Rich Thompson Up For Good: Top Angels Prospect Performances, #26-#30

by rghan on Oct 18, 2010 1:10 PM PDT in Minor Leagues

Remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2010, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

30) Clayton Fuller, 6/17/87 - CF, High A and AA

.238/.328/.378 with 10 HR and 17 SB. +2 bat, +5 glove, 1.86 WAR.

It was a bizarre season for Fuller: the twenty-three year old was severely overmatched in AA, managing just .168/.241/.240 in 237 PA's through the first half. He then responded to a June demotion by exploding in the Cal League (like I thought he would in '09), raking to the tune of .331/.432/.565 with 6 HR's and 12 SB's in 183 PA's before getting hurt in August. Note that while his bat was worth +17 runs in Rancho Cucamonga, he cost the Arkansas Travs something like -15 runs in the spring. He has one more year to prove himself in AA before the Halos either add him to the 40 man roster or risk losing him.

29) Rich Thompson, 7/1/84 - RHRP, AAA and Majors

1 Win, 1 Loss, 2 saves. 29.2 IP, 17 hits, 0.61 ERA, 30 K/10 BB. +15 runs saved, 1.92 WAR

I'm glad Thompson finally stuck in the majors, because I've been rooting for him for years. Apparently his cutter is getting much of the credit, but his mid 90's fastball and hard-diving curveball have both been very good for some time. In fact, his curve had the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches (a well-above average 15.4%). I think he continues to stick in 2011.

28) Suammy Baez, 9/28/88 - RHSP, Single A, Arizona Rookie League

4 wins, 4 losses . 83.2 IP, 86 hits, 2.69 ERA, 81 K/25 BB. +10 runs saved, 2.02 WAR

He turned twenty-two and gave up over a hit an inning in rookie ball. He'll likely be a usable organizational guy, which is good news for the Halos since they are entering 2011 short on pitching depth in the lower minors.

27) Casey Haerther, 10/5/87 - 1B, Single A

.307/.352/.432 with 8 HR. +6 bat, +8 glove, 2.07 WAR

After playing third base with the Pioneers in his pro debut, Haerther shifted to first base with the Kernels, the position he played back in the day with UCLA. TotalZone has him playing excellent defense in addition to hitting for good average. On the other hand, his power stroke never really showed up, disappointing for a college first baseman selected in the fifth round. He's going to have to have to explode in the Cal League in order to hop Gabe Jacobo on the depth chart.

26) Chris Scholl, 10/27/87 - RHRP, High A

2 wins, 1 loss. 68.2 IP, 64 hits, 3.41 ERA, 82 K/20 BB. +12 runs saved, 2.13 WAR

For the second straight year, Scholl had an outstanding second half. The Halos haven't been aggressive promoting him, allowing him instead to spend a full season at each level, and so far he's rewarding their patience with a steadily increasing K-rate (up to 10.7 per nine in 2010). I liked his stuff better than Eddie McKiernan's when I saw them pitch last April, but the Halos must have their reasons for not pushing Scholl into a higher profile role.

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Comments

Interesting.

It appears you are going strictly by WAR across all levels of the minors, correct? Why isn’t it “weighted” as a prospect list to those (like Thompson) that had their success at the upper levels of the minors, or even an MLB level? It seems to me they have more ability and therefore a higher prospect ranking if the WAR is attained at higher levels of competition.

Do you think that would have added too much complexity to a prospect list?

by sothball on Oct 18, 2010 2:07 PM PDT reply actions

Yup - just WAR

No weights. No inclusion of major league stats (though I was very tempted to include Bourjos’ this year).

I used an age vs level adjustment with another metric a few years ago, which in theory was great because it gave the most credit to the youngest guys in the oldest leagues, but I couldn’t come up with a system that I liked. This is simple, it contextualizes each guy’s performance in their league and ball park, and is comprehensible to folks with just a passing familiarity with sabermetrics.

by rghan on Oct 18, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions

It works. Thanks for the response.

by sothball on Oct 19, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions

m0ar Ashley Thompson please.

"Oh man, moral victories and pulling confidence from losses, that's crap" -Marcus Stroud

by norcaliangelsfan on Oct 18, 2010 3:13 PM PDT reply actions

Rich Thompson

I’m a big fan, he performed very well out of the pen this yr.

by The Blake Griffin Era on Oct 19, 2010 9:40 AM PDT reply actions

WAR

where can I find the rating for players in the Pioneer and Midwest League?

by calfan7 on Oct 19, 2010 8:53 PM PDT reply actions

You can't

At least, in a way that correlates with the numbers above. Fangraphs gives offensive runs above average for minor leaguers, but they have their own proprietary formula (I use a more generic one freely available on line) and they also incorporate certain park effects that I think are too exaggerated. As far as I know, no one else then converts that info into runs and wins above replacement, because how could you define a “replacement player” in the minor leagues? All sorts of philosophical issues there. I ignore those because for me, WAR in the minors is an effective ranking tool, making a statement about a player’s contributions relative to his peers, and I simply don’t care that it’s a compromised statement of absolute value.

Sean Smith’s TZ numbers are available at baseball reference, and hopefully minorleaguesplits when it returns to action. The beauty here is that he, being an Angels’ fan, calculates the Angels’ prospects’ numbers first (I think), which gives us a sneak peak at them before the data is made generally available.

by rghan on Oct 20, 2010 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions