Roy Halladay: The Next Angel Ace
by WiHaloFan on Jul 15, 2009 12:35 PM PDT
in Angels News
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There's been a lot written and said about the possible trade of Roy Halladay by the Toronto Blue Jays. One of the more persistent rumors has Halladay coming to Anaheim in a deal involving the Angels top prospect Brandon Wood. Put me firmly in the camp of "Trade For Halladay", even if Wood has to be the centerpiece of the Halos' offer. Here's why:
Pros:
- Durability - Halladay has hit the disabled list 5 times in his career, most recently this season when he suffered a right groin strain causing him to miss the minimum 15 days. The other four times:
05/11/07 - 15 day to have his appendix removed (missed 20 days) - non pitching injury.
07/09/05 - 60 day with a fractured fibula (missed 85 days) - broke bone in his leg after being hit by line drive.
07/17/04 - 60 day with a right shoulder strain (missed 66 days)
05/28/04 - 15 day with right shoulder soreness (missed 15 days)
| WAR | Value ($M) | |
| Halladay | 46.8 | 165.7 |
| Jo. Santana | 41.6 | 146.5 |
| Sabathia | 38.3 | 142.0 |
| Lackey | 28.9 | 103.5 |
| Zambrano | 26.7 | 94.0 |
| Peavy | 25.6 | 95.3 |
| Haren | 24.8 | 100.3 |
Over the past 5 seasons, he's posted a 74-30 record (.712 winning %) while compiling an ERA+ of 145 and a WHIP of 1.100.
Getting to the play-offs
After having 3/5th of their starting rotation open the season on the disabled list, the Angels have been in a see-saw battle throughout the season with the Texas Rangers for the A.L. West division lead. Through the first half of the 2009 season, the Angels have used 12 different starting pitchers (compared to 7 last season) and have not seen Ervin Santana return to his 2008 form as he continues to battle elbow problems. Once steady Joe Saunders has been awful his last 8 starts, going 2-2 with an ERA of 6.65 while surrendering an astronomical 12 home runs. During those 8 starts, Saunders' ERA has risen from 3.26 to 4.65
Adding Halladay to the Angels staff will remove the need for rookies (O'Sullivan, Rodriquez, and Ortega) or journeymen (Palmer and Loux) to complete the rotation, increasing the club's chances of winning every 5th day and improving their chances of making the post season. During the last 3 seasons, Halladay has posted these second half numbers: 19-12, 3.14 ERA, 65 BB, 216 SO and 1.187 WHIP in 306.2 innings.
The Play-offs
If the season were to end today, the Angels would be hosting the New York Yankees (wild card), while the Red Sox would play the Tigers. In a 5 game division series, the Angels would feature a starting rotation of Halladay/Lackey/Weaver matching up to the Bomber's Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte. Over the last 3 seasons (2007-2009), Halladay has gone 7-1 against the Yankees, with an ERA of 2.58 in 83.2 innings. Additionally, if the series were to go further than 3 games, Halladay's second start would be in New York where he's compiled a 2.27 ERA with a 2-1 record.
Once the Angels beat the Yanks, most likely they'd be facing the Red Sox again, but this time in the ALCS. Halladay has been somewhat inconsistent against Boston, going 4-5 with a 4.13 ERA since 2007. However, last season Halladay posted a very good 2.56 ERA, winning 3 of 5 decisions.
| 2009 ($M) | 2010 ($M) | |
| Halladay | 14.25 | 15.75 |
| Jo. Santana | 20.0 | 21.0 |
| Sabathia | 14.0 | 23.0 |
| Lackey | 9.0 | |
| Zambrano | 17.75 | 17.875 |
| Peavy | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Haren | 7.5 | 8.25 |
Cons:
- Halladay turned 32 this past May.
- Brandon Wood may have to be included in any deal for Halladay - Brandon Wood has the potential to be a very good player...the type of player the Angels organization has needed for the past couple seasons; a power-hitting, middle-of-the-order run producer. However, the key word is potential. He has not proven to be that hitter Halo fans have craved during his brief major league call-ups, although he's displayed enormous talent in the minors. What will happen if Wood becomes a full-time player? Will he become Troy Glaus or Dallas McPherson?
- If Halladay is traded to the Angels, the Angels may not be able to afford to re-sign any other free agents which could include John Lackey and Chone Figgins.
- Acquiring Halladay doesn't address the glaring need the Angels have in their bullpen. By dealing Wood, the Angels will limit their depth from which they can trade for a much-needed reliever.
Summary:
If the Angels can swing a deal for a #1 starter such as Halladay, even at the expense of including Wood in the deal, I think the Angels have to make the trade if they are serious about their 2009 World Series chances.
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I could agree more
I’m a huge Brandon Wood guy. I’ve been banging my head against my desk waiting patiently on his opportunity to see Wood get his shot. And although he has had only a few at bats at the MLB level this season, I think he’s exactly what I was hoping for.
If Halladay is traded to the Angels, the Angels may not be able to afford to re-sign any other free agents which could include John Lackey and Chone Figgins.
Halladay certainly tightens the wallet of Arte Moreno but, Lackey hasn’t certainly wowed anyone this season with his performance. I wonder if he’d take less to stay with the team, being in an elite rotation. As far as signing free agents is concerned, I think you try to re-sign Figgins. I’d like to see Reagins try and keep this roster together for next season and a few more to come.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
i think we need a #5 starter and a set-up arm...
more than a #1 starter.
-play wood full time or close to it NOW so we know what we have
-trade two of the four (srod, izzy, aybar, howie)
-re-sign figgy and put him @ 2nd and wood @3rd or keep figgy @3rd and put wood @ss w/the last guy standing of (izzy, howie, srod, aybar) @ 2nd
-re-sign big john, he’ll be much cheaper than what he wanted last year.
-adios to vlad
-kick the tires on abreu and/or matt holiday
For some strange reason
I feel that we’ll inevitably get screwed on a Halladay trade.
Maybe we lose Wood in the trade, FIGGY and Lackey to free agency because of Halladay’s price tag?
I mean, I don’t want to lose FIGGY here, you know?
the people who make these decisions have their jobs for a reason
nobody in the angels is making a trade this big without an enormous plan of how they’ll work the economics and player deals surrounding it out.
we think about it for 10 minutes while we post on a blog….they get paid to think about it 24 hours a day
RIP Nick Adenhart
by ihearhowie2.0 on Jul 15, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
i think about 24 hours a day for free.
(i didn’t say I thought about correctly though…)
by Rev Halofan on Jul 15, 2009 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like the idea
of also asking for a reliever from them such as Scott Downs or Brandon League. I don’t know what they would ask in return. I’m sure it will hurt, but it would be nice to get two big pieces to our puzzle in one move.
This season is my best chance to get called out of the stands to pitch.
Scott Downs and League are excellent
young, and cheap. Exactly the type of player the Jays want to keep. If we did a GMJ/Wells swap however, we might only have to put in wood. The Jays would be DYiNG to get rid of Wells (98.5 M over the next 5 years). GMJ, Wood, and like a Stephen Marek like propsect could land us Wells and Halladay, although that would kill our payroll flexability (Adding roughly 25 M a season)
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 15, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions
if we lose lackey, vlad and escobar in 2010
that is $35 Million right there
by Rev Halofan on Jul 15, 2009 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions
But then who are we gonna sign as a FA?
Im not saying it cant be done, but it would have severe payroll implications
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 16, 2009 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Totally
If we can get Halladay for Wood and prospects- and NOT another starting pitcher- we have to make that deal.
OT: Wonderdog sighting...
Just ran into Hud at the local Best Buy in Tustin. He was on his cell phone when I walked by and said to myself “that guy looks like Rex Hudler” I was right. HA HA! Said Hi and shook his hand, Great dude.
God needed a starter. RIP #34
I met him for the first time this year at Spring Training.
He really is a good guy. In the past, I wondered if he was putting on an act while broadcasting. After meeting him and seeing him talk in person, I don’t think it’s an act. What you see is what you get.
Roy Halladay is not coming to the Angels.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
Not going to happen...
The Angels do not make trades like the type it would take to get Halladay. Please, don’t use the Tex trade as a counter-example, Kotch and Marek are not even remotely close to what it would take to acquire Halladay.
I really don’t know the answer, but has the franchise EVER traded away top tier prospects and an everyday player for a player the caliber of Halladay?
I suspect they will make a deal for a bullpen arm before the deadline; nothing too pricey or splashy.
normally yes but this is the Ninja we're talking about
i’m 50/50 on this. i like what i see in Wood but if you can get a Roy Halladay, you do it. gonna be a fun/interesting 2 weeks that’s for sure.
Inclined to agree
The difference between this and the Tex-Kotch trade is that they had KMo waiting in the wings and ready to go.
"I've got more action than my man John Woo
And I've got mad hits like I was Rod Carew" - Shure Shot, The Beastie Boys
by Zoe Necrosis on Jul 15, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
How is that different?
Wood is blocked across the board. SRod, Aybar, Izzy are all in there able to play SS. Figgy is at 3rd, and an All-Star, I wouldn’t want to give up on him to put in Wood at this point anyway (we need his lead off bat).
Check out these games:
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by matthiasstephan on Jul 15, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Last 3 starts before the All-Star game Halladay went 20 innings and gave up 10 runs, Not thrilled about his performance in the All-star Game. Honestly a Ranger fan but think I can be objective. This a bad path. You have a good team you need to improve but not by a questionable and costly investment in Halladay. Just work on the Pen and maybe another bat. Question is Ervin. What do you think. Can he come back or is he toast? Would like feed back on him and the game tomorrow if possible. GL
Ervin Santana is not toast (in my opinion),
but there’s definitely something still wrong with him. I made an off-the-wall suggestion in a comment the other day, but have since given it more thought. The suggestion was moving Santana to the pen. After thinking that through a little more, I think it might work out for both the team and Santana. Let him go balls-out in the 8th every couple days.
Instead of a home-road split, it’s a “suck everywhere” issue.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Agree everything.
Ervin scares me. And not in the good way. He’s throwin’ low 90’s with zero movement.
I think he’s finished for the season. Hopefully I’m wrong.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Jul 15, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Ervins intial injury
was that injury that leads to the TJ surgery? so when does that actually come into play? if he stays like this then obviously he lost something. is it all mental or is it physical? do they wait till that injury in his elbow completely tears? or does rest help an injury like that?
REST HELPS
the scar tissue that builds up during the rest is often a complete enough repair to then withstand the normal pitching load.
by Rev Halofan on Jul 15, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I posted this sentiment early on in the season, and unfortunately I think I was right.
Ervin has an injured ligament in his elbow. His best pitch, his slider, which he threw about 30% of the time last year, puts a heavy amount of stress on his elbow. Because his elbow is injured, his slider lost its bite, and he cant throw it as often. Without the threat of a slider, the hitters can basically just sit dead red, and crush Santana all day long. What he needs is surgery to fix his arm, and alot of rest.
That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey
by anaheim angels on Jul 15, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Leverage
One other issue with a Halladay trade is that he would have the right to demand a trade at season’s end meaning that we either have to give him a big extension or ship him out for less than we paid. Tex (and two 1st rounders) for Kotch + worked out ok, but we can’t keep trading infielers, especialy with Chone a FA… What if he goes and Wood goes?
Is it true that Halladay has stated that he wants to go to the National League?
If Halladay has any sentiment that would preclude him from staying in Anaheim, that would be the reason I would change my mind and not do a trade for him.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
I heard the same thing
About Halladay wanting to go to the NL. And Chris Carpenter supposedly is his BFF.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
Trade
Wouldn’t the Blue Jays demand much more than Wood in a trade. Rumors were that they were asking for a major league ready player, plus a couple of top prospects. Brandon Wood alone, is no where close to what the Jays would be demanding.
The two high compensational draft picks alone if Halladay becomes a free agent are probably worth as much as Wood.
vr, Xei
Yes, of course the Jays would require more than just Wood
My post stated Wood as part of a deal. I’m thinking they’d ask for something like: Wood, Saunders, and Mathis. Hopefully, settling for Wood, O’Sullivan, Mathis and prospect(s). Actually I’ve heard they want Weaver, which would be a huge mistake by the Angels. I compared Weaver to Peavy last off-season, and I’ll stick to that. Weaver will become one of the better pitchers in baseball, maybe not “Halladay-good”, but close.
Hmm. I tend to disagree with that $5million per win calculation. I see him as getting $20million over 5 years from somebody. It is entirely too much money and on par with GMJ. Hence ALBATROSS.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions
GMJ had a history of sucking ass
Holladay is only the most dominant right hander in baseball.
What are you smoking?
Even at 80/4 this guy will produce.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
32. Too old for a $20/25M+-per annum pitcher, IMHO. Mark my words, whoever gets him (if at that cost/duration(5 years)) will regret it.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions
We dont HAVE to resign him
We have him for a year and a half at the cheap.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Then I really don’t want to lose Wood. We tried a “rent-a-player” for Teix and had great backup plans. There is no such plan in place for 3B sans Wood.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions
at what cost? $12M per year?
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Figgins
Won’t command $12M a year. Especially in this bad economy. Figgins isn’t a premier player nor is he perceived to be. Figgins is good player. He is handling 3B great. He’ll certainly get a pay raise from someone, but he won’t be making 12 million year.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
He could easily get it...
Especially since he leads in OBP for leadoff men in all of baseball. There is a market for that kind of production. Plus the steals, his defense, and the ability to play everywhere. If he wanted $12M per, someone will give it him.
But you are right, it was unfair to compare him to Gary.
I am just making a dumb/bold statement in that we will lament years 3, 4 and 5 when he’s 35, 36, 37 years old and out of baseball completely.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
As good as he is
I’m not wild about losing our 25 year old top prospect and Arte’s budget flexibility for a 32 year old pitcher.
*Ade-Rock 34*
I'm confused...
If Halladay is traded to the Angels, the Angels may not be able to afford to re-sign any other free agents which could include John Lackey and Chone Figgins.
Yet, everyone else (xeifrank and phislamma) says he’s cheap. Uh, what’s up? Help me understand this.
I love this team.
Hes owed about 21 million over the next TWO years.
CC gets that per cheeseburger.
Lackey will get that per chin.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Yet, in getting Halladay it is assumed that Arte will not get Figgy or Lackey...
Like your analogies btw.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Well he is owed about 15 next year
That is basically what its going to take to re-sign the ugliest pitcher in baseball. We could have one year of Holladay, resign Figgins for three years, and not worry about Big John breaking down for the Red Sox when his snarl breaks off his face and attacks his pitching elbow.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Padilla and Lackey can fit your description, yo.
Yep, I’d prefer Holler-day over Lackey-tating any day.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, you're right, that sentence is confusing
What I meant was if Halladay is traded to the Angels, I don’t believe they could then afford to re-sign Lackey and Figgins. As Phi writes, the amount paid to Halladay in 2010 is approximately what it’d take to get Lackey (+/- a few million).
So, In summery
I would rather have Figgins and Holladay for one year rather than Lackey and Wood for three.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
No Thanks
Forget Halladay!!!! Consider what could happen: we trade for Halladay (Wood included)… After Halladay’s term with the Angels he decides to walk and take more money elsewhere.. Ok now it already looks like Lackey will be walking from everything I read..and Figgy is excited about testing the free agent waters… What does this all mean??
Angels are screwed without a number 1 starter and probably traded away other young arms in the Halladay deal, and the replacement for Figgy is also gone!!! But it’s ok cause Quinlan with his goofy swing will become a gold glove 3rd baseman overnight and hit 30 HR… Give me a break!!!
I couldn't disagree more.
Halladay makes us a serious threat TODAY! People, you are missing the big picture, (And if you are in to puns, big pitcher.) Adding Halladay into our rotation this year gives us a the opportunity to shut down any opposing team’s offense. Please understand I said opportunity, not a certainty. Brandon Wood is awesome and I know he’d improve our offense over Aybar/Maicer. But Halladay sets up that play-off rotation we need. Lackey is not alright. Santana is not alright. Saunders is not alright. And they might not be right this year.
2 Years of dominant pitching is worth the loss of Brandon Wood. If we were able to win another World Series title, it would be worth.
And all this talk of Salary, we were prepared to pay $160m to Tex. He’s gone. Where did that money go? Abreu has a 1 year contract. I don’t think we’ll be re-signing him. Figgins will command a higher salary as a free agent, but he isn’t going to be pulling 12m. Maybe 3-6 million a year. Lackey is hurting his chances of a big pay day.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
How can signing Halladay be a detriment to getting Figgins, then (If he is only going to get $3M to $6M)? If you are right about the expected Fig range, then for sure, we should go after Halladay.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jul 16, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
agreed
The fact that we cant negotiate the extention before the trade is the deal breaker.
If we could lock him up now This is a no brainer, but I agree with the camp that says if wood and others get traded away and we loose Lackey and Figgy to FA, we are left out in the cold with our pants down.
Hopefully Reaggins and Arte are good poker players just kicking the tires on the deal and not over commiting.
Why no have to trade less in a deal and just get a 3rd in the rotation kinda guy. He wold cost less, lessen the blow of loosing Lackey and hope that we can pick up a FA in the off season to strengthen things. We keep figgy put him in LF, move Juan to RF, Vladdy gets a 3 yr extention on the cheap to only DH Abreu is gone, Wood plays 3b. Vlad plays 1 day a week in RF leaving Mathis to catch and Napoli to DH or someone else to rotate thru.
Quit Bitching about Wood not playing, The guy does deserve his shot but quit pretending that we have Willie Mays riding the pine
by Sinatrasratpack on Jul 15, 2009 7:08 PM PDT reply actions
I love how half of the populous is worried
we cannot negotiate to extend Holladay
yet
In the same breath others are AGREEING with those posts saying that he is too expensive, and will handcuff the Angels for years to come and will be too old.
“F HOLLADAY, WE CANT EVEN EXTEND HIM FOR TWENTY YEARS BEFORE HE COMES TO THE ANGELS. IF WE COULD NEGOTIATE A TEN YEAR EXTENSION THEN IM ALL FOR IT. I DONT WANT HIM WALKING!!!!!”
(in response)
“I COMPLETELY AGREE! HE IS 32 THAT IS SO OLD! WE DO NOT WANT TO SIGN THIS GUY AND EAT AN ENORMOUS CONTRACT!?>?2!! THE PERSON I AM RESPONDING TO IS COMPLETELY CORRECT, WE CANT SIGN THIS GUY TO A HUGE LONG LENGTH CONTRACT>?
>$@!~”
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
As Dan Patrick said today...
You dont get alot of chances to win a championship. If you have the chance to sign Halladay…you do it because hes the type of player than can get you there.
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jul 15, 2009 9:59 PM PDT reply actions
I don't want to lose Wood.
Erectile Dysfunction is not good.
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Jul 16, 2009 1:23 AM PDT reply actions
If you exepreince Wood at AAA lasting for more than 4 years, consult your CBA...
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
no way....
I trade Wood at this point. He’s probably our starting 3B next year, plus, didn’t we already get burned with Tex not signing and staying?
Sure Halladay is signed for an additional year, but I think it is in no way worth trading Wood, esp if you lose Halladay after 2010.
I want Brandon at third next year and Figgy as the “everywhere” guy.
Tex couldn't stop the Red Sox from scoring.
Halladay can. Halladay will be with the team for a year and a half. We’re in first place in a weak division. We can make no changes and go into the playoffs with Lackey, Saunders, and Santana, not pitching as well as they did last year.
Brandon Wood won’t stop the Red Sox from scoring runs. If we get into the playoffs, I want to get past the 1st Round. This is our year, why wouldn’t we do this?
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
mlbtr: "One GM said the Angels have "zero chance" at acquiring the Jays ace.
Players like Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick have lost some of their appeal and prospect Jordan Walden finds himself on the DL for the second time this season."
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