The story below, which I found on MLBTR, pretty much sums it up. Players would be the ones to know when they're about to sign, as Matt Holliday proved just today, so I don't see any reason to doubt that he is nearing a decision.
The story basically states that the Marlins' $13+ million offer and hope of luring Chapman with the large Cuban community in South Florida is not going to be enough. A source in the article believes the Blue Jays and Angels are the favorites and that the deal will be around $21 million. How credible is this source? Who knows.
Say what you will about the "edge" the Angels may or may not have on him with Kendry Morales. I firmly believe that if it really is between the Angels and Blue Jays, then we've pretty much got him locked up.
$21 million isn't a bad investment for someone who could be the next Randy Johnson if things work out best. Consider that the money will likely be spread out over several years, with a signing bonus in the first year and a salary that starts low and rises as the contract continues based on his performance. It could possibly be structured like Kendry's deal which, from my understanding, was basically two different deals depending on if he was in the minors or majors.
UPDATE 2:00 PM 1/6/10
The Yankees, Mets, and Astros are out. This bodes well for us if we really are still in it.