Team Stats vs. Perception

by mattwelch on Jun 20, 2009 9:20 AM PDT Comment 7 comments

Just tooling around Baseball Reference, comparing team stats, and a few gaps jump out between perception of the Angels and reality:

Perception: The Angels have a shoddy offense. Reality: We're 7th in the league in runs per game, at 4.95 (higher than in 2008, 2006 and 2005); better than the league average of 4.81, and (given the extreme difference in ballpark effects) better (on an average basis, anyway) than the Texas offense of 4.97. This while Kendrick stank and Vladdy didn't contribute (though a couple of guys have hit quite a bit better than expected).

Perception: The Angels play National League-style small ball. Reality: The team is exactly tied in sacrifice bunts with -- wait for it! -- Billy Beane's Oakland, with 18. American League teams average 17 sacrifices; the NL 29. Still, the AL runs a helluva lot more than the NL, averaging 49 steals in 64 attemps versus 39 in 55 (Scioscia, true to his form, is near the top in baseball, at 68 and 89). In fact, the American League has been stealing slightly more often than the National League, on average, all decade, so I don't even know what "National League-style small ball" means anymore, aside from "I'm an announcer and I'm lazy."

Perception: The Angels depend on a high-contact, high-average, high baserunning model for success. Reality: OK, that remains totally true. We're first in Batting Average (just like 2007!), 11th in strikeouts (just like 2008 and 2006!), 11th in walks (2002!), 12th in home runs (2007, 2006!), and 2nd in stolen bases (2008, 2007!). The good news, for those of you who have grown weary of this type of offense, is that at least we seem to be following the '07/'04/'02 model, instead of the '08/'06/'05/'03. Check out how bizarrely close these groups are to one another:

GOOD HATCHER YEARS
2009 .282/.342/.429 4.95
2007 .284/.345/.417 5.07
2004 .282/.341/.429 5.16
2002 .282/.341/.433 5.25

BAD HATCHER YEARS
2008 .268/.330/.413 4.72
2006 .274/.334/.425 4.73
2005 .270/.325/.409 4.70
2003 .268/.330/.413 4.54

I figure with the warming weather, and the return of Vlad, this offense will be above 5 runs per game, and within the top 5-7 in the league. I have also been known to be optimistic.

A final note: The last two years the Angels have hit into an awful lot of double plays -- 140 and 146. So far this year we're on pace for just 107, which would be the second-lowest total in the Scioscia era (2002, even with all those men on base, produced just 105). Though now that Vlad's back expect the GIDPs to come back with him.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

The offense has been much better lately.....

which is probably why our runs per game and other offensive stats have climbed….

I will always contend this offense is more streaky than anything……capable of going on awesome runs like this, but also capable of going into huge slumps and various 2-1, 3-2 games to follow.

Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009

by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 20, 2009 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

GIDPs

Vlad seems to be on pace for 100 by himself. Basically one every game.

If we moved Rivera and K-Mo up to 4/5, and Vladdy down to 6, I think our offense would be even better.

by Brody on Jun 20, 2009 12:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Who is saying our offense stinks?

I hear/read lots of complaints about the bullpen, and complaints about baserunning, and there have been some silly defensive lapses that I have not seen in past seasons. But I I am clearly missing any larger dialog about a poor Angels offense.

(P.S. – is there a stat someplace that counts sacrifce bunt attempts?)

We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.

by Stirrups on Jun 20, 2009 5:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that assumption is from outside fans

We have been “thought” to have a so-so offense. While this can be true when looking t the early part of the season, we are white hot on offense, with a huge number pf XBH. So all in all, we have had a steady offense so far….

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

by vlad IS my man on Jun 20, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs