a franchise. A true “genius” would be winning his division and in the post season, regardless of the hurdles in his path. Instead, he has provided a team which gave two successive seasons of sub-.500 ball. That’s not genius.
So let’s just be realistic and move on. Beane is a good GM, one with a particular skill at talent evaluation. However, he is not, has never been, nor shows any signs he will ever be, a genius at his job.
by George Kaplan on Apr 8, 2009 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I'll clarify: With the extremely limited financial resources he has, Billy Beane does a fantastic job. Money is a huge factor.
And you’re correct, “genius” is not really applicable. I appreciate the analysis.
"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robert
by .Taylor on Apr 8, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
And Brett Anderson pitches tonight....
another mound stander exchanged for Haren….
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
- Does Billy Beane’s contract extension signal an optimistic dawn for Oakland fans?
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
