Aroldis Chapman: Signs w/ Cincy Reds
Did not see this coming...
over 2 years ago
Rev Halofan
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They can have him
For that money?! I would go to 20-22 mil tops, but 30 mil for an unproven minor leaguer? Good luck to him
The bat of Howie will rise again!
We Fly Flags
R.I.P. #34
by The Furious Bat of Howie47 on Jan 10, 2010 11:16 AM PST reply actions
It sounds like the financial hit will be spread out over a decade
“Chapman’s major league deal with the Reds is around five years, $25MM with a player option for a sixth year. The payment will be spread out over ten years. Chapman’s 2010 salary will be around $1MM”
As much as I would have liked him as an Angel
it’s too much money for a guy that wont sniff the majors for at least 3 seasons
+1
I wanted the Angels to grab him but not at that price.
I have no problem with him signing with a non-playoff team in another league. That’s just fine.
Justification is grand
Angels did the same thing with Morales when they signed him as well. To think that the Angels are a buyer for 2010 is laughable. They have cut payroll on the field and the front office along with the announcers. Its going to be a grind this year as they battle for a Div title in order to keep season tix holders.
by Angel Aviator on Jan 10, 2010 11:02 PM PST up reply actions
Cut payroll?
Not a lot. As I compile it, the 25-man roster should be right around $111 milliones de dollores as of right now. That’s off from last year’s number (~$113M) only marginally and assumes no other moves happen. Salary increases for Arb-eligible folks alone will represent around a $12M increase over ’09. Weaver, Saunders, Kendrick and Aybar especially will get big increases.
There’s no reason to expect that the payroll will grow in a linear (constantly up) way every year. Outgrowing your revenues too quickly is a good way to become the Orioles…
I’m not interested in being an apologist for the FO. Too much takes place behind the scenes for that. I’m only trying to put some context around all of this (for myself as well). If MLB team fandom was assigned by lottery, and I won the Angels this year, after having some time to look over the team they are going to field I’d be pretty bullish.
"Sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
That sucks.
The $28-30 mil seems quite a bit higher than what the others were reportedly bidding, so as much as I was hoping that he’d sign with the Angels, I can understand them not breaking their threshold.
Well, at least he didn’t sign with an AL club. There’s your ray of sunshine in an otherwise mostly cloudy winter.
1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com
Je-Je-Je- Jesus tap-dancing Christ!!!
30 effin’ million?!
What is this world coming to?
My desire for a salary cap just went up several points.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Jan 10, 2010 11:29 AM PST reply actions
Some idiot
game GMJ 30 effin million and then decided to add on another 20.
by MH252525 on Jan 10, 2010 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
um, while that signing was a bit much...
GMJ had proved himself. To the point where he deserved 55 million? No, definitely not. But your comparing apples to oranges. Chapman hasnt even played a game in the MLB yet….
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
proven himself as a journeyman
I’ll bet Chapman comes closer to earning the $30MM than GMJ did.
And I like GMJ
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Moondogger: Completely off topic...
…and perhaps already addressed somewhere, but how the heck is Thailand?
"Sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
Off Topic?
it was a direct response to the ’Stache’s comment about GMJ proving himself.
Thailand is great. How’r the waves breaking?
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Off-topic
I think LAAS meant his comment to you was off-topic.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 6:01 PM PST up reply actions
Glad you are doing well in the Thai Kingdom
and I was unclear above.
"Sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
Yeah, well I should actually read the whole post
Everything here is great. Getting used to working through extreme time zones is going to tale some getting used to. I’ve done it before, just not on a full time basis. It was fun to watch the bowls and playoff games for breakfast.
The weather is warm and the people are friendly. Of course, the women are unbelievable. But, as my wife constantly reminds me, “forget about that.”
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Whoa whoa whao
posted from a yellow submarine.
by Figgi4life on Jan 10, 2010 11:29 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Didn't mean to post that early
I can’t believe the Reds, of all teams, would drive the price up that high.
posted from a yellow submarine.
by Figgi4life on Jan 10, 2010 11:43 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
30 million?
Well Aroldis, enjoy the weather and Skyline Chili. Having been there before, I can honestly say the only good thing about Cincinnati is WKRP in Cincinnati.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
I heard it said before
There are only three good things about CIncy: Doctor Johnny Fever and Loni Anderson’s twins.
by Rev Halofan on Jan 10, 2010 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Having lived there for a year and a half, I can confirm this. Cincinatti blows.
~Till the Halo burns out...
what about the skyline chili? even bourdain ate that stuff
Driven into right-center field, Erstad says he has it...the Angels, world champions!
Skyline Chili isn't bad, but it's no In-N-Out.
But then again, alot of the people back east think Taco Bell and Panda Express are authentic.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
I spent an awesome...
six hours in the airport in 2003 and the airport sucks ass too. I could tell the town blew by the airport. Everyone was happy to be there – leaving Cincy.
That all said, I wish this $30 million was spent by the Halos. He has crazy velocity. Even as an 8th inning guy – he earns $30 million over 5 or 6 years. If he closes or if he figures out how to start – forget about it.
RIP Nick...
Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home
You were actually
In North Kentucky at the airport. Not that it made much of a difference.
I drove through Cincy last summer, and tried to visit the ballpark, but all the lots were closed and there was a ton of construction happening. So, I just drove around a few times, snapped a couple pictures, and went along my way. It was impossible to find the right highway entrance to head south on I-75.
1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com
You forgot Edinson Volquez
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 10, 2010 12:31 PM PST up reply actions
The 2010 Season will define Mike Scioscia
Lackey = gonzo
Figgins = gonzo in Division
Vlad = gonzo in Division
Oliver = gonzo in Division?
Off Season moves
Matsui
some average reliever
Hmmmmmm……………
When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!
by Dono Romantico on Jan 10, 2010 11:52 AM PST reply actions
And that's why
the Mariners and Rangers are just as likely to win the AL West in 2010 as the Angels.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Jan 10, 2010 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow, according to that, Howie Kendrick is our best player.
Either that evaluation method is complete bullshit or the Angels are pretty fucked big time.
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 10, 2010 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
but seriously
The 3.6 WAR for Kendrick is probably a little high. I think Chone underestimates but would be happy to split the difference between the two and settle for around a 3.2 WAR estimate for Kendrick, making Weaver’s and Hunter’s 3.5 WAR the highest on the team.
Kendrick is getting a big boost this year due to the “age curve”.
vr, Xei
We out preform our WAR every year!
Also, how is Kendry not in that top 10 list? I call shenanigans!!!
by lightupthehalo29 on Jan 10, 2010 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
Regression to the mean
… Kendry gets heavily regressed due to only having a one year track history of plus performance at the major league level. And if you think that is incorrect then don’t argue with me, take it up with CHONE and some of the other prognosticators. :)
vr, Xei
Ah, You got AL West up.
Cool.
Thanks.
"Sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
I don't take people who can't spell Torii very seriously
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
DEFINE Mike Scioscia???
How about those 5 division titles in the last 6 years. Oh and that World Series from a Wild Card berth…c’mon DONO, I expect more out of you.
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
Words right out of my mouth
I miss Hudler already.
by Teixeira Who? on Jan 11, 2010 2:28 AM PST up reply actions
Senor Stache
in baseball as in most modern era sports, I believe that the mentality of “what have you done for me lately” is what most managers are ultimately judged by. In all fairness to Sosh, his past winning record will definitely offset a season or two of not making the playoffs…should that happen. My point is that after losing your numero uno starter and one of your top “table setters” along with your division rivals getting stronger without your own team making any significant moves, to me means we will see how great Sosh is. Or are the Angels to be judged more by the talent they have? We all know it’s arguable as to what percentage of both it is. All I am saying is that to date when Sosh has had the teams he wanted, he has been a great regular season manager, but he has yet to get “his team” to the World Series. The 2002 team was with Disney and nobody ever predicted the Halos winning it all that season, let alone winning the wild card. In 2002 the team won that WS more than it was Mike’s brilliant coaching In The Playoffs. To give Mike credit, his managing/coaching skills are excellent in the long run (regular season),.but I do not think it is good in short pressure filled series like the playoffs. If so, his more talented teams (than those of the 2002 squad) would made it to the WS by now. He does not come off as the type of coach that loosens up his team, just look at his demeanor in the dugout, his team is a reflection of him on the field.
Since 2002 and particularly when Arte became the owner, Sosh has had most of what he wanted to get the WS. The Angels have been picked to win it a few times as well, but Sosh’s teams have always come up short. And with that said, I think that if 2009’s team was brought back this year and remained healthy, they would be right back in the ALCS and very possibly in the WS because of the Players talent, experience, and desire due to being so close in 09 only to lose primarily by beating themselves with errors. And that is something the players need to figure out on their own because again, I feel that Sosh’s style of coaching and his dominating demeanor does not help loosen the dugout, when it is needed in the playoffs. Sure he is stoic, but everyone knows Mike is a giant pressure cooker inside.
I also beleive that as much as this maybe strictly economics for Arte, I feel he finally saying it’s time to put up or shut up and really test out how good our prospects are and that is where Scioscia’s managing and coaching skills will be put in the limelight.
Just one man’s opinion. All I am hoping for is what we all are….another World Series title.
When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!
by Dono Romantico on Jan 11, 2010 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
There are more inherent contradictions in that paragraph than I want to even begin to address.
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
too late
When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!
by Dono Romantico on Jan 12, 2010 7:14 PM PST up reply actions
seriously, these rumours are such a load of crap.
I heard an interview with Matt Holliday yesterday on XM, and he said that about 99% of the rumours he heard about himself were utter fabrications.
by Wally's World on Jan 10, 2010 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
I bet he starts on Reds 25 man roster...
Who else they got? Might as well.
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 1:05 PM PST reply actions
Wtf?
Honestly, I’m not that bummed about not getting him, esp. at this ridiculous price, but really? Cincinnati? This REALLY came out of nowhere!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
Good lord
Well, this doesn’t make me feel bad at all. Leave it to an aimless franchise like Cincinnati to blow up the market for the more deliberate front offices. The fact that even the Yankees and Red Sox backed off at that price says something. Just like Texas and A-Rod back in 2000.
Anyways, it’s been a rough off-season for the Angels, but really, what could they have done better? When everyone else wants to overpay for aging veterans or unproven kids, is joining them the way to go? You can only regret things you don’t have control over so much.
I'm less upset about what they did'nt do...
..but can’t overlook what they have done. Their one big pitching move to date was to overpay for Rodney.
At least the Rodney deal, coupled with HGH’s, gives the GM formally known as the ninja wasted FA contracts to be used as bookends.
The Rodney deal
While the Angels may have possibly overpaid, the deal was appropriate with what the market was for relievers. Its only a 2 year deal, so this deal definitely didn’t break the bank. And I don’t think Rodney will be a waste, rather he’ll be a good fit for what could be a dominant bullpen.
1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com
by Slasher52 on Jan 10, 2010 2:49 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Enough with the griping about the Rodney deal.
If Shields doesn’t come back this could wind up being a huge pickup. If Shields does come back then we have an arm in reserve. Either way, it isn’t like we re-wrote Mike Hampton’s deal for Rodney.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 5:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How is it a "huge pick up"?
We’ve replaced one very good reliever with a very mediocre one. How is a mediocre player a huge pickup? We have arms on the farm that could make league minimum and pitch as well as Rodney can. By every projection and all recent history, he should expect a guy with a 4.5 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, who puts five men on base via the walk for every nine innings.
Man, loyalty to a man in a golf shirt comes cheap these days. I’m going to post this article in a FanShot again, because the load of crap folks are peddling these days on Rodney makes the Angels fanbase look bad.
Look, let’s call a shit contract for what is. This was a bad decision, and prevents us from signing better players.
by Turks Teeth on Jan 10, 2010 6:44 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Sorry you don't like the signing
I didn’t say it was genius, simply that it provides insurance in case Shields doesn’t return to form. Having one more arm in the pen can hardly be said to be a bad thing, when one considers that pen has held such luminaries as Chris Resop, Greg Jones and Jason Christiansen in past seasons as alleged solutions.
Furthermore, there is no evidence that signing Rodney in any way precluded signing another player, be it Figgins, Lackey, Oliver or anyone else. This is in no way equivalent to signing Jeret Wright, or Justin Speier or Mike Hampton. In the great scheme of things, it is a short-term deal. The team is paying Speier $5.25M in 2010 not to pitch at all, but that didn’t stop it from signing Abreu and Matsui, and the team didn’t non-tender any players because it didn’t want to pay the player in arbitration.
It never ceases to amuse how the fans, when the team comes up short in bidding on a player the fans do like on a deal worth many tens of millions of dollars over 4 or more years (think Teixeira, Lackey, Figgins, etc), the team is said to be cheap, but when it signs a player those same fans don’t like to a much lesser deal over a much shorter time frame, the team is said to be wasteful.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
We have a target budget. It's a zero sum game.
We put six million out of reach, on a spare part that we should be able to find on our farm or for much less, and we hurt our depth and flexibility — especially when the contract is multiyear. Someone like Chris Resop was a shot in the dark — a bad one — but Donnelly, Shields, Weber, Bulger, etc etc — these were all cheap “shot in the dark” solutions too. You can put six million into a hole like Rodney and say you did something, or you can use it on five or six minor league contracts, or high-risk high-reward gambles like Rich Harden.
I’m surprised you don’t find the Speier example more instructive. It’s not a contrast, it’s a comparison.
And I don’t grok your last paragraph. You must be talking past me. I was not advocate for paying Lackey or Teixeira the big bucks. Nor do I think the Rodney deal was cheap or short. Two years is already too long for that player. To my mind, you’re creating a false choice.
More here.
by Turks Teeth on Jan 10, 2010 8:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
At least Speier had a track record.
And his first year was good for us.
Not that I ever agreed with the length of that contract. Speier for two years, eight million I could’ve understood.
The point, again, is what we spend our chips on. Kiko Calero or Fernando Rodney? For instance.
We could’ve got Kiko for one year, 2-3M. Almost certainly.
Was Rich Harden going to pitch out of the pen?
It doesn’t appear the front office was seeking a starter who wasn’t name Roy Halliday, so saying that we could have spent $6M on Harden is like saying we could have spent $6M to sign Russell Branyan to back up Kendry—what for?
The front office clearly came to a decision that the bullpen needed an extra arm beyond the talent already under the tent. Whether this is insurance for Shields, or a plan to deny Fuentes his 55 GF to keep the option for 2011 from vesting, or because they thought they could make a bundle finding way to brand “F-Rod” on t-shirts and hats—we don’t know. What we do know is that the team identified Rodney as the arm it wanted, and the simple fact is that $5M to $6M for a pitcher with late-inning experience isn’t a king’s ransom in 2010, and the team might think it can iron out the problem in Rodney which causes the wildness.
You put Kiko Calero up as an alternative, but the only thing I can see about him is that he would sign for less money. He had a career year last season at age 34, and expecting him to replicate those results in 2010 is kind of like thinking Gary Matthews Jr is going to replicate 2006, ever. In fact, the parallel to Matthews is sort of interesting, such as that each was DFA’d at least once from teams which weren’t exactly dripping with talent otherwise.
In any case, the signing of Rodney is hardly as awful as you make it out to be, and since you’ve made your distaste quite clear, the continued demagoging on the subject is really curious. It’s done, move on. Only time will tell if the signing is a great move, a bonehead decision, or something which has little to no affect upon the 2010 season.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 8:35 PM PST up reply actions
No, it was a an awful signing.
The FO was blinded by the save statistic, ignoring underlying fundamental stats (the 1.50 or there abouts WHIP for instance) and then completely overbid what the market for Rodney is.
A reliever who lets that many runners on base per inning is someone you give a shot at making a spot in the pen as a mop-up guy, not an insurance policy in case your star setup guy doesn’t come back from injury. And you certainly don’t go multi-year on a fucknut like that.
Can you back these comments up with a little data?
I keep seeing folks make comments like this, then fail to back them up with anything real.
Name 3-4 RP comps that justify the money Rodney made this off-season. RPs with similar value.
Rodney delivered 0.3 WAR value last season, and 0.4 WAR value in 2008. That’s good for $2.6M over two seasons. Over the past seven seasons, Rodney has delivered a grand total of 3 WAR — good for 11.5M total — over seven years, mind you. By contrast, Darren Oliver provided $11.5M in value in his past two years with the Halos.
Reagins paid more than four times what Rodney was worth. That makes him a fool on this contract, and foolish behavior like this hurts the Angels in future bargaining scenarios. The only reason Rodney was “worth” $11M this offseason, is because a fool gave it to him.
by Turks Teeth on Jan 10, 2010 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
oh dear an overspend
we are doomed.
Dude, Rodney is not the best contract in history, but do you REALLY expect Darren 39 year old Oliver to put up two seasons of excellence to match the past two?
If Rodney’s appearances thwart Fuentes’ option kicking in he is worth it. To fixate on the 3rd or 4th most important pitcher in the bullpen making half of What Gary Matthews is making over the next two seasons is proof of your anxiety, not any inadequacies of the Angels’ front office.
by Rev Halofan on Jan 10, 2010 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, I expected Darren Oliver to put up one more decent season.
Why are you fudging with the “two” hokum when it was an arbitration scenario.
Fuentes is better than Rodney, and Fuentes isn’t that good. You’ve been watching baseball too long not to know that.
It’s not about overpaying — it’s about what gets done with the budget. You love man in a uniform too much, Rev. I just don’t get your piety.
What is all this budget nonsense?
Are you Arte’s accountant or something, with intimate knowledge of the private books? If not, stop paying so much attention to public comentary by the Front Office and lose the “budget” whine.
The Forbes data on 2009 won’t be out until June. Until then, we know that over the prior 3 years revenue has grown nearly $30 mill, gate receipts have grown $20 mill, operating income is holding steady, team value has risen about 38% and debt to value has dropped about 30%.
Meanwhile, between Figgy/Lackey/Vlad/Q/Oliver they have some $30.6 mill coming off of payroll, not counting insurance and other costs.
This franchise just got financially healthy in spades. They better drop the beer prices again. Or buy an In’N’Out franchise for the RF Pavilion.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
The problem is Fuentes...
Fuentes is the worst pithcer in our bullpen in the second half of 2009 and he got 2+1 contract about 30M/3years. That is the main problem.
In fact, I think the best thing to do is to sign Rodeny, give Oliver arbitrtion and trade Fuentes(and eat partial of salary).
The overspending isn't the main issue here.
The main issue is that we let a good reliever go and replaced him with a bad one. The fact that is was top dollar and multi-year is just an extra poke in the eye.
Ok. 3 rightys and two lefties.
Brandon Lyon. 3/$15M, not balanced, slightly backloaded.
Mike Gonzalez. 2/$12M
Brett Myers: 1/$5M (Starter/Reliever/Who knows)
Rafael Soriano: 1/$7.25M
Billy Wagner: 1/$7M
Each of these guys have set-up and closing experience, just as Rodney’s role will likely be in Anaheim. If I recall correctly, at least 3 of this guys listed above were Type A FAs and would have cost a first rounder. Like I said in my original post, the Angels may have slightly overspent, but we’re talking about maybe a million or two at most over the life of the deal. Rodney would have gotten a multi-deal without a doubt and likely similar money had the Angels not signed him.
There is a number of relievers who signed in the $3-5M range, including Darren Oliver, Matt Capps, Takashi Saito, John Grabow, J.J. Putz. Each of them, with the possible exception of the lefties, have a recent injury or had a poor 2009 that affected their values. None of these folks have the power arm AND health of Rodney.
Still out there on the market is Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg, Brendan Donnelly, Kiko Calero, and Miguel Batista, amongst others.
1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com
by Slasher52 on Jan 10, 2010 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Are we done with "Angels are the front runners for (insert players name)"
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
Always??
Since when?
Check out these games:
Multiplayer Baseball: http://www.mmobaseball.com/createaccount.aspx?ref=9687
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by matthiasstephan on Jan 10, 2010 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
Ugh.
OK, pick apart the use of the word “always”. Glad you got it out of your system, I guess you won’t have to beat the dog tonight.
Well ...
I would argue it isn’t even often. Maybe it has happened couple of times in the past couple of years, but Arte doesn’t really have a reputation for overpaying players or bringing in high-priced free agents. The Angels certainly don’t do it year in and year out (which is why the Teix move was such a shock and we can keep complaining about the HGH move, since it was the worst in recent memory but still a few years ago). This low key off season is considerably more typical for the Angels.
Check out these games:
Multiplayer Baseball: http://www.mmobaseball.com/createaccount.aspx?ref=9687
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by matthiasstephan on Jan 11, 2010 4:25 AM PST up reply actions
LOL
The Reds, a team I followed growing up, seem to be hell-bent on being just flat-out lame going on 15 years now. They’re a mid-market team, so they just blew type-A FA money on a guy who won’t be major league ready until 2011 at the earliest, maybe 2012, while the big club continues to amble along aimlessly – not downright awful, but not close to contending for the playoffs. Maybe by the time Chapman makes the big club, they’ll be ready to trade away (or lose to free agency) whatever talent they currently have right now.
ZING!!!!!!!
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Jan 10, 2010 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
Here's the deal ...
Instead of working it out in the minor leagues. He works it out in the Minor League for three seasons, then gets traded to the Yankess.
Not worth the price.
Reds.
Minor League.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Jan 10, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
I guess this puts to rest the "Kendry gives us an inside edge" nonsense
From the start, many of us said, “it will be about money, and only about money.”
Sure enough, if the report is true, this kid will be signing not for a prestige organization, or the best and most nurturing environment within which to develop, but for the team which offered the most money.
Likewise, it is interesting to note that the teams with the deepest pockets fell by the wayside long before the high $20Ms. A report on MLB Radio two days ago said the Jays had gone to $23M, and I figured then the Angels had bailed.
The kid will have to be the lovechild of Sandy Koufax and Desi Arnaz to justify this sort of investment, and he’ll need to prove himself in the bigs before the third year of his alleged five-year deal is completed for any of this to pencil out for the Reds.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
That's a huge IF
Consider that two-plus years in the minors, followed by two and a fraction in the bigs, doesn’t give much opportunity for Chapman to be any team’s ace. He might be a #4 or #5, in which case $15M per is totally out of line.
Maybe his deal is structured like Kendry’s, in which case the time in AAA and below isn’t as costly and the deal makes more sense. But paying untested talent (which he will be, even after seasons in the minors) $5M/yr to be the #4 or #5 is just nuts.
There is a reason kids come to the majors making MLB minimum and occupy the #4 and #5 slots in rotations. Greinke didn’t make more than $400K until 2008 (his first year of arbitration), and the deal he signed then with KC (which is a good bogey for evaluating the Reds, in terms of market and revenue) was $38m/4 yrs—that was AFTER he had proven himself for years at the MLB level.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 6:49 PM PST up reply actions
The alternative
The alternative, of course, is that the brain trust with the Reds rushes Chapman along, like David Nied or David Clyde, buys out the options on Harang and/or Arroyo to reduce payroll in 2011, and places the weight of the world in terms of expectations upon Chapman.
Add in Dusty Baker’s expert use of pitchers and that is a highly combustible recipe. It worked so well with Homer Bailey, after all.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
LOL at least the A's didnt get him
Let chapman waste away on the reds who have 1 playoff appearance in 19 yrs and pitching in a launching pad ballpark
Add in the fact the cincinnati is one of the most unhealthy cities in the US. These cubans love their american fast food. He’ll balloon up like livan hernandez
Buster_ESPN
Heard this: Oakland finished second in the Aroldis Chapman bidding. The Reds and Oakland: willing to go high risk on possible high reward.
about 1 hour ago from web
chapman wasnt going to start the year as our 5th
probably o’sullivan.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Jan 10, 2010 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
Chapman isn't going to start ANYWHERE until late 2011 at the earliest
And some scouts think he’s going to wind up in the bullpen, especially if he can’t work through the lineup 3X on a consistent basis.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Jan 10, 2010 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
False
If he were going to the Sox or here that would be true. Cincy has already said they could see him up there later this year.
But he might not…
by lightupthehalo29 on Jan 11, 2010 12:30 AM PST up reply actions
Pinero would be great
assuming the price is right.
I miss Hudler already.
by Teixeira Who? on Jan 11, 2010 2:32 AM PST up reply actions
Wowsers
This seems like a huge waste of money for a mid-market team. I had my fingers crossed for a possible Chapman, Reckling, Walden big three for 2012, but not for $30mil on a major league contract.
as Officer Barbrady would say........
Okay people move along…….nothing to see here……..
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 11, 2010 8:25 AM PST reply actions
Upon further review...
It struck me as curious that the teams with the deepest pockets left the chase and the teams remaining included “poor” teams like the Reds and Athletics.
So, assuming the contract is, as reported, 5 years with an option for a 6th, and assuming that Chapman needs to spend at least two of those seasons in the minors to develop to a point where he can contribute at the MLB level, that gives the Reds at best four seasons of Chapman, maybe less.
And then what? There are three possible scenarios from what is to come:
- Chapman is a complete bust and the $25M is down the rathole (since the 6th season wouldn’t be picked up).
- Chapman is not a bust but startlingly mediocre, in which case the Reds paid $6.25M to $7.5M per season for the four seasons he pitches at the pro level
- Chapman is all he’s hyped to be, in which case the Reds can’t re-sign him and the Yankees, et al, swoop in and sign the free agent 6 years hence, when Chapman will still be only 28 and presumably entering the prime of his career.
Meanwhile, the reported bid by the Red Sox—a team which showed with Dice-K that they were willing to do whatever it took to land the prospect, topped out at $15m/5 yrs, a little more than half of what the Reds will be paying. The Angels apparently went up closer to $20M. but they likewise had a ceiling on their bid.
Maybe the Red Sox and Angels weren’t that impressed with Chapman, or maybe they’re more than willing to let another team prep and train the raw talent for six years, then step up and make him a fantastic offer if he works out as advertised. It took Randy Johnson years before he was the dominating pitcher who will walk into the HoF in about 5 years from now. While Johnson could get it to triple digits, he also led the AL in walks for three straight seasons with the Mariners. It was maybe six seasons before he matured into the Randy Johnson most folks think of.
I am thinking the Tom Sawyers of baseball just snookered the other teams into whitewashing the fence for them. I can’t imagine any scenario where this makes financial sense for the Reds, aside from tapping into the enormous Cuban population of Cincinnati.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
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