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In my humble opinion, BA remains the gold standard in prospect analysis due to their access to scouts and network of writers, so this is my favorite list of the offseason. Here's their top ten (you need a subscription to read the scouting reports):

1. Hank Conger, c
2. Peter Bourjos, of
3. Mike Trout, of
4. Trevor Reckling, lhp
5. Garrett Richards, rhp
6. Fabio Martinez, rhp
7. Randal Grichuk, of
8. Tyler Skaggs, lhp
9. Jordan Walden, rhp
10. Trevor Bell, rhp

about 2 years ago Avatar_tiny rghan 61 comments 3 recs  | 

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I like how high they are on Conger

Resonates nicely with my own world view.

by rghan on Jan 18, 2010 8:42 AM PST reply actions  

a scout friend of mine

who actually scouted Hank raved about his bat and makeup..

Overall I like the list. Personally, I wouldn’t have Bell in the Top 10, but BA errors more towards the how close are they to reaching their potential (rather than how high their potetnial is) than a lot of other top prospect lists. Because of that I can see why Peter Bourjos is so high since he’s done well enough in AA at a young enough age, but I’d take Trout over him in a second.

by MH252525 on Jan 18, 2010 8:54 AM PST up reply actions  

I think Bourjos is that high due to defense alone

He projects to 2 wins in a WAR model with his glove alone, and continues to make the adjustments necessary for his bat to play in the majors. Trout’s D is good so far, but counting on him to reach Bourjos’ level still requires a lot of projection, and the bat would have to be very good to make up the difference if he falls short.

I agree that Trout’s upside is substantially higher, and I have him higher because of it. But Bourjos’ steady improvement make it a difficult question to answer.

by rghan on Jan 18, 2010 9:04 AM PST up reply actions  

Do you like him enough to trade Napoli at this point?

I am starting to lean in that direction. I like Naps but I think we are better off saving the money and opening up another roster spot.

Touch'em all

by THE VOICE on Jan 18, 2010 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes. Let's trade Napoli.

And immediately replace him with an injury-prone 22-year-old. Who has no experience above AA. By gods, that’s brilliant.

by GrichManPoorMan on Jan 18, 2010 2:37 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

That was not my point.

Conger is not ready but a Mathis / Budde – Mathis / Wilson combination would work fine for a year or so. Trading Napoli now could net a signicant piece for the future. I am not sugggesting we give him away.

Touch'em all

by THE VOICE on Jan 18, 2010 10:11 PM PST up reply actions  

No, it wouldn't.

Maybe a Napoli/Budde or Napoli/Wilson, but not Mathis. Any catching situation that relies on Mathis as the centerpiece at this point is foolhardy at best and a fail waiting to happen at worst. And no, epic postseason performance does not equal sudden regular season offensive awesomeness and consistency.

I’ll take the guy with the best catcher’s HR ratio ever any day.

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Jan 19, 2010 11:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I really like your screen name.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Jan 20, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

"Saving the money."

Napoli was worth 3.2 Wins Above Replacement and $14.4 mil in market value last season, and only made $2 mil.

Matsui had an above-average year given his age and still wasn’t as valuable as Napoli.

Naps delivers more value above salary than almost any other player on the team, and provides excellent insurance should Matsui’s knees fall apart at the plate. Frankly, the more sensible thing would’ve been to let Napoli DH in 2010 to begin with, and spend the Matsui dollars on another starting pitcher.

by Turks Teeth on Jan 18, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I think management prefers proven age-ed guys over younger....

up-and-coming guys for a myriad of reasons.

First, insurance.

Second, cover-your-ass insurance.

Third, in-case-everything-falls-apart insurance.

Fourth, the younger up-and-coming guy will eventually have his day.

Fifth, insurance.

by wumbug on Jan 18, 2010 8:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Some think he may command as much as $5M in arb. this year

That sounds high to me. The Halos appear deep at the position and Naps does not appear long for the defensive side of the equation. Trading from strength may net something in return.

Touch'em all

by THE VOICE on Jan 18, 2010 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Uh

and put a black hole in our line up all year? No thanks.

by dmhead on Jan 18, 2010 11:13 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Exactly.

Rec’d!

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Jan 19, 2010 11:01 PM PST up reply actions  

How about having both......

The way it is now, we get Napoli and Matsui in the line up at the same time. We also have the added insurance of another big bat in case of injury. Finally, if we do find a pitcher available in a trade, Napoli makes good trade bait while Matsui keeps us solid at DH. Signing Matsui was a win all the way around.

If a pessimist is always right, is he a realist?
-Unknown

by Arch_Angel7 on Jan 18, 2010 11:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I think that Conger/Napoli rotating

the DH and Catcher position would be ideal for 2011 and beyond. It would provide excellent offensive value from a position that is usually below-average offensively and they would be able to get in their 500+ ABs.

The only problem is that Jeff Mathis’ continuing presence on the roster means it will never happen and his crazy playoff performance probably convinced Soth that he belongs out there.

by blochead on Jan 18, 2010 11:59 PM PST up reply actions  

What about the time

he sent Jered Weaver back down to the minors when he was setting rookie pitching records so that his lame older brother could come up and continue to suck.

Or the time he continued to play Steve Finley with better options available.

by MH252525 on Jan 19, 2010 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

You assume

that Sosh was somehow tricked into doing something he normally would not do, because he knows better. But prevailing wisdom would lead us to believe that Sosh was doing precisely what he considers to be the best way forward: defer to the formula, and defer to the incumbent and/or the experienced, over the long term despite overwhelming evidence of the negative, short term, impact.

We have a great skipper, but not a perfect one. This is one of his warts.

Sosh did not get fooled. Sosh, in these cases, was merely foolish. Shit happens.

Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.

by Stirrups on Jan 19, 2010 10:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Also, Gomez as best infield arm?

Flies against previous scouting reports, but that nullifies the possibility that he’d have to move off of short.

by rghan on Jan 18, 2010 8:51 AM PST reply actions  

Doesn't this (plus Budde) mean that we need to trade a catcher or two??

Check out these games:

Multiplayer Baseball: http://www.mmobaseball.com/createaccount.aspx?ref=9687

Multiplayer Football: http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=16986650

by matthiasstephan on Jan 18, 2010 8:51 AM PST reply actions  

*Regardless* of this, yes

Budde and Wilson are out of options.

by mattwelch on Jan 18, 2010 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I wonder why Bell is so far down.....

is it because he’s real close to being on the Big league team permanent?

Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 18, 2010 9:52 AM PST reply actions  

BA and most scouts agree

That his ceiling isn’t very high, though he’s very close to reaching it. His fastball/cutter/slider/change combo doesn’t include a swing-and-miss pitch, and none grade higher than average, so he will always have to pitch to contact.

by rghan on Jan 18, 2010 9:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Projected lineup courtesy of BA
Catcher Mike Napoli
First Base Kendry Morales
Second Base Howie Kendrick
Third Base Brandon Wood
Shortstop Erick Aybar
Left Field Torii Hunter
Center Field Peter Bourjos
Right Field Mike Trout
DH Hank Conger
No. 1 Starter Jered Weaver
No. 2 Starter Scott Kazmir
No. 3 Starter Joe Saunders
No. 4 Starter Ervin Santana
No. 5 Starter Trevor Reckling
Closer Kevin Jepsen

Rebuild much? Obviously they don’t watch close enough to teams to realize that this lineup is not. Even. Fucking. Close.
 

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Jan 18, 2010 9:56 AM PST reply actions  

i'd flip Naps and Conger

but that seems just fine to me!

Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34

by howiestheman on Jan 18, 2010 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

That's one weird thing

Hunter’s deal is only through 2012.

The other is the presumption that Weaver and Kazmir would still be in Anaheim. The latter is only a possibility, the former is highly unlikely.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Jan 18, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions  

I guess they're thinking he'd re-sign for another two years to teach the youngin's as they come up

And shift over to LF as his range and speed declines with age.

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Jan 18, 2010 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

The shift to LF I get

I just wonder how much BA thinks he’ll have in the tank at 39, and why he’d be preferable/likely to any other OF in MLB for LF in 2014.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Jan 18, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly, George.

I doubt Torii is playing for a contender at 39 – and I really doubt it is in Anaheim.

RIP Nick...

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Jan 18, 2010 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Not very sexy

Personally, I’d like to see Carl Crawford in the CF slot come 2011. Bourjos seems Juan Pierre-ish.

by GrichManPoorMan on Jan 18, 2010 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I remember reading the CC in CF scenario years ago.

CCrawford doesn’t want it, doesn’t like it, ain’t gonna do it. He likes Left Field.

by wumbug on Jan 18, 2010 2:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Point taken

We’ll keep him in left after we sign him next year… let Tori play out his contract, and find a CF caretaker until Trout is ready.

by GrichManPoorMan on Jan 18, 2010 3:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Steve Finley might be available then

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Jan 18, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Get him on the phone now!

Failing that, I hear Edgardo Alfonzo might want to learn center…

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Jan 19, 2010 6:58 PM PST up reply actions  

If Hunter is still around, maybe he'll be DH/4th Outfielder

He is the face of the Franchise

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Jan 20, 2010 3:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Really?

I’d expect Torii to be retired at that age or playing as a strict DH somewhere.

I’d expect us to have Juan Rivera or someone similar as a DH and 4th or 5th outfielder by 2014. Rivera will be about 36 or so by then. That’s about the age where old power hitters should hang up the glove and just sit back and mash with what they have left.

"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function

by Commander_Nate on Jan 18, 2010 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

So in this projected 2014 line up,

They predict Weaver stays and we extend Saunders?

That outfield looks pretty awesome. Hunter will be getting a little older and a little slower, but could probably still hang in left. Trout and Bourjos are two young dudes. I like to see this line up in 2014.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Jan 20, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I love how four guys from last years draft

are already in the top 10. Shows how good last year was but also how poorly the years before were, also the lack of picks. But this year should be another good year. Can’t wait for Trout Bourjous and Grichuck to be roaming our outfield.

First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.

by angelskid2210 on Jan 18, 2010 11:37 AM PST reply actions  

yeah that sounds like an awesome young outfield........

Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 18, 2010 11:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Fantastic for the pitchers

Crappy for the position players. Look at the Halos history of bringing up our young AAA talent in recent years. See Brandon Wood!

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Jan 18, 2010 12:15 PM PST reply actions  

alright....

before I get lit up, with Aybar, Izturis, Morales……tell me, with our current roster, outside of Wood this season, tell me when we will see any of our position prospects given a shot??

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Jan 18, 2010 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Depends...

Assuming no trades, there won’t be much room for guys from the minors. About the only opening is for a reserve infielder to replace Quinlan. My guess is that it’s Sandoval’s to lose.

If GMJ gets granted his wish to be traded, then there’d be an opening for Pettit or Evans in the OF (Bourjos may have a chance as well). The trade of a catcher might open a permanent spot for Wilson or Budde.

That’s about it, barring a large number of injuries, or some real spring training surprises.

by sothball on Jan 18, 2010 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

When they play well enough to deserve one?

Sorry for the sarcasm, but now that Wood’s finally out of jail, and S-Rod’s gone, is there anyone you could really described as “blocked” anymore? There will be more than enough demand if and when the OF prospects are ever ready. And Conger will likely make someone expendable by the time he shows up, but a whole lot could go wrong between now and then.

by mattwelch on Jan 18, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

More seriously, Garret Richard's #5 rank intrigues me.

He must have some really killer stuff to rank that high given his limited time at Orem last year.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jan 18, 2010 1:06 PM PST reply actions  

Let's not give up on Walden

He’s 6’5".

He’s got a plus fastball with two good secondary pitches, and projects as a front-of-the-rotation starter.

We drafted him out of a CC in Texas.

He’s quite ugly.

Remind you of anyone?

by GrichManPoorMan on Jan 18, 2010 2:55 PM PST reply actions  

Umm...Kermit the frog??

I heard he was from Texas….or was it John Lackey?

First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.

by angelskid2210 on Jan 18, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

"...projects as a front-of-the-rotation starter."

That may have been the case two years ago, but increasingly, due to health and command issues, he’s being seen as more of back-end bullpen type.

That’s likely why BA didn’t project him into the rotation.

by Turks Teeth on Jan 18, 2010 4:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Tomorrow on the Drive @ 4:15

Manager of Baseball Operations Tory Hernandez to talk Angels prospects.

by Throwbacks on Jan 18, 2010 3:51 PM PST reply actions  

Incredibly Intriguing of BA

Hank Conger at number 1, normally that spot is reserved for Reckling, but given Conger’s potential as an everyday player, I understand it, as Reckling’s only going to see PT every 5 days and will probably be a back end starter.

I’m not sure people realize the sort of potential both Richards and Martinez have. Both have what most scouts call “it”. It’s just a matter of duplicating it now. Both can be front end of the rotation arms. Richards is strong and can pound the strike zone with mid-90’s heat. Martinez is more like Ervin, he’s not strong but he can whip it in there with more movement in the mid 90’s.

I only found 2 mistakes.

1. Richards have the best curveball. This is false. If he can get it over consistently then yes he does. But he hasn’t figured that out yet. That title belongs to Reckling’s curve. It’s very Zito-esque.

2. They sort of lost hope on Jordan Walden. He has everything Richards has and is ahead of the age curve. If Walden can stay healthy he can be a mid/front of the rotation starter. Throwing him into the group of Trevor Bell (who may not ever be a rotation worthy pitcher) and Skaggs (whom we know very little about) is not fair to Walden.

by Halowood on Jan 18, 2010 4:10 PM PST reply actions  

IMO, Walden is rightly devalued.

And not just by Baseball America. He showed less-than-excellent command at both Rancho and Arkansas, and he only pitched 60 innings last season due to injury. He’s had both forearm and elbow injuries, and his mechanics — if they are not modified — suggest they’re likely to recur. His fastball has a nice peak in the mid-90s, but he’s had trouble keeping it consistently in the 90s. He’ll repeat AA this season at age 22, which is completely age-appropriate. He’s looking more and more like a set-up man, and set-up men are not pitchers you give top slots to.

Too early to say on Reckling v Richards on the curve. Righties don’t seem to have too much trouble with Trevor’s curve, and if Richards can maintain the fastball velocity we saw last season, it’ll be a more valuable pitch overall for him.

by Turks Teeth on Jan 18, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh, I must have been mistaken

I didn’t know Walden was going to be repeating AA, I thought he’d make the jump to AAA as well. Though I do disagree with your assessment of Walden. Erly in the season before his injuries he was throwing extremely well, like Reckling he was only lacking control.

Being 21/22 in AA is age appropriate and keep in mind Richards was 21 last year playing rookie ball against a bunch of kids right out of high school. I can’t deny that he has “stuff” an that adjustments were made since college, but his college numbers really weren’t that great. He’ll be 22 in A ball next year.

I saw Reckling’s curve buckle the knees of both the California League and and the Midwest and he was only 19/20 years old. And granted while I’ve only seen video of Richards curveball, it still doesn’t seem to have the effect of Reckling’s with a mid 90’s heater. I’m very open to changing my mind on this though if I saw more evidence.

BTW, has anyone noticed Will Smith, Tyler Chatwood and Ryan Chaffee missing from this list? They were popular names a year ago. Smith projects well and Chatwood really grew as a pitcher last year. I wonder what the future holds for them.

by Halowood on Jan 18, 2010 7:09 PM PST reply actions  

FWIW

BA in 2007 had this as our projected 2010 line-up

C- Conger
1B – Kotchman
2B – Kendrick
3B – Wood
SS- Aybar
LF – Rivera
CF – GMJ
RF – Vlad
DH – Kendry
Starters – Adenhart, Weaver, Lackey, Santana, Young-Il Jung
Releiver – Frankie

And in 2006 had this as our projected 2009 last year line-up

C- Mathis
1B – Kotchman
2B – Kendrick
3B – Wood
SS- Aybar
LF – D-Mac
CF – Chone
RF – Vlad
DH – Kendry
Starters – Santana, Lackey, Bart, Weaver, Adenhart,
Reliever – Frankie

Have to give the credit to the organization, what they’ve put out there has been better than projected in 2009 (except at RP).

I’d opinionate the same will be said about 2010 (accounting for the tragedy and injuries slowing down Conger’s development and hastening Vlad’s decline).

In 2006, you could see the lack of depth in the systems outfield, and called our IF prospects “elite” (make it so, Brandon). Also in 2006, Saunders is listed as the #9 prospect (top LH pitcher) and Napoli was 11th. Both made their debut in MLB that year (Napoli HR’d in his first AB). Morales, and Weaver also made their debuts, and Kotch (mono) and DMac (oblique) both went down.

by Rex Fregosi on Jan 25, 2010 1:06 PM PST reply actions  

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