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What the Rangers actually have to do to catch the Halos

First off, the title of this fanpost is in no way dissing Clutch's great fanpost. I'm just gonna go a little bit deeper. The Rangers play Baltimore, Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, the Angels, and Tampa. We all know they play a weak schedule, but...well just keep reading. 

Star-divide

The Rangers (including 9/4 and 9/5) are 5-5 (.500) against the Orioles this season. 

The Rangers are 5-1 (.833) against Cleveland.

They're 9-4 (.692) against the Mariners, 6-6 (.500) against Oakland, 9-3 (.750) against the Halos, and 4-2 (.667) against Tampa Bay. 

Against these teams, the Rangers are playing .644 ball. And, using Clutch's fanpost (told 'ya I wasn't dissing him) if the Rangers go .644 from here to the rest of the season, the Angels would have to go less than .500 for the Rangers to catch us.

So, if you haven't been calmed down by two nailbiter games, I hope this helped.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

1 recs  |  Comment 32 comments

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Wow

thats some in depth research

by mikvitu on Sep 6, 2009 12:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

took a while

but you just look at their schedule, and it says what games they won or lost…and you have your fingers to keep track on :)

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 6, 2009 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't have that many fingers

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.

by Moondoggy on Sep 6, 2009 6:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some are already

predisposed at digging for other types of informaton

by eyespy on Sep 6, 2009 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the Rangers to catch us

they need to go back in time and re-sign Milton Bradley because he impacted their lineup much like what Bobby Abreu has done for the Angels. They were an offensive machine not only in terms of power but they could hit and get on base. Now all they do is hit homers but the other facets of their offense are pretty non-existent.

"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana

by Chzburger Jones on Sep 6, 2009 1:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Can we all have a round of applause for Oakland...

who managed to have a decent record against their own AL West despite being a joke of a cellar-team…

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Sep 6, 2009 2:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Zuh?

They’re 15-25 against their own division this year

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Sep 6, 2009 2:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

see?

this is a classic example of how stats belie the A’s rightful place in the universe. You Sabremetric guys kill me.

:D

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.

by Moondoggy on Sep 6, 2009 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On 5/30, the Rangers were 30-19 and had a 5.5 game lead.

Since then, they are 46-40. Since 8/1, they have averaged slightly more than 4.5 games behind the Angels, which is exactly where they are this morning.
They have been a solid 2nd place team for almost 2 months.
Their wild card opportunity is dimming. To make the playoffs, they will need to beat us. It can be done, but it is looking doubtful.

by sothball on Sep 6, 2009 8:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Again, if it helps

The Angels magic number stands at 24.

The Rangers’ magic number stands at 33.

Not a HUGE difference, but it shows the Halos are somewhat much closer to clinching than are the Rangers. There just needs to be 12 occasions, over the next 30-ish games, in which the Angels win and the Rangers lose. For the Rangers to clinch, however, there needs to be 16-17 such occasions.

Not taking this as a diss at all, by the way. Seems to build on it, if anything!

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 6, 2009 12:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nah,

Just wanted to make sure the title wasn’t gonna have anyone (not just you) freak out on me.

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 6, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Woohoo!

Or 11.

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 6, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Panther

Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009

by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 6, 2009 5:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If the Rangers overtake the Angels, I'll eat my hat

Not to sound cocky, but it would take an intervention from the Twilight Zone to save the Rangers’ season. They have the same team OBP as the Pirates, and with Michael Young out and Josh Hamilton trending in that direction, they’ll have to pitch their way to the playoffs. But Kevin Millwood has a 5.92 ERA in the second half. Derek Holland has allowed 22 ER in his last 12 IP. That leaves Scott Feldman (101 ERA+ career), Brandon McCarthy (100 ERA+ career), and Tommy Hunter (95 ERA+ career) to pitch them to a division title, with possible guest appearances by Doug Mathis (100 ERA+) and Dustin Nippert (79 ERA+).

These guys are all currently enjoying ridiculously low BABIPs and stupid high strand rates, it’s true, but raise your hand if you’re worried about this rotation doing what Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano did for the Cubs in 2003. The only similarity I can see is Ron Washington possibly blowing out some young arms just like Dusty Baker. The Angels are just pitching too well right now to totally collapse.

by Suboptimal on Sep 6, 2009 7:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

/raises hands

But only to annoy you.

The Big Red Machine V.2 is coming this Fall 2009. Go Halos!

by Slyintine on Sep 7, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some of that BABIP is Elvis Andrus et al, no?

That kid can pick it, and having a shortstop play 3B is probably an upgrade, too.

by mattwelch on Sep 7, 2009 6:35 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

True

Defensively, Andus is their Aybar (ca. 2008). He, Kinsler and Young have been an excellent infield. That doesn’t figure to disappear as the season grinds down.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Sep 8, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

UPDATE

According to my program—if the Angels continue at their season-long win rate of 59.6% (which the program automatically rounds up to 60%), the Rangers must go 20 and 6 over the rest of the season in order to catch the Halos. If, on the other hand, the Halos play consistent with how they’ve played over the last week, at roughly .500 (that is, 13-13 the rest of the way) the Rangers have to go a mere 18 and 8 in order to catch them.

In other words, prospects are as of right now still looking good!

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 7, 2009 4:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Percentages

20 and 6 = .769 winning percentage = well over .644
18 and 8 = .692 = closer to .644 but also = Angels can’t heat up from now until the end of the season.

Changing topic, if it wouldn’t be too much trouble for you, Clutch, I’d love to see the excel program you have… email it to figginsfan34 at gmail.com if you feel like it.

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 7, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sent, check your mail

Ftr, I sent it from an account I don’t use much, so post any questions/replies here, if you would.

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 7, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks!

Very interesting

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 7, 2009 11:31 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Np

Look accurate to you?

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 8, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Looks fine. Very nicely laid out, as well. Thanks again!

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 8, 2009 1:04 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Sweet--know any way to upload it here?

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 8, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could screenshot and fanshot it.

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 8, 2009 7:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, k--I'll try it in a fanshot but not sure if it'll work.

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Sep 8, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to burst your bubble, but....

The Angels are 37-36 in games that Vlad has started in. Scioscia just might possibly consider pushing El Flailo down a peg or three in the lineup. His last 19 games, he is 18 for 77, .234 BA, and the team is 10-9. Kendry needs to be made the cleanup batter – pronto!

by R.Munkee on Sep 9, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...What does that have do do with Clutch's

“bubble”?

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Sep 9, 2009 2:14 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

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