Right now, at the end of play tonight (8/31/2009), if the Halos play a measly .500--that is, 16 and 16--the rest of the season--Texas has to win at a .688 clip and go 22-10 to catch us.
My dad came up with a nifty Excel program last year that calculates what the Rangers have to do to catch us, based on our and their current record. I've posted my findings after the jump. Rev, I'd be happy to e-mail this to you if you're interested enough--I'd post it here but have no idea how.
Worst case scenario, if a 1995-esque collapse and the Angels go 10-22 for a .300 winning percentage, the Rangers *still* have to play .488 ball--which isn't quite as bad for them, but still requires a decent performance. If the Halos have the wheels fall off completely, and play .200 ball--a 6 and 26 record--the Rangers are in better territory and only have to go 12 and 20.
In other words, if the Halos keep playing like they're playing, we'll be fine. They have to be absolutely *abysmal*--i.e., 10 and 23--in order to be in serious jeopardy of losing the division.
Yes, the Halos' schedule is rough over the rest of the season. The Rangers' schedule is relatively easy. But that doesn't matter unless it means the Rangers go on an absolute tear--and the Halos simultaneously collapse, utterly and completely. Can that happen? Maybe. We're all still scarred by 1995. But I think it's certainly not worth getting all worked up at this point that the Rangers are suddenly going to win the division just by winning a few more games at the end of the season. I just don't see it happening.