What the Rangers actually have to do to catch the Halos

thats some in depth research

who managed to have a decent record against their own AL West despite being a joke of a cellar-team…

Since then, they are 46-40. Since 8/1, they have averaged slightly more than 4.5 games behind the Angels, which is exactly where they are this morning.
They have been a solid 2nd place team for almost 2 months.
Their wild card opportunity is dimming. To make the playoffs, they will need to beat us. It can be done, but it is looking doubtful.

The Angels magic number stands at 24.

The Rangers’ magic number stands at 33.

Not a HUGE difference, but it shows the Halos are somewhat much closer to clinching than are the Rangers. There just needs to be 12 occasions, over the next 30-ish games, in which the Angels win and the Rangers lose. For the Rangers to clinch, however, there needs to be 16-17 such occasions.

Not taking this as a diss at all, by the way. Seems to build on it, if anything!

Not to sound cocky, but it would take an intervention from the Twilight Zone to save the Rangers’ season. They have the same team OBP as the Pirates, and with Michael Young out and Josh Hamilton trending in that direction, they’ll have to pitch their way to the playoffs. But Kevin Millwood has a 5.92 ERA in the second half. Derek Holland has allowed 22 ER in his last 12 IP. That leaves Scott Feldman (101 ERA+ career), Brandon McCarthy (100 ERA+ career), and Tommy Hunter (95 ERA+ career) to pitch them to a division title, with possible guest appearances by Doug Mathis (100 ERA+) and Dustin Nippert (79 ERA+).

These guys are all currently enjoying ridiculously low BABIPs and stupid high strand rates, it’s true, but raise your hand if you’re worried about this rotation doing what Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano did for the Cubs in 2003. The only similarity I can see is Ron Washington possibly blowing out some young arms just like Dusty Baker. The Angels are just pitching too well right now to totally collapse.

According to my program—if the Angels continue at their season-long win rate of 59.6% (which the program automatically rounds up to 60%), the Rangers must go 20 and 6 over the rest of the season in order to catch the Halos. If, on the other hand, the Halos play consistent with how they’ve played over the last week, at roughly .500 (that is, 13-13 the rest of the way) the Rangers have to go a mere 18 and 8 in order to catch them.

In other words, prospects are as of right now still looking good!