Question about Dondo...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on May 31, 2009 12:09 PM PDT
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PrintI posted this as a comment but thought it wouldn't hurt to write a fanpost about it and start a small discussion.
Question: What the hell happened to Jose Arrondondo? How can someone be so lights out one year and so terrible the next?My initial thoughts is that the league just learned how to hit him. However, it seems like teams wouldnt even go through the trouble of “studying” a middle reliever. Has he lost some of his speed? Is his breaking ball not working like it use to?
Speier I can understand. Shields, taking into consideration his injury, I can understand. Bulger—who has actually been nails lately—I can understand, hes never been THAT impressive. But Dondo….wtf?
What happened? Rghan? Welch? We need your thoughts.
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He's definitely hanging his slider/fastball
Maybe his rear foot hasn’t dragged enough. That happened to me, and it floats the pitch up. Unnoticeable,but that could be the problem. His stuff has been so-so at best, but it could also be a combination with the rear foot and that it’s his 2nd year, so hitters may have seen him before.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
by vlad IS my man on May 31, 2009 12:26 PM PDT reply actions
It may also be a lack of guidance.
Remember, K-Rod was mentoring him all last year. It may be that he had more of an effect (and was more of a leader in the bullpen) than many gave him credit for.
~Till the Halo burns out...
this is my assumption
perhaps there is something significant to the “bullpen ace as mentor to successor” thing.
Brandon Wood is slated for 2010, and no amount of whining by us is gonna change that. So evolve, already!
Juice or no juice that is the question
Stay on the damn bag!!
Looking at his stats, the answer is nothing.
His peripherals are actually about the same as last season. While he is striking out more batters this year (10.23 v 8.11 last year) he is walking more people, but his K/BB is identical to last year. His 65% strand rate (rate where baserunners score) isnt too far from average. He hasnt given up a HR this year yet. His LD rate is a tad high, but his GB/FB rate is also higher than average, so those should even out and not affect him too much. His infield hit% is 18%, compared to last years 6%, so that should regress as well. His average fastball is down 1.3 MPH to 92.4 MPH, while his slider has raised 1.2 ticks to 86.6 MPH. His changeup is the same velocity, but his split finger has dropped a MPH too to 84 MPH.
His fastball was 1.55 runs above average/100 pitches last year, but is actually .3 runs BELOW average per 100 pitches this year. His slider also went from about 1 run above average/100 pitches to average this year. The real problem has been the change however, going from his best pitch last year (3.73 runs above average/100) to absolutely awful (-10 runs below average/100). His usage of the changeup has also dropped from 12.5% last year to 1% this year. His split finger has improved over a 1/2 run however to 2.74 runs above average/100.
The main problem however is his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). This is usually completely out of a pitchers control (average is around .300), and Arredondo’s is .422, which adds alot of baserunners which have come around to score.
In conclusion, it seems like Arredondo has lost confidence in his change because his fastball velocity is down. Coupled with his increase of velocity in his slider, it doesnt provide enough change of speed to keep batters guessing. His numbers will improve however because he has been extremely unlucky. His movement has been pretty much the same on his pitches (horizontal and vertical) although his slider is sinking more, and running in on righties instead of away from them this year.
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on May 31, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Great post!
All of that seems very plausible. The BABIP is crazy and the speculation that he lost confidence in the Change is most likely spot on.
RIP Nick...
Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home
Wow!
Thanks for the info, and for keeping it concise.
Keep those hammies limber, boys.
by Rally Manatee on Jun 1, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Great analysis
The fastball/change issues are worrisome, and provide a very compelling explanation for the consistent hard contact that hitters are currently making against him. I haven’t been able to see as many games as I’d like recently, but it seems to me that Arredondo’s stat line could easily be even worse had the outfield – and by outfield, I mean Torii – not bailed him out with a couple of spectacular catches.
I’m most worried about the spike in line-drive rate. While his GO/FO ratio is up, he’s actually inducing groundballs at a slightly lower rate than ‘08 – it’s just that he’s inducing even fewer flyballs (a drop of about 6% of balls batted into play), and almost all of those are becoming line drive bullets. The BABIP looks artificially inflated, but as you point out above, there are very good stuff-related explanations for this. Scary stuff.
Food for thought
Didn’t he join the team late last year? I was in Iraq so I am not very familiar, but I remember looking at a box score one day and saying, “Arrondondo who is that?” If so how did he do right before coming up? How did he start his season in AAA (if that is where he was)? I am sure someone can answer that.
"don't worry about the past, there is not future in it."
-Yogi Berra
He came up mid-season
Maybe August?? He debuted against the White Sox, and I remember he gave up a home run to his first batter, Nick Swisher. After a week, he shut down EVERYONE. I remember an article on Preston guiding Jose mentally…
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
by vlad IS my man on May 31, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, he use to have a temper...
Also, I think it is interesting the fact that since Frankie left he hasnt been the same. I imagine there is a bit of a language barrier—one which Frankie was able to cross with Dondo. Now, who in the pen is fluent in spanish?
I dont know how great his English is but I know every time its Butcher out there talking to him on the mound, Aybar runs over to be, I assume, translator.
It seems menial but after reading all the great stats provided anaheim angel above, I dont see how it can be anything but just lack of confidence resulting in poor pitch placement or choice.
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on May 31, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm.
The language barrier thing is interesting. If nothing else, having someone to talk to through the long innings sitting in the bullpen would help keep a guy’s head in the game. Anyone know if Rudy Seanez speaks Spanish? I have been down on signing him, but perhaps having a proven veteran to talk to will help Dondo. Although, I guess Escobar would accomplish the same thing if he goes to the pen.
Keep those hammies limber, boys.
by Rally Manatee on Jun 1, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
He came up in May
May 14 was his debut.
He made 52 appearances and was stunning for most of the year. His ERA was under 1.00 as late at August 13.
In the 6 weeks he was in AAA last year before his promotion he had 10 saves and an ERA of 2.52. He is legit. Let’s see where he is in August before going crazy.
RIP Nick...
Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home
Of course scouts would break down a MI who is young and dominated near the end of last year.
They have scouting reports on everyone. EVERYONE. Especially pitchers. Major league teams employ these guys to break down teams to every pitch of every at bat and study weakness.
Dondo’s main problem is simple. He has two pitches.
One is a + fastball, the other is his sinker/splitter.
The league caught up to the fact that they sit on his sinker, and wait for him to get into hitters counts and drill the fastball.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
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