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Hank Conger's First Cup of Coffee: Top Angels Prospect Performances, #16-#20

Who's worried about this guy's power?

20) Angel Castillo, 6/7/89 - OF, High A

.259/.325/.454 with 21 HR and 12 SB.  +2 bat, +12 glove, 2.49 WAR

Castillo is another intriguing outfielder in the Halos system, profiling more in the Witherspoon mold than in the Heid/Long mold. He has very good tools, beginning with above average raw power that doesn't yet translate consistently to in-game situations. When I saw the Quakes take batting practice in April, Castillo put on the best show, yanking some bombs to left, though he didn't appear to have anywhere near the same explosiveness going the other way. He has a strong throwing arm and above average speed, which he uses to be a legitimate threat on the bases and cover plenty of ground in right field.  His TotalZone numbers have been very good throughout his pro career (he's at +42 now over 5 stateside seasons), though the scouting reports have never been glowing, generally labeling him raw. Personally, I think the numbers speak for themselves at this point - he's a quality defender. Castillo progressed a little in making contact against righties, but those numbers are still not what they need to be (.252/.311/.407 and a 27% K-rate). Given his youth and tools, he retains some breakout potential, but must cope with an Arkansas park that is very tough on power hitters.  

19) Hank Conger, 1/29/88 - C, AAA, majors

.300/.385/.463 with 11 HR. +10 bat, -1 glove, 2.53 WAR

Conger doesn't receive the hype that he should nationally because he has yet to post a breakout season, but he may already be the best option for the Halos behind the plate as a 22 year old. His defense has improved significantly over the past two years, and while his catch-and-throw footwork still has a ways to go, his other receiving skills are MLB ready.  His caught stealing, error, and passed ball totals point to him being around average behind the dish in AAA (though the +glove number above is not TotalZone). He hasn't hit for a ton of power in the upper minors, but I think there are a some good reasons for that: (1) he's very young relative to the competition; (2) he's focusing on his defensive game, perhaps to the point of cutting into batting practice; and (3) he seems to be experimenting with his own capabilities and figuring out what kind of hitter he is going to be. Non-power indicators of his offensive development are very positive - his K rate has crept downward in each of the last three seasons while his walk and line drive rates keep climbing - so he must be toying with his approach. I like comparing his uneven minor league career to Kendry Morales', who also drew glowing scouting reports that emphasized bat speed, and who experienced a similar power outage in the upper minors. While it seems like we've been waiting forever for Hank to breakout, he remains just 22, so has plenty of time to take off.

18) Carlos Ramirez, 3/19/88 - C, Single A

.226/.337/.381 with 9 HR. +0 bat, +10 glove, 2.57 WAR

Ramirez largely fell off the prospect map this season due to a putrid showing against right handed pitching (.173/.296/.257 with 2 HR's in 179 AB's), but he still put up enough defense and production against lefties  (.346/.433/.667 with 7 HR's) to rank highly on this list. What's most bizarre here is that Ramirez was known as a pretty good breaking ball hitter in college - ironically, what his detractors did have to say about him was that he had only "slider bat speed" - so it's unclear why righties had their way with him. Regardless, his defense will earn him more chances to figure things out: he allowed only 3 passed balls, maintained a .992 fielding percentage, and threw out 42% of advancing baserunners. The + glove number above is NOT TotalZone, but rather the estimate I put together looking at his previous scores, scouting reports, and peripheral numbers.

Star-divide

17) Gabriel Jacobo, 4/14/87 - 1B, High A

.296/.333/.492 with 22 HR's. +11 bat, +5 glove, 2.57 WAR

TotalZone liked but didn't love our minor league defensive player of the year, though the system did think he was worth +12 runs with the glove in 2009.  Given his track record and the good scouting reports, I think it's safe to say that Jacobo is an above average defensive first baseman who makes his fellow infielders look very good by consistently picking it in the dirt. He's a decent athlete with above average range and hands and could likely make the transition to the outfield if necessary. With the bat, he serves the same function as Garrett Anderson served in the Angels' lineup for all of those years: he hits fastballs hard somewhere, maybe not with elite power, but with enough dependability to be a major cog in a classic "get them on, move them over, knock them in" kind of lineup.  Eddie Bane recently told another Angels' message board that he believed Jacobo to have the best plate discipline in the system, which of course seems absurd looking at Jacobo's 24 BB and .333 OBP season; but the point underscores the difference between most of baseball's understanding of plate discipline and the Angels' working definition of the concept: wait for a fastball you can do something with, and square it up. Walks - and consequently, maximizing the number of baserunners - are not the ultimate goal; rather, scoring those baserunners that do get aboard by ripping fastballs for productive outs, singles, doubles, and the occasional homerun is, according to the Angels' philosophy, the most dependable way to push runs across. You can hate it or you can love it, but there it is - the Angels' way of doing things, and it goes well beyond Mickey Hatcher, who so often serves as a scapegoat for the system's shortcomings.  Jacobo fits into that system perfectly, and his 107 RBI total in just 133 games testifies to their being something to it all.

16) Tyson Auer, 10/25/85 - CF, High A, AA, AAA

.316/.371/.428 with 5 HR and 54 SB. +4 bat, +3 glove, 2.58 WAR

I love this guy - by now I hope everyone knows his story, because it's the kind of narrative that keeps me from dropping this baseball habit and devoting the most productive hours of my life to something a little more lucrative.  Auer attended the University of Southern Florida (Tom Kotchman territory) where he played competently, but never showed enough power to attract professional baseball's attention. He had his best amateur season as a junior, hitting .356/.406/.425 (with no HR's), but MLB teams showed no interest in the June draft. He again went undrafted following his senior season, so the Halos, likely at Tom Kotchman's urging, signed him as an undrafted minor league FA. In the two years since then, he has rocketed through system, improving his contact rate, power, and stolen base success rate against increasingly tough competition. He runs exceptionally well and plays a quality centerfield, so may break into the bigs at some point next year as a fourth outfielder. He's a little unlucky in that the Angels' organization has Pete Bourjos, a similar player but with much better tools, ahead of him; the more powerful Chris Pettit competing with him for the fourth outfielder job; and Mike Trout charging up behind everyone. Nevertheless, Auer has already come much further than anyone predicted, so I wouldn't bet against him finding a way to make that final leap to "The Show."  

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Auer

If, as you say, he is effectively boxed in by Bourjos, Pettit and Trout (coincidentally, the name the law firm which handled my divorce), then does Auer have enough of a reputation in MiLB to become decent trade bait, as part of a package for some key piece the team needs?

We all seem to have seller’s regret at trading Sean Rodriguez when he was boxed in by Wood and every other infielder on the majors roster, but unlike Wood, Bourjos seems like he will stick for his glove alone (and he has, of course, hit more HR than Wood in 2010 for that matter), Hunter is on the roster through 2012 and Trout feels like the heir apparent by then. If the team does sign a Crawford or Werth to fill the 3rd OF spot, doesn’t that make Auer a luxury as a spare part. sitting in Utah, waiting for some calamity?

"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason

by George Kaplan on Oct 24, 2010 7:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Auer needs to put up a very good AAA season before he garners national attention

I don’t think he has much, if any, perceived trade value at the moment because his bat projects as more fourth/fifth outfielder than a regular. On the Halos depth chart, he may be ahead of Pettit and Moore at the moment, but is behind Willits and Rivera. Trout’s rapid accent and another FA outfielder would just further complicate that picture.

So yeah, he’s a Bee for the foreseeable future. If he keeps producing and the Angels run into a series of injuries, he could get his shot in the bigs and maybe carve out a supporting role over the long term, ala Reggie Willits.

by rghan on Oct 24, 2010 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Auer is what..25...Pettit is 26 years old

Sorry, but if they are not busting through AAA by now, they probably don’t have significant MLB upside.

Additionally, Pettit, Willits, Auer, Evans, Nick Gorneault, Moore, Rian Kiniry and to a lesser degree Bourjos are all pretty much the same players. No power, good defense (clearly Bourjos is “special” defensively), average to good OBP. Aside from Trout, there’s not a 4 or 5 tool star amongst them.

by mustard_man on Oct 24, 2010 8:15 AM PDT reply actions  

You're painting with a pretty broad brush

There are only three things all of those guys have in common: they are outfielders, they play for the Angels organization, and they don’t project to be Willie Mays.

Bourjos and to a lesser degree Moore both have a chance to be “five tool” MLB regulars. They flash average to above-average range, arms, hitting ability, speed, and yes, power. The big question is not their tools, but whether they’ll develop enough “skill” with plate discipline to tie it all together.

And we’re not talking about Auer and the rest of the older guys becoming stars. Rather, about whether they can be useful fourth or fifth outfielders. Willits and Rivera both had seasons where they proved just how valuable that kind of guy can be. Nelson Cruz was also lumped into that category for years before he busted out in his late 20’s.

by rghan on Oct 24, 2010 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Painting with a broad brush...really?

Age was not the entire point I was making, it was performance and results to the age. You use Nelson Cruz as an example, but did you compare his minor league stats to the players listed above?

Cruz would be a reasonable minor league comparison to the infamous Brandon Wood’s MiLB career stats. Here’s Cruz’s MiLB stats since 2005:

2005: .285 avg., 27 HRs, 81 RBIs, .385 OBP, .537 SLG
2006: .302 avg., 20 HRs, 73 RBIs, .378 OBP, .528 SLG
2007: .352 avg., 15 HRs, 45 RBIs, .428 OBP, .689 SLG *had 300+ MLB ABs
2008: .342 avg., 37 HRs, 100 RBIs, .430 OBP, .693 SLG

In 2009, Cruz was in the majors to stay. There were results from Cruz throughout his MiLB career performance that indicated he had the potential to be a proficient slugger at the MLB level.

Pettit’s MiLB offensive stats do not compare to Cruz’s.
Willits MiLB offensive stats do not compare to Cruz’s.
Bourjos MiLB offensive stats do not compare to Cruz’s. In fact, since 2005, Bourjos has hit a total of 44 HRs counting all his MiLB and MLB at bats. There no evidence that Bourjos has the ability to consistently hit for power at the MiLB or MLB level. He has not done it through their career to date.

Willits has value to the Halos based on the weakness of our LF starters. From a trade perspective, his value to most MLB teams is limited at best. If he’s the benchmark for our OF talent (except Trout) at the MiLB levels, I shudder at the thought.

Moore is the only player that has the potential based on the MiLB performance thus far to project power at the lower levels of the Halo farm. It will be interesting to see what he does in the thin air of SLC.

by mustard_man on Oct 24, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

It should be noted that Cruz was older than most when putting up those numbers at the minor league level

Cruz is already 30….the number he put up in AAA seem to coincide with his ceiling in terms of development. In his age vs. development, you could make the argument that Cruz was turning into that dreaded corner OF AAAA slugger which one is able to find in most systems. In that case, his trade value would have been based purely on team need at that point, making it no higher or lower than someone like Pettit or Moore.

I don’t doubt that Cruz clearly is the stronger power hitter and that he seems to have put things together now, but when he was bouncing around in the minors, it would be tough to say that you could have gotten a whole lot for Cruz in a trade either

by HaloFanInDC on Oct 24, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Broad brush = Willits/Pettit/Bourjos/Evans/Moore/Gorneault/Kiniry

“are all pretty much the same player.” If that’s not painting with a broad brush, I don’t know what is.

And I didn’t say that all of these guys could turn into Nelson Cruz, because if I did, I would be making the same type of generalization that (I thought) you were making. My point was simply that guys pegged as Quad A or fourth/fifth outfielder types early on, or who are just late bloomers, do on occasion turn into quality MLB players. Terry Evans certainly looked like he could have that future in his mid 20’s – about a year after Cruz began to put it all together – though he ultimately couldn’t hit for the same power. Cruz is actually a very good comp for Moore’s win the lottery type of outcome – they showed strikingly similar HR and K rates in the Midwest League at similar stages in their career, have a comparable tool set (though Cruz is bigger, more physical), and are both very dependent on high BABIP’s.

The other guys are in a different class. Willits did actually have some trade value following his very good 2006/2007 (age 26/27) seasons, and his plate discipline and speed continue to make him a good pinch hitter/pinch runner/defensive replacement/occasional leadoff hitter. If everything breaks just right for him, Auer could fill a similar role. Pettit is a different, but still potentially useful player as an average hitter/above average baserunner who could conceivably do well out of the number two slot in an MLB lineup. And remember, he was just 24 in his last full season, so it’s not like we know everything there is to know about his development arc.

Not sure why you brought up Kiniry or Gorneault, but they’re both very different but still organizational types.

by rghan on Oct 24, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I've had a bit of trouble placing Moore in my top prospect list

I’ve moved him around so many times between #8 and #17. I like his K/BB ratio in Arizona thus far, it shows he’s aware of what he needs to do to take his game to the next step. I also keep making the mistake of thinking Moore is much older than he really is. He’s still only 22 and as great as he was AA, I’m expecting even better numbers in AAA and there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to carve out a serious role in th majors by the time he’s 25.

I really like Chris Pettit, if it weren’t for his injury riddled 2008 season, his minor league BA would be around .330 or .340 which is Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales territory. He’s solid defensively, is an aggressive base runner and I think could hit for a good average in the majors. Because of Willits unwillingness to steal bases, I have no problem seeing Pettit take over the 4th OF role from him.

Tyson Auer, I fin it unfortunate that he more than likely doesn’t have a role for the Angels because of our newly developed OF depth. I find it extremely likely we sign a FA OF this offseason. I hope Auer has a great season in AAA and I hope we can use him for his trade value and I hope he carves out a role somewhere.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 24, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Join the club

Moore = high risk, (pretty) high reward. It all comes down to the tolerance you have for the possibility that his contact/power skills don’t take that next step forward. I’m pretty risk averse by nature, so have him at #15

by rghan on Oct 24, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Though I imagine that many of the pitchers you place in your top ten...

…carry high risk as well. And I suspect Trumbo is much higher on the list than Moore — which just seems a little off to me. Moore has four tools, and Trumbo has one (power), and I’d put Mr. Anaheim’s chance at hitting for average in the MLB at about 15%.

Consider that in 2009, Trumbo hit .291/.333/.452 in Arkansas at 23, and Moore hit .303/.358/.463 in the same park at 22. Moore is lefthanded, plays three positions with at least average defense, has speed and power.

Yet Trumbo is a top ten prospect because of righthanded power numbers at age 24 in the PCL. If you really are risk-adverse, and Moore is at #15, Trumbo should be nowhere near the top ten.

by Turks Teeth on Oct 24, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess we'll find out.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 24, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Moore relies on a .380+ BABIP to stand out

I can’t get over that, which is the reason for ranking the lumbering first baseman just a little bit higher. Moore strikes out 1/4 of the time without elite walk or HR rates. Now, I’m no sabermetric nut touting BABIP as wholly driven by luck – it’s a skill some guys, usually power/speed combos like Nelson Cruz, Matt Kemp, and David Wright, can maintain most years, and Moore fits that profile – but projecting him to maintain even a .340 BABIP (Nelson Cruz this year) in the majors requires a giant leap of faith. Assuming his other skills remain stable (a huge assumption given his lack of plate discipline), that .340 BABIP puts Moore on the bubble for a corner outfielder with a line of .277/.335/.442. Regress the BABIP to the MLB average, and Moore’s suddenly hitting a putrid .249/.309/.414.

Now, Moore hit 20+ HR’s in the Midwest League as a twenty-one year old, so that kind of power could return, which would help (though he also K’d in 32% of his PA’s that year). He could continue to reduce his K rate — maybe even get it to 20% or a hair below – that would also help. He could also bump his walk rate another couple of points. Align all of those stars with a .340 BABIP, and you get a slash line of .299/.362/.464, which would be very good from a guy who’s a good baserunner, if not great base stealer, and a moderate defensive asset in a corner. Putting up those kind of slash stats consistently would make Moore a regular, but that’s an awful lot to count on.

If Moore is a role player, then it’s hard to see where he fits. His poor contact rate makes him an unreliable pinch hitter (though his left handedness helps). He’s likely an above average corner outfielder, though TotalZone didn’t like his work much this year (+0 in the corners, -0.2 in center). While good, he’s likely not a standout defensive replacement. He still has work to do stealing bases at a high percentage, so he’s not the ideal pinch runner. He’s average to above average in all of those areas, but unlike Pete Bourjos, his non-batters’ box skills aren’t good enough to earn a long leash to figure out how to hit.

Trumbo doesn’t require as many assumptions to be useful. He’s much stronger than Moore, so the power should come a little more naturally for him. Hold that one assumption – that he has 25 HR potential or more – and you can regress his BABIP to the MLB average, keep his K’s at 20% (a rate that he’s bested several times before over full seasons) and his walks at 7% (he was at almost 10% this year), and you get a batting line of .278/.335/.443. All of the scouting reports emphasize his capacity for gargantuan pop (something that you can’t say about Moore), so the 25 HR mark does not require a huge leap of faith. If he manages the power, you can regress everything else (we improved everything else for Moore), and the batting line still makes him interesting.

Moore has a broader base of skills, but the one that really stands out, his BABIP, is just hard to depend on in the big leagues (look at Matt Kemp’s season this year). Trumbo needs his power to keep shining through to be useful, but that’s a skill that most observers are pretty confident that he can continue to develop. Personally, I think they’re very close in value – they’re within a couple of spots of each other on my list – but I’m just a little more confident Trumbo’s power than I am in Moore’s BABIP.

by rghan on Oct 25, 2010 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Trumbo's slugging % in the 25 HR projection I give above

should read .478, not .443. That gives him an OPS of .813 assuming the HR’s and moderate regression of his MILB BB and K rates, and an MLB average .300 BABIP.

by rghan on Oct 25, 2010 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bourjos is more than "special" defensively

By at least one statistical measure he played CF better last year than it has ever been played in the Major Leagues. This after putting up similar numbers in the minors, and doing that thing we watched him do with our own eyeballs. He’s a plus player when he hits .200; none of those other guys are worth much unless they hit .270.

by mattwelch on Oct 24, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I love Bourjos

serious man crush going on, and I’m not afraid to admit it

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by 2pintsofbooze on Oct 24, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm trying to stay skeptical on Bourjos, though it's hard. Guys like Bourjos and Trout just make me giddy.

As much power as Bourjos flashed, I don’t think we’ll see that much power from him across a full season. I do think he’ll show a greater propensity for stealing bases and hitting for average though. In 2011, I’m anticipating .270/.330 30 DB 10 triples 10 HR 40 SB.

As for everyone’s other man-crush Trout, I think he’ll struggle for a month or so in AA before adjusting and then getting scorching hot in the 2nd half. He’ll be promoted to SLC in August and tear AAA apart for a couple of months. Then we’ll see him in 2012.

I base these predictions off of nothing more than my own inexplicable feelings.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 24, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

I never really thought

I’d be so giddy about a guy purely for his defense, but Bourjos has done that to me. If he can better his OBP, I will be ecstatic. I was surprised by the power he showed, and if he’s able to maintain it I will consider it simply a bonus. Can’t wait for a full season of him.

excited about Conger too, as he was drafted out of my high school. I would love nothing more than for Conger to be the one in a time share with Napoli next season, instead of Mathis.

so excited for these young guys to make their mark on the team.

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by 2pintsofbooze on Oct 24, 2010 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's about time too if you ask me....

There was a gap between our last crop of useful players (Kendrick, Kotchman, Napoli, Aybar, Weaver, Saunders, Santana) and now. There have been helpful developments (Morales, Jepsen) but for he most part we’ve been going without a useful crop of prospects for almost 5 years now. This first group (Conger, Bourjos, Trumbo, Kohn, Walden) and the next group (Trout, Berg, Geltz, Reckling, Chatwood, Amarista, Jimenez) and the final foreseeable wave (Richards, Martinez, Segura, Grichuk, Cowart) should all hit the majors within the next 5 years and make this ball club deeper than it has ever been before.

What’s even more astounding is to think that since Kendrick and the rest of them came, in the last 5 years or so, we’ve managed next to nothing in terms of prospects outside of Morales. That would be like there being nothing after Conger and Bourjos. No Trout, Chatwood, Richards, Reckling, nothing. Perhaps that may have something to do with Bane being fired.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 24, 2010 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

yup

last season really should’ve been the breakout years for Morales AND Adenhart :(, and this one the breakout of Wood. tough times for the franchise.

the future looks bright though, even if it takes another season or 2 for all the talent to mature and come together.

protectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpick

by 2pintsofbooze on Oct 24, 2010 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not too excited about Auer

I’m looking at Tyson Auer’s stats and see a Reggie Willits clone. And Willits isn’t that good. A slap hitting outfielder who was 24 years old in A ball when the season started shouldn’t be considered any part of the future. His promotion to all the way to AAA looks more like they consider him a good organizational soldier than anything else.

by mj86 on Oct 24, 2010 5:43 PM PDT reply actions  

A little bit off topic, but Trumbo was a 3rd baseman, among other things, in high school yet never played there in the minors.

I’m guessing that means that the Angels never really thought he would stick at 3rd.

That’s kind of a shame since 3rd is a gigantic black hole right now.

by ~MMP~ on Oct 24, 2010 10:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Third Base is a difficult position to master in pro-ball.

Catcher, shortstop, centerfield and third base are the positions where you can’t hide a lack of skill. Coming out of high school it was either pitch or play first for Trumbo. Now that he’s something like 30 pounds lighter, he’s opened up RF and LF for himself.

This is why I think either Beltre or Callaspo are ideal fits for 3B. They can just hold the position down until:

A. Brandon Wood discovers how to hit major league pitching.
B. Luis Jimenez arrives in 2-3 years.
C Kaleb Cowart arrives in 4-5 years.

Obviously nothing is a sure thing, but these are the things we as minor league enthusiasts hope for.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 24, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Baird is a dark horse candidate here as well

He was streaky and injury ridden this year, his defense may never be plus, but he projects for more offensive upside than Jimenez.

by rghan on Oct 25, 2010 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Think so?

I thought Baird was behind the age curve, lacked the defensive prowess and offensive upside to play the hot corner. I’ve only watched him a couple times this season. I thought Lucho had more power.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 25, 2010 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Baird's bigger, stronger, more physical in general

He’s flashed Jimenez like hand eye coordination in college and the pioneer league but with better patience. If the tweaks that he’s made to his swing generate consistent power – and he had some very good streaks this year – without piling on the K’s, then he could be a legit offensive threat. Lucho has a lot of natural power too, but it’s not going to show consistently in games if he doesn’t do a better job choosing his moments.

Hitting left handed, Baird also reaps the rewards of the platoon split.

His defense is currently nowhere near Jimenez’ however, so there Lucho has the clear advantage.

by rghan on Oct 25, 2010 4:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

I guess I just don't see Baird sticking at 3B. I've watched your youtube videos of his 2 HR's a few times....

He absolutely crushed them, you could tell there was really no doubt about either of them. Beautiful swing and I remember he made hard connect when I watched him play this season. It just seems like Jimenez was always more of threat. He collected more doubles, just as many HR’s, he could steal bases and even though he was raw at 3B, he seemed quick, I saw him make an impressive diving stop to his left.

I saw so much separating the two, that I have Jimenez ranked 10 spots ahead of Baird. I think it was mostly because Jimenez was so impressive in rookie ball, skipped a year and was still able to put up impressive numbers in Rancho this season. There’s no right answer with these things, but if Baird projects so much higher than Jimenez, perhaps I should consider closing that gap between the two.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 25, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

I have Jimenez ahead too, but not by much

I’d say Baird has the edge in offensive projection. He’s bigger — 6’3", 190 — so has more room to add muscle. At 6’1", 205, Jimenez is probably physically maxed out.

Jimenez was pretty poor against righties – he hit only .250/.291/.423 against them. That kind of split in A-Ball is alarming, though it could just be a statistical blip.

Jimenez cleaned Baird’s clock on defense, however (TotalZone loved Lucho). That gap may never close.

My guess is Jimenez goes to Arkansas with the cohort he’s played with for years, and Baird stays back in Rancho to work on his D and build some more confidence. Both players could be moved around early in the season.

by rghan on Oct 25, 2010 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty much what I expected too. Though I wonder if that means Haerther's done with 3B.

He was rather uninspiring there in Cedar Rapids. I wonder what’s more likely, Lucho doubling his BB rate or Baird/Haerther becoming solid defensive 3B. I’m guessing the latter, as exciting as it is to watch Jimenez go all “Vladdy” on minor league pitching, I know it’s inevitably going to be his downfall.

"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor

by Halowood on Oct 25, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

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The Most Frightening Word in Baseball: "Rebuilding"
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By The Numbers: MLB Starting Pitchers
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Angel Games Boring?
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Terry Smith. You make the call.
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Are the Angels the anti-Rangers?
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A Serious top 5 of why Pujols is below the Mathis line.
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The Top Ten Reasons Albert Pujols is hitting below 200

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