Michael Kohn: Angels Top Prospect #14
14) Mike Kohn, 6/26/86 - RHRP, A-Ball, High A
6 Wins, 1 Loss, 9 Saves. 65.2 IP, 1.64 ERA, 103 SO/26 BB. +22 runs saved.
Ranking in a Nutshell: It's funny - many prospect analysts anointed Kohn with "sleeper" status entering 2009, he performed at or above the most lofty of expectations, yet he is now lost in the shuffle, overshadowed by the Halos' high profile/high ceiling rookie-ball arms. He should get more notice, because his numbers are ridiculous: he fanned 14 batters per nine innings across two levels in 2009, held the opposition to a meager .156 batting average against, and racked up the tenth highest wins above replacement total in the Angels system, a difficult thing to do as a reliever. His stuff is good - a 90-94 mph fastball, a slurvey breaking ball that can rate as a plus pitch, and a change-up - but it's the short arm stroke in his pitching motion that really sets him apart. Tom Kotchman described his fastball as "a sneaky 94," because minor league hitters had such difficulty catching up with the unconventional delivery.
Track Record: Kohn played first base at the College of Charleston, but after going undrafted in 2007 decided to try his luck on the mound. His arm strength attracted attention immediately, but he suffered a shoulder injury in 2008 that undermined his draft stock and allowed him fall to the Angels in the 13th round. His health rebounded that spring, and he's been on the fast track ever since, posting a 17 K/9 in rookie ball and 14 K/9 across A-ball and High A. When hitters do make contact, they're rarely able to center up the ball, resulting in an incredible 27% infield fly rate on balls batted into play. So far in his pro career he's allowed less than a base runner per inning, less than one hit every two innings, and just two homeruns, period. After posting a very good 2.9 BB/9 in the Midwest League, he slipped to 4.4 BB/9 in the California League, so we'll have to keep an eye on his control heading into 2010.
Win-the-Lottery-Ceiling: Kohn's delivery is unique, so I can't think of a comp that adequately captures him physically. However, he's as dependent on his funky delivery as Brian Fuentes, and throws about as hard, so in terms of career arc they might be similar. Kohn is showing much better numbers at any earlier stage in his career, however, so perhaps his peak will be higher and he'll sustain it for a longer period of time.
Scouting Report: (beneath the jump)
From the batters perspective, the ball goes entirely unseen in Kohn's delivery until the moment of release. There's no elbow extension behind his back, no split second to track the ball as Kohn brings his arm into position to throw. Instead, Kohn keeps his right elbow bent so that the ball never strays much from behind his ear, even as he cocks his arm and begins the forward motion of his delivery. He then whips the ball around and releases from a three quarters arm slot. Hitters rarely seem to catch up with the pitch, resulting, according to Tom Kotchman, in "a lot of bad swings."
Check out the link here to get a look at Kohn, but be aware that you have to watch Tyler Chatwood face off against Brewer's prospect Brett Lawrie three times first. Hat tip to Alex Eisenburg for the link.
Baseball America isn't impressed with Kohn's ability to fool minor league hitters, ranking him just the 30th best prospect in the organization, likely because they feel big-leaguers will eat his "sneaky" stuff alive. I disagree: he has consistently converted outs against some very good minor league hitters; moreover, his present numbers are so good that they could undergo significant regression against more advanced competition and he would still be highly effective. His stuff could even take anotherl step forward, because having pitched regularly for only two years now, he's still pretty young from a developmental standpoint. I like him a lot, and hope to see him claim a role in the Angels' pen around mid-2011.
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Just in case I forget later in the countdown...
…can I just say – these reports are excellent. I’ve enjoyed this series as much as anything I’ve read this off-season. Ta very much – keep up the good work.
I see red people
And wow
You’re right on him hiding the ball, particularly since you’re able to contrast his delivery versus Chatwoods.
Arkansas?
Where does Kohn figure to start the season?
I wonder what he looks like from the perspective of a left-handed batter.
i think he will start
off in Arkansas and if he does i think we might see him in Anaheim by the end of the year, kind of like Jepsen in 2008
R.I.P. Nick Adenhart #34
Agreed - he's likely headed to AA. No hurry to add him to the 40 man, so sadly we may not see him in Sept
Left handers hit a touch better (.168 BA vs .138 BA), but K’d even more than the righties, so my assumption is that the deception works on both. No one is seeing the ball off of him.
I picked Kohn as a reliever to watch out of rookie ball based purely on his end of season numbers
and gut instincts. So I’m pretty happy with him making it all the way to fourteen. This guy’s numbers are ridiculous, but we’ll have to see if he can hold up through the higher levels.
~Till the Halo burns out...
kohn is a guy to watch but what is really appealing and is something rghan...
pointed out that i’m sure not a lot of us knew is that kohn has only been pitching for a couple of years. his best is probably yet to come, reminds of a converted college catcher who saved a few games for the halos by the name of troy percival.
I'm really excited about the last 2 prospects
Ramirez and Kohn, I feel will both be GOOD major league players. I don’t think we’ll see Kohn rise through our ranks as quickly because we have EXCELLENT relievers in our minor leagues.
Rich Thompson should be in the big leagues right now. Rafael Rodriguez has seen success at the highest minor league levels and is also ready for the bigs. The Angels are stacked in the bullpen for the next couple of years and may even look to use Walden, Palmer, Bell or Reckling in the pen as well. So don’t look for Kohn to be fast-tracked or anything, regardless of performance.
Carlos Ramirez is going to be an excellent major league catcher. All this bad body talk is non-sense. I don’t care what his body looks like, the fact is he’s an above average defensive catcher and may be even more offensively gifted than Hank Conger who is one of the top 3 minor league catchers. I think Carlos will eventually be a .300 25 HR .375 OBP type of hitter in the bigs.































