Matt Holliday (Rant #1)
by anaheim angels on Jun 30, 2009 11:50 AM PDT
67 comments
Lately, there has been debate on whether or not to go after Matt Holliday or not this coming offseason. I was out of the country till yesterday, so I didnt have the chance to offer my opinion. Beware, heavy stat post after the jump.
So we all know that Matt Holliday is putting up less than expected numbers with the A's this year. But how bad has he actually been? He started off the season horribly, but over his last 46 games, hes hit .314/.432/.465. His batting average is right at his career average of .315, while his OBP is up, and slugging down. But batting is just half of the story, he has been superb in the field. He is 6th in the majors with a +5.9 UZR for LFers. Over the course of a whole season, thats a +13 mark, meaning that his fielding will be worth 1.3 wins over average over the course of a season.
But what is wrong with Holliday this year? Taking a quick glance at his peripherals show a decrease in his K% and an increase in his BB%, usually a sign of improvement. Hes also swung at less pitches this year, and improved his contact rate. So what gives? The answer lies in his balls in play. He has lost 6% of his line drives, and added 5% to his fly balls, and 1% to ground balls. This would cause his average to drop significantly, as line drives have the best chance to fall in for hits. A rule of thumb (but extremely crude way) of predicting BABIP is LD% +.120, but Holliday has had a career correlation of LD rate +.150 (yeah I know, really lazy on my part) so Holliday's BABIP should be around .154+.150=.304, very close to his actual .309. Hollidays career BABIP is .351, and his career LD% is 20%. So if Holliday's LD% returns to normal, around 50 points should be added to his BABIP (+60 for LDs, -10 for loss of ground ball and fly ball hits). So as long as Holliday can hit line drives, his batting average should be fine, and as long as he can get walks, his OBP will be fine as well (fine as in near career norms).
Another of the more shocking trends is his complete loss of power. This is even more strange because he is hitting more fly balls, which should result in more HRs, and show more power (at least in Isolated Power (SLG-AVG), which only takes into account extra base hits for slugging). His power is down however because his HR/FB is way down, to 9.3%, down from his 16.7 career percentage. Is this just fluctuation, or is it due to the park switch? Determining RF/CF/LF from the 75 and 105 degree marks and using hittrackeronline.com, last year Holliday hit 3 HRs to RF, 15 to CF, and 7 to LF. In 2007 he hit 7 to RF, 12 to CF, and 17 to LF. In 2006 he hit 12 to RF, 10 to CF, and to 14 LF. Coors has HR factors (courtesy of hardballtimes, and LF and 1/2 LCF combined, CF and 1/4 of LCF and RCF combined, and RF and 1/2 of RCF combined) of LF at 128, CF at 104, and RF at 127. McAfee's factors are 98 to LF, 76 to CF, and 97 in RF.
Heres adjusting his HRs if he played McAfee instead of Coors
2006(C)-RF-12, CF-10, LF-14: 2006(M)-RF-9.3, CF-7.3, LF-10.7. Holliday loses 9 HRs.
2007(C)-RF-7, CF-12, LF-17: 2007(M)-RF-5.3, CF-8.8, LF-13. Holliday loses another 9 HRs by playing in McAfe-
2008(C)-RF-3, CF-10, LF-14: 2008(M)-RF-2.3, CF-7.3, LF-10.7. This time he loses 5 HRs.
Now obviously his HRs wouldnt be this depressed because he plays only half his games at McAfee, so he would possibly only lose around half of the numbers I just calculated. Angels Stadium is 100 to LF and 108 to RF, so Holliday would still hit for enough power. This conclusion would be supported by a higher SLG when he plays away, which doesnt appear, although his total line does improve significantly over his home line, but it is still way to small of a sample size to draw conclusions from. While Holiday may not slug .600 again, he should still be over .510 for the rest of his career.
So now that I have dissected his season so far up to this point, how should we value him as a free agent?
Despite all his struggles, Holliday has still put up 2.2 wins above replacement (WAR) so far this year. On his current pace, Holliday will be worth 4.8 WAR over the season, but he will improve, and will likely end up in the around 5.5 WAR range. Assuming such, over the past 4 years, Holliday has been worth 4.4, 7.9, 6.2 and 5.5 WAR. It is safe I think to predict he will be worth around 5.8 WAR over the next 3 seasons. One of his top comps on BB-R is Jason Bay, and the players look very similar, except offset by one year. Holliday's first season was when he was 24, Bays when he was 25. Bay also went through a rough patch, where he OPS+ 93 one year. But he bounced back and is now one of the premier players. (but I digress)
But assuming an average of 5 WAR over 5 seasons, and assuming a 4.3 Million dollar per marginal win added (the economy makes this number lower than the current 4.5, as total monies will likely be less than last offseason), over the course of a 1 year deal, Holliday would likely be worth something like 21.5 Million dollars per season. But when signing a longer deal, the player gives up around 10% due to the security of the deal, also because there is risk of injury/ineffectiveness. Taking off about 2 Million extra (per season) to compensate likely less effective defense and base-running to aging, we arrive at about 5 years, 85 Million, which is probably still a tad bit high for him. If Holliday wants to see those numbers, he is really going to have to rebound during the second half. If he doesnt rebound, teams will likely project him around 4-4.5 WAR per season, and drop up to 4 Million a season off of his price, and his market price would probably be around 5/70.
From all accounts, Holliday loves SoCal, and Boras listens to his clients. If Holliday wants a deal done with the Angels, Boras will make it happen. If he asks for the most money, Boras will also make that happen. Also, Holliday is very close to Garret Atkins, who grew up in Irvine (in the house next to mine), and Atkins likely speaks favorably of SoCal.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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i think it just comes down to Vlad vs. Holliday
holliday might have 2 or 3 stellar years over his contract whereas vlad i feel doesn’t have ANY left in him at this point
RIP Nick Adenhart
by ihearhowie2.0 on Jun 30, 2009 1:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
in favor of....
RIP Nick Adenhart
by ihearhowie2.0 on Jun 30, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rivera
The Angels will receive nearly as much offensive production from Rivera as they would from Holliday, with Rivera’s superior defensive capabilities making up any difference—except for the $10M+ more per season that Holliday would command. The team can find options as good as Holliday in the context of the team, such as moving Rivera to RF and Figgins to LF, opening up 3B for Wood.
This entire discussion is predicated upon a premise that Holliday would sign for less to play in Anaheim than elsewhere. It figures he will receive offers from several teams, not the least of which will be the Yankees, who are seeing contracts end for Damon and Matsui, and who are watching Nady prepare for his second Tommy John surgery (which has a success rate of under 20%).
Do you really think the Angels will outbid the Yankees? Do you really think a Boras client will take a lower bid?
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 4:25 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree with it all
except the fielding. From everything I’ve read Holliday is a good-to-very-good fielder, More than once you’ve said hes a poor fielder. Where are you getting this from? I honestly don’t know either way, hoping for some enlightenment…
by dmhead on Jul 1, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have spoken with friends in Denver
Big Rox fans. Their take is that Holliday plays deep so he can run up on the ball and keep it in front of him (he makes a fair number of sliding catches), because if the ball is hit over his head, he’s screwed—he gets completely unglued with balls hit behind him and towards the wall. He apparently either is afraid of hitting the wall (the knock on Abreu) or he just has horrible instincts, even after all these years in the game.
Likewise, he doesn’t move well laterally. Balls hit to his left or right tend to drop in. I suppose Torii could assist on balls hit to the LF gap, but he ain’t getting any younger and there is no reason for him to have to carry any LF not named Manny.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
But that’s not taking into consideration the huge outfield in Denver, which may be why he always played so deep. Also, with all due respect to your friends in Mile High, that’s all anecdotal evidence. I’m not completely sold on defensive stats, but his UZR and Range Factors have all been positive with the exception of 2006. That has to count for something, right? Again, I agree that he probably isn’t worth what he’ll be asking, and one of the NY teams will likely grab him, anyways. But I can see a lot worse fits for the Angels if he happens to fall in their lap.
by dmhead on Jul 1, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you want to take a mulligan on this?
But that’s not taking into consideration the huge outfield in Denver, which may be why he always played so deep.
A deeper OF doesn’t mandate the fielder play deeper. If anything, he would play a more shallow position his relative distance between the wall and the cut of the infield grass to cut off the bloops and lazy hits which would otherwise fall for singles.
He would do this because (drum roll, please…) he would go back on deeper fly balls. This is something Holliday apparently isn’t comfortable doing.
I know you live by data. That’s fine. My friends spent most of the last four seasons watching Holliday play. I’ll go with their impressions first, since their observations can mean more than cold data without a point of reference.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you and your friends.
I refuse to accept any existing “data” concerning defensive abilities other than total errors versus total chances.
Noen of that zone rating nad uzr crap passes my smell test.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 1, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You both make me laugh...
Twisted folks.
by matt92130 on Jul 1, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ignorance must, truly, be bliss.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 1, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohhh you're a clever one...
“I refuse to accept an existing data…” What would you accept? let me know and I’ll get it for you. (Sigh) Jesus…
If Matt Holliday joins the Angels, it should be a day of celebration. Who gives a shit if he ever equals his Rockies numbers again. We all know playing in Colorado balloons stats. For $12M-$14M per, I’ll glady take his AL stats. Who else are you going to put out there? Vlad? He’ll be 35 when next year starts where as Holliday will have turned 30 a few months before the season starts.
This is a no brainer. You and Kaplan are choosing to take only this year into account, not his career numbers. He’ll hit around .280, knock 20-25HRs, and drive in 90-100. Lots of factors could be knocking his numbers down this year… bad surrounding line-up, tons of foul territory, adjusting to AL pitching, putting too much pressure on himself…. who knows, I just know he would make a great addition to our club next year.
His defensive numbers are stupid. He plays well enough, that’s the bottom line. If your arguement is that he plays deep so it doesn’t get over his head, then you don’t have a leg to stand on. Maybe you should look at that like a sign of maturity and great baseball IQ. He knows his own strengths and weaknesses… good for him, and hopefully great for us.
by matt92130 on Jul 1, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't give a shit about Matt Holliday one way or another. You guys keep figuring that out all by yourself.
I do give a shit about defensive sabremetrics. I think that they are horseshit, and that people who quote them and leverage them are either blind-faith acolytes with poor or missing critical thinking skills, or just plain stupid.
Now, knowing that, go back and re-read my post. In that context, what’s your problem?
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 1, 2009 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Calm down over there
No one (including myself) said any defensive stat was the end-all to this discussion. I qualified it myself saying I wasn’t completely sold on them. But to say they’re horseshit? Seems a bit close-minded to me. I respect the opinion of George and his Denver buddies, but are they professional scouts? Excuse me for wanting to take their opinions with a grain of salt. Since this post started I’ve looked into different reports on Holliday (mostly non-stat based), and pretty much all of them sum up his glove as average to above average. But to hell with that. Some dudes in Denver say hes awful so I guess he must be… Stupid me. I bow to your critical-thinking skills.
by dmhead on Jul 2, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I admit that I have closed my mind to ZR/UZR/Range Factors. I did that a long time ago.
Instead of some never-ending, open-ended, waffling on the subject, I thought about it for a bit and made a decision that I am happy with. Door shut on UZR. Done.
And that was all that I was doing. I saw an opportunity to spout out again that I reject UZR, so I did. I have no idea what information anybody – you included – might be using to contend with George’s Denver buddies. And I don’t care about the main subject matter in this context.
But let me demonstrate some consistency here and bag on defensive sabremetrics again since the opportunity has presented itself: you imply that there is some degree of possible unworthiness with respect towards the personal, historical, observations of George’s buddies. If that scepticism has anything to do with the whole “who you gonna trust, your lyin’ eyes or my ability to punch fun numbers into my calculator?” tenet of the sabremetric religion, then your decision to bow to my superior critical thinking skills concerning defensive effectieness was the appropriate response. Your humble submission of inferiority is accepted.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 2, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK then.
Let’s get back to your original point about rejecting any defensive stat that doesn’t include “total errors vs. total chances.” You couldn’t possibly be talking about fielding % because obviously you’re too smart for that. So what constitutes a “chance” and whose keeping track?
by dmhead on Jul 2, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You got that exactly right.
Calculating “chance” already involves human subjectivity, and that’s enough of that for me. What’s an error? Precisely. But that’s the one the lives in the rule book. That’s the one that gets officially recorded. That’s the one that gets memorialized. That’s the one that is biased in favor of the home team. That’s the one that gets argued about sufficiently as it is.
That is bad enough, and I ain’t completely happy about it, but at least everyone is honest enough to state that the subjectivity involved makes that stat unworthy of any attempts to extend it, or to process it further, or to elevate it to some rarified level akin to a hard science.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 2, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading is FUNdamental
This is a no brainer. You and Kaplan are choosing to take only this year into account, not his career numbers. He’ll hit around .280, knock 20-25HRs, and drive in 90-100. Lots of factors could be knocking his numbers down this year… bad surrounding line-up, tons of foul territory, adjusting to AL pitching, putting too much pressure on himself…. who knows, I just know he would make a great addition to our club next year.
Stirrups wrote no such thing.
I wrote no such thing. In fact, what I wrote was that his performance in Oakland has validated the knock against him that his stats in 2006-08 were inflated by playing half his games in Coors. Far from ignoring his career numbers, I am acknowledging the huge schism between his home and road stats in the last two seasons.
Instead of projecting your biases onto others, you might enjoy attempting to read what those others have to say.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember
Watching a World Baseball Classic game, the first year they had it, and Holliday BUTCHERED a fly ball he had to go back on at Angel Stadium. Ever since then I’ve considered his OF instincts as poor.
by Sethy on Jul 1, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine...
I misinterpreted you and Stirrups remarks. I’ll bow to that.
I still stand pat on my opinion for signing Holliday for next season if he is available.
by matt92130 on Jul 2, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad
I still hope he signs for maybe 2 more years with the Halos. I still stop what I’m doing to watch whenever he comes to bat… Even though it’s a ground into double play usually haha.
by Monkeyspanked on Jun 30, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
haha me too
i hope he finishes his career as a halo but if he doesn’t its ok
I hate Jose Guillen. R.I.P. Nick Adenhart, Marquis Cooper
by JoseGuillenSux on Jun 30, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad hit with luminous resistance power of all time Angel player.
Lately Valddy connecting for long ball in match like trying to hook heavy donkey cart up to donkey.
I am the Iron Man
by 44FAN on Jun 30, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at this differently
First of all, I appreciate all the propeller-head wonkiness of the work you put into your post. I don’t mean to be dismissive of the effort you put forth.
I prefer a more elementary approach. I look at the AB Holliday has had at Petco and Dodger stadia during the last two seasons. The reason is that these two parks very closely mimic the atmosphere (literally) of Angel Stadium, with most of the games played at night and with a dense marine layer.
Holiday was a force in those two parks in 2006 (as he was everywhere) but he has otherwise been neutralized in his appearances in 2007 and 2008 in SD and LA. Holliday’s lack of production (in the view of him as an elite OF) is clearly seen in 2007 and 2008.
My approach is admittedly less scientific than yours and more intuitive, but the fact remains as an Angel he would play half his games in Anaheim, and 6/7 of those games would be at night. Aside from the occasional Santa Ana wind conditions, the evenings do get damp and any player who has been on that team comments on how balls which would be out in other parks die at the wall on an Anaheim evening.
My guess is that the guy wearing green and yellow right now is much closer to the player the Angels would place in the OF than the one who wore purple and black. For the amount of money he is expected to command in the free agent market, I believe the Angels have much better options to explore.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 8:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats why I did the whole HR thing.
Angels stadium, as I mentioned above, is exactly league average for HRs to LF, and more than average for HRs to RF. Yes, Holliday wouldnt hit as many HRs, but he still would hit 28+ in all likelihood. Also, Holliday’s D has not been mediocre, it has been consistently above average, and can you honestly say that you wouldnt want his bat in the lineup? Yes Rivera is awesome, we know that. But Holliday does not displace Rivera. Vlad goes to DH, and Holliday goes to LF, and Juan to RF.
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 1, 2009 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I can see you have a major mancrush here, but the Angels don’t function that way (thank God!)
You are working the numbers to arrive at your conclusion, not following the numbers to see where they lead. There is plenty of evidence—which doesn’t require extrapolation of data—to show that it is unlikely Holliday will be a major power bat with half his games being played in Angel Stadium. We can expect he’ll be looking for Vlad/Torii dollars, and to earn that he would need to be either a huge bopper or a moderate one with a gold glove.
If he wants to work for free, I’d take him in a heartbeat. If he wanted to sign for the sort of money that landed Dunn (for example), I’d say “why not?”. But all evidence is that he will be seeking maximum dollars, which is his right.
You seem to cling to this scrap of apocrypha, which says that he’d like to play in SoCal. Well, duh! Show me the player who wouldn’t like to play a summer game in a park noticeably free of humidity, and in front of friendly fans. The Dodgers and Angels both provide excellent environments for a player, and (of course) the bank books capable of making an enormous investment in a player like Holliday. It would be stupid of him to say anything negative about playing in SoCal. In fact, we do recall similar statements from another Boras client, Teixeira, who waxed rhapsodic about how wonderful it was to play in Anaheim—while we know he had no intention whatsoever of remaining in Anaheim as a player.
Holliday is going to chase the dollars. Handicapping right now gives a high probability that the most dollars will float out of Yankee Stadium, as that team looks for a new LF. The history of the Angels shows us Arte will not get involved in a bidding war, and we saw last winter that Hank will simply drop an outrageous offer (Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett) to land the player he covets.
The Angels won’t pay what the Yankees (and others) will. Holliday isn’t taking a pay cut because he thinks playing in front of Anaheim fans is such a great gig. Unless something very unexpected happens between now and then, the chance he’ll be an Angel is miniscule.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not clinging to Holliday loves socal
Doesnt even enter into my argument until the very end, where I’m saying he might be willing to take the Angels offer over another similar one (ala GMJ taking the Angels 5/50 over the Giants 5/50). This isnt a SIGN HOLLIDAY NOW! post, this is a ‘how much money should Holliday command should the Angels be interested in him’ post. There is no mancrush here, Holliday is a good if not great player, and less than half a season doesn’t turn him into garbage.
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 1, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Garbage"?!?
I called him “garbage”?
Nope…re-read all the posts and I never did. Too much hyperbole is bad for your complexion, by the way.
And if the whole “SoCal” angle isn’t important (or even factual), why bother to bring it up? These players are modern Hessians, and they’re going to go where the most money is. It is highly unlikely that this spot for Holliday will be in Anaheim. As stated before, it is far more likely the Evil Empire will make the (by far) largest bid for Holliday, unless they outbid the Sox for Bay, in which case Holliday winds up in front of the Green Monster, which is really the idea defensive location for him.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pass
Mediocre D and overrated O.
Okay, maybe I should cut down on the hyperboles.
On the other post, people were bringing up SoCal all the time, so I figured I might as well reference it, but not make it the main point, or even an important point in the argument. I tried to stay completely objective on this. Notice I also didnt say whether the Angels should sign him or not in the post, or where I thought he would wind up, because this is an objective piece, instead putting my opinions in the comments.
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 1, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't argue with Kaplan.. Not worth the time.
He knows everything. God, I just hate living in HIS world.
by matt92130 on Jul 1, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not "everything"
But certainly “something”.
Does that give me some sort of advantage over you? Apparently.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you knew "something"...
Than you’d write something intelligent. As far as an advantage over me, glad you think so…
by matt92130 on Jul 2, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
woah woah you two, neutral corners
no need for debate to get this snippy, fellas.
This team is gonna kill me.
by HaloDutch on Jul 3, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry...
but Vlad is gone. Even if he picks it up the rest of the way, I can’t see Tony gambling on him one more year. Much like with GA last year, they will explore a younger, more productive player to give those AB’s to.
by dmhead on Jul 1, 2009 9:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What are these things called 'stats' that you speak of?
I see red people
by The Limey on Jul 1, 2009 10:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice work
This is a very proficient sabermetric argument in behalf of Matt Holliday. However, I have to agree with George that the point is pretty much moot because Holliday won’t be an Angel next year. The Angels front office has amply demonstrated that they couldn’t care less about sabermetrics, and Scott Boras has also amply demonstrated that his negotiating methods don’t mesh with Arte Moreno’s expectations. But I don’t think it’s the end of the world in this case. Most of the discussion about Matt Holliday has focused on his home/road splits, but there are other context-specific factors that I believe drive his value down considerably.
Age. Holliday will be 30 by the beginning of spring training. In other words, he’ll be past the median age of peak performance (about 28), and his new team will be paying top money for what is statistically likely to be poorer performance. You would have to readjust your predictions to account for his decline, which, over a long-term deal, will be considerable.
League. His underperformance this year may not only be due to a new ballpark, but also a new league. Holliday is facing tougher pitching now than he was in Colorado. This isn’t a definitive cause (just look at Jason Bay), but you only need to consider the results of interleague play over the last few years to see that the American League is indeed tougher than the National League.
Protection. Holliday is a man among boys in the Oakland lineup. He’s been hitting ahead of Jack Cust (.224 AVG, 30.0 K%) and Jason Giambi (.197 AVG, 25.2 K%), who are also both helpless against left-handed pitching. I think opponents have decided not to let Matt Holliday beat them. He’s seeing fewer strikes than ever before, and his massive drop in performance against fastballs and sliders suggests to me that he’s seeing fewer hittable pitches. So shouldn’t hitting in a better lineup improve his numbers? Maybe yes, maybe no. He may get better pitches to hit, but he’d also be swinging more often. I think right now he’s in a mode where he’s expecting to get pitched around, and that patience may disappear in the future. It’s hard to say, but it’s a reason to be cautious. Fangraphs weighs OBP heavily, and if his OBP drops his value drops as well, even with an increase in SLG.
Defense. I have serious issues with UZR’s valuation of outfielders. In this category I’m willing to give scouting reports a lot of consideration, and Holliday’s defense isn’t thought very highly of. Not only that, keep in mind that left-field is also the easiest position to fill, so even if Holliday is above average, he’s not truly as valuable as say, an above-average shortstop. This is more of a philosophical issue I have with replacement-player theory. I think the fact that there is a bigger market for mediocre outfielders (a smaller variance, in math terms) makes an above-average one less valuable.
If you throw all that into a bag and shake it, I have second thoughts about signing Holliday to a big deal. He’s a very good player, and I’d certainly love to have him under the right circumstances, with the ridiculous spending Yankees out there, I’m inclined to let them take the risk of overpaying for his services and just be happy with Juan Rivera. Besides, does anyone know if Brandon Wood can play the outfield?
by Suboptimal on Jul 1, 2009 3:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
VERY elegantly said
If you throw all that into a bag and shake it, I have second thoughts about signing Holliday to a big deal. He’s a very good player, and I’d certainly love to have him under the right circumstances, with the ridiculous spending Yankees out there, I’m inclined to let them take the risk of overpaying for his services and just be happy with Juan Rivera. Besides, does anyone know if Brandon Wood can play the outfield?
I doubt he has any experience in LF in pro ball. However:
*If the Angels sign Figgins to a deal, then he can play LF and Wood can play 3B. Come hell or high water, Brandon Wood is playing somewhere at the MLB level next year.
*If the Angels don’t sign Figgins, Chris Pettit has been getting it done at SLC and can conceivably replace Figgins at leadoff and play LF, with Rivera sliding over to RF. Again, Wood would be at 3B.
There are options the Angels can pursue which don’t involve allocating $14M/yr (for example, since that figure was promoted here) to Holliday. That money can otherwise be deployed to sign Lackey, or to snare another free agent.
by George Kaplan on Jul 1, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pettit
Busted up his hand or something. He’s going to miss a hefty chunk of 2009.
by Sethy on Jul 1, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hamate bone
From what I read, the injury takes about 30-45 days to heal from a medical standpoint, but the hand is still tender for a time afterwards and the recovery time for a baseball hitter is better measured in months. He will undoubtedly spend his Winter playing ball and working to get his feel and timing back.
That said, if he can get his hand back and ready by Spring, then he should be contributing to the team in 2010. I think he brings more to the party than Willits.
by George Kaplan on Jul 2, 2009 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
But do you think he’d be ready to be a full time lead off hitter by next year? Its so hard to know what’s real with these guys in AAA thanks to that damn ballpark…
by dmhead on Jul 2, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True that
The PCL is a horrible barometer of whether one is ready for MLB pitching.
What I had read on Pettit, though, was that he was hitting everything and anything, after being semi-DL for most of the last two seasons. This year was his chance to break out and show what he could do, and he was doing just that…
until he broke the bone in his hand. That really sucks.
by George Kaplan on Jul 2, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully
he gets back in time to get enough playing time in so the team can figure out where he falls on the depth chart next year. In my own little ideal world, they’d resign Abreu to split DH/corner duties with Rivera and let Pettit, Rodriguez, and maybe even Terry Evans fight it out for the other corner spot and spend that extra cash on a starting pitcher.
by dmhead on Jul 2, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a bad idea
I think Lackey will price himself off the Angel budget.
by George Kaplan on Jul 2, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong on two counts
The Angels front office has amply demonstrated that they couldn’t care less about sabermetrics, and Scott Boras has also amply demonstrated that his negotiating methods don’t mesh with Arte Moreno’s expectations.
The Angels employ at least one person who can fairly be described as a sabermetrician, and their defensive metrics in particular are said to be pretty darn cutting edge by those I’ve spoken to who are in the know (and who are biased toward sabermetrics). Yes, management comes to different conclusions about what to do with those fancy numbers, and many of those conclusions are different than those that traditional SABR-types have championed, but those are two separate concepts.
As for this Boras meme, I don’t know how many Boras clients it will take to make it die, but the fact is we continue to sign and hold and extend various clients of Scott Boras. You remember when Nick Adenhart died, right? Remember that press conference? Remember that agent? You know, the guy who sits in Arte Moreno’s box a whole lot?
by mattwelch on Jul 2, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Huns had their shamans.
The Native Americans had their medicine men.
European kings had their wizards.
Tribal chiefs had their witch doctors.
Conjurers, Enchanters, Enchantresses, Fortune-tellers, Genies, Mediums, Prophets, Seers, Sirens, Soothsayers, Sorcerers, Tricksters, Charmers, Diabolists, Diviners, Necromancers, Laptop Owners, Excel Specialists, and MySQL DBAs.
Throughout history there have been those who rule, and those who ply magic on behalf of those who rule. The authority of the Ruler does not legitimaize the magic of the Diviner.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 2, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did not know the Angels had a propellerhead or two in the front office. I will retract my statement, although it does seem clear that the management places varying degrees of emphasis on sabermetric principles. The Abreu signing must have been a coup for the stat guys, the Torii signing not so much.
With regard to Boras, he seems pretty cordial with the organization. But I don’t think Arte Moreno will get dragged into a bidding war, which is what it takes to land a highly coveted Boras client. His strategy seems to be to make a reasonable offer and then expect the player to want to play for him. That’s just not how Boras rolls, and it doesn’t seem that his clients do either.
by Suboptimal on Jul 3, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Correct
With regard to Boras, he seems pretty cordial with the organization. But I don’t think Arte Moreno will get dragged into a bidding war, which is what it takes to land a highly coveted Boras client. His strategy seems to be to make a reasonable offer and then expect the player to want to play for him. That’s just not how Boras rolls, and it doesn’t seem that his clients do either.
We’ve had Boras clients in the past (Weaver(s), Schoeweis, etc) but many have been through signing rookies. There haven’t been many top-line free agents, because Boras’ style doesn’t mesh with Arte’s. Boras wants to drag it out for weeks and weeks and wring every last penny from the negotiations, and Arte wants a quick deal.
by George Kaplan on Jul 3, 2009 5:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boras' client list seems to confirm this analysis
Link.
by mattwelch on Jul 3, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus...
He has those seats in the dugout section closest to the spot behind home plate, and is seen often in the camera shot from CF when one or more of his clients is playing. You usually see him there when JerWe is pitching, and he was a fixture when Teixeira was with the team.
These days, not so much. If the Tigers are in town, he is often there to support Ordonez, and the Red Sox sport many of his clients (Dice-K, Ellsbury, JD Drew, Varitek). Otherwise, he seems largely MIA from his perch in the dugout seats.
by George Kaplan on Jul 3, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we for once please quit the talk of letting Figgins go or moving him from a position he is clearly a master at?!?!?!? Chone Figgins belongs in a Halo uniform and on 3rd base or short. He gets first consideration over anyone else! Why would you even consider moving him to the outfield?
by firebird81 on Jul 2, 2009 9:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Wood
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 3, 2009 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
Assuming the Angels retain Figgins—and that isn’t guaranteed in the free agent market—then he would have to move to LF and make room for Wood.
by George Kaplan on Jul 3, 2009 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
George, you don’t move someone with Figgins’ capability out of the infield to make room for a minor leaguer. Any team that would do that would deserve to lose the season. I like Wood, too, but Chone Figgins is our 3rd baseman and he’s one of the best in the Majors. Every single game this guy makes at least one AMAZING play. Only a completely INCOMPETENT manager would move him at this point to make room for Brandon friggin’ Wood.
by firebird81 on Jul 3, 2009 8:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's an insult to Figgins
The fact remains he can be a factor in any position he selects and has experience in LF. He has started 24 games in LF, 23 in RF and 233 in CF. Again, this isn’t a late-inning switch, but a start in the position.
As for Wood, he has all the tools to develop into an excellent 3B as well. Those of us who have followed the team recall that the Figgins of 2009 at 3B wasn’t always that reliable—he progressed from 10 E in 34 games in 2006, to 13 in 99 games in 2007, to 6 in 105 last year. It isn’t unreasonable to expect similar growth defensively from Wood.
The ultimate point is that retaining Figgins in the lineup and adding Wood’s bat makes the Angel offense that much better. It is no slight to move Figgins to LF, just an indicator of his versatility. A team forecasted without Abreu and Guerrero will need some extra octane in the lineup.
And all of this is moot if Figgins doesn’t re-sign with the Angels this Winter.
by George Kaplan on Jul 3, 2009 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"you don't move someone with Figgins' capability" ... or do you?
you don’t move someone with Figgins’ capability out of the infield to make room for a minor leaguer. Any team that would do that would deserve to lose the season. I like Wood, too, but Chone Figgins is our 3rd baseman and he’s one of the best in the Majors. Every single game this guy makes at least one AMAZING play. Only a completely INCOMPETENT manager would move him at this point to make room for Brandon friggin’ Wood.
1) What’s “Figgins’ capability”? If you look at the Baseball Reference page of <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=figgich01:Chone%20Figgins&st=int&compage=30&age=30" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=figgich01:Chone%20Figgins&st=int&compage=30&age=30" >most comparable players to Chone Figgins through the end of his age-30 season, the first guy on that list is <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbi01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbi01.shtml" >Bip Roberts. Chone through age 30 hit .290/.356/.387 with 482 runs scored and 238 stolen bases; Bip hit .296/.365/.387 with 476 runs scored and 198 stolen bases. Roberts was actually a much better hitter (OPS+ of 108, compared to 96), given the difference in run-scoring contexts. Both could and did play all over the diamond, though Figgy settled in at third better than Bip ever played a position. So, question — would you weep if Bip Roberts walked after his age-31 year, knowing he was going to get a multi-year contract and a big payday? Depending on circumstances, I sure wouldn’t. And indeed the Padres let him walk, and promptly went from third place to <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/1996.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/1996.shtml" >first.
2) Have there been instances where infielders roughly of Figgins’ capability have been let go “to make room for a minor leaguer,” and did the team indeed “lose the season”? Why yes, and even on the Angels, and sometimes the team then won!
- After a 2007 season in which he won a Gold Glove and finished 15th in the MVP voting, the Angels traded away 32-year-old <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreor01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreor01.shtml" >Orlando Cabrera to make room for minor leaguer <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aybarer01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aybarer01.shtml" >Erick Aybar. The team went on to win a franchise-record 100 games, while receiving <a href=“http:// ”http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=OPS&split=82&group=7&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=OPS&split=82&group=7&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg" >nearly identical production from the shortstop position as Cabrera’s Chicago White Sox, at a fraction of the price.
- After 2006, the Angels let 30-year-old <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kennead01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kennead01.shtml" >Adam Kennedy walk, though he had been a solid hitter and good defender (and good baserunner) for several years running, to make room for a minor leaguer named <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrho01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrho01.shtml" >Howie Kendrick. Kennedy promptly hit .219 and a toothless .280 (though he has rebounded so far this year), while Kendrick hit .322 and .306 (though he has eaten dukey so far this year). The Angels won in 2007, won in 2008, and will win in 2009.
- After 2005, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinbe01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinbe01.shtml" >Bengie Molina, arguably the best catcher in Major League history to never make an All-star game, was let go after his age-30 season for a minor leaguer named <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathije01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathije01.shtml" >Jeff Mathis. When Mathis bombed, he was quickly replaced by a minor leaguer named <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml" >Mike Napoli. Who, ever since, has been better (and significantly cheaper, though less durable) than Bengie Molina. The Angels did lose that season, though narrowly.
- After 1996, the Angels traded away the 28-year-old, slick-fielding would-be phenom <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snowj.01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snowj.01.shtml" >J.T. Snow, who had hit 41 homers the previous two years, to make way for a minor leaguer named <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/erstada01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/erstada01.shtml" >Darin Erstad. Though Snow had a career year in ’97, and was a good player for almost a decade after the trade; and though the return for Snow was the ridiculously inadequate <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/watsoal01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/watsoal01.shtml" >Allen Watson, Erstad was an extraordinary player in ’97, ’98 and 2000; and still good enough in 2002 to Make the Catch (and several hundred others besides).
- After 1985, the Angels — very controversially — let go of future Hall of Famer <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carewro01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carewro01.shtml" >Rod Carew, to make room for a little-known minor leaguer (and free agent compensation pick) named <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/joynewa01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/joynewa01.shtml" >Wally Joyner. Wally hit .290 with 22 homers and 100 RBI, finished 8th in the MVP voting; the Angels made the playoffs for the first time in five years, and got to within one strike of the World Series.
- In 1962, second baseman <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moranbi02.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moranbi02.shtml" >Billy Moran was the Angels’ best player, scoring 90 runs and hitting 17 homers in offense-killing Dodger Stadium, while making the All-star team and finishing 13th in MVP voting. He was still good in ‘63, with an OPS+ of 97. In mid-’64, during his age-30 year, the Angels traded him for some spare parts to make room for a minor leaguer named <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/knoopbo01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/knoopbo01.shtml" >Bobby Knoop. Moran was out of baseball 175 at bats later; meanwhile, over the next four seasons Knoop won three Gold Gloves, racked up two top-25 MVP finishes, and made the All-star team. The Angels were never great in this era, but they were also never terrible.
Now, are there instances of this strategy not working out? Oh hell yes there are, and recently, too. But you said you don’t move someone that good to make room for a minor leaguer, and that if you do, you deserve to lose. That just ain’t necessarily so.
3) Finally, you say “Brandon friggin’ Wood”? Fair enough. In response, I’ll say: <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thondi01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thondi01.shtml" >Dickie friggin’ Thon, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brunato01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brunato01.shtml" >Tom friggin’ Brunansky, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr01.shtml" >Brian friggin’ Harper, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mullira01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mullira01.shtml" >Rance friggin’ Mulliniks, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aikenwi01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aikenwi01.shtml" >Willie Mays friggin’ Aikens, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/easlemi01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/easlemi01.shtml" >Mike friggin’ Easler, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/landrke01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/landrke01.shtml" >Ken friggin’ Landreaux, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/montawi01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/montawi01.shtml" >Willie friggin’ Montanez, <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/callaal01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/callaal01.shtml" >Alberto friggin’ Callaspo, and <a href=“http:// ”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bicheda01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bicheda01.shtml" >Dante friggin’ Bichette. Sometimes the guys you don’t make room for end up outperforming the veterans you treasure, and for a fraction of the cost. The trick is guessing right when that might happen.
If I was running the Angels, I’d let someone else reward Figgins for his great season (and be on the hook for his ages 32-34, which is when players tend to plummet in performance), give Brandon Wood the keys to third base for a half-decade, use the draft picks to continue re-stocking the farm system, and spend the savings on making sure the RH/DH positions have enough pop for at least next year. We can and should disagree about all that, but absolutist statements say more about you than they do about the underlying argument.
by mattwelch on Jul 3, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Look, if the link system ain't gonna work, then I ain't gonna fix it. Goddammit.
by mattwelch on Jul 3, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm gonna rec that, even though it is highly unreadable,
merely out of a grand level of respect for the massive amount of effort that obviously went into that post. That must be the most researched and cross-referenced comment in the history of HH, and I can discern some serious head-smackin’ going on throughout.
My guess is that the apostrophes and bullet formatting hosed linkage functionality.
“Preview” would proabably have warned you, but that would have just pissed you off before we got a chance to see all the work!!!
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
by Stirrups on Jul 3, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
your ideas intrigue me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter
This team is gonna kill me.
by HaloDutch on Jul 3, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Version with the links between paragraphs
George, you don’t move someone with Figgins’ capability out of the infield to make room for a minor leaguer. Any team that would do that would deserve to lose the season. I like Wood, too, but Chone Figgins is our 3rd baseman and he’s one of the best in the Majors. Every single game this guy makes at least one AMAZING play. Only a completely INCOMPETENT manager would move him at this point to make room for Brandon friggin’ Wood.
1) What’s “Figgins’ capability”? If you look at the Baseball Reference page of most comparable players to Chone Figgins through the end of his age-30 season, the first guy on that list is Bip Roberts. Chone has hit .290/.356/.387 with 482 runs scored and 238 stolen bases; Bip at 30 had hit .296/.365/.387 with 476 runs scored and 198 stolen bases. Roberts was actually a much better hitter (OPS+ of 108, compared to 96), given the difference in run-scoring contexts. Both could and did play all over the diamond, though Figgy settled in at third better than Bip ever played a position. So, question — would you weep if Bip Roberts walked after his age-31 year, knowing he was going to get a multi-year contract and a big payday? Depending on circumstances, I sure wouldn’t. And indeed the Padres let him walk, and promptly went from third place to first.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=figgich01:Chone%20Figgins&st=int&compage=30&age=30
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/1996.shtml
2) Have there been instances where infielders roughly of Figgins’ capability have been let go “to make room for a minor leaguer,” and did they indeed “lose the season”? Why yes, and even on the Angels!
- After a 2007 season in which he won a Gold Glove and finished 15th in the MVP voting, the Angels traded away 32-year-old Orlando Cabrera to make room for minor leaguer Erick Aybar. The team went on to win a franchise-record 100 games, while receiving nearly identical production from shortstop position as Cabrera’s Chicago White Sox, at a fraction of the price.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreor01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aybarer01.shtml
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=OPS&split=82&group=7&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg
- After 2006, the Angels let 30-year-old Adam Kennedy walk, though he had been a solid hitter and good defender (and good baserunner) for several years running, to make room for a minor leaguer named Howie Kendrick. Kennedy promptly hit .219 and a toothless .280 (though he has rebounded so far this year), while Kendrick hit .322 and .306 (though he has eaten dukey so far this year). The Angels won in 2007, won in 2008, and will win in 2009.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kennead01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrho01.shtml
- After 2005, Bengie Molina, arguably the best catcher in Major League history to never make an All-star game, was let go after his age-30 season for a minor leaguer named Jeff Mathis. When Mathis bombed, he was quickly replaced by a minor leaguer named Mike Napoli. Who, ever since, has been better (and significantly cheaper) than Bengie Molina. The Angels did lose that season, though narrowly.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinbe01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathije01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml
- After 1996, the Angels traded away the 28-year-old, slick-fielding would-be phenom J.T. Snow, who had hit 41 homers the previous two years, to make way for a minor leaguer named Darin Erstad. Though Snow had a career year in ’97, and was a good player for almost a decade after that; and though the trade return for Snow was the ridiculously inadequate Allen Watson, Erstad was an extraordinary player in ’97, ’98 and 2000; and still good enough in 2002 to Make the Catch (and several hundred others besides).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snowj.01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/erstada01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/watsoal01.shtml
- After 1985, the Angels — very controversially — let go of future Hall of Famer Rod Carew, to make room for a little-known minor leaguer named Wally Joyner. Wally hit .290 with 22 homers and 100 RBI, finished 8th in the MVP voting; the Angels made the playoffs for the first time in five years, and got to within one strike of the World Series.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carewro01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/joynewa01.shtml
- In 1962, second baseman Billy Moran was the Angels’ best player, scoring 90 runs and hitting 17 homers in offense-killing Dodger Stadium, while making the All-star team and finishing 13th in MVP voting. He was still good in ‘63, with an OPS+ of 97. In mid-’64, during his age-30 year, the Angels traded him for some spare parts to make room for a minor leaguer named Bobby Knoop. Moran was out of baseball 175 at bats later; meanwhile, over the next four seasons Knoop won three Gold Gloves, racked up two top-25 MVP finishes, and made the All-star team. The Angels were never great in this era, but they were also never terrible.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moranbi02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/knoopbo01.shtml
Now, are there instances of this strategy not working out? Oh hell yes there are. But you said you “don’t” move someone that good to make room for a minor leaguer, and that if you do, you deserve to lose. That ain’t necessarily so.
3) You say “Brandon friggin’ Wood”? Fair enough. I’ll say: Dickie friggin’ Thon, Tom friggin’ Brunansky, Brian friggin’ Harper, Rance friggin’ Mulliniks, Willie Mays friggin’ Aikens, Mike friggin’ Easler, Ken friggin’ Landreaux, Willie friggin’ Montanez, Alberto friggin’ Callaspo, and Dante friggin’ Bichette. Sometimes the guys you don’t make room for end up outperforming the veterans you treasure, and for a fraction of the price. The trick is knowing when that might happen.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thondi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brunato01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mullira01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aikenwi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/easlemi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/landrke01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/montawi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/callaal01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bicheda01.shtml
If I was running the Angels, I’d let someone else reward Figgins for his great season (and be on the hook for his ages 32-34, which is when players tend to plummet in performance), give Brandon Wood the keys to third base for a half-decade, use the draft picks to continue re-stocking the farm system, and spend the savings on making sure the RH/DH positions have enough pop next year.
by mattwelch on Jul 3, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Bravo
Since there is no way I could embellish such a brilliantly-composed reply, I’ll simply ask a question which popped into my mind:
Wouldn’t it have been something if Bip Roberts was at SS with Bump Wills at 2B and Boog Powell at 1B? How great would it have been to call a double play of Bip to Bump to Boog?
by George Kaplan on Jul 3, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love both Bip and Boog, but always hated Bump
Biff Pocoroba, obviously, would be catcher.
by mattwelch on Jul 3, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing
Matt Welch is definately NOT GA
Phys: Well, Coon doesn't have a lot of power but he's a good bunter
Coon: F$%# That!
Thanks Zu
by halofan4life on Jul 3, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
I’ve been on the “trade figgins” wagon, then onto the “keep him at any cost” wagon. It has been one hell of a roller coaster. But, dang, you just blew the tires on my most recent wagon with this post.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 6, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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