Updated Angel Projections

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 13, 2009 9:02 PM PDT

I've run updated CHONE projections (the preseason ones are on baseballprojection.com) and here are the Angels who have risen and fallen the most so far, by projected OPS:

Wood and Rodriguez's stats include an MLE for Salt Lake City

<pre>

Player preseason updated change

Kowbell .748 .821 .073

Napoli .805 .870 .065

SeanRod .694 .734 .040

Aybar .693 .730 .037

Rivera .782 .813 .031

Hunter .801 .826 .025

B-Wood .719 .735 .016

Abreu .784 .791 .007

Izturis .740 .746 .006

Figgins .729 .730 .001

Mathis .655 .654 -.001

Willits .703 .688 -.015

Matthews .724 .699 -.025

Kendrick .783 .739 -.044

Quinlan .716 .672 -.044

Guerrero .888 .813 -.075

</pre>

Kendry Morales learned to crush the ball. Mike Napoli learned to hit for average. Juan Rivera kept himself in the lineup. Erick Aybar became an average hitter (a great thing when you're a strong fielding SS). Wood and Rodriguez have progressed towards being viable everyday players, though they still have more work to do. Even Kendrick looks like he's shaken off his early slump and is back to being the HK-47 hitting droid.

It's been a great year for Mickey Hatcher's lineup. The only drawback is the fall from greatness for Vlad.

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Comments

And Vlad looks like

he is warming up quickly.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 13, 2009 9:18 PM PDT reply actions

yea it seems like srod always produces whenever he is in the lineup lately, but then again everyone is producing these days.

I LOVE IT! if this team wins the world series, they definately will rank up there with my top 3 favorite angels teams.

In Kobe we trust!

by robi s on Aug 13, 2009 9:18 PM PDT reply actions

Top 3?

If they win the World Series, they are either first or second on my list. I would say first given the tragedy and all of the injuries, but even if we do win again, you can’t discount the 2002 team winning it all when the franchise had done nothing for so long.

by Brody on Aug 13, 2009 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Question:

When you say projections, do you mean

A)your new projected OPS for a full season assuming game one started today
B)your projected OPS for each hitter the rest of the way
C)your projection for 2009’s end of season totals

In all three cases, your projections seem way low.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 13, 2009 9:39 PM PDT reply actions

+1

Kendry currently has an OPS of .932
- Last 7 games is 1.230
- In August, 1.219.

I don’t see how he how he is batting/will bat .821

Time for the Angels pitchers to get back to work! Go Angels!

by Slyintine on Aug 14, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Another stat

The lowest month in terms of OPS for Kendry is April with a .824 OPS.

This is still higher than the projected .821

Time for the Angels pitchers to get back to work! Go Angels!

by Slyintine on Aug 14, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions

These projections are

What my system expects from here to the end of the 2009 season.

Morales came into the year with a .748 projection, based on not great MLB play and not showing a lot of power for the PCL. That he’s raised his projection as much as he has is an impressive accomplishment.

He rules. He is Kowbell. And we need more Kowbell.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 14, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe all he needed

Was to go into an MLB season, knowing he was going to be playing every day and not be buried because of other players infront of him.

Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?

by BBFan1 on Aug 14, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions

It's not just Kowbell though.

I mean that projection says that nearly every regular on the team save Vlad and Kendrick are going to hit about 50 points of OPS under their current season averages the rest of the way. I really don’t think that’s going to happen.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 14, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions