Dillon Baird: the Other Reason Matt Sweeney was Expendable
by Turks Teeth on Aug 28, 2009 11:48 PM PDT
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PrintMatt Sweeney, because of his terrific rookie season at age 18, and his decent comeback, after a year and a half of injuries, at Rancho Cucamonga in 200+ ABs this season, seems like a prospect we might miss. rghan certainly believed in his projectability. But there was an emerging consensus that Sweeney's defensive profile wouldn't allow him to stick at third base, where we already have options in Figgins, Wood, and perhaps even Rodriguez for several years to come. So that leaves first base, where we've seen our Cuban Commando decisively raise a flag this season.
But deep in the minors, in a tiny desert outpost in Utah, another Crusher commeth...
Meet the Angels' 11th pick of the 2009 draft: Dillon Baird.
On the same night that Kendry Morales went 5-for-5 in a resounding win in Angels Stadium, first baseman Baird was also on five times in five chances, with three hits, two walks, two runs and two RBIs. Over 178 ABs in the Pioneer League, he's put up the following line:
.382 avg, .454 obp, .562 ops, 1.015 ops
That BA and OBP lead all Pioneer League batters, and in fact all Rookie League hitters period. He still has upside where the longball is concerned, but his current doubles rate could project to 50+ overall in a full season's worth of ABs. This guy is a run producer and his Pac 10 numbers were no different.
This is a player who is roughly the same age as Sweeney, and since he is a college prepster, could've likely been playing effectively at Rancho right now alongside Sweeney and his fellow draftee Jake Rife, save for Tom Kotchman's appetite for team victories and an organizational desire to slow walk him in absence of any need to accelerate his progress.
But if anyone was wondering who is next in line after Kendry (long, long may he live!), this is the name to watch, not Trumbo, or Jacobo or any other bobo.
It's Baird. Dillon Baird. Keep an eye on this one.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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It was a very, very good draft this year.
Surprisingly so, and we signed almost all of our top picks. Other hitters of note:
1. Randall Grichuk: .329 avg (.922 OPS), 30 XBH, 47 runs, 53 RBIs in 231 ABs
2. Mike Trout: .369 avg (.947 OPS), .428 OBP, 13 SB
9. Casey Haerther: .340 avg (not a lot of power yet)
12. Carlos Ramirez: .372 avg .482 obp .611 slg, 1.093 ops (at catcher!)
and more, including Cates and Mallard among them.
by Turks Teeth on Aug 29, 2009 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Do you know where the prospect ranking guys ranked the Angels?
I know guys like Keith Law (ESPN) and Jim Callis (Baseball America) didn’t rank the Angels in the top 5 (or the bottom 5, for that matter), but I don’t have subscriptions to any of this stuff, so I don’t know where the Angels actually ranked.
I got a feeling from their comments that this was just a decent draft for the Angels – all over the place in terms of the type of guys they picked and sort of low on the high upside guys, except for Trout. And I know the Grichuk pick was roundly ridiculed.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
Law ridiculed Grichuk
Maybe some others, but Baseball America – the gold standard in this sort of stuff – and some other writers I liked were far more positive. The kid’s been mashing, really mashing, the last two weeks, and could be an allstar outfielder.
And I think that picking Grichuk first and signing him early to slot money was an enormous boost to the FO’s leverage in signing Trout and Skaggs, both of whom wanted more coming into the draft and probably deserved it. That the Halos signed every player that they drafted in the first 11 rounds (except for Spence) for fairly cheap is a huge, huge feather in their cap, considering the number of picks.
Trout and Skaggs have as much upside as any prepsters still available after the first 15 picks. The three college pitchers taken in the supplemental rounds/2nd round all have first round calibre stuff, but dropped due to lagging performance. The Halos jumped all over that because they are very confident – and rightly so – in their coaches’ abilities to iron the mechanical problems out. The college picks were solid – getting Ramirez in the 8th and Baird in the 11th were steals – and should at the very least make Rancho and Arkansas more competitive in the coming years. And Locker could be the pick of the century, or $200,000 down the drain. Wes Hatton in the 4th round is a little befuddling to me, but Bane and co know a lot more than I do.
The only way to know is to see where all of these guys are in four years, of course, but I’m really high on the short-term outlook.
The proof is in the performance.
And based on what Trout and Grichuk have done in the AZL, there’s just no way someone should be down on them at this point. They are putting up monster numbers there for a pair of guys in their age 17 seasons.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Good points all
And you’re more knowledgable in these matters than I (which is why I asked the question), but I still think the Angels made a mistake by not picking the best player available in the first round. Trout’s choice was a good one, and Skaggs as well. But I don’t think anyone felt that Grichuk was in the top 25 draft prospects. Did the Angels save themselves some money? Sure, but when you look at the economics of baseball, money saved in the draft by not going after the best players is never as much as the money saved on the back end when you have a stud on your roster for 6 years at below market prices.
As for Grichuk’s recent success, that’s great, but his plate discipline is still very poor. Power, line drive rate, ability to use the opposite field, etc. can all be developed over time. Plate discipline rarely develops, or at least not significantly. Can he be an All Star? Sure, anything’s possible. But he needs to figure out some way to get those strike out rates down and the walk rates up. And that’s not going to get any easier as he moves up the ladder.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
Plate discipline can't be developed?
What? Where the hell did you get that? Take a look at Chone Figgins’ walk rate 2004-2009 and tell me again that plate discipline can’t be developed.
It’s the other way around. Hitting for average and power is a talent which one must possess. Plate discipline is a skill which can be learned.
As far as his strikeout rate-
Month G K
June 6 11
July 24 29
Aug 22 21
I mean seriously, there’s pessimism and then there’s willful blindness. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not a good starting point to K that much, but when you look at his youth and power, not to mention the development that is already evident, I don’t see how there could be a question about Grichuk’s upside.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Chone Figgins is the exception to the rule
Very very few players develop plate discipline the way Figgins has. It’s extremely rare. For every Chone Figgins, I can show you 25 other guys who haven’t improved their walk rate significantly over their careers.
Power can be developed by making minor tweaks to a swing and getting a player to get the most out of his body. Power can also be developed, especially by young guys like Grichuk, when their body fills out as they age. Line drive rate is certainly much more of a skill, but even that can be helped by finding flaws in a swing and correcting them.
Walk rates and K rates are hard to make better without sacrificing other things (like batting average and power).
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
Conger added more walks this year.
Bourjos added more walks this year. S-Rod’s shown tremendous year over year gains in his development. Wood has added more walks to his game.
Historically, Chase Utley added more walks later in his minor league career. Recently, Denard Span did the same. Matt Sweeney added walks. Kendry Morales is on pace to walk a little more this year.
Should I go on?
Brandon Wood.
Erick Aybar.
Two other guys whose plate discipline has improved over time. I could show a number of examples in our minor league system, right now, whose K-rate improve markedly this year over last year. I really think you’re wrong about the strikeouts thing. Most players develop better discipline as they age. Yeah, some guys can’t do it, or choose not to, but there are two things to consider-
Grichuck could, at this moment, sacrifice a significant amount of average and power for fewer Ks, and still end up a very good player. Second, power hitters especially tend to build up their walk rate over time, as their reputation develops and pitchers start to pitch around them.
Grichuk has some incredible potential, especially when one considers that he is hitting this well in SPITE of that K-rate. Hank Conger only hit .314 at AAA for crying out loud.
As far as making a homerun hitter by tweaking someone’s swing, let me just point this out—Chone Figgins is probably going to end up with around 100 walks this season. In the next few seasons, Kendry Morales could easily end up with 100 walks as lefty power hitter in a lineup filled with mostly right-handed hitters. But no matter how much you tweak Figgins’ swing, he will never hit 30 homers, as Kendry is going to this season.
Power is innate. Speed is innate. The ability to make contact consistently with a 95 MPH fastball is innate. All else can be learned.
~Till the Halo burns out...
And for what it's worth
Howie Kendrick has actually been walking more this season as well. He has career highs in homers, RBIs, and walks while having 50 or so fewer ABs than in previous years.
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Aug 29, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I really think all the emphasis on plate discipline back in ST had a bigger impact than people realize.
~Till the Halo burns out...
"Best Player Available"
According to… Who? I think with Grichuk, the Halos thought they were getting as promising a player as any available – remember, “best” at this point is more projection than anything else – whom they also knew was highly signable. I don’t think that you can say with any certainty that there were players more likely to end up in the majors, even if there were a lot of college players who were a little further along in their development.
I trust Bane’s picks a lot more than Law’s.
Eddie Bane said
that they judged Grichuk the sixth-best player available in the draft.
Player to be named?
Now who’s the player to be named? That’s the big question. Because according to Joe Maddon, it’s somebody they’re very excited about.
RIP Nick Adenhart
2009 Is for You
If it's a player to be named later...
…surely it has to be someone on the 40-man squad that they can name at the end of the season, so they don’t have to clear waivers? Where are the other holes on the current TB squad? Must be a position player – can’t see us giving up pitching…
I see red people
I hate to rain on this parade...
But he’s a 21 year old in rookie ball. He’s playing against 17 – 19 year olds, mostly. If he WASN’T doing this, he’d be a complete non-prospect.
I’m not saying that means he won’t be good, but there’s a reason the Angels didn’t start him in A ball already (maybe that reason is something other than his development, I don’t know).
I’m still definitely not opposed to having traded Sweeney. If the Angels can lock Morales up with an extension, they should have him for another 3 – 5 years. But I’ll get more excited about this Baird kid when he does this next year at high A, and the year after at AA or AAA.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
I'd feel better about losing Sweeney if Luis Jimenez hadn't lost this season to injury. Next year Jiminez will be in a position battle
with Baird. It’ll be interesting to see who wins that one. Jimenez has as much raw power as anyone in the Angels system, Sweeney included. 49 XB hits in Orem at age 20 is awesome.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yeah, but won't Jiminez stick at 3B?
I’ve heard his defense is solid. Seems that Orem 3B’s Wing and Haerther have more to worry about.
I assumed 3B is where we were talking about.
I mean at first we have freaking Morales, not to mention Conger (if he doesn’t stick at catcher) and Trumbo. Breaking in at 3rd or DH in about 3 years was about all Sweeney had to hope for. It’s not much of a mystery why we traded him when you realize that.
Wing is solid but I dunno how far he’s going. He’s going to need more power than he’s shown so far, especially since he’s 20, just like Jimenez was. Haerther really isn’t even on my radar screen at 21.
Here’s a question though-How high are you on Carlos Ramirez? I mean, there’s being 21 and hitting .360+ as a 1B in rookie ball, and then there’s being 21 and hitting .360+ as a catcher. He’s got some good power and plate discipline too.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I really like him
Especially because his D is reportedly decent. He’s only caught 25% of basestealers so far, but it’s a small sample size. He hasn’t made an worrisome number of errors or allowed too many passed balls. I think I recall reading at baseball america article that said he’s bilingual – i don’t want to assume anything – and if he is that would be an enormous plus.
The offense looks really good to me, though I’d like to see a little more power. Cedar Rapids should really kick ass next year.
Heh.
We’ll see about Cedar Rapids. I mean, remember last years Orem team and how insane they were, and look what Cedar Rapids did to them. Granted, they lost a beast in Jimenez, but Jacobo, Lopez, Castillo- Cedar Rapids tamed all three of those guys (Lopez to a lesser extent, but still). I really like Cedar Rapids for that reason, it separates the true prospects from everyone else. You want to make the majors, you better put up at least a .750+ OPS there…as a 19-20 year old.
Otherwise you can pretty much forget it.
~Till the Halo burns out...
B-Wood and Mike Napoli
Both just missed the .750 cutoff as 19-year-olds, but in general that seems like a good rule of thumb.
Yeah, I know.
In retrospect it’s interesting to see what people did there and how it carried over from year to year. For instance, Jeff Mathis was a better hitter than Napoli back then.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I remember
when the L.A. Times had an article about how Jeff Mathis was going to make the (eventual, at the time) loss of Molina very easy. It talked about how he was basically the best hitting catching prospect in baseball, except for maybe Joe Mauer…emphasis on “maybe.”
SWIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGandamiss.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Aug 30, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I remember that one, too.
He was a “can’t miss”.
Ooops.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Aug 30, 2009 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Saying someone is "can't miss" is like saying something is "idiot-proof"
the universe seems to go out of its way to prove you wrong
Tell your statistics to shut up
Cedar Rapids is getting reinforcements
It’s not just the Orem lineup and rotation. It’s Trout, Grichuk, and a healthy Jiminez; Jean Segura will be on his feet again; then there’s Fabio Martinez Mesa and Jon Bachanov, and eventually Skaggs, Pil Joon Jang, Ariel Pena, and Baudilio Lopez on the pitching side.
Also, our four eligible shortstops, Gomez, Karcich, Almanzar, and Wing, all have something going for them that makes each a break out candidate. Hopefully the competition will push one to the next level.
We can hope Trout and Grichuk will make the jump.
They certainly seem capable of it. Segura should be interesting as well. But we’ll have to see. Mallard is another good player as well, but I get the feeling he’ll end up in Orem.
But I will agree that our current rookie league teams have a lot of guys to watch, hitting-side. Cedar Rapids should be very interesting next year.
I’m kind of hoping that Jimenez just jumps Cedar Rapids entirely and sticks at Rancho, if only because at 22 he’d be a bit old for CR.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yeah, Jiminez is getting a little long in the tooth.
But I think the Halos’ FO shares your affinity for the .750 OPS in Cedar Rapids test. I can’t think of a position player who’s skipped it. But given the lack of good options ahead of him, I bet they promote him very quickly if he hits well.
For guys who skipped it--Kendry Morales.
But yeah, hoping they hop him is a bit much. Best we can probably hope for is that he pulls a Chris Pettit and just blows it out of the water, forcing a mid-season promotion.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Hey - do you know off the top of your head when a pitcher loses prospect eligibility?
Is it 50 mlb innings?
You're uninformed, my friend
For one, the Halos didn’t “save money” by picking Grichuk… they paid him slot money, which is what they would have paid any player taken at that slot in the first round, with the exception of a Lavon Washington-type HS guy who’d just as soon leave the money on the table and go to college. And you can’t really fault them for not taking a guy like that.
Secondly, Baird plays in the Pioneer League, and that league is not “full of 17-19 year olds.” In fact, it’s mostly third-and-fourth year college players and extended spring-training types. That Baird is killing it in the Pioneer League is certainly no rock-solid guarantee of success down the road (in fact, I think the original posting is kind of pointless) but it certainly is exciting.
And the Angels almost never start off draftees in A ball. Jake Rife is the lone exception this year (promoted to Rancho to fill an OF spot) and Baird is better than him.
by GrichManPoorMan on Aug 29, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Baird is having a great season!
But I wouldn’t put him (yet!) in the same class offensively as Sweeney. Here are their numbers this year:
Baird Sweeney
Batting Line: .382/.454/.562 .299/.378/.517
ISOP: .180 .218
Walk Rate: 10.2% 10.8%
K Rate 12.7% 15.4%
BABIP .432 .327
The key difference here is BABIP, and hitting in the Pioneer League – a step down from the PAC 10 competition, according to Baseball Prospectus – vastly inflates batting average on balls in play. Think Roberto Lopez last season, who went from hitting .400 (with power!) in the Pioneer League to .275 this year in the Midwest League. Compared to Baird, Sweeney has similar plate discipline indicators and better power in a far more advanced baseball universe – the gap between competition in the short season leagues and the full season leagues is enormous.
Baird is a tremendous hitter, but the weak power numbers in the Pioneer League in his age 21.5 season are a challenge that he’s going to have to overcome if he’s to stick at first base. I was very excited about getting him in the 11th round, and think he’s got a great shot to go far, but he still needs to show something in full season ball before I’d project him anywhere close to Sweeney’s ceiling.
Staying healthy is a skill, so it should be considered in this comparison. Sweeney’s been hurt for much of two straight years, and the fact that both injuries involved bone chips floating around in joints is worrisome. Probably coincidence, but maybe not. This dings Sweeney’s value a bit compared to Baird.
But I would pick Sweeney’s ceiling over Baird’s any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Second Try with the chart
Baird Sweeney
Batting Line: .382/.454/.562 .299/.378/.517
ISOP: .180 .218
Walk Rate: 10.2% 10.8%
K Rate: 12.7% 15.4%
BABIP .432 .327
Preview, anyone?
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
I like your style.
We don't have a Bullpen. We have a Cowpen. Before we get to call it a Bullpen these guys gotta grow a pair.
As said above, I'll take Luis Jimenez as a better reason to not be real worried.
~Till the Halo burns out...
If we take the Pioneer League as a step down from the PAC 10...
…as a given, then Baird hit even better there this season:
.433 avg .509 obp .716 slg 1225 .ops
(I linked to the above in my post.)
A .716 slg does not indicate a hitter shy of power, even if it largely comes in the form of doubles.
I like Baird’s K rate and you have to take Sweeney’s injury history into account when considering long-term projectability, which the organization clearly did.
I think it’s perhaps not so informative to compare the Cal League to the Pioneer League. Both leagues are full of launching pads, but Wood put up monster numbers in the Cal League as well, and has never replicated them at another level, though he shows excellent isolated power.
Metal bats in college
While the level of competition drops a bit in the Pioneer League, hitters lose their aluminum-aided edge against the pitchers. So a So a higher slugging percentage in college doesn’t mean the same thing.
The Pioneer League is just as much a hitters’ league as the Cal League – in both places the average hitter puts up a .757 OPS. So, in that sense, they are perfect for comparison.
Look, I’m really pulling for Baird and think he has talent. I just see no statistical reason to expect that he’ll ever approach Sweeney’s homerun power. I grant you that young players sometimes make sudden jumps – San Diego’s Chase Headley comes to mind as a best case scenario comp to Baird – but those don’t happen all the time. As for the other categories, Sweeney’s posting an almost identical walk rate and only slightly worse k-rate against vastly, vastly superior competition.
Maybe Baird can maintain his very good contact, walk and strike out rates in a full season league. Maybe he can hit for homerun power. But until he actually does those things, there’s no reason to assume that he can.
He may not have replicated them, but he's put up some pretty good numbers in other places.
The key to remember for Wood is that when he lit up the Cal League, he was a year younger than Baird is right now. Age is a big factor. Right now, Baird is just too old for his numbers to carry a ton of weight. Especially when one considers that he’s not showing much power for a 21 year old in Orem.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Roberto Lopez.
That’s really all I have to say about guys putting up crazy number in Orem when they are too old to be playing in Orem. Baird is nice, but he is not Matt Sweeney. Matt Sweeney WAS expendable though, given all our other options at third and first, but let’s not under-rate the guy just because he’s not with us anymore. He was, and is, a legit hitter.
As I’ve said before, IMO the big loss so far is Torres. That guy had the look of a pitcher who could succeed at any level given the number of groundballs he gets. He could very well end up having a Derek Lowe kind of career, or even better, since Lowe never struck guys out at the rate that Torres strikes guys out.
~Till the Halo burns out...
What do you all think of the trade if the speculation is true
that the PTBNL is Sean Rodriguez?
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Aug 29, 2009 8:56 AM PDT reply actions
It's Costen Shockley
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Aug 29, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions
no way tony is that stupid
RIP Nick Adenhart
by ihearhowie2.0 on Aug 29, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
i share the same last name with this kid...
so naturally i am rooting for him. Hes the only Baird in baseball now AND he plays for the ANGELS? What could be better?
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Aug 29, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions
As a public service,
I’ll list the other guys who have hit at least .320+ over a full season on our rookie league teams at age 21+ and what they are doing now—
2008
Roberto Lopez, Orem, .400; Currently hitting .275 in Cedar Rapids
Matthew Crawford, AZL, .373; Currently hitting .288 in Cedar Rapids (.703 OPS though)
2007
Anthony Norman, AZL .362; Currently hitting .238 in Rancho
Jay Brossman, Orem .346; Currently hitting .236 in Rancho
Gordon Gronkowski, Orem .344; Currently hitting .219 in Cedar Rapids
Seth Loman, AZL .323; Currently hitting .257 for another team in the Carolina League (A+)
2006
Chris Pettit, Orem .336; Currently hitting .326 in SLC
Clearly, of this group, Pettit is the only one who has really made a name for himself, and even his chances at getting a shot at the Majors are dicey. To be fair, Lopez still has his power and has been a decent player in Orem, but he’s just not top prospect material right now.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Diora Baird will make me forget about just about anybody.
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
by hauldog on Aug 29, 2009 5:20 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
i thought i was the only one thinking that…
Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34
by howiestheman on Aug 29, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions
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