FanPost

Bill James vs. CHONE: Angels Starting Pitchers

Bill Baer's article, which was so beautifully deconstructed by WiHaloFan, included some 2010  CHONE projections. However, these projections were not the same as the projections featured in the Fangraphs iPhone app. So, I looked a little closer at the app's projections, and realized that the projections were from Bill James, instead of CHONE. Some projections were completely different. So I've decided to take a look at both projections for the Angels pitchers. (Look for the Hitters version soon, and then the Relief Pitchers) At the end of the season, I'll take a look at who was closer.

So here's how this will work...

Each player will have 4 different stat lines. In this order, they will be                                                                                           2009 season

CHONE

BJH (Bill James Handbook)

Career (Average)

 

Let's start off with Jered Weaver.

ERA

  IP

  BB

   K

  K/9

BB/9

AVG

WHIP

BABIP

FIP

2009

3.75

211

66

174

7.42

2.82

.248

1.24

.288

4.04

CHONE

4.10

180

54

145

7.25

2.70

.261

1.29

.302

4.04

BJH

3.67

218

64

185

7.64

2.64

.255

1.26

.301

3.84

CAREER

3.73

168

50

137

7.32

2.65

.253

1.25

.295

3.98

Key Stats:
ERA: WTF, CHONE?
K (K/9): CHONE goes down...


According to CHONE:
Weave gets a little worse than last year

According to Bill James:
Weave gets a little better than last year

 


Next up, Scott Kazmir.

ERA

  IP

  BB

   K

  K/9

BB/9

AVG

WHIP

BABIP

FIP

2009

4.89

147.1

60

117

7.15

3.67

.264

1.42

.308

4.26

CHONE

4.23

166

65

149

8.08

3.52

.256

1.36

.306

4.15

BJH

3.90

173

76

176

9.16

3.95

.247

1.36

.313

3.84

CAREER

3.83

145

65

150

9.31

4.05

.247

1.38

.316

3.83

 


Key Stats:
ERA: Either way, it won't be as bad as last year...
BB: Always a problem for Kashmir, I'm hoping for CHONE's version...
K: Also a key stat, CHONE stuck with the career average, James took a chance

According to CHONE:
Kazmir's first full year with the Halos will be a solid one, even with  that ERA...

According to Bill James:
A better, above average year for Kazmir.

 

Saundo.

ERA

  IP

  BB

   K

  K/9

BB/9

AVG

WHIP

BABIP

FIP

2009

4.60

186

64

101

4.89

3.10

.278

1.43

.290

5.17

CHONE

4.57

181

56

102

5.07

2.78

.281

1.41

.300

4.72

BJH

4.15

178

56

110

5.56

2.81

.270

1.36

.296

4.41

CAREER

4.22

140.2

45

81

5.17

2.90

.271

1.37

.292

4.63

Key Stats:
ERA: James goes quite a bit lower, below average. CHONE lowers as well.
AVG: One of the few stats disagreed upon
FIP: A repeat of ERA. Interesting.

According to CHONE:
A similar year, a tad better

According to Bill James:
A similar year, better than CHONE's.

 

Piñeiro:

ERA

IP BB K K/9 BB/9 AVG WHIP BABIP FIP

2009

3.49 214 27 105 4.42 1.14 .265 1.14 .293 3.27

CHONE

4.37 169 35 86 4.58 1.86 .290 1.36 .312 4.17
BJH

4.17 215 53 118 5.18 2.33 .279 1.35 .305 4.22
CAREER

4.39 159 45 99 5.59 2.56 .273 1.34 .301 4.23

Key Stats:
In. every. single. category. Piñeiro. gets. worse.

According to CHONE:
Piñeiro's 2009 was a fluke.

According to Bill James:
Piñerio's 2009 was a fluke. (gulp)

It's Ervin Santana's turn...

                         ERA       IP        BB       K        K/9      BB/9    AVG    WHIP    BABIP    FIP
2009                5.03     139.2    47     107     6.89     3.03     .288     1.47      .320      5.02
CHONE           4.53     173       52     143     7.44     2.65     .271     1.34      .311      4.36
BJH                  4.23     183       57     152     7.48     2.80     .266     1.33      .309      4.24
CAREER         4.52     169       54     137     7.31     2.86     .263     1.32      .303      4.33

Key Stats:
ERA: Phew! It'll be better
K: Good to see these go up
FIP: Gets better

According to CHONE:
Ervin improves quite a bit over his mediocre at best '09 season

According to Bill James:
Better than CHONE's prediction.

Final Score
CHONE: 3-2 Improvements to relapses
Bill James: 4-1 improvements to relapses, and their improvements were greater than CHONE's!

Just for fun, let's look at the worst possible combined season possible.

              ERA     IP        BB      K      K/9    BB/9   AVG   WHIP  BABIP   FIP
2010    4.36    173.2    61    125    6.5    3.17    .276    1.35     .304    4.30

And now the best.

             ERA      IP     BB      K      K/9   BB/9    AVG   WHIP  BABIP  FIP
2010    4.02    194    52    148    6.9    2.41    .263    1.33    .303    4.10

 

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Apologies for the last three graphs having no pretty grids. My computer didn't feel like properly importing tables.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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