A Few Facts for Fernando Rodney Fans
When Tony Reagins delivered us the Rod, he also gave us the shaft.
Fernando Rodney is not a good pitcher. Fun guy -- lots of character -- but his control is awful, he provides little or no value above above a replacement player, and his saves last year were a mirage. It doesn't take long looking at his stats or the game logs to see what a terminal project this guy is, yet he has countless defenders in these forums.
Hey, I'm a man who likes character in my players. My screenname in these parts pays homage to a similar character.
But Turk had a good run amid the fun, one that Rodney has not. Reagins overpaid, pure and simple. He paid more than four times the value delivered by the pitcher over the past two seasons. He paid three times as much as the Nats did for Matt Capps, a reliever with a poor year last season but a far better cumulative record of success. He paid three times as much as Texas did for a reliever in Darren Oliver who delivered as much value in the past two years as Rodney has done in his full career.
Those fans that say Reagins was only paying market prices need to contend with those two points first. Then read these two analyses next:
Some highlights after the jump...
Given the Angels’ track record of uncovering bullpen gems, one might find it strange that the team has laid down a big chunk of change on free agent relievers in recent off-seasons. Justin Speier pulled down $18 million while contributing -0.2 WAR. Brian Fuentes compiled 0.4 WAR in 2009 while making $8.5M. He’ll earn $9M in 2010, and has a $9M vesting option for 2011. Fun fact: Donnelly came out of nowhere, again, to post a 0.6 WAR season with the Marlins in 2009. The cost? A minor league deal.
Add Fernando Rodney to the list of high-profile relief signings. The long-time Tiger, 33 in March, inked for two years and $11M recently. It’s a level of compensation that Rodney has not justified during his major league tenure.
Either way, Rodney’s an Angel now and there will be a certain set of fans that love this move. Most of them will love it because of Rodney’s save percentage. They’re wrong — saves are an awful way of measuring a pitcher’s value, probably even worse than using wins.
I find it bizarre when people that spend many hour a week following a sports team don't give themselves the tools to analyze the team in detail. But that's their prerogative. If folks think it's meaningful to give up seven runs in 6.2 innings against the Chicago White Sox last season and earn three saves from those performances, so be it. It's more alarming when the professionals in charge of the team deny themselves better tools and come to bad conclusions while believing in such hokum.
IMO, this should concern fans that have a blood and soul stake in their team, but a lot of folks are pretty sanguine on this deal, and the defense usually takes the form of a defense of our rookie GM. I've never understood loyalty to men in golf shirts just for the sake of it, and to me, Tony Reagins thusfar seems like just another man in a golf shirt who has made a couple market-value deals on aging veterans (Abreu, Matsui) while overpaying on everyone else and letting cheap good relievers like Darren O'Day fall off the vine due to lack of due diligence and oversight.
To me, loyalty to bad managers doesn't mean you're a good fan, nor does being uninformed and exaggerating the value of crap players; it just means you're ultimately ambivalent about your team's success. It's reactive loyalty to brand over product. Good fans fight for good results. That's my baseline. Scioscia's a pretty solid manager, though he's also had a flush wallet behind him most of this decade. Nevertheless, Reagins -- a man who was strong in a player development context -- seems to be clueless about economics and player value. The Rodney deal is just one more piece of evidence that he's not minding the store.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Comments
Abreu was an okay aquisition, not the best ever but very solid,
as for Matsui and Rodney, I have no idea what the Angels front office is thinking in regards to these players. Granted this is a pretty weak FA market, and the economy, especially in Southern California sucks. But the Angels let every big (and good ) FA go to other teams. Some people have been touting that they would land Chapman, well he looks to be a Red now. The Angels look set to start the season with 2 solid starting pitchers, and then whoever else they send to the mound and cross their fingers. If they intend to save money and rebuild, then just do it and bring up minor league players who will play their hearts out, and for less pay. signing Matsui and Rodney is a sham.
Here is what you forgot...
Rank the Angels 25-Man roster in order of most important player to least important player.
If Aybar or Hunter or Morales or Weaver or Saunders (or fifteen other Angels) go down, we are twenty times more fucked than if Rodney sucks.
It is like worrying about when we traded Jose Molina. Rodney’s presence in the bullpen is almost inconsequential to the success of this team.
Frankly I would have preferred that they signed Jose Valverde, but … whatever.
Unfortunately, Rodney's presnece on the balance sheet is quite consequential to the future success of the team
Maybe I’ve grown cynical in my advanced age, but it seems like one of us is running the team, not an actual GM.
http://inplaynoouts.blogspot.com/ - A blog about teams I like, written by me.
#34
by Carl Johnson on Jan 10, 2010 8:30 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe I’ve grown cynical in my advanced age, but it seems like one of us is running the team, not an actual GM.
word
It's Always Somethin'
by Funke5ive on Jan 11, 2010 1:49 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Especially if Shields bounces back and Jepsen remains decent, signing Rodney isn’t a big deal.
No matter what happens from here on, it has been a great season.
by Rally Manatee on Jan 11, 2010 4:31 PM PST up reply actions
If Aybar and Hunter go down, as long as its not a season ending injury we should be okay
if Weaver or Saunders, or possibly both go down for even a month or two then we are screwed. To date, those two are the Angels only solid starting pitchers who you can count on to be solid when they take the mound, the rest of the starting rotation is a crap shoot, unless one or more of them proves me wrong and steps up their game this season. The Angels depend on good pitching, and fast and agressive base running, they are not a power hitting team, even with Matsui. The Angels need shut down pitching and Valverde would have been a much better signing than Rodney.
Kazmir
in the regular season, was about as automatic as a pitcher can get.
No matter what happens from here on, it has been a great season.
by Rally Manatee on Jan 11, 2010 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
Ahhhh....Turk Wendell
I liked you better when I thought you were reppin’ Turk 182.
It's Always Somethin'
but..but... ninja....
but…uh…del taco… uhhh
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
Admittedly,
some of the questionable moves this offseason may cause many Halo fans some disillusionment in the Del Ninja.
No matter what happens from here on, it has been a great season.
by Rally Manatee on Jan 11, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
I, for one, would be deliriously happy to drop this whole Ninja/Del Taco meme.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
by Stirrups on Jan 11, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Never had me a Geisha. But I hear they aren't all they are made out to be.
Now, Pup’n’Taco on the other hand…
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
His claim to fame
was offering torii hunter a fat contract with artes money.
You know who also could do that?
Everybody on this message board.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Jan 12, 2010 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
His claim to fame
was convincing Arte that Hunter was worth the cost and I highly doubt anyone on this board could convince Arte to give up 9 dollars let alone 90 million.
R.I.P. King Ad-Rock #34
NINJAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Jan 12, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
We have 3 first round draft picks + 2 supplemental first round draft picks...
In 2009 we had 5 first round draft picks. So in a two year span the Angels get to select TEN first rounders. Out of all the teams that made it to the playoffs last year, how many get to say that?
I agree in that this year is going to be tough. However, if you want this to be a long, successful franchise, and NOT the Florida Marlins or Arizona Diamondbacks or the Atlanta Braves, then you need to sometimes think long term.
We had some aging free-agents who could’ve helped us next year but not so much down to road. Why not let them go now, acquire some players that dont cost us our future, and work with what we have for a year. Sure, its going to be tough but its not like our team all of a sudden became BAD. Anyone who thinks that is crazy…
In addition to all of that, next year’s free agent market is going to be huge. Maybe we go after someone big, maybe we dont. But one thing that Ninja and Arte are insuring is that when you get old you and your kids can still root for a damn good team and not some team that was good in one, specific era.
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 9:55 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
But aren't these points orthogonal to the Rodney acquisition?
I’m stoked about lots of draft picks — always am. But letting free agents walk ain’t that difficult. It’s not some stroke of genius to harvest draft picks. The fact is, we’re desperate for draft picks from four years of neglect. Evaluations have shown we netted the 29th worst value out of the four years of drafts between 2005-2008.
It’s a silver lining. But if we were really focused on maximizing our drafts, why not sock a little of that $11M away for signing bonuses, international signings, and strategic minor league acquisitions? Some are poopooing the misuse of funds, but at some level — especially in a recessionary environment — this is a zero sum game. An $11M commitment means we don’t spend that money elsewhere, and means we’ve locked an expensive player into one of our bullpen slots, and will be much less likely to demote him should he flail. When we’re roadtesting rookies, the leash will be much shorter. But Rodney will get many months to air out his kinks.
I think thats the real question
Some are poopooing the misuse of funds, but at some level — especially in a recessionary environment — this is a zero sum game. An $11M commitment means we don’t spend that money elsewhere…
Does spending 11 million on Rodney mean we dont spend the 11 million somewhere else? Or does it mean Arte is just a little less rich and has to throw up a couple more bilboards on the 5? We will probably never know for sure, but I would doubt that signing Rodney means we dont spend the money on other things seen as a necessity.
If we used that logic, had we signed Teixiera, we would have to let go of Hunter and collapse a minor league team. That is simply not how the team operates under Arte. Like any rich guy, he spends on what he sees as either a need or a want. Obviously he felt like he needed someone in the ’pen. Rodney was the best available (maybe not by our standards but at least by the FO standards) so he got him. Sure there are financial constraints somewhere, but I seriously doubt we have even begun to approach them yet. Arte is more concerned about value and viability than he is about cash.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 11, 2010 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
But, why didn’t we spent Rodney’s money on a better pitcher is the question, I guess. There were better options available for less money. DJ Carrasco, Kiko Calero, Matt Capps, etc.
If value was the concern, the Rodney signing was a poor expression of it.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Jan 19, 2010 5:14 AM PST up reply actions
What do you mean?
Are you saying that you won’t be lining up for your Fernando Rodney Angels Replica Jersey? Haaaaaaaaaaaa!
by righteous halo on Jan 13, 2010 7:43 AM PST up reply actions
Actually, I think we should start an official Fernando Rodney fan club!
I’m working on a song, or a limerick, or something for him even as we speak.
And when do the F Rod jerseys come out?
I might buy a Rodney jersey
if it says Rodney on the Roq and it is jersey number 106.7
by Rev Halofan on Jan 10, 2010 11:18 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Nice
when was the last time THAT dude graced ther airwaves? I’m thinking the end of the British Invasion Part Deux, end of the 80’s…
that guys off the air???
god, how things change. I use to listen to that dude in High School!
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 12:53 AM PST up reply actions
whoosh...good to know...
visting SO CAL next week. Might have to turn on the radio at some point…
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 1:17 AM PST up reply actions
I was going to post something similar to this
Rodney’s 2010 peripherals indicate he is a very mediocre pitcher and he got 2yrs/$11mil
K/9 7.26
BB/9 4.88
Batting AVG against .247
HR/9 0.95
WHIP 1.47
I would like to add that that were better relievers who could have been had for either less money or a 1 year contract and would not cost a draft pick. Let’s see some of them stack up against him.
1. Rafael Soriano- Was re-signed by the Braves to a 1-year 7.25mil deal then dealt for virtually nothing.
K/9 12.13 (Ridiculous)
BB/9 3.21
Batting AVG against 1.99
HR/9 0.71
WHIP 1.06
2. Kiko Calero- Has not garnered much interest this offseason possibly because of the injury risk, but was great last year.
K/9 10.35
BB/9 4.50
Batting AVG against .175
HR/9 0.15
WHIP 1.39
3. Octavio Dotel- Is not that much better than Rodney and most likely won’t command as much money unless some other GM pulls a Reagins and offers him 2 years.
K/9 10.83
BB/9 5.20(ewww)
HR/9 1.01
Batting AVG against .235
WHIP 1.44
4. Takashi Saito- Was a huge injury risk, but had a decent 09 and signed for only 1yr/3.2 and had an excellent track record.
K/9 8.41
BB/9 4.04
HR/9 .097
Batting AVG against .242
WHIP 1.35
5. Kevin Gregg- Had a terrible season in 09 and would be lucky to get anything near the $4.2mil he made last year for more than 1 year.
K/9 9.31
BB/9 3.93
HR/9 1.70
Batting AVG against .237
WHIP 1.31
I don’t understand why they chose to offer Rodney the amount of money and years that they did, but I believe they should’ve spent their money a bit more prudently or even saved it for this year’s draft. Even if their plan was to deny Fuentes his option with a bullpen signing, they could have done so by signing someone to a 1 year deal so that 4 bullpen contracts would be shed next offseason.
thanks for omitting innings pitched...
because they obviously have absolutely nothing to do with these stats. OOPS!
I’ve been drinking but here’s some red lights for ya…
Saito is THIRTY NINE YEARS OLD. Pass
Kevin Gregg, c’mon man…really? Do you get back with your ex-girlfriend who had those cottage-cheese thighs? Especially after she’s been around with a few others? Of course not, so why would you even mention Gregg? Been there done that. PASS.
Dotel — an older version of Rodney with a shittier fastball. PASS
Calero – Okay, I like this guy. But look at two things, his ERA was at its highest when he was pitching in AL. Also, he pitched the most innings ever in his entire career in 2009. Which was still almost 20 innings less than Rodney pitched last year. That being said with the addition of his injury history, it seems like Rodney can handle a bit more wear and tear (yeah yeah, Rodney’s been injured too but hes also pitched more than KIKI) AND Rodney is used to pitching in the AL… that being said, Calero is definitely an attractive player and Im surprised we passed him up…
Soriano – Question: Were we even in the race for a relief pitcher by the time Soriano got signed by the Rays? Soriano got signed on December 10th. Lackey got signed on the 16th. Rodney got signed on 25th-ish. Were we still in the pursuit of Lackey by the time that Rays picked up Rafael? Likely. There is a list, somewhere in Tony Reagins office and its a priority list. Beefing up the bullpen was undoubtedly under, signing Vlad or another DH, and offering Lackey a deal. That being said, by the time we signed Matsui, and lost Lackey, Soriano was probably already off the market. SURE….its a stretch. This guy is young and has good numbers. Of course, hes also spent time on the DL and….only really excelled in the NL….
Point being, only one dude out of this list is really, all that better than Rodney. Maybe two, but even that is debatable. I dont see your list being anything but a bunch of guys that give and take are no better or really worse than Rodney.
Kudos for noticing our desire to not give up a first-round draft pick…
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 1:15 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
my bad, here are the IP
Saito- 55.2
Gregg- 68.2
Dotel- 62.1
Calero- 60.0
Soriano- 75.2
Rodney- 75.2
The point was that there was an overabundance of relief options this offseason and most of these guys are expected to get one year deals for around 3-4 million. We can spin the signing anyway we want, but the fact remains that most of these guys will sign more affordable contracts than Rodney and their stats also compare favorably against his.
Even Soriano would have been better for $7 million because it’s a 1yr deal. I don’t give Tony a pass simply because he was “focusing on Lackey”. The Braves were like, “Hey who wants this guy? We’re giving him away” he gets paid to keep an eye on the market in case something like this comes up.
Rodney is not worth $8 million dollars more than guys like Dotel, whom you described as Rodney with a shittier fastball or even slutty ass Kevin Gregg who has to take a paycut because of his terrible 09.
Rodney is probably only better than Saito right now because he is coming off of a major injury in 08 and is 39, but is he $8 million dollars better?
Fernando Rodney is $2.3 million a year better than those players? bwahahahahaha
plus those $8 million are guaranteed dollars. No other team was willing to guarantee Rodney that much money, these are the type of signings usually made by guys like Ed Wade, Omar Minaya and Drayton McClane.
by blochead on Jan 12, 2010 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm only comparing year to year
Saito’s only got a one year deal, if he some how has a monster year, he’ll get paid more next year
Really, I’m indifferent about this move.
As far as saving the money for signing the draft choices, I’m pretty sure that’s already been thought of by the front office & they have a good size chunk of change set aside.
R.I.P. King Ad-Rock #34
Also
DJ Carrasco
Matt Capps
…even Chan Ho Park if the team can overlook that kicking incedent.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Jan 19, 2010 5:16 AM PST up reply actions
Rodney sucks as a pitcher, but is a funny guy?
That’s all I need to know, I’m sold.
Let’s work on a long-term extension before the season starts.
I've got nothing.
Think he could do the Arnold impersonations like Speier did?
What are we gonna do without that?
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 11, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
IF TURK IS RIGHT
IF Rodney is a total bomb, at least he will unite is in an appreciation of Fuentes if not a downright Bri-Fu Love Fest.
The possibilities are endless
If Alex Rodriguez was A-Rod
Francisco Rodriguez was K-Rod
Maybe Fernando Rodney can be. .
F-Rod or Fraud for short.
by righteous halo on Jan 13, 2010 7:45 AM PST up reply actions
Rodney pretty much sucked with Detroit
but I’m waiting to cast judgment until I see what Butcher can do with him. Not to mention, if Fuentes wants his job, he’s going to have to earn it.
Rodney, as Rev said before, isn’t going to be a crucial centerpiece to the success of the Angels and although the price is way too high for my taste, Lord knows we’ve saved money this offseason. I think I’d be up in arms if we signed Benedict Lackey for $80+, that is way too much money. This signing doesn’t really shake us financially. We’re not the Rangers, we have the cash and the FA market was pretty pathetic this year.
As for Tony, I’ll sleep easy when/if we get a 5th starter. Palmer belongs in long relief and I don’t think SOS is ready just yet, let alone Bell. Let’s say we’re up at SafeCo and it’s Lee vs. O’Sullivan. I don’t like that at all and, considering Texas and Seattle both look like they’re ready to play major league ball, we’re going to need those wins.
We’re not doomed yet and, assuming we crash and burn this season, I can guarantee the blame will fall on several pairs of shoulders, not just Rodney’s.
I miss Hudler already.
I don't think this is a bad signing.
I’m pretty sure the decision to sign Rodney wasn’t Reagins’ alone, as he had input from a lot of different people within the organization. If I can speculate, there aren’t too many pitchers, let alone free agent pitchers who have a fastball that averages 95 mph and the Angels wanted him. Did the Angels overpay? Sure, but who cares. What is one or two million extra dollars a year to the Angels? That’s 1% of their payroll budget. The Angels front office decided Rodney was their man and they went out and got him, making an offer he was almost sure to accept.
it is not a big deal
I don’t think rodney is going to be any type of savior or anything =, but his ability to eat up some innings, get some save opportunities taking away Fuentes vesting for next year, and it is not like the guy sucks he is a decent pitcher…
All this means is that we made a decent signing at an overvalued price. not the end of the world.
He if blows chunks he lets us get rid of Fuentes next year and moves into a 7th inning role in his final year allowing Jepsen to take over Closer role. with Shields taking the 8th innings
preferred a 1 year deal or a 2 year deal at less money but whatever
My prediction as of 12-11-2009- Wood .265 avg, 20 HRs 70 RBIs and an above average glove at 3b
by Sinatrasratpack on Jan 11, 2010 8:46 AM PST reply actions
A Counter Argument
As has been suggested by Rev and others, Rodney sucking is just not that huge a deal. So I want harp on about that, however I will give you some food for though in support of Fernando Rodney and paying what is considered over market value by WAR-ers and the like.
The money given to free agent relievers will most of the time represent ‘overpaying’ in relation to WAR. Just for fun, Mariano Rivera for his career is worth (according to WAR) $70.2 million, whilst his salary has totalled $77.3 million. So Mariano, possibly the greatest closer of our time, has been overpayed to date according to WAR. We paid around the free market going rate for Rodders:
Rafael Soriano – 1yr, $7.5mill
Billy Wagner – 1yr, $7mill
Mike Gonzales – 2yr, $12mill ($6mill per year I assume?)
Fernando Rodney – 2yr, $11mill ($5.5mill per year)
Rafael Betancourt – 1yr, $5.4mill
Darren Oliver – 1yr, $3.5mill
Matt Capps – 1yr, $3.5mill
Takeshi Saito – 1yr, $3.2mill
J.J. Putz – 1yr, $3mill
Were there better deals on the market? Possibly. However I think we would look differently at this contract if it was for only one year. All being said, it really isn’t as bad as some would have you believe. It’s market value, or slightly above. If you don’t like the market value for relievers then well, thats another debate…
A common line of argument put forward, is that we paid for ‘saves’ however this ignores the good things and potential Rodney does bring to the table. We know where he is weak. He walks far too many batters and throws too many balls. He doesn’t pound the strike zone as frequently as you would like. These are very good arguments against Rodney being a good to very good reliever. However:
1. Only 6 relievers (one of whom was Kevin Jepsen) had a better average fastball velocity than Rodney last year, he sat at 95.8mph.
2. Rodney last year was a groundball pitcher, who really used his stuff to great effect (128 ground balls to 68 fly balls, with a low line drive percentage of 11.3%. All career highs that point to future success particularly with our solid infield defense).
3. Rodney’s career average K/9 rate is 8.56. last year he posted the lowest K/9 rate of his career, 7.26. When you consider the increase in fastball velocity and effectiveness (check out his fastball pitch type value) this can be considered either a ‘blip’ or a factor of his increased groundball tendancies. Nevertheless, if he can harness the relationship between strikeouts and groundballs (bringing his strikeouts back to career norms) he can become very effective indeed.
4. At 32 (I believe?) Rodney still has a lot to offer, and if Mike Butcher can get him throwing more 1st pitch strikes (last year was his career best at 63% so he is trending in the right direction) and try to reduce, somehow, his ugly walk ratios, we have a very good reliever on our hands.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 11, 2010 9:00 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
Also
While, I don’t think the fact that Rodney is a hard-thrower makes much of a difference (lots of bad relievers throw hard) and I don’t see his age being an advantage there are some good things about Fernando in addition to those you mentioned.
Last year he pitched in non-save situations. Knowing MS, he probably won’t this year. Maybe (lots of “ifs” and “maybes” for the money he is getting), the reduced number of IP will help him with his control.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Jan 19, 2010 5:40 AM PST up reply actions
You make good points, but...
…I think you missed the part where our bullpen isn’t going to be as big of an issue as last year due to the return of Scot Shields and the unlikelihood of our rotation suffering numerous major inuries at the same time again.
Last year we lost Lackey, Santana, Moesely, Adenhart, Loux, and Oliver from our staff at the beginning of the year for various reasons. It’s highly unlikely that the same thing will happen with Weaver, Kazmir, Saunders, Santana and Palmer (or whoever else). Shields should be fine, and Jepsen and Bulger both have a year of experience under their belts now.
And to top it off, we no longer have to account for replacing John “My Season Doesn’t Start ’til June” Lackey until he’s ready to go. Instead we went ahead and permanently replaced him.
Our offense is going to score plenty of runs and our rotation will not be a 5 alarm fire like it was early last year. This means less stress on the pen, which means it won’t turn into a gas can to add to this fire.
Rodney is going to pitch 2 innings at most every few days. He’s not going to hurt us that bad and could turn out to be a nice option to have. Is he getting overpaid some? Yeah, probably. But, when you look at the fact that having him could keep Fuentes’ option from vesting and save us about $4.5 million next year, it’s not so bad.
Am I a “fan” of the Rodney signing? No, but I don’t hate it either. It’s a relatively minor issue and there’s more important things to worry about.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Jan 11, 2010 9:33 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Injuries are one of those things you
cannot assume one way or the other.
Its just treading dangerous ground to say we will or will not have injuries in any certain position.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
True when you're talking about individual injuries
But I’m talking total injuries to the team. Any one player can be injured at any time sure, but the statistical likelihood of what happened simultaneously to our rotation last year happening again is pretty low I’d say.
Same thing for the Mets for another example.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Jan 11, 2010 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
I predict that we will not have injuries at (bullpen) catcher all season.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
These two fangraphs articles are written by biased USS Mariner and Lookout Landing bloggers.
Nary they to write anything remotely positive about the Angels or any of our players or coaches even though we always out perform their projections and WAR.
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
That makes sense.
The M’s replaced Ken Griffey Jr. with Mike Cameron.
They replaced Alex Rodgriguez with Carlos Guillen.
They replaced Edgar Martinez with Raul Ibanez.
What do they know about replacing players?
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
They couldnt replace 2 sure shot and one on the cusp HOFers..
with 3 other hall of famers so that means the Ms aren’t good at replacing players? That is some backwars thinking, not to mention each of those 3 players are still in the bigs and will still be contributing next season.
by seamariners85 on Jan 11, 2010 3:25 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Somehow I knew that would draw at least on M's troll out of the creek.
It’s called “snark”. You guys over at LL are better at it than I am so, by now, you should recognize it when you see it.
(P.S. – xlnt slip there at “backwars”.)
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
Thanks for the post. It often appears as if some fans have a blind love for Mr. Reagins and his moves.
There is no getting around the cold hard stats. Another bad signing.
Huh? No one has said they love this move.
Very few have said they even like this move. Most people seem to be saying that it’s not a terrible move, just a questionable one. Hardly seems like blind love to me.
might sound silly
but on MLBnetwork.
They were talking about how pitchers in Cold weather have a harder time getting to Season ready shape if they throw heavy stuff , and how at the end of the year when it starts to get cold and ‘dead arms’ start to pop up it puts a strain on them again.
They never mentioned Rodney by name but I thought of it right away. It could not severely, but somewhat skew his numbers a little high.
Also there is a lot to be said for playing on a winner Vs. a ;looser like Detroit.. Players on winning teams always seem to have something extra in the tank because they are always competing. Tough to think that in KC or PITT the pitchers and hitters are still giving it everything in August and they are out of it.
Lets give Rodney a chance.
Hell even Spier gave us something in short bursts at the beginning. all we really need from this guy is 1 good year the other year is irrelevant.
If we get rid of Fuentes and have to eat Rodneys contract next year and suffer through a average MLB reliever we have made it through worse
My prediction as of 12-11-2009- Wood .265 avg, 20 HRs 70 RBIs and an above average glove at 3b
by Sinatrasratpack on Jan 11, 2010 1:52 PM PST reply actions
Great post
I don’t have a problem signing Rodney, but at $11 million? People are fond of throwing out the phrase “It’s not my money.” And that’s true. But Arte’s pockets aren’t bottomless, which means the Angels budget has a certain limit. And as Turk said elsewhere in this thread, that’s $11 million that would have been much better spent on draft pick bonuses, international free agents, or undervalued commodities.
Reagin’s has shown no ability to recognize the current market and take advantage of the inefficiencies. Currently, good defense can be had on the cheap, but Reagins has let Figgins walk, and signed a bunch of guys to play OF who might be mistaken for statues out there. Then he overpays for the easiest position to replace internally – reliever.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
by Gorbachav5 on Jan 11, 2010 5:13 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
What outfielders are you referring to?
Abreu is a bit of a negative, but overall we have a solid outfield.
Rivera has a good arm, but doesn’t have great range. And Reagins paid for Torii’s highlight reel catches, not his actual defensive performance. Most advanced metrics show that Torii’s range isn’t nearly as good as people think. I love watching him make those catches, but there are others that he doesn’t get to that a guy like Gutierrez or Cameron would get to.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
While I don't disagree with some of your assessment,
the stats seem to suggest that both Torii Hunter and Juan Rivera are above average, if not superior, defensive outfielders.
Torii Hunter was #4 in the majors last year in Range Factor among the 63 qualifying outfielders, while leading the bigs in Fielding % among OFs with a RF/9 over 2.3. No one’s claiming he’s the best CF ever, but he’s much, much more than just a highlight reel guy (see Derek Jeter).
And to address your statement about Juan Rivera’s range, he posted a Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 Games (UZR/150) of 16.6. Which basically means he saved 16.6 runs for us last year. That was good for 2nd among all qualifying left fielders (GA was dead last).
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
Yeah that guy hunter is a bum and Rivera throws like a girl
I mean, Hunter makes GA look energetic.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 11, 2010 6:47 PM PST up reply actions
Fun fact: Donnelly came out of nowhere, again, to post a 0.6 WAR season with the Marlins in 2009
Pretty sure Brendan is juicing, so this fun fact, not so fun. He was juicing when he was an Angel, then got named in the Mitchell report, then his performance dropped off. Now that he is on the uptick, i’m betting he went back to the juice.
"F*** it let's pitch!"
The ude throws hard and has a nasty changeup. With Butcher at his side I believe he can elevate his current status of not very good. At the end of the year we could possibly have the best bullpen in baseball. To our benefit let’s all hope he does turn things around and become studly!
First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.
To our benefit let’s all hope he does turn things around and become studly!
Well said.
I miss Hudler already.
by Teixeira Who? on Jan 12, 2010 2:28 AM PST up reply actions
Now I am pissed.
Valverde to the Tigers for $14MM. Nice work Reagins. Link
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
eh, it would have cost a first round pick
and he’s just a reliever anyway.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 14, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
I'd rather spend $3MM more and a draft pick and actually sign a good reliever
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
I agree, It is strange they gave rodney so much for such average performance
But what makes a “ninja” seems to be an irrational fear that all the good players are going snub you and get signed by other teams before he gets anything done. So rather than spend time trying to make a deal work for the players he really wants, while at the same time keeping negotiations warm with second and third choice guys, he overpays for the second or third choice guys to make sure he gets someone.
Maybe someone needs to explain to Del Ninja that he can negotiate with more than one player at a time.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 14, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
oh yeah, my earlier comment was supposed to be sarcastic
I think we saw what struggling relievers can do to a team last year. With a solid bullpen we could have won 100 games and probably made the world series.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 14, 2010 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
Guys, maybe I'm dense........
I’ve posted this same info in another thread somewhere on HH:
I look at some of FRodney’s stats, and I see some of what I suspect Reagins & Co. see.
Look at FR’s performance on two days rest compared to other #s of days.
Look at his performance with RISP.
Look at his Clutch Stats; Are these not good?
How about his performance against Boston, Toronto, Seattle, Texas, and Oakland. If these stats don’t mean anything, why do we keep them?
I personally think it’s really good that we’ve got 4 or five closers now (Don’t forget Bulger). The thought of not necessarily having to depend on Fuentes is somehow soothing. ……….And the fact that Rodney’s use just might keep Fuentes from being forced on us in 2011 encourages me.
Maybe I’m a “glass half full” kind of guy, but right now, I’m satisfied with Fernando Rodney.
So, it's $5.5m for a reliever who we can only use once a series?
According the the two days rest numbers compared to zero or one day, he should never be used unless he’s had two days off. That means if he pitches in game 1, then he’d be ready to use again by game 4, then game 7, then game 10…
I don’t know how these numbers help make the case that Rodney’s going to be a useful addition. If Rodney is going to be used on less than two days rest, those numbers indicate that any inherited runners are likely to score. Let’s hope we rarely see him mid-inning with runners on base.
On the other hand, maybe we’re only planning on winning 1 out every 3 games. If that’s the case, then I guess this all makes sense.
Compared with our designated closer
Brian Fuentes, I think this is situation where the two can compliment each other nicely.

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