Three Left-Field Trade Options
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 2:45 PM PST
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There's a near consensus among the fanbase, Angels media, and one very vocal rightfielder that Carl Crawford is the way to go. If that's a fait accompli, it's an expensive one to be certain. By many accounts, Crawford will net a Torii Hunter contract (18M per annum) with an extra year or two tacked on, making him the highest-paid player in MLB history who has never hit 20 HRs in a season.
Crawford is a player who has a career walk rate of 5.4% (well below the MLB avg of 8.5%) -- not a real leadoff option, however the hopeful want to convince themselves otherwise -- who is two seasons removed from an injury-plagued season where he had an OPS of .719. Yes, it was a finger injury -- but exactly the sort of injury that a hard-charging corner outfielder is likely to come up with a few times over a contract. We should expect it -- and other types of lower body injuries that a player who has played 8+ years on turf is likely to accumulate when over age thirty.
Okay, okay. You can tell that I'm not a big advocate for spending 100M+ on Carl Crawford. It seems like a move out of exaggerated desperation -- as if the Angels had an abject need for a speedy corner outfielder, when in fact the farm is riddled with them, and the team is much more depth-deprived at third base, in starting pitching, and in OBP-rich leadoff candidates.
So...what are some alternatives? We've all heard that Napoli is the Angels' top trade chip, and it's an iffy prospect that he'll be with the team in 2011. He's a fan favorite and a rare commodity (a catcher with power), so it behooves us to get something of value for him. At the same time, both the Red Sox and the Dodgers are in a position of need at catcher, and the fact that the Detroit Tigers just gobbled up Victor Martinez has slimmed the number of promising candidates on the market.
So let's focus on three alternatives that Boston and the Bluebloods may present.
Let's say the Angels' trade nucleus is Mike Napoli and Jeremy Moore. I don't mean to overhype Moore -- there's perhaps a 25% chance that he'll be something useful at the Major League level. He's still raw, but he's coming off a strong year in a tough pitcher's park in AA, which he followed up with an impressive performance in the Arizona Fall League. He's no direct replacement for the leftfielders he would supplant, but he might turn into something of value in a year or two, with coaching and experience. The guaranteed value is Napoli, who would be under club control for two years, and who is a 2.5 to 3 WAR player even given only 450 PAs a season.
Let's look at the two best free agent left-fielders on the market beside three left-fielders from Boston and LA. It's always hard to project future performance -- three-year splits and career averages may be no better than last year's outperformance in the end. I'm just going to go will Bill James' projections for next season. They can be a little optimistic at times, but at least they're fueled by significant aggregate data.
Carl Crawford (LHB) Age in 2011: 30 Likely cost: $17-19M, 6-7 yrs
James Projection: .300/.350/.453 93 runs / 14 HRs / 71 RBIs / 42 SBs (12 CS)
Jacoby Ellsbury (LHB) Age in 2011: 27 Cost: 1M in arbitration? (Arb. Eligible through 2013)
James Projection: .300/.355/.409 102 runs / 8 HRs / 58 RBIs / 59 SBs (14 CS)
Ryan Kalish (LHB) Age in 2011: 23 Cost: League minimum (under club control for five years)
James Projection: .271/.340/.452 94 runs / 20 HRs / 82 RBIs / 43 SBs (8 CS)
Matt Kemp (RHB) Age in 2011: 26 Cost: $6.95M in '11 + incentives (under club control through 2012)
James Projection: .280/.339/.484 98 runs / 27 HRs / 95 RBIs / 24 SBs (11 CS)
Jayson Werth (RHB) Age in 2011: 31 Likely cost: $14-17M, 4 yrs + option
James Projection: .275/.375/.493 98 runs / 28 HRs / 91 RBIs / 14 SB (4 CS)
The first thing to pop out at you is how much more value the trade alternatives deliver when the cost of Crawford and Werth are taken into account. The second is how much better Werth is projected to be over Crawford -- though there are many reasons to think that Werth is likely to break down more quickly than Crawford over the span of a long contract. Werth has also benefited to a degree from Citizens Bank Park (though not as much as one might think -- he actually delivered a higher OPS on the road two of the past four years).
To me, however, the big surprise is how good the projections think Ryan Kalish is going to be. Who is Ryan Kalish, you may ask? (Everyone probably knows the others on this list.) He was the Red Sox's #5 prospect coming into 2010, according to Baseball America, and is Boston's #2 prospect now, according to Red Sox Prospects. He's an interesting case, as he made his premier last season at the same time Peter Bourjos did.
Kalish is one year younger than Bourjos, both being born in late March. Both are known as speedy guys with plus defense, but Kalish has the higher power ceiling and more plate discipline. Bourjos, on the other hand, is likely to last in centerfield, where Kalish will move to one of the corners. He looked very good in left field last season for the Sox, but ranked only average in centerfield, though there were some glowing media reports, and one has to consider how difficult CF is to learn in Fenway. (Remember Reggie Willits anyone?) Let's look at the slash lines on Kalish and Bourjos for their first cups of coffee:
Bourjos (193 PAs, 51 games): .204/.237/.381 19 runs / 6 HRs / 19 RBIs / 10 SB (3 CS)
Kalish (179 PAs, 53 games): .252/.305/.405 26 runs / 4 HRs / 24 RBIs / 10 SB (1 CS)
It does provide a little perspective. Bourjos' defense is majestic, but Kalish looks more like he's ready to hit now. As a LF in limited play, his defense was very solid (+10.2 UZR/150), but it was 12 games, so who's telling? But the minor league reports indicate his defense is very solid at the corners. The Red Sox -- with Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron and Kalish in the stables -- have the luxury of slow-walking Kalish and giving him some more seasoning in AAA, but he's ready now for a team willing to give him the ABs.
So would Napoli and Moore be enough to secure one of Ellsbury or Kalish? Hard to tell. Both are big with the fans. Ellsbury is a legitimate injury risk, and there's media scuttlebutt about disaffection between him and the front office due to mis-diagnosis of his injuries by team physicians. The fact that the Sox have both players ready to go makes it more likely that they trade one of the two, and perhaps look for Crawford and Werth in free agency. I'm less bullish on the Napoli/Moore package getting it done for Kemp -- but there are other packages that could be built to snare that fish.
I'll leave the plausibility of attaining any of these guys for Haloheads to hash out in the following thread, but I wanted to throw some alternatives out there to throw some more light on the Crawford gamble. I think there's more than one way to fill leftfield in Angels Stadium.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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hey, i'd be all for ellsbury.
package a naps for jacoby trade and i’d be more on-board with signing beltre and more or less being done with big movies.
R.I.P. Nick Adenhart - Always an Angel
Reminder: Ellsbury = Boras
That means that Ellsbury might well be gone after 2013 when he hits free agency.
I know that’s a long time from now, but in another sense, it isn’t that far away (three full seasons). Consider what the team would be giving up for three seasons of Ellsbury, especially in light of his more recent spate of injury trouble.
Nota bene: I am not a Boras hater, but it is worth pointing out Ellsbury’s representation since the relationship between Boras and the Angel front office isn’t the best, and since Boras does advise his clients not to sign contracts which take them past the end of their arb years.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
It's a minor quibble.
Napoli is only under club control for two years, so it’s a strangle complaint that we would only get three years from Ellsbury. Assume he would be gone in 2014.
FWIW, I prefer both Kemp and Kalish to Ellsbury, but he has his positives. If not for his injury in 2010, he’d be an untouchable right now. But that injury puts a serious question mark on his chest.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 3:51 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
s/strangle/strange
Though I’ll have to pocket “strangle complaint” for another context.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 3:54 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Besides...
Trout will, provided his progression goes even fairly well, be ready in the corner outfield spots by 2013, by which time we’ll have gone through multiple free agent winters and seen new prospects emerge.
He travels fastest who travels alone.
Ellsbury would be as likely to resign with the Angels as Mike Napoli....
You think Napo-Smash would come back to Anaheim just so freakin Mensa Mike can bench him for half the year? F naw. I’m fully in favor of Napoli for Ellsbury.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
my buddy who works in the FO
said just a few weeks back that he saw Boras there, in the office. so perhaps the relationship between him and the FO isn’t as bad as the media and fans make it out to be.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
I've wondered if an attempt at moderating the relationship with Boras
had anything to do with Eddy Bane’s departure.
Maybe he was re-negotiating his box seats?
I can remember only two deals between Arte and Boras, and they both involved pitchers named Weaver. The last time the two had any discussions significant enough to reach the press, it ended with a public reprisal, which is just unheard of for the Angels’ front office. Then again, business is business, so who really knows?
I doubt it
my buddy said he was with Reagins, and I highly doubt Reagins gets involved with suite sales.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
or perhaps
Boras was there to deal with his suite and he simply stopped by to let Reagins know about the ass raping he’s planning on giving to Tony at WTY’s arbitration hearing.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
I do not like Ellsbury
If we have to sell high on Napoli, I would prefer a player who is not made of glass. Kalish sounds interesting …
Kemp is my guy out of that list
Angels could trade Napoli to the Dodgers, slide him between 1B and Catcher and have Loney play the OF if need be, even if that weakens their defense, it helps put some power at 1B. Loney played OF when he was working his way into their lineup a few years back.
I’m pretty sure the Dodgers want to get rid of Kemp for attitude reasons, but I doubt Mike Scioscia would put up with that kind of shit on the Halos.
I like the idea of Crawford on the Angels, but I wouldn’t throw the kind of money he wants.
I also don’t see the Sox trading Kalish, he’s got a high ceiling and is under contract for awhile, which would command plenty from our team.
#34, never forget.
If he can't play OF...
Morales can play a corner (LF). He was going to play RF if Teixeira had been re-signed.
very true
lets just make sure his foot is alright before we make him run down flyballs instead of step on a base. much more wear and tear involved in the OF.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 28, 2010 10:02 PM PST up reply actions
Let's put this to bed, please
Kendry is playing first base for the rest of his career. Yes, he was ticketed for left had we signed Teixeira, but a full year of good D at first and a broken leg later, that ship has sailed. He’s not moving across to third and he’s not taking him bum foot into left. Fuhgettaboutit.
by dmhead on Nov 29, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
It is just that simple. He is developing into a 1B, if not of Teixeira’s defensive quality, then certainly high up in the next stratum down. The last thing the Angels need to do is get inside Morales’ head by moving him to (fill in the blank: 3B, LF, RF, etc). Let him stay comfortable at 1B (and grow defensively) and play loose at the plate to keep his offensive sharp.
Getting him back in the lineup necessarily makes our team better. The goal is to maximize his offense, which won’t happen if he is simultaneously learning a new position (yes, I know he played 3B with Cuba and that was a million years ago and he wasn’t very good at it then, either).
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Nov 29, 2010 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
No one's brought up Josh Willingham yet
His bat is nearly in the same class as Werth and Bay, but no one knows it because he’s never been able to stay healthy for a full season. Still, he’s been an automatic 2.0-3.0 WAR player every year for five straight years in spite of missing time. I think he’ll make a nice acquisition for someone, and with only one season left before he reaches free agency, the asking price won’t be as high as Mike Napoli + friends.
Would Washington want a power hitting catcher?
I guess they have a new hole in 1B and Ivan Rod isn’t exactly an offensive force anymore. I could see it happening, but Willingham does have injury problems.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
Since just one person took you up on this --
My question with Willingham is how much of an upgrade does he offer over Juan Rivera? I see he’s a LHB and the walk rate is double that of Rivera (though so is the K-rate — but Juan has always been good at minimizing strikeouts). But they project to hit for roughly the same average and power next season.
I’ll freely admit that I only saw three or four Nats games last year, so I haven’t watched him much in the field, but his defensive stats look a little below average and he isn’t especially speedy — he doesn’t look like a top-of-the-order presence, which is what the Halos need more than a LF replacement per se.
Rivera had a shit year in 2010, but on the off-chance that the Angels keep him for 2011, I would expect some regression to his career norms.
For the life of me,
Why are we (as fans) so intent on trading Napoli? Especially if we don’t get something great in return? I know, Sosh won’t play him enough, he’s one of the few tradeable Angels that has return value, and we have an abundance of catchers. But still, Nap is a guy that can play multiple positions on the field and can be effective in the batting order. He is a commodity worth keeping. Instead of trading him, the manager out to find a way to play him efficiently.
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
by angelslogic on Nov 23, 2010 4:12 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you, but it is painfully clear that if Papa Sosh hasn't found a way to play him properly already, then he never will.
Naps is a gonner.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
I've never been among the trade-Napoli-now crowd.
But the facts seem pretty clear. Scioscia undervalues Naps, he’s on the block, and he’s a free agent in two years.
Given that, I’m part of the don’t-break-my-heart-and-leave-me-bitter-when-he’s-gone crowd. Don’t confuse realism with enthusiasm.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 4:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Trading Mike Napoli
I have my fingers crossed that Kendry Morales will come back 100%, but there is no guarentee. Kotchman was hitting .327 when he got beaned at 2nd base by Russell Martin and even Mathis was hitting in the 320’s when he got hurt last year. Sometimes people get healed but DON’T COME BACK.
I think we need to keep both Mike and Mark Trumbo at least until we see how Kendry is doing. Then use one of them as a trade chip come July if necessary.
BTW, I am not sold on Carl Crawford – especially at that cost.
Ryan Kalish? Are f'n kidding me?
His career minor league BA is .284. He never hit more than 18 HR in a season and never stole more than 25 bases. Yet some bass-ackwards mathematical formula says he’s going to hit 20 HR’s and steal 43 bases next season and you gobble that garbage up like it’s cool.
Bourjos has a higher career BA, more SB, has shown as much power as Kalish and is the most gifted defensive OF in baseball. Kalish is going to be a 4th OF, just like the rest of the Red Sox OF prospects. To me, this is not comparison, Bourjos is better and will be better in the future.
Crawford – too expensive
Beltre – aging and way too expensive
Werth – too expensive and numbers are inflated playing in Philly, surrounded by Howard, Utely, Rollins, Victorino…
Kalish – 4th OF without the skill set or minor league success as our own minor leaguers.
Kemp – Unavailable.
Ellsbury – Probably unavailable.
There’s no good choice here, and no matter how much you dolly it up, no return in a Mike Napoli trade will put us over the top. All we can do is pick the least of evils. If Ellsbury’s available, it’s him. If not, it’s Crawford.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
by Halowood on Nov 23, 2010 4:43 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Come back to me in two years to talk about Kalish.
Your ideas about player development are too simplistic, and Kalish didn’t come up in the Cal League and PCL. He’s coming of age right now. Trout isn’t going to show real power for a couple years either.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 5:02 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
You're right about one thing. Trout won't show power for a couple years.
Trout’s real value lies in his ability to get on base and make this happen. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s young and a great defender.
As far as my view on Kalish goes, I can’t think of any better way to put this so I’m just gonna come out and say it, I’m right and that little math equation predictor idiocy is wrong. How’s that for simplistic? He may not have had the luxury of the Cal League or PCL, but those leagues would have literally no bearing on his ability to steal a base, something he hasn’t really done in the minors. Sure Kalish will steal bases in the majors, just like Howie Kendrick steals bases. The only way Kalish hits 20 HR’s is if he plays 160 games and a season and a minimum of 100 of those in Fenway and Yankee Stadium. The only way Kalish hits .270 over a full year is if he actually becomes a different hitter. There’s no nomral drop in BA between minors and majors, it’s different for everyone, but generally a player doesn’t hit for as high of an average in the majors as he did in the minors. By Kalish dropping only 10 points, you’re basically saying there’s no difference between playing in the IL and playing in the majors. Here’s a non-mathematical projection for Kalish: .245 15 HR 20 SB. Hooray for Kalish.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Halowood
between you ranting about Callaspo to the point of lunacy, now coupled with this
I can’t think of any better way to put this so I’m just gonna come out and say it, I’m right and that little math equation predictor idiocy is wrong
you’re slippin dude
Spring Training is about 3 months away, hang in there.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 5:19 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I didn't post any special mathematical formula...
…when I placed his and Bourjos MLB stats side by side. They had almost identical samples, and Kalish bested Bourjos in almost every category, with an OPS differential of nearly 90 pts. No projection — just objective performance with counting stats — and Kalish is a full year younger than Bourjos.
You complain that Kalish hasn’t hit more than 18 HRs in the minors yet — but Bourjos has never hit more than 13. In fact, the first time he cracked double digits was this season in Salt Lake. His career OPS, heavily weighted to extreme hitters parks like Orem, Rancho and Salt Lake, is .799. The younger Kalish, inhabiting more neutral and pitcher-oriented parks, has an OPS of .810, with much of that coming from OBP (career .372 compared to Bourjos at .346). Kalish’s walk-to-strikeout ratio (at 0.66) is simply worlds apart from that of Bourjos (at 0.36). If I’m going to look at any one metric to tell me how likely a positional prospect is likely to succeed, that’s where I begin.
At age 21, Bourjos had an OBP/SLG of .326/.444 — Kalish was .364/.457 at the same age. At age 22, Bourjos had an OBP/SLG of .354/.423, and Kalish delivered .382/.502 at the same age. Kalish outperformed him decisively — by increasing margins per age and level — in more difficult parks. By 100+ OPS pts at age 22.
On steals? Last year, Kalish stole 25 bases in 343 PAs in AA-AAA and got caught twice. Meanwhile Bourjos stole 27 bases in 455 PAs and got caught five times. Kalish stole more bases per plate appearance than Bourjos.
There’s simply no objective evidence that Bourjos is the better hitter. Kalish outperformed him with the bat in his first cup of coffee quite clearly. (He more than doubled his walk rate too, btw.)
The idea that Kalish will be a .245 hitter when he already hit .252 in his first 179 PAs is a bizarre bet. Not sure why you’re so down on Kalish, but I assume it’s a lark based on insufficient research or the drunkenness you frequently cite to explain your more rash commentary.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs
How the hell do you explain his lack of SB in other levels of the minors?
Or how do you explain all of Bourjos’ SB? I seem to remember Peter stole 50 one year. You’ve completely left out defense, you’ve completely left out overall speed in general as a tool. Kalish has a bit more power of course his OPS will remain higher. Overall, Kalish doesn’t do one specific thing good or bad, he’s middle of the road. Congrats for finding an obscure method for making an average OF look fantastic via predictions. Here’s a prediction, Brandon Wood will hit 50 HR’s next year because he was clearly so awesome in A ball and AA and AAA. That idiotic statement has just as much of a chance at happening as Kalish literally outperforming Matt Kemp from 2010. I know you never said he would but look at the numbers, 20 HR 42 SB, solid OBP…. Get real.
I’ll keep this as simple as possible so I can keep up, because apparently I’m the drunken one or the one with insufficient research ability. I’m right and your predictive stats are wrong. After this season, you’ll come up with another excuse “oh he got hurt” “but his periphs were great” “he wasn’t given a chance”. Blah blah freakin blah. Seriously if Kalish was that good and that ready, the Red Sox would have zero interest in bringing in Crawford or Werth.
If Kalish is going to steal 42 bags then Bourjos is going to steal 174.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
This is juvenile
You’re upset with us for calling out your poor apprehension of some very basic numerical arguments, and now you want to start a food fight instead of continue with rational debate. Since I have no emotional stakes left to fall back on, I’d rather quit this thread for the time being.
by Suboptimal on Nov 23, 2010 7:32 PM PST up reply actions 5 recs
"After this season, you’ll come up with another excuse"
I very much you looking forward to providing even one example of Turks Teeth ever doing that. Or conversely, for you to stop acting like such an asshole.
by mattwelch on Nov 23, 2010 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The conventional 3 way tag team Turks Teeth, Matt Welch and Subop. 3 posters, one opinion. Bravo.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Actually, Turks Teeth and I have clashed pretty epically here
We have fundamentally different philosophies about assembling baseball teams, for example (with my take being a lot closer to yours, of all things). But you’re too intoxicated on your own gas to notice the world around you.
It’s possible — heck, maybe even more fun! — to disagree respectively, and/or adhere to a basic level of intellectual honesty a bit higher than “I know you are so what am I.”
Or you can just continue being a dick. And watch the “tag team” of your narcissistic fantasies swell into the dozens.
I don't buy it. Maybe you guys did a while ago but all I see here is a bunch of grown men stroken eachother's ego
And agreeing in unison. Yeah that’s cool I’m being a dick I get that, but what I don’t get is how you three guys seem to have let this statistical bullshit warp you into actually believing things like Adrian Beltre’s a sound investment coming off a contract year demanding over 15 million dollars annually and 4 years at age 32. Or that Ryan Kalish, a kid who’s not a bad prospect is all of a sudden going to sprout a cape and turn into freakin superman his 21 year old rookie season for no other reason than something called a James Projection. Apparently I’m not intelligent enough to convince you yahoos in words that you’re completely wrong, but SOMEONE here has to call you guys on this garbage. Consider this me pulling the “bullshit card”.
If I’m wrong, fine you guys win and I’ll be open and willing to admit my mistakes and take the heat without excuses. But when I’m right, I just want to make sure someone, even if it’s not me, reminds you guys that you weren’t thinking straight last offseason and calls you on it.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
And perhaps just as importantly, I hope I don't hear any lame ass excuses out of you guys
I can just envision it.
Turks Teeth: Betre’s not as good beecause pitchers won’t pitch the same pitches to him. I think I’ll make up a real fancy post explaining how I was right, but in reality I was actually wrong.
Subop: And Ryan Kalish never got a fair chance from Terry Francona. If he had played this many games in this lineup in this situation he’s be as good as Barry Bonds in 2002.
mattwelch: HERE HERE! I totally agree, we weren’t wrong it was all situational.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
[hands jammed over ears] I hate it when Mommy and Daddy fight!
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Nov 24, 2010 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
You're like the red-headed step-child here on HH.
All of your arguments and predictions are based on “what Halowood thinks,” and they fall apart when other, more educated and experienced posters (e.g. mattwelch, Turk’s Teeth, etc) present actual factually based rebuttals.
I think everybody here contributes something to this site in one way or another, but I’m getting kinda sick of you trying to undercut everybody who thinks differently from you. Why don’t you just go spend more time pretending to have super-human predicting power over on LAAinsider? I’m sure the 4 people that read it appreciate your bullshit, go get your ego stroked over there..
Faith Focus Finish
by b0rd3rline on Nov 23, 2010 11:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
LAAInsider?
Where we can read all about how mathis is going to put it all together and callaspo is just waiting to turn into a better version of beltre. Napoli is superior to adam dunn and kazmir is set to return to cy young form.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 24, 2010 8:31 AM PST up reply actions
are you saying Halowood is a ginger
and therefore has no soul?
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 24, 2010 9:07 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
hahaha
I knew there may be some collateral damage from my comment, but I was more asking than telling.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 24, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
Hey I read and have posted on Los Angeles Angels Insider
We’re not all douche bags.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at First2Third.net
You lost me
after you said “something called a James Projection.” If you’re not aware of how important Bill James is to Baseball and it’s statistical analysis, you really should read up.
Having said that, you probably end up being right about Kalish. Not because your opinion is fundamentally right, (it isn’t) but because of the astronomically long odds anyone ‘sprouts a cape’ and turns into a once-in-a-generation player.
Lamest poster of all-time.
by ineptituderunsamok on Nov 27, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
unrec'd
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm...I should have posted my last response here...
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 23, 2010 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think I paper over my mistakes.
I’ll happily admit win I’m wrong. I suggested Harden and Duchscherer were fine one-year gambles last offseason, in a high risk-high reward sort of way. And both were busts. Those were calculated risks with no long-term detriment, but I still called them wrong.
Meanwhile, I hated the Rodney, Kazmir, and Callaspo deals early on, and was a serious Wood-skeptic as well as a skeptic of Aybar at leadoff. All that panned out.
I didn’t like Pineiro for two years due to likelihood of injury and unlikelihood that he would repeat 2009. He didn’t repeat, and he was injured for almost a third of the season, but the signing was such a wash that my bet with Sam Miller in the off-season was a draw — and Pineiro may yet overperform his contract over the two years.
I don’t have much to hide. On balance, my predictions have been more right than wrong. Statistics aren’t everything — I verify with observation where I can. But I prefer data-driven arguments to seat-of-the-pants ones unless it’s Friday night, the Angels are losing, and I’m full of vermouth and vicodin. But that’s rare enough these days.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 11:56 PM PST up reply actions
Duchscherer actually pitched well before he got injured
Whereas Harden tanked when he was given the starts.
So I’ll give you a miss on Harden and a partial on Duch.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
didn't Kalish
have the best start to his career over any other player in the history of baseball?
grandslam on the first pitch of his first at-bat. kid’s a winner
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
Didn't Daniel Nava hit a grand slam in his first AB as a BoSux this season? Not the best career indicator.
Come to think of it, Naps hit a bomb in Detroit in his first AB didn’t he?
I might have wrote myself off of that argument.
Still I’m with you on Kalish, he passes the eye test. Whatever that’s good for.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 5:13 PM PST up reply actions
was that who it was?
I thought it was kalish. did both do that?
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
They both did.
I was there at Fenway when Kalish hit his. Made a one-day cross country turnaround trip to see the Halos get massacred in Boston. Outcome sucked, but I’m so glad I went.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
All this kid is right now is potential
Keeping Napoli and signing Crawford we have guaranteed results. Even if we overpay for it, it is a better risk to take.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
I feel that the risk is greater to hamstring a team's payroll for several years.
Everything is a risk. If we hadn’t have signed GMJ, what kind of position would we be in today?
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 5:24 PM PST up reply actions
You're defining risk and value too narrowly.
What can the Angels do with $18M a year for six or seven years?
A lot more than Crawford can do for this team.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 23, 2010 6:27 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
But not as much as Kalish can do, because he's so great. He's going to hit 20 HR and steal 40 bases in his 21 year old rookie season.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
by Halowood on Nov 23, 2010 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The guy is in the prime of his career
He is a perennial All Star. He is gonna start a slow decline in the end of the contract for sure but he’ll be worth signing to get us back to the playoffs and hopefully the World Series. He provides more value than Torii Hunter does and nobody here complains about how much that contract hurts us.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
Yes, like when we didn't sign Tex and saved 20 million annually.
Then, put the 20 million the Angels saved and signed such FA hits like Fuentes, Abreu, Rivera. Let’s save again and sign Plan B and C types of players.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2010 8:52 PM PST up reply actions
Lets sign two 8-7 guys!
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
by ryanfea on Nov 23, 2010 8:53 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Bourjos played in a circus league, dude
Do you realize how vastly different the offensive contexts are in the PCL and the International League? The IL is a seriously tough league for hitters, completely opposite of the PCL. You can’t read the numbers straight across.
Bourjos’s .310 / .364 / .500 performance at AAA Salt Lake in 2010 translates to .240 / .280 / .362 in the majors, which is even more optimistic than what he did in reality: .204 / .237 / .381.
Meanwhile, Kalish hit .294 / .356 / .476 in the International League, good enough for a .262 / .319 / .414 equivalent in the majors, also not far out of the line with his actual .252 / .305 / .405 performance.
Adjusting for age makes Kalish looks enough better: he’s worth .297 / .366 / .476 at peak translation, where Bourjos is down at .273 / .319 / .414. They’re just not the same hitters when you compare them on an equal basis.
Look, I know you love our boys. We’ve all watched them grow up and we want them to succeed. But not everyone gets to be a Rhodes Scholar in the end, no matter what shade of rose your glasses happen to be.
by Suboptimal on Nov 23, 2010 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
The only people that see their prospects in a more rosy color than an Angels fan are Red Sox fans.
I realize they are two different leagues (PCL and IL), but I also realize there’s no way you can compare the leagues, and translation of numbers is not an exact science. Kalish simply isn’t that fast, he decent in the field but then again what corner OF prospect isn’t? Moore is, Pettit is, Auer is, Trout is. That’s nothing worth bragging about. Kalish kind of hits for average but not really. He kind of hits for power but not really. This kid is not a superstar and I don’t care what stat-head crap anyone uses to justify it, get him in the games and you’ll all see it for yourself. Kalish is literally a fringe OF, he might be a starter and he might be a 4th OF.
How is what Kalish did any different than what Jeremy Moore did this season? Are gonna tell me Jeremy Moore is Matt Kemp? Their K/BB ratios and OBP are favoring Kalish, but at the end of the day, how is their skill set any different? The only reason why anyone is buying the hype on Kalish is because he’s apart of the Red Sox. Send Jeremy Moore over there and some idiot will make up some obscure statistical analysis to justify Jeremy Moore’s greatness too.
Mathematic equations as a predictor has brought an element for fan bases that baseball has never seen before, and I love it for those reasons. But I also realize that they have to play the games too. I don’t think Kalish has the tools to be a superstar, I think he has the tools to be a normal major league OF, a la .250 15 HR and 20 SB and decent defense. They don’t make him a stud and they certainly don’t mean he deserves to be compared in value among Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury or Adrian Beltre. Not even his price tag makes them comparable value.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
This isn't worth arguing any further
You say league translations are bullshit, then you proceed to offer this
Kalish kind of hits for average but not really. He kind of hits for power but not really.
as an enlightened predictor of “.250 15 HR and 20 SB and decent defense” in his future. Why am I supposed to take your word on that, exactly? Then I’m not even sure what point you are trying to make with the stolen bases. They mean practically nothing in this situation.
This isn’t coming from Peter Gammons. I’m not a Red Sox fan. I probably like them even less than you do, because I live in fucking Boston and I hate talking to asshole Red Sox fans in bars and hearing them get hysterical on the radio. But I’m still telling you that Ryan Kalish is a hell of a lot better as an outfield prospect than Jeremy Moore. It will be abundantly clear if you just look at the numbers, assuming you have any idea what they actually mean.
by Suboptimal on Nov 23, 2010 5:51 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
SB have a lot of baring on this situation.
His James cal;culation or whatever it is suggest the kid is going to steal 42 bases in Boston next year. That’s where I pull the bullshit card.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Why is that unreasonable?
He stole 10 bases in about one-third of a season this year, and got caught once. He has 85 steals in 367 minor league games. It seems entirely possible that he could steal 40+ bases in a full season in the majors. You can do that when you get on base a lot. It’s not just raw speed.
In the end, though, who really cares how many bases he steals? Even 40 steals is worth less than 10 runs above average. The bat talks the loudest.
This is where you're showing your ignorance.
Kalish had more steals per plate appearance than Bourjos in the minors in 2010. He had an identical number of steals in the MLB in 14 fewer appearances.
42 steals is a perfectly sensible projection given 641 PAs, which is what James’ projection is calibrated to. Kalish stole 35 bases in 522 PAs last season. James’ projection isn’t even fancy — it’s roughly linear given past performance.
And here's where you're showing your ignorance.....
Did you even watch him last season? Did he really come across as fast to you? You’re basing your entire argument that he’s going to be great off of a September cup of coffee and mediocre minor league numbers. But I guess that’s great news for us because Dallas McPherson will outperform Ryan Howard next year and Brandon Wood will be the second coming of A-Rod.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Just a Question about James' Projections
Why is Bourjos being projected to play 102 games and only get 281 plate appearances? Why is Bourjos being projected as a backup when he’ll obviously be a starter even if his offense proves to be mediocre? I’m just curious how that projection is reached when both players received similar time in the majors last season.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
I thought you were banned.
Warning: The message above may or may not contain sarcasm. Read and interpret at your own risk.
by snowhor on Nov 25, 2010 11:38 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Halowood, buddy...
Read this post. I’m not saying all of it applies to you, and I’m not completely siding against your method of talent evaluation either, but completely dismissing the sabre stats is a bad idea.
As a predictive tool, I can agree with you that they really don’t mean much, but as an analytic tool, they really are revolutionary. Never before have fans and teams been able to so precisely determine exactly how good or bad a player is and why. It’s only going to get better as the methods are refined. You cannot change the past (at least not yet) and many of the more common sabre stats are invaluable when examining it.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 23, 2010 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
Right and sabremetrics have brought evaluation of this game to new levels.
I’m very accepting of this and anything that brings in more fans is great. But there has to be a degree of accountibility here. When these guys fall flat on their face in their predictions, someone has to be there to witness it and make it known. Someone has to police them. Just as when they are right on certian predictions, they’ll have the right to tel everyone “see I was right”.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
are you being serious?
You are the only guy on this site who makes it his explicit business to make random predictions about anyone and everyone you can as often as you can. To say others need to be policed on their predictions is pretty ridiculous given the extent you go to do exactly what they are doing, only you take it to a much further level.
The anger and bitterness you are showing is ironic due to the fact you constantly make predictions, only yours are usually based on only your keen eye, or in other words, nothing.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 11:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Yup and I'm open to being called on it. You can go ahead and tell me I'm wrong on my predictions.
I’m guessing I’ve been wrong quite a bit given the amount I make. As yeah, my predictions are based off nothing more than my gut feeling, these guys’ prediction are based on even less, random data.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
so what are you arguing then exactly?
that they use an “analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity” (wikipedia’s definition of sabermetrics), whereas you just use your keen eye and gut?
not everyone has access to your eye and gut and must find other reputable sources to base their analysis around. I know you go to as much trouble as possible to share what your gut tells you by posting endless futures for players you may have seen 10 at-bats of, but I guess there’s still some non-believers out there. Either way, you REALLY need to get over yourself.
I think Subop summed it up the best when he called your comments juvenile.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 24, 2010 8:49 AM PST up reply actions
See, that's where I disagree with you
Which is why I posted that link the Pinstripe Alley post a few comments above.
If someone is standing by sabre stats and saying, “this dude/team is going to do exactly X, Y, Z”, then yeah, call BS on them all day. But, when they are using sabre stats that analyze a player’s past performance and say “as long as he maintains his career numbers in BABIP, or if he increases his LD rate, then his OBP should remain steady or increase”, that is a general prediction that is based on relevant factual analysis of past performance. And, it is more accurate than simply saying “Howie Kendrick has a great swing, so he should hit .300+” or “his BA has always been high, so it probably will remain so.” There’s nothing wrong with saying those things, it’s just that the one using sabre stats offers a much more in-depth and verifiable explanation of why a player might perform in a certain area.
I’ll sit and talk with another baseball fan all day about BA, OBP, ERA, a hitter’s batting stance or a pitcher’s delivery; those things are still good for a general level of talent evaluation and easier to understand for casual fans. If someone really wants to know why a player performed a certain way, sabre stats are the only way to really look at that factually.
A perfect example of this is Bobby Abreu. His OBP dropped around 40 points in 2010. His walk rate stayed about the same, his power numbers were in line with career norms, and he didn’t seem to be much slower than in 2009. The thing that dropped tremendously was his BA. He only struck out a handful of times more than in 2009. If you look, his BABIP dropped almost 40 points from 2009 and almost 50 points off his career norm. He just didn’t get as many hits to fall in. A justifiable prediction to make is that if he returns closer to his career numbers in BABIP, his OBP will get back to it’s usually high range.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 9:15 AM PST up reply actions
if he increases his LD rate, then his OBP should remain steady or increase
You can probably dig around in the beginnings of baseball. and find the hated managers and guys in straw hats saying that the way a guy is hitting line drives his average will go up. There are numerous cliches that have been around forever that say what I repeated in what I quoted.
Getting on base more often is the same as increasing OBP. I expect claims for invention of the wheel before long.
Not inventing the wheel, just better explaining how and why it works
I have no doubt there were those coaches that you mention back in the day. A stat like LD rate gives factual evidence to back up that hunch.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 9:40 PM PST up reply actions
If two people say the exact same thing, one isn’t better. There are whole books written about the reliability and validity of stats. LD rate in baseball is kind of a joke if you ask me. Its some low paid guy categorizing them. I’ve never been able to find out if there is an actual standard to go by. What do you think is the dividing line between a fly ball and a line drive?
I don't think I ever claimed the sabremetric system was flawless
I freely admit that there are areas where the data and method of analysis is fuzzy and needs some improvement. Trajectory analysis (which is what LD rate is) is one of those areas. As this article discusses, LD rate, FB rate, etc. are open to subjectivity by nature, even when you include machines. There are variations between different methods, as shown in that article, so their conclusions aren’t quite as solid as in some other areas – but they still give a rough idea of what’s going on.
If two people say the exact same thing, one isn’t better.
I’m not really sure what we’re arguing here. I never said one person was wrong and the other was right; it’s simply a difference between using “layman’s terms” and “scientific terms” if you will. They both say the same things, but one is more detailed.
LD rate is just one example, and it’s kind of an obscure one anyway. Other sabre stats are far more straightforward and accurate. BABIP is an example of this for the discussion that’s been going on in this thread. It is simply how many balls the batter put in play that landed for base hits. For a player like Abreu, it indicates that he was having an unlucky year with the bat while the rest of his offensive numbers remained about the same.
I don’t have a problem with hunches and whatnot based on what people see. I also don’t see why it’s a problem to use numbers that reinforce those hunches.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 26, 2010 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
This kid is not a superstar and I don’t care what stat-head crap anyone uses to justify it, get him in the games and you’ll all see it for yourself. Kalish is literally a fringe OF
That’s star material right there!
I make 9 millions a year for doin' NOTHING b***h! Now, Who's the loser?
You're the devil!!!
But I think you’re right.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 26, 2010 11:45 PM PST up reply actions
Here's another one
Kalish Spectacular catch
The video of the first catch
BTW, I don’t the Sux will let him go: They like him A LOT!
I make 9 millions a year for doin' NOTHING b***h! Now, Who's the loser?
I know they won't. They're too smart to deal him, even if it is for the beloved Mike Napoli.
And you’re still the devil!!
:}
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 27, 2010 12:01 AM PST up reply actions
The reality is
We don’t know what these minor league players are going to equate to. Not for Bourjos, Kalish or anyone else. At least not based on these specific formulas which are consistently referred to and bring no results. To what level the offensive contexts in the PCL and IL skewed the actual talent level of these two guys and how they will react to MLB competition will only be seen with time.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
Here here for the voice of reason. Must be that Bowling Green education, right?
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 5:34 PM PST up reply actions
Well put. Stats vs Observation.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Another misconception. You think I think Callaspo is great. False.
I think Callaspo at 1 million is a better value than Beltre at 15+ million after age 32. When you really think about it and stop blurring it with cherry-picked data analysis, it actually makes perfect sense.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
The best "value" is irrelevant. We are not a value budget team.
Our team’s owner has committed the money to spend. If Reagins keeps looking for “value” and not production, he is going to be out of a job because we will keep missing the playoffs.
Our team strategy cannot be develop good players and look for deals in the free agent market. Sure we cant be stupid, but we need to develop good players (Weaver, Morales, Bourjos, etc…) and OVERPAY for stars that push those good players into the playoffs/ world series.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 24, 2010 8:49 AM PST up reply actions
Clearly you've limited yours.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I sure as hell hope that Reno Reagins and the rest of the FO put as much thought and research into their offseason as you guys do.
Halowood and Turk, you both do an excellent job of presenting your cases. Much respect.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
That's true
But following that logic, who would ever invest in the stock market? We don’t know where the market is going for certain either.
At some point you have to make a decision based on the best information you can gather. Baseball teams are worth hundreds of millions of dollars; it’s not unreasonable to look for perspective in as many places as possible.
I'm not trading Napoli for a .297 / .366 / .476 peak hitter sorry
Reggie Willits: The non-tender candidate of my dreams.
As much of a joke as that is, if we're going to include Kalish, we might as well include Granderson. Why not?
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Just wanted to add that I'm not getting off the Mike Napoli train.
Conger got released from his winter league team and Mathis seems to be as useful as a bullpen catcher. Give Naps the starting job with BoWilson as the back up. He put up way better numbers than Mathis in half the AB’s, albeit way better numbers mean a very serviceable back-up catcher.
I agree about keeping Napoli
He has a lot of value even if Sosh only plays him half the time. He should split duties with Conger at Catcher, and be a powerful back up at 1st and DH.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
Why don't we all stop these shenanigans and sign CC to his desired six years.
They want power. We want respect...
If only :(
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2010 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
It's not a bad idea at all. Did they ever recover from that spat?
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
The hilarious thing about all of the bitching in this and other threads...
…is that nobody here is going to give a shit how much it cost to sign Beltre and Crawford, or to trade for Ellsbury or Kemp if those players are raising even just one World Series trophy or AL penant over their heads in an Angel uniform in the next 1-3 years.
Seriously guys, there’s only so much any given GM can do in any free agent market. Much of it relies on confidence and creativity. Examine what’s available, analyze it to the point where you can come to a set of justifiable conclusions and then act on those conclusions and react to the actions of others as the market plays out. That’s really all you can do.
After that, there are 162 games, plus Spring Training, for your perfect plan to fall apart or your shitty plan to work beautifully.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 23, 2010 9:35 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
True enough
(Imagine the following written out in purple crayon on construction paper.)
BRIAN SABEAN’Z MASTER PLAN (BY BRIAN SABEAN)
- SPEND A $$$ DOLLARS ON BARRY ZITO
- SPEND A $$$ DOLLARS ON AARON ROWAND
- SPEND NOT AS MNAY DOLLARS (MAYBE $$ DOLLARS?) ON EDGAR RENTERIA
- MARK D ROSSA!!! SOME1 SAID HES HURT BUT I DONT THINK SO
- SPEND A DOLLAR ON BENGIE MOLINA (BUSTER STAY IN THE MINURZ)
- PICK UP LOTZ OF WAVER CLAIMS (FREE PLAYURZ!)WIN WORLD SERIZE!!!!
by Suboptimal on Nov 23, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
If only championships were won on paper.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2010 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
I can't help but smile when I see that Zito contract.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2010 10:42 PM PST up reply actions
I still can't believe he stayed with the Lakers.
Bless his heart.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2010 11:01 PM PST up reply actions
That's the real world. I didn't see any statistical analysis come out before the season that suggested the Giants would win it all
Thus the statistical analysis was just as accurate as I was, in that it was completely wrong.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Nobody saw that coming--through either statistics or observation
Except maybe dreamin’ and tokin’ Giant fans
Exactly Raaddad. Neither observation or statistics were right.
So why is one favored over another even though it’s not accurate? In the world of sabremetrics vs experienced observation vs high as a kite Giants fan who won this one? The Giants fan. Was it the weed or high degree of alternate lifestyles in th bay area? Perhaps we should create a fan post on that suggesting it’s predictive powers. I feel like DOV would be up the challenge. It would be just as accurate as this post.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
If this were poker
you just won pot with that Giants “card,” brotha.
DOV as “Master Prognosticator”—now I’m cracking up.
Who knows? “There’s more to heaven and earth…”
and so on…
I only write or imagine in RED CRAYON, Suboptimal!
Traitor.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 8:49 AM PST up reply actions
BEHOLD HALOWOOD'S PREDICTING POWER!!!
March 3rd, 2010. Halowood writes:
Honestly I think the biggest surprise next year will be the Giants. Lincecum and Cain are the best 1-2 punch in that league, Sanchez turned a corner last year, and they have mor arms coming up. They have a solid bullpen and they added DeRosa, Huff, Freddy Sanchez and have Buster Posey almost ready. That team won 88 games last year, I honestly think they might win 95 in 2010.
Yay I’m a genius, do I get a medal? Do sabremetrics still have to exist?
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
June 23, 2010
Look it’s unavoidable. Brandon Wood stunk to begin the season. I was down on him, and so was everyone else. I’ve been saying it for a week now that he’s figured something out and according to the stats, yes, he has. Since sliding over to SS on June 16th, Wood has gone 6 for 17. It’s a small sample size but thats 5 games in a row he’s collected a hit, an impossible feat earlier in the season.
Prior to this streak Wood had struck out 36 times in 125 AB’s, or roughly 1/3 of the time. While he has 4 K’s in his last 17 AB’s, slightly less than 1/4 of the AB’s, the same size is too small to say he’s completely turned the corner. Wood’s defense has also been progressing at SS, after a terrible game in the field for Joe Saunders, Wood saved the game last night against the Dodgers with a Sportcenter highlight dive and glove flip to begin the double play.
I can’t claim Brandon Wood’s season is completely turned around and be truthful. But it is clear, that SOMETHING, has happened, a light bulb came on or he’s lighter mentally. Just something. Just watching his AB’s, his hands look the same, I don’t think Hatcher changed anything there. Clearly he doesn’t have power anymore without his hands held high and a longer swing. Wood however has closed off his stance just a shade, isn’t moving as much before the pitch and is making more contact. He’ll probably never walk alot as he’s the one guy every pitcher can and should throw strikes to in this lineup.
We don’t have a superstar yet, but I think we have a capable fill in at 3B/SS/1B that isn’t an automatic K.
For the record, Brandon Wood hit .098 after June 23.
by Suboptimal on Nov 23, 2010 11:07 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
A broken clock is still accurate twice a day.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Ouch. An old Post never dies on the interwebs.
I remember a time when we could talk out of our asses and those words would fade away like flatulence in the wind.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 11:24 PM PST up reply actions
hahaha
So halowood is cool claiming wood’s season had turned around based on 17 at-bats, and yet freaks out when someone days kalish could steal 40 bases based off what he did in a third of a season. Amazing
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 11:27 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
days=says
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 23, 2010 11:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Exactly. I've been right before and wrong before, just like sabremetrics subop.
So where’s the comment about how sabremetrics accurately predicted a Giants World Series? Oh that’s right it never happened. Really reliable source for your predictions, just as reliable as mine I’d say.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
By the way, for those of you who don't know, that was sarcasm, I don't deserve a medal.
But halfway serious in that neither does sabremetrics.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Then why even bother.
The human element is at play with both schools of analysis. The sabre’s try to take the human element out of it, but it’s impossible. There was no way that the 02 Angels should have won it all, but they did. So did the Giants, and so might next year’s champs. This is just another way for mankind to try to make sense and figure out a world that can’t always be figured out. (I’m getting way to philosophical here). I guess Yogi had it right all along when he said that baseball can be summed up in two words…You never know.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 23, 2010 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
actually
2002 Angels had the best regular season pythagorean record in baseball.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 24, 2010 12:58 AM PST up reply actions
you are not allowed to be sarcastic
you are not capable of it anyway.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 23, 2010 11:49 PM PST up reply actions
Tell me, who did sabermetrics predict would win the World Series?
As soon as we know, we’ll go find sabermetrics and ask him to apologize.
TRANSFORMATION as I recall.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Already addressed that.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
can't escape it
tattoos are forever like brandon wood posts
by Rev Halofan on Nov 24, 2010 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
I know I'm still a rookie...
but how do you get the text in grey like that?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 24, 2010 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
Use the quote button to highlight text
It’s the blue button just above the area you type your new comment (right above where I’m typing this now, but will go away after I’ve hit post).
Also, be sure to use the “Preview” button below to make sure your comment is the way you want it before you post it.
thankyou
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 25, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
It might not have been predicted, but I don't think many were surprised
And it’s for the same reasons you listed. Yes, everyone knew the Giants had great pitching and the Dodgers were slipping. For at least 2 years now, all the Giants have needed was offense. Some guys stepped it up for them this year, and they added guys who performed very well, like Burrell and Posey. Early in the season, I figured it would be the Rockies or Giants out of the NL West. After the All-Star Break, I figured it would be the Padres or Giants.
Anyone could have told you the Giants were going to be deadly in the playoffs just because of their pitching, so no, their victory really wasn’t a big surprise.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
just found this nugget
posted by Halowood on March 3rd
I’ll shorten it as mine as much as possible AL WEST- Angels (93 wins) by 8 games
AL CENTRAL- White Sox (90 wins) by 4 games
AL EAST- Red Sox (97 wins) by 3 games
AL WC- Yankees (94 wins)
NL WEST- Giants (89 wins) by 1 game
NL CENTRAL- Cardinals (95 wins) by 8 games
NL EAST- Phillies (90 wins) by 1 games
NL WC- Mets (89 wins)
Angels vs Yankees – Angels in 5
White Sox vs Red Sox – Red Sox in 5
Cardinals vs Mets – Mets in 4
Phillies vs Giants- Phillies in 5
Angels vs Red Sox – Red Sox in 7
Mets vs Phillies – Mets in 6
Red Sox vs Mets – Red Sox in 5
the thing is, when you make various predictions about who can win something, you’re bound to be correct eventually. but whats funny is how you’re boasting about being correct when not 24 hours prior you picked a completely different team, and didn’t even have the Giants making it out of the first round.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 25, 2010 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
Hostility Abounds!
I missed out on an epic thread. On to the next order of business the bullshit that is wRISP, who wants to start?
I took your stash.
I've never seen so many nerds arguing over baseball.
Who’s on first? Who? What? Shut up!
I've got nothing.
by bc56274 on Nov 24, 2010 12:35 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Revs can't be Paladin's!
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
Lololololololololol
" With Haren bolstering the rotation, the Angels are set up beautifully for 2011"- Another East coast biased reporter
by Halos2011champs on Nov 24, 2010 10:32 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
You wonked that caller on the Halocast
or whatever its called with about 2 dozen WARs. I forget who he was advocating for, Ells, I think and I agreed with your basic point – just wanted to say that.
What a fantastic thread
I can’t wait till the Angels actually do something that everyone can discuss.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
by ryanfea on Nov 24, 2010 1:02 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you Halowood...
…to a point.
I think the original thought you had was Beltre wouldn’t out-perform Callaspo by the amount the Angels would have to pay him. In other words, Callaspo at $1M was a better bargain than Beltre at $15M.
This is the point I agree with you on.
However, the Angels aren’t the Royals, or the Pirates, or the Rays. They’re not looking to get the most bang-for-the-buck. They have the resources to spend, or over pay on players which other teams don’t. If there were a salary cap in which every team were under the same limitation, I’d buy what you’re selling, but since the Angels can afford to spend $15M on one player, I think they should if that one player is the best available player (at that position). Division championships, or World Series aren’t won with players like Callaspo leading the way. The Callaspo’s of the world are the players that provide the depth to continue winning when “things” happen. Players like Beltre (or Crawford) are the types of players who can carry a team, they are the “difference makers”.
Regarding your view about saber-stuff…I think you’re full of shit.
^THIS^
We are the second-largest market in the American League. If Arte really does have a new whoppin’ TV deal in the works or in place (which he should considering what Texas got), then funding a couple years of heavy spending shouldn’t be a problem.
We are a big-market team; it’s time to act like it.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
I heard some rumors about the tv deal
a couple weeks back. if it is successful it’ll be huge considering the few choice details he gave me. soemthing about a couple other teams being broadcast on it along with the Halos. one of the teams rhymes with Bakers and they have a superstar player whose name rhymes with Mobe.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 24, 2010 8:52 AM PST up reply actions
This is from your mole I assume?
I heard a few things on the interwebz a while back, but nothing since. I’ve just kind of assumed it was either still in the works, or that Arte has decided to keep it under wraps in the interests of professionalism or something like that.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
finger to nose
its lookin 50/50 right now, from what I heard.
personally I thought it was crazy that the Bakers would want to be broadcast on a Halos network when they are the driving force of professional sports in LA. seems like they could have their own network that the Halos would be broadcast on, not the other way around. also mentioned were a team that rhymes with Stings, which I found peculiar since the Ducks would be left out. guess Arte really is making a play for LA dominance.
it did please me though that if it goes as I was told, the Dodgers will be left out in the cold all alone.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 24, 2010 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
Why not include the Ducks and Clippers as well?
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
I'm guessing that
it would be too many teams for a single station to handle. The Kings look to be a good team for the next few years, plus they are LA, and Arte wants that LA market. by teaming up with an LA hockey team instead of the OC one, it helps the Halos’ exposure in that market, I would assume.
and I don’t think I really need to make an argument as to why the Clippers wouldn’t be included. I doubt Arte wants anything to so with Sterling.
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 24, 2010 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
I guess that makes sense
As for why the Lakers would want to be involved, I think it has to do with the fact that baseball is still a more popular sport. MLB and the NFL are the top two sports in America (1 or 2 depends how you look at it); the NBA is firmly entrenched in 3rd place.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 24, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
The Ducks, I can understand.
But the Clips? They want to GET ratings, not lose them.
Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch
The Kings have more history
and a more devoted fan base, Cup or no Cup.
a very fair and non-hurtful response to Halowood
what a nice guy
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 24, 2010 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks
Me and Cuddles appreciate the kind words.
by WiHaloFan on Nov 25, 2010 6:39 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I lost it on that reply
And the photo causes me to emit spastic laughter, much like Muttley (of Dastardly and Muttley fame).
Top notch work, guys. Take a victory lap, both of you.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Nov 25, 2010 6:55 AM PST up reply actions
Timing is everything.
I was reading right at that spot of the page when the picture popped up.
I lost it also.
im for getting crawford
players with his skill set have historically aged pretty well. In addition, I love the idea of having a future outfield of Crawford, Bourjos, and Trout. NOTHING is falling in between those guys. A flyball pitcher like WTY wins the Cy Young that year.
by gary matthews jr. jr. on Nov 24, 2010 6:46 AM PST reply actions
BP on CC today
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
Looks suspiciously like the article I'm going to post after the holiday
Except that I’ll actually proof-read mine.
Seriously, man
What happened to that site? I haven’t subscribed for about 2 years now, but every time I catch a glimpse of what they’re up to these days it feels like a jr. high school paper column.
The information is useful. Why can’t they find someone who can put it into words without putting the reader to sleep?
BP is dying
The pay model just doesn’t work on the Internet; BBTF and HBT put up better content for free. All their good writers have moved on to better things. No one cares about their stats anymore since Fangraphs came around. Hell, even BTB produces more interesting research these days. I think BP even held a “contest” to find a select a new staff writer from their community. Really? A contest?
My conclusion after reading the article.....sign him!!!
He’s 30 years old, if we sign him to a 6 year contract, I think he’d still be the same Carl Crawford (.300/.350 30+ DB 10+ triple 15+ HR 50+ SB and fantastic defense in LF) for 4 years. Then the final two years of his contract, we’d more than likely have a player closely resembling Howie Kendrick right now, decent hitter but not special at any one thing.
Considering our current needs, I like that contract better than Beltre’s potential contract at age 32 for over 15 million. But like other people said, we’re not budget strapped like smaller market clubs, so there’s good reason to open to wallet and sign them both. It’s hard to disagree especially when you consider we have a lot of money coming off the books next year. Still, maybe it’s because I’m frugal, but I’d rather save money and keep ticket prices low.
Then again, if you were to tell me right now that if we blew up our payroll and signed Crawford, Beltre and Soriano we’d win the World Series, I’d be yelling and screaming for them to sign too.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I think the Red Sox over hype (over-sell) their prospects so they can trade them.
I got BA’s top 10 prospect lists for the american league least recently, and I was not impressed with ANY of the top 10’s for the redsox. It doesn’t make any sense to me to trade for Ryan Kalish. Ellsbery went to Oregon state, so I would love it if we got him, plus he has a track record of proven MLB success.
Ditto, though my preference for a Napoli-Ellsbury trade has been well documented.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
154 posts and 24 hrs later --
For a late Nov offering, it got some steam out of the ducts. It was definitely worth the hour-plus it took to post this.
That said, I really didn’t think pointing out that Ryan Kalish was an interesting prospect would be the most controversial item here.
by Turks Teeth on Nov 24, 2010 5:13 PM PST via mobile reply actions
ya nice post...
got pretty heated and personal
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 24, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
I say if we trade
we trade for Jose Reyes. Then we still sign Crawford. Reyes leads off, Crawford bats 2nd and we have more speed than Andy Dick’s house
by No Bologna Polonia on Nov 24, 2010 7:41 PM PST reply actions
What would it cost for one year of Reyes? They want 3 or 4 players, I'm not sure I'd go past Napoli and Aybar. If that.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I'm not sure...
he’s coming off a down year and health issues the year before, not to mention they are probably going to lose him anyway after this season. I dont think it would take as much as we might think. Maybe even get it done without giving up Napoli. They need an outfielder. Maybe they could be the ones to take Rivera off our hands. I think it’s a least worth kicking the tires on.
by No Bologna Polonia on Nov 24, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, but I wouldn't be expecting much.....
I mean his price tage is what, 11 million? Not unreasonable, but if the Mets are going to trade him, I don’t think they’d take on Rivera and his 5 million dollar price tag. I think they’d want players ready for MLB and prospects. They’d probably ask Napoli, Aybar, Moore and Trevor Bell.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
You might as well trade for Furcal in that case.
He’ll cost much less in trade chips, the salary is roughly the same, and he’s been the better defender the past two years. He’s also coming off the better year.
He’ll steal fewer bases than Reyes, but he’ll also walk more than Reyes as well. The Mets want 3-4 players based on what Reyes did 2-4 seasons ago — Furcal won’t cost nearly that.
There are worse leadoff options than Maicer/Furcal. They both have the injury bug, so it’d probably be a forced platoon over the course of the season.
Furcal's coing off a decent year, but I'd still take Aybar over him. Younger, cheaper, better at this point in their careers.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Better?
Based on what? Besides the health risk, Furcal is better than Aybar at every facet of the game, even with him being on the wrong side of 30. Aybar will never re-live 2009.
Based on what Furcal does every other season.
I’ll take Furcal’s 2009 numbers, since last season wasn’t a full year, he could have either cooled off (probable) or kept pace (improbable). .269/.335 28 DB 9 HR 12 SB and a .968 fielding pct. After age 29, that’s Furcal’s average season, so that’s what we could expect if he were to stay healthy, which still isn’t all that great.
For Aybar, I’ll use career average, solely because 2009 was an up year and that wouldn’t be fair to compare and 2010 was a down year, that wouldn’t be fair either. Aybar’s still young enough that career averages still apply because he’s in his prime. So .274/.319 22 DB 5 HR 16 SB and .967 fielding pct.
So essentially we have the same exact player, except Aybar is in his prime and more than likely will outperform his career average, is cheaper, under team control for more years and isn’t an injury risk. All things considered, at this point Aybar > Furcal.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
OBP
Furcal gets on base. Aybar doesn’t. His defense is as good or better. The cost and health risk are worrisome but as Turk mentioned above, that’s what Maicer (and even Callaspo) are for.
Maicer gets hurt more than Furcal
In his prime Furcal was better defensively, right now, Aybar is better. OBP, yeah Furcal is better, but stil nowhere near good enough to leadoff. We’d be better off having Howie leadoff than Furcal. Furcal woud be at the bottom of lineup, just like Aybar.
If it was a one year deal for both of them and the money was he same, I’d take Furcal because we have Izzy, Callaspo and Wood to back him up. But, since Aybar is younger, cheaper and under control for a few more years, Aybar’s the clear choice.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Howie and his .313 OBP is just as horrible of an idea leading off as Aybar.
Warning: The message above may or may not contain sarcasm. Read and interpret at your own risk.
by snowhor on Nov 25, 2010 3:48 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
What OBP would be good enough to bat leadoff?
Furcal’s career OBP is .351. Kendrick’s career OBP is .327 and Aybar’s is .318. Even Crawford is only at .337 lifetime. It would be nice if we could unfreeze a 2009 version of Chone Figgins from cryogenic storage along with his .395 OBP that year, but the Angels just don’t have a lot of options. Besides making a move for someone like Furcal, there’s not much else to do but hope Bobby Abreu has something left in the tank.
Riddle me this Subop, when's the last time Furcal played a full season and had an OBP over .350?
That’s right, going on 5 YEARS AGO. It’s about time people stopped using career averages for players above the age of 32, it’s completely foolish. Outside of steroids, players generally don’t get better from age 33 on.
Hey when’s the last time Aybar played a full season and posted an OBP over .350? 2009, that’s right. Not too long ago. Might as well go with Aybar over Furcal.
As far as Abreu at leadoff, it’s a freakin’ AWFUL idea. Fans that consider OBP alone as the measurement of a good leadoff hitter are ignoring a large majority of the game. Once a player gets on base, they gotta be able to do something there. Steal bases, be aggressive, take the extra base on a ball in the dirt, go 1st to 3rd, score from 2nd on a single, tag up and take another bag on fly balls to the OF. If all that matters for leadoff hitters is OBP, then I say we just sign Adam Dunn and have hm bat leadoff. Ridiculous right?
Bobby Abreu’s not that player anymore.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I can guarantee you
The Angels would have scored more runs last year with Adam Dunn batting leadoff. Getting on base has a much stronger influence on your ability to score runs than being fast on the bases. I could point you to other sources elaborating on this point, but you would accuse me of being narrow-minded for not accepted your singular view solely on your authority.
So I’ll offer a simple challenge, which you will completely neglect in your hasty misconstrual some other minor detail, but what the hell. You deserve a chance to show us that you’re right.
John Jaso is not a fast runner; he’s stolen 20 bases in his life. So how many times did Jaso, when batting lead-off, cost the Rays a run by slowing up Carl Crawford batting behind him? Then tell me how many times Jaso getting on base actually earned the Rays a run. Subtract the first number from the second. Is it greater than or less than zero?
You’re beating your chest and telling me it’s much less than zero. So prove it. You said you watch Carl Crawford play all the time. I’ve got MLB.TV; show me some evidence.
You think I actually have time to do that?
Look don’t me wrong it’s Thanksgiving Break and I don’t have school until Monday, but why would I spend my time going through my mlbt.tv archives so I could attempt to meet your challenge. That’s like me asking you to find out how many time Yogi Berra flied out to 2B on Tuesdays that were sunny in Northern Nebraska during the month of August.
It’s pointless, Jaso and Abreu aren’t the same player. Bobby’s going to be 38 next year, and whether you like it or not, he would limit Crawford’s running ability. Bobby’s not going to be stealing 30 bases anymore and he’s not fast enough or aggressive enough to be a leadoff hitter.
Crawford won’t bat leadoff, he’s made that clear, but if we’re going to argue over something hypotheitcal like whether he should or not, then why not argue over everything hypothetical. If the U.S. goes to war with North Korea, how many troops would be deployed into the South from Okinawa and would China’s relations with the North restrict Naval supply lanes to the South, eliminating the effectiveness of our Aircraft Carriers?
It’s just not worth doing homework on, at least not for me Subop. You wanna spend your time analyzing every game and every AB of Jaso and Crawford, that’s your business.
As far as Adam dunn goes, sure we would have scored more runs, Adam Dunn hits tons of HR’s. It’s not like his speed would have made a difference on the bases. That’s comparing Adam Dunn to Erick Aybar. Here’s an honest question for you since we love the hypothetical here, who would have made a better leadoff hitter for the Angels last year, Adam Dunn or Carl Crawford?
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
So, in other words
No, you can’t do it. But you seemed so confident about the “base-clogging effect,” I thought you’d have a dozen examples, based on your extensive relationship with Carl Crawford, all ready to go. Well, I guess we just have to take your word for it.
On the other hand, I could show you evidence to support the conclusion that Adam Dunn would have created more runs batting lead-off than Carl Crawford, but it might warp your mind. I don’t want to be responsible for corrupting your pristine beliefs.
Subop on the offensive again. Seriously anyoe that disagrees with you is doomed aren't they?
You think I won’t accept any new conclusions, and once again you’re still guilty of the same thing Subop.
Alright, well since Crawford’s not an option at leadoff then I say in order to appease Subop, we either sign Adam Dunn for leadoff and play LF or we go with Napoli at leadoff.
Seriously just stop and listen to yourself. Turks Teeth says Kalish is going to be a superstar in his 21 year old rookie season and should be traded for Napoli. Kaplan says Abreu over Crawford even though Crawford i younger, faster and had a better OBP last year. You say Adam Dunn over Carl Crawford.
You are all insane, you really really are. I’m being burned at the stake for being the voice of reason here. I suck at expressing it, I’ll grant you that, but ask just about any major league coach and they’ll look at you like you’re joking if you tell them Dunn’s a better leadoff hitter than Crawford and Kalish is going to be better than Jason Heyward in his rookie year.
Seriously just think about the insanity you’re spewing forth right now.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
by Halowood on Nov 26, 2010 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, that's fine
If you don’t want to give me any reason to believe your assertions, beside the fact that you said them, then I’ll just continue to not believe them. If you’d stop foaming for a few seconds, you’d be surprised to find that I can be pretty responsive to careful and credible argumentation, neither of which you seem to be terribly interested in providing.
Adopting a victim complex, however, will do nothing to persuade me that you’ve considered the issue any more thoroughly than the hundreds of enlightened individuals who have done so before you. In the absence of reason, you’ve resorted to demagoguery.
I only said I'm being burned at the stake, how is that a victim complex?
Besides, look at some of the comments, would you not agree I’m not the most likeled poster here right now? I mean it’s fine, this is simply an internet baseball blog, so unless there are some seriously crazy people out there, life will go on. But there’s victim complex here Subop.
Don’t bother taking my words as a way of validating the argument that Crawford is a better leadoff hitter than Adam Dunn, just use common sense. I mean really really think about it for a minute. Take a step step back and realize which two players we’re talking about here.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Be careful with appeals to common sense
It doesn’t work in your favor in this case. To wit:
Adam Dunn led off an inning 151 times in 2010. He came around to score 39 times, so when given a lead-off opportunity, he succeeded better than once out of every four times.
Carl Crawford led off an inning 107 times in 2010. He came around to score 23 times, which is worse than once out of every four times.
Yes, that’s right. Even with all that speed, Adam Dunn still scored sixteen more lead-off runs than Carl Crawford in 2010. Of course Dunn had more opportunities to do so. Why is that?
Because Adam Dunn almost always hit fourth in the lineup. Since the most probable outcome for the first inning is three straight outs, the #4 hitter is the most likely batter to lead off the second. However, the lead-off point in the lineup becomes so mixed up after the second inning that all spots become equally likely. This means that only the #1 and #4 hitters get a boost to the number of lead-off opportunities. Adam Dunn was effectively the Nationals second lead-off man.
Meanwhile, the #2 and #3 positions (where Crawford always hits) can never lead off the first inning, which actually makes these spots the least likely to lead off an inning. If Crawford won’t bat first, you have to live with the fact that even the #8 and #9 spots will get more lead-off opportunities than he will.
Okay, so suppose Crawford will bat lead-off. This would give him about 40 more lead-off opportunities than Dunn had last season. But remember, Adam Dunn also scored more often when leading off an inning. And this is playing for the Nationals, where the next three batters in the lineup were usually Josh Willingham (.848 OPS), Pudge Rodriguez (.640 OPS), and Roger Bernadina (.691 OPS).
On the other hand, Crawford had Evan Longoria (.879 OPS), Ben Zobrist (.699 OPS), and Carlos Pena (.732 OPS) to back him up. He also stole 47 bases. Yet he still scored runs when leading off an inning at a lesser rate than Adam Dunn. Given an equal number of opportunities, he would have scored between 5 and 10 fewer.
Adam Dunn is just so much better at getting on base than Carl Crawford is, it more than erases his speed disadvantage. He did it more than 40% of the time he led off an inning, and 17% of the time he even put himself in scoring position with a double or drove in the run himself with a homer.
Crawford succeeded less than 34% of the time. He had 10 extra-base hits and stole 5 bases. All told, that’s a grand total of 15 times he put himself in scoring position. At the rate Dunn connects for extra base hits, he would still have got himself in scoring position at least an equal number of times with the same number of opportunities.
So you’re going to say that 2010 was a fluke. That’s partially true. It was a fluke for both players.
Over the course of his career, Adam Dunn has led off an inning 1347 times and scored 242 times. Carl Crawford has led off 1261 times and scored 235 times. That’s once every 5.6 times for Dunn, 5.4 times for Crawford. If they had both had 1300 opportunities, Crawford would have about an 8 run advantage. That’s less than one run per season.
I don’t have time to research how much protection each batter had over the course of his career, but I doubt it would make a big difference. If anything, it would probably work in favor of Dunn. Crawford has at least played for a good team in three of his nine seasons. Adam Dunn never has.
So in other words, if you took about 15 minutes to actually look up some numbers (not fancy sabermetric numbers, just simple counting numbers), you would realize that you are totally full of shit. It’s impossible to form a counter-argument to what I’ve just explained with an equal level of rationality, so I look forward to whatever bullshit you’ll offer up in response. The depth of your imagination is remarkable.
by Suboptimal on Nov 27, 2010 12:18 AM PST up reply actions 7 recs
FROM THE MOUNTAINTOP... Sub-OP with the Charlton Heston act, telling us all:
Thou shalt not talk out of thy ass as a retort.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 27, 2010 12:24 AM PST up reply actions
Perhaps I should amend my statement
Perhaps someone, some day will form a rational counter-argument to the above. That person will not be Halowood.
You're still on the offensive you MFer
so I look forward to whatever bullshit you’ll offer up in response. The depth of your imagination is remarkable.
You just wrote a 700 word response, and then claimed not to have time for something. You’re not only a douche and a hypocrite, now you’re also a liar.
Did it ever occur to you, that major league lineups are constructed in a certain manner for a certain reason? If Adam Dunn was the best leadoff option for the given team he was playing on, he’d be batting leadoff. His manager doesn’t bat him 4th because he’s anticipating a 1-2-3 first inning, that’s just plain f’n stupid. There’s a reason leadoff hitters are little speedy guys that steal bases, and not gargantuan homerun hitters, just ask Ichiro, or Figgy, I’m sure they know why they bat there a lot.
You’re still blurring the truth. You’re still trying to convince me and everyone else that Adam Dunn is a better leadoff hitter than Carl Crawford. The people who side with you are still claiming Ryan Kalish, in his rookie 21 year old season will be better than Jason Heyward despite the fact that he never topped 25 SB or 18 HR’s in the minors. The people who jump on your side are still claiming Bobby Abreu is a better leadoff hitter than Carl Crawford, even though he’s a 37 year old DH with half the SB and a worse OBP last year.
Any way you shake it Subop, you’re trying to sell a pile shit. You’re wrong and you probably know it, and that’s the second worst part. The worst part is you actually have other posters buying this crap.
Someone needs to call you on this crap. Someone need to call Turks Teeth on the crap he’s selling. Someone needs to call Kaplan on the garbage he’s promoting. I’ve got news for you, I’m not the enemy, and I’m something to demonized, I’m simply the poster who’s pulling the bullshit card on you because you are full of shit. It doesn’t matter how you try to legitimize it, you’re just plain wrong. So please write another 700 word essay about how you’re right and and I’m wrong, or even make it 10 words, I really don’t care. When boiled down to the most basic terms, you’re wrong Subop, and I’m not afraid to be the one to shove your face in it when the time comes, because you’ve earned it. You have it coming. You’re not going to win this one. Bobby Abreu will not be the amazing leadoff hitter you’re making him out to be, Adam Dunn will not bat leadoff, Ryan Kalish will not hit 20+ HR and steal 40+ bags. What else is there Subop, what else do you have?
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Yeah, what else do you have, Subop?
Aside from unassailable, documented facts?
Aside from an understanding of the question?
Sure, Abreu had twice as many walks as Crawford in fewer AB last year, but why would walks matter for a leadoff hitter?
Of course, Abreu sees 25% more pitches per AB than does Crawford, but why would patience and a keen eye matter for a leadoff hitter?
We know that Abreu is far more skilled at getting on base when nobody is on base, but why would that have any relevance to a leadoff hitter?
You have lots of fancy facts and impartial data to try and bolster your claim, but you lack the key ingredient: Halowood’s gut instinct. He doesn’t need facts, he just knows, because, you see, he played the game. It doesn’t matter whether or not any of us have any experience on the field or any sense of intuition, he just fucking knows.
Your logic and facts are useless against him. Give up.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Nov 27, 2010 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Interestingly enough
Ryan Kalish, in his rookie 21 year old season will be better than Jason Heyward despite the fact that he never topped 25 SB or 18 HR’s in the minors.
Jason Heyward never topped those numbers in the minors either. Perhaps there is more at play here than simply digesting their minor league stats.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
What I don't have time for is you
You can’t win by thinking, so you’re trying to win by shouting. It’s become so loud that we haven’t been able to have a real discussion on this site for days.
Nevertheless, I’m willing to put my beliefs to the test. However, we need to agree about what we are disagreeing about. You’ve misrepresented all of our claims. What we are actually saying is:
Do you accept that these are our claims, or will you persist in misconstruing them? Perhaps we can have a useful discussion after getting on the same page.
If you can devise means of fairly testing these hypotheses and presenting the results in a dispassionate manner, then by all means, put them to the test. But if you won’t raise the level of your discourse, then just shut the hell up.
by Suboptimal on Nov 27, 2010 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
do you ever reread what you write?
I only said I’m being burned at the stake, how is that a victim complex?
huh?
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 27, 2010 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
That was one of my favorite lines from yesterday
Having the hyper-emotional reaction of a 13 year old girl [“I’m being burned at the stake!”] and then asking with complete lack of self-awareness “how is that a victim complex?” was truly one of the funniest posts of this entire experience.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Nov 27, 2010 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
how are players supposed to do the things you listed
if they aren’t getting on base? Abreu is very good at doing that, and since he led the team in SB last season, he still seems to have some speed left in the tank.
by the rationale you just showed, Bourjos would be your prime candidate to leadoff since he can be aggressive, steal bases and go 1st to 3rd better than anyone else on the team, right? his OBP shouldn’t matter to the fans, according to you, so long as he can do those other things. Right?
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 25, 2010 11:16 PM PST up reply actions
OBP matters enough to prohibit Bourjos from the leadoff spot.
We’re talking an OBP under .300 and one over .350. Now if the difference was .325 to .30 and the candidates were Bourjos and Abreu, I pick Bourjos every time because of what he can do on the basepaths. But we’re going to have to see a lot more from him before we go down that road.
Right now, I’d say Abreu’s as effective of a leadoff hitter as we have, mostly because his only competition is Aybar, Bourjos and Kendrick. However, should Crawford come here, he’d be the most effective leadoff hitter on the team. That doesn’t mean he’ll bat leadoff, we’ve all heard for a hwile now he prefers not to bat leadoff. All I’m saying is that he makes a better leadoff hitter than Abreu based on their 2010 stats.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
so lemme get this straight
you went from
As far as Abreu at leadoff, it’s a freakin’ AWFUL idea..Bobby Abreu’s not that player anymore.
to
Right now, I’d say Abreu’s as effective of a leadoff hitter as we have
I don’t get it
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 26, 2010 4:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes I was going to address that....
It is an awful idea, but Aybar and Bourjos are even worse ideas. Abreu’s not a good leadoff hitter but he’s the best we have. I think he’s a mediocre #2 hitter.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
ya Id go no on Furcal too.
Id much rather stick with an evil we know then an evil we don’t if its just between those two.
Only dodgers that have my interest are Kemp or Ethier really.
by (!ts_a_C.A._thing) on Nov 24, 2010 10:36 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Just read all of the comments above...
very exciting and I noticed a certain Halowood received a booty beating from a gang of enthusiatic HHers. I was impressed how throughout the thread Halowood stuck to his argument and didn’t use a single sabermetric argument. All I can say is Halowood have an enjoyable Thanksgiving and I hope this will blow over by next week.
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 24, 2010 10:30 PM PST reply actions
gotta fight for what you believe in.
We’ve all said somethings that the crowd didn’t agree with before like back before the trade deadline when I was saying we should trade for Matt Kemp. I threw a nice argument out there and got raped on it. Now this thread comes up and I’m thinking “Awww you MotherFu*kers!” Lol…
Just like I did maybe Halowood can one day soon look back and laugh at all the dumbasses who were wrong when he was right.
by (!ts_a_C.A._thing) on Nov 24, 2010 10:43 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
after reading this comment
I’d say you’re due for another good raping
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 25, 2010 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
youd enjoy that wouldn't you?
Just like the old days, except I’m not your celly bitch so turn your sights away from my ass you homo.
by (!ts_a_C.A._thing) on Nov 25, 2010 11:18 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Oh I will enjoy it.
I gave up on fighting the good fight, but rest assured if I’m right, I’m gonna unleash hell on those stat heads. Letting their minds be warped, just pathetic.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
i wouldnt really call what you did
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 25, 2010 11:08 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
.....?
Guess he’s had more then 2pintsofbooze already and passed out before he could finish his comment.
Either that or the line just started for dinner in skidrow and he had to run. Lol
by (!ts_a_C.A._thing) on Nov 25, 2010 11:23 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
damn phone
Fuck it, its not worth it anyways.
Happy thanksgiving everyone!
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 25, 2010 11:28 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
buy a new one then you broke bitch.
Haha.
Btw the phone doesn’t do anything that the dumbass controling it doesn’t tell it to do.
by (!ts_a_C.A._thing) on Nov 25, 2010 11:43 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
ummmmm
Go fuck yourself
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 25, 2010 12:12 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 4 recs
So once again
Merely disagreeing with you makes one “warped” and “pathetic.” I’m glad you have the world all figured out, because a world full of new things to learn would be just too scary and confusing for you. Stay inside, it’s safer there.
by Suboptimal on Nov 25, 2010 8:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So me disagreeing with you means I have the whole world figured out and that the outside world is scary?
I dunno whether to call it irony, hypocracy, tell you you’re guilty of the same thing or just call you a douche, but it’s clear you need to look in the mirror.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
My own personal spell-check linkbruin.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I've never read anyone comment here opposing getting Kemp.
The closest anyone has ever said is that the dodgers would be unlikely to trade him or unlikely to trade him to us.
Warning: The message above may or may not contain sarcasm. Read and interpret at your own risk.
by snowhor on Nov 25, 2010 3:52 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Should I oppose it just so I can make more enemies?
No…can’t do it. He’s too good to oppose.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
nice but
I hope the red Guy doesn’t represent the angels off season.
by (!ts_a_C.A._thing) on Nov 25, 2010 11:47 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
This has been an interesting thread to read
The antipathy has at times been uncomfortable and entertaining at the same time. Kinda like watching episodes of the Office where Dwight (Halowood) makes pronouncements that set up Jim and the rest of the office (Turk’s Teeth, mattwelch, Suboptimal, Rev, on and on and on and on) to make him look more and more foolish. It makes you cringe and laugh. I do, however, think my two favorite posts are by mattwelch:
Nice post, thanks for it
by mattwelch on Nov 23, 2010 11:52 PM EST reply actions
and
Fuck off
by mattwelch on Nov 24, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
What a difference a day makes.
Thanks everyone
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
by Moondoggy on Nov 26, 2010 12:19 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
This argument is ridiculous
I would never trade Napoli for Kalish that is f-ing ludicrous. I know that is not the point of this thread but Kalish is nothing special. If you are going to mine stats to find something “useful” for the team leave Napoli out of the discussion. He is valuable now.
Reggie Willits: The non-tender candidate of my dreams.
I think the suggestion is Napoli and Moore for Ellsbury
that would be useful to the team considering its need for a leadoff bat.
by AlohaHalofan on Nov 26, 2010 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
Hey guys, whats going on in this thread?
{Takes a moment to read the shitstorm above}
Hrmm. I see the problem here. See the best way to deal with these threads is what I call Phi’s Five.
1- Always picture Halowood like this at a keyboard before replying to his posts:
Studies have shown it decreases angry replies that only feed the troll known as Halowood by 643%.
2- If you find it 100% needed to get in a post war with him always just throw out random insults and avoid facts. See, Halowood doesn’t actually respond to facts or logic, he just counters with insane psycho-babble and personal comments. If you play his game, but better, he usually ends up looking like this:
So instead of trying to out think him, just out bullshit him if you really feel the need.
3- Feel free to send this thread and the others we have on the main site to LAA Insider and ask them why they let this guy publish stuff on their website. I mean seriously, wow. If they had any decency they would read this stuff and be like:
Get off your site now, scoundrel.
4- Never let one or two posts trick you into thinking Halowood is a cool guy. See, if you get fooled into thinking he is ok, you will just get burned in the long run. You have to realize that Halowood ALWAYS thinks of himself like this:
But in reality he is more like one of these guys:
5- Get Kemp, he is just the more attractive player. Gotta keep the clubhouse full of young hotties in the departure of Napoli, come on now.
Sold
No Homo
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Nov 26, 2010 5:33 PM PST reply actions 12 recs
I dont THINK this violates any rules, and I promise to keep large posts full of random shit to a minimum.
But I had to. Sorry Rev, MW, etc if I did something horribly wrong.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
only game threds is it a problem
when people post in the game thread it is time sensitive and the gifs/jpegs clog shit up and slow a time sensitive endeavor off… for posts like this it is quite alright.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 27, 2010 12:27 AM PST up reply actions
Dayuuuum!
Shall we provide the cross for Halowood now, or should we make him construct it himself.
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 26, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
And here I thought the awesomeness of this thread was over
I don’t even hate Halowood but damn, Well done.
BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS BOURJOS
See what I'm talking bou Subop?
Phislamma I expected nothing less out of you, hate on Halowood, posts pictures, try to be funny, yeah it’ your M.O. and you do it well. So this one isn’t even directed at you. This is about that victimization shit, me trying to play the victim. LOL I mean come on, if this isn’t burning me at the stake than what isn’t?
I’ll just sum it all up right here. Crawford is better than Beltre. Crawford is a better leadoff hitter than Dunn. Ryan Kalish is not better than Jason Heyward. Call me as crazy as you want, but next year if/when I’m right, I’m going to remind a lot of knuckleheads of how stupid they became during the last offseason.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Correction crawford is better than Abreu, but sure I guess you could add Beltre to it.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Whats funny is this is the backround on my ATM card
True story.
Now I get to think of Halowood everytime I buy some new shit I dont need.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
I can haz internet haters?
I love this place!
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 26, 2010 9:55 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, I dont hate Halowood
that would take energy. I just remind him to not take himself so seriously.
With flame posts.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
It sure beats waiting for something to happen on the hot stove doesn't it?
"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third"
Tommy Lasorda on catcher Mike Scioscia
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 26, 2010 11:25 PM PST up reply actions
Truthfully, yeah.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
but what is your PIN #
on that pretty twinkly card.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 27, 2010 12:28 AM PST up reply actions
I Love HH
I Love PhiSlamma
" With Haren bolstering the rotation, the Angels are set up beautifully for 2011"- Another East coast biased reporter
by Halos2011champs on Nov 27, 2010 5:11 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
*standing and applauding*
best post I’ve ever seen on this site
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and of course I fail in my reply
this was meant for phislammas post
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 26, 2010 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
best reply fail ever on this site.
I’m sitting and farting
by Rev Halofan on Nov 27, 2010 12:28 AM PST up reply actions
sitting and farting?
I thought the Rev only did that when a good looking girl walked by?
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by 2pintsofbooze on Nov 27, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
after spending a week in Delhi recently
sitting and farting is a very dangerous activity
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
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