Looking Beyond Statistics

by MaxTork on Sep 4, 2009 1:24 PM PDT

Anyone who has been a baseball fan for more than a few minutes knows this. The best team, statistically, very seldom wins the world series. It's a game of streaks and slumps, with very little understanding of either. The Yankees are a great example. Every year in recent memory, going back to childhood, they have spent more money than any other team to acquire top talent. They should win the world series every year, yet it took the expert direction of a great manager to make it happen again. Add another superstar and the magic was broken.

Some call it chemistry, some may call it mojo or even voodoo, but you can't deny that it's there. It's the attitude you take with you on the field or up to the plate. Whether or not you're going to let the other guy beat you. The Angels inconsistency this year has been maddening.

The angels have plenty of talent, with many of our younger players having matured drastically this year, yet from game to game we never know what team is going to show up.

Run support is one interesting example. To some pitchers we give awesome run support, take Palmer for instance. To other pitchers, we give none. Look at Weaver's luck over the past few years. He has lost an unusually high number of games in which he pitched very well. He lost a no-hitter, if you remember. I have to wonder if that doesn't go back to the whole Scott-Boras-instigated holdout when Weav was signed? We're not giving Lackey that much support now either and sometimes we seem to just not be helping him get that third out. Is that maybe a result of his clubhouse comments this year? These are intangibles that just can't be diagnosed. The clubhouse factor is huge.

Offense is another example. In one game, the entire team is frenzy hitting, 20 hits, double-digit runs, huge innings. In another game, we let a rookie pitcher 3-hit us; We lose 2 of 3 to a last place team. It seems either the entire team is up or it's down. You rarely see one player go 4-5 in a game with the rest of the order 0-5. It's all or nothing with these guys. In a way that's good. It means they're connected on some deep level as a team. The bad news is that Soth has to be a psychologist, fortune teller, or perhaps a Shaman, to make it all work.

For us to make it work this year, it seems that more so than pure statistics, Mike has to find the lineup, rotation and combinations that motivate these guys to be explosive. A good place to start is to examine what was taking place when Vlad and Torii were on the DL and the team was booming. Everybody was stepping up. Maybe now they're waiting for the veterans to step it up first. I'm not suggesting benching those guys, just finding the key to fit all the pieces together.

Thoughts?

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Wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’
Plannin’ and dreaming each night of his charms
That won’t get you into his arms

So if you’re lookin’ to find love you can share
All you gotta do is
Hold him and kiss him and love him
And show him that you care

Show him that you care just for him
And do the things he likes to do
Wear your hair just for him, ‘cause
You won’t get him
Thinkin’ and a-prayin’
Wishin’ and a-hopin’

Just wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’
Plannin’ and dreamin’ his kiss is the start
That won’t get you into his heart

So if you’re thinkin’ heartbreak
True love is
All you gotta do is
Hold him and kiss him and squeeze him and love him
Yeah, just do it and after you do, you will be his

(You gotta)
Show him that you care just for him
Do the things he likes to do
Wear your hair just for him, ‘cause
You won’t get him
Thinkin’ and a-prayin’
Wishin’ and a-hopin’

Just wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’
Plannin’ and dreamin’ his kiss is the start
That won’t get you into his heart

So if you’re thinkin’ heartbreak
True love is
All you gotta do is
Hold him and kiss him and squeeze him and love him
Yeah, just do it and after you do, you will be his
You will be his
You will be his

Hey la, hey, Halo...

by 44FAN on Sep 4, 2009 3:41 PM PDT reply actions

The MLB season

Is 162 games.

As long as the team makes the playoffs, I’m just going to grit my teeth as a fan, through the ups-and-downs that make watching the game fun but also infuriating at times.

Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?

by BBFan1 on Sep 4, 2009 4:17 PM PDT reply actions

I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

Not to be cynical or anything, but the baseball playoffs are very much a crap-shoot. Do what you can as a team to win. You’re right to say try to find the right lineup and get the players settled in, but all you are really doing is increasing your chances slightly, barring some key addition like Tex or K-Rod.

I would say that if the Yanks, Sox, Angels, and Tigers make it, the Yanks have a 31.6% chance of a pennant, the Angels about a 25.5% chance. The Red Sox around 24.8%. The Tigers around 18.1%. If you simulated the playoffs a thousand times, I think something like that would happen. Intangibles aren’t incalculable necessarily- they fit into the whole equation somewhere, but they just don’t adjust the percentages that much.The fun and cool thing about it is that the real thing only happens once and we get to enjoy rooting on the Angels every moment of it.

I always laugh when people say “if Joe Schmo brings his A game, the Blow-Hards will win the World Series,” or “getting Albert Above-Average out of the clubhouse at the deadline was the key to winning the World Series because he was such a clubhouse cancer.” There are a trillion factors going on to boil it down that much.

by Spird on Sep 4, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions

Re: the second sentence

While, as Billy Beane might say, the playoffs are a crap shoot, the best team statistically is probably a better bet than anyone else. To take two recent seasons, specifically 2004 and 2007, the team with the best Pythagorean Record in baseball won the World Series.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Sep 4, 2009 5:24 PM PDT reply actions

Thanks, Homer

Yes, the Sox won. Yes, 2004 was awesome.

The rest is an effin’ coincidence. Correlation does NOT equate to causation!

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 5, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Not to be biting

It’s just frustrating when someone not only cherry picks 2 years out of 200 as definitively demonstrative that some statistical system works, but when they use that as a vehicle for showing the dominance of their own team.

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 5, 2009 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions

"streaky", not "inconsistent"

Streaks are a part of the game. It’s not bizarre for a team to win 12-0 and then get shut out the next day. That’s baseball. That’s why they play 162 games and have 7-game playoff series. I think the Angels have been extremely consistent at the plate this year — they lead or are among the league leaders in batting. Sure, pitching could be more consistent, but I can’t think of too many seasons in which any starter or reliever didn’t have a few ups and downs. Certainly not “maddening”.

And your suspicion that the Angels hitters decide to perform better for certain pitchers is completely ridiculous. Baseball is such a difficult game for hitters to succeed in, they have no AB’s to waste by tanking it for a pitcher they might hate.

by yeswecan on Sep 4, 2009 5:38 PM PDT reply actions

I'm not suggesting they do it on purpose

Yet the game logs support that it is happening. Again tonight, the team only hit three for Weaver against a no-name starter. Weaver held the Royals to only one run and nearly lost the game.

You are absolutely right that it is unbelievably hard to hit a 95 mph pitch with a bat and every time up to the plate the batter has to rise to that challenge. It takes a superhuman effort every time. Small distractions or any lapse in motivation makes it almost impossible.

by MaxTork on Sep 4, 2009 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Did the Tejada rumors of tipping pitches spur this on?

MLB players get paid a good amount to play baseball and it would not be wise of them to play favorites or to hold grudges when it comes down to playing the game at the highest level.

Saying that, these guys are not robots and there will be times – they won’t come through for each other – but that is seeing that they have to go on road trips, go to different cities and be on top of their game for 162 times a year.

Some guys in the lineup maybe playing through nicks and dings – the production of the lineup can be explosive, but you are not going to see fireworks every game.

Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?

by BBFan1 on Sep 4, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Seeing the forest for the trees.

One of the beautiful elements of the game of baseball is the inherent microcosmic elements that make up the whole. Each at bat, each inning, each game, each series, each home stand/ road trip, each season has the potential for drama, tragedy, comedy, failure, and triumph.

For this season in particular, we sometimes need to step back for a minute and see the pieces as a whole. We agonize over what appears to be inconsistency in a team that has the second best overall record in baseball. But in reality, they have been remarkably consistent, not just this year, but over the past five or so. We do not have many “streaks” either winning or losing. Like Patton through France, we move inexorably forward, stopping, starting, one step back, two or three forward towards the goal.

I had a good friend whose wife once commented to him that Cindy Crawford’s mole really bothered her. His response was “What mole?” In the end, appropriate perspective demands that we view from a distance what we dissect in minute detail. Otherwise, we focus on the mole and miss the beauty of the whole.

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.

by Moondoggy on Sep 5, 2009 4:36 AM PDT reply actions

Oh...and stats are crap

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.

by Moondoggy on Sep 5, 2009 4:37 AM PDT up reply actions

    Statistician: A man who believes figures don’t lie, but admits that under analysis some of them won’t stand up either.
        Evan Esar
        American Humorist (1899 – 1995)

Tell your statistics to shut up

by HaloDutch on Sep 5, 2009 5:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs