Saunders is a Winner
by dannyras on Feb 1, 2010 12:29 AM PST
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PrintI love how our Angels win. It's what we do. Doubters--mostly sabermetricians, writers at ESPN, and the like--underestimate us year-after-year, choosing instead to side with the "numbers" rather than their gut, which reminds them that any team Scioscia puts on the field will find a way to win. If there's anything that this decade of Angels baseball has shown us, it's that--time and time again--we overachieve the projections and win (For proof, check out our friend over at MonkeyWithAHalo's article from last week where he analyzed the accuracy of the WAR projections in the AL West over the past few years).
During the Scioscia Era, we have dozens of examples of players whose performances exceed pre-season expectations, and many of which who repeat their "surprising" results.
Some of these are obvious, such as former Angels SS David Eckstein. So what he's 5'7" and "too small" to play shortstop? Anyone who has actually watched him play has seen that he possess something different, and that most importantly, he wins--a fact which I'm sure his two World Series rings and World Series MVP trophy remind him daily. Darin Erstad, Scott Spiezio, Kendry Morales, Chone Figgins, and Torii Hunter ("show some nuts") have all silenced doubters with their play, if some of them only did so for a season (sorry Spiez).
But in my view, no current Angel better exemplifies this than the unassuming Joe Saunders. He is not an overpowering pitcher, his stuff is considered mediocre by most, he's not flashy by any means, and in the current rotation, he probably should not be any higher than a number 4 or 5 starter. But like Eck and co., Saundo wins.
In his first two full years in the Majors, Saunders has posted winning records of 17-7 (2008), and 16-7 (2009), which elevated his career winning percentage to .686 (48-22). In fact, Saunders has never had a losing record at any level of professional play. Ever. Certainly, this pattern can't always be attributed to the players around him, and should consequently not be dismissed as a statistic of lesser import. How do you earn the WS title? Wins. Pure and simple.
Somehow, even if it's inexplicable to the number crunchers, Saunders finds a way to keep his team in a position where they can do exactly that, and isn't that what the game is all about? Sure Saundo might not be a Josh Beckett (thankfully!) or a Felix Hernandez, but he is not afraid to compete against anyone--as he showed on May 10, 2009 against Zack Greinke, and in the 2009 ALCS in New York--and he deserves way more credit than he receives.
Saunders exemplifies the style of play that continues to stump the likes of Rob Neyer and propel the Angels past their WAR and PECOTA projections and into the playoffs year after year. Good thing we have him through 2012!
[ Just to be clear, I am not suggesting that we throw out all sabermetrics as a means of analyzing this game we love so much, nor am I suggesting that because Matt Palmer has the best winning % on the team that he should be our opening day starter. I am suggesting, however, that we take a step back and consider the intangibles that set our Angels apart from the anemic A's and remember that this is a game involving not only the body, but also the heart which is much harder to quantify. ]
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Poppin' the postin' cherry!
I for one appreciate your first post. I love Saunders. Me and my family and friends lovingly refer to him as Junkyard Joe, for no other reason than that it has a nice ring to it. It bums me out that he is not only under appreciated in the baseball world at large, but even in our own Halosphere. He’s sort the pitcher’s version of Garret Anderson. But maybe he prefers it that way, flying under the radar. My hope is that, 20 quiet years will go by, and he’ll unassumingly have racked up 300 wins.
No matter what happens from here on, it has been a great season.
So to paraphrase
When given the tools to make a proper assessment based on logic and reason, ignore them and go with your gut.
I agree that the Angels have been undervalued in the past and think they are again this year, but if you look at the totality of statistical analysis, it has completely re-vamped the game for the better. I can go on and on about bad major league players like Eckstein with multiple World Series rings because of the other players around them. I could also tell you with complete confidence that Joe Saunders would be a .500 pitcher at best if he had pitched for say the Pirates instead of the Angels. And as good a manager as Scioscia is, he needs good players to win.
Saunders is definitely a solid pitcher, but his ridiculous W-L record is almost entirely a product of the team around him when he pitches. And I wouldn’t say he’s unassuming. He’s not overpowering, but he does get a lot of ground-balls. Statistical analysis by way of sabermetrics shows that Saunders is a good pitcher with decent stuff despite what you might think looks “mediocre” and “not flashy.”
And Eckstein just sucks dude. He has no range or arm at SS and was a bad hitter. I respect the guy for what he has been able to accomplish given the fact that he has had to overcome disease (oh wait, he hasn’t?). Other short guys like Figgins and Pedroia are so much better than Eckstein its ridiculous.
by Spird on Feb 1, 2010 1:38 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
unrec'd
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
by angels4adam on Feb 1, 2010 5:14 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
Didn't Neyer pick the Mariners to win the West in '08?
And they ended up losing 101 games?
The fact is there is more to baseball than stats. The Mariners collapsed and all that they were supposed to achieve went up in smoke. The Tigers demonstrated the same in ’08 with their upgraded offense that was supposed to drive in as many as 1000 runs, but instead finished dead last in the hardly powerhouse AL Central.
I was lucky enough to be at game 6 of the World Series in’02 and I think you’ll agree that something magical was going on there (I use that word deliberately). A team made up of several AAA-level players beat the 103-win Yankees, scrappy Twins, and Goliath himself’s Giants. And of all people Scott Spiezio got the big hit! And against perhaps the most dominant closer of ’02 in Rob Nen.
Isn’t this the reason we love the Halos? We aren’t supposed to win as many games as we do but we find a way, and it’s most likely due to Scioscia’s managing and the play of winners like Joe Saunders.
Missing Garret "Groundout" Anderson
Or as HaloDutch once said
“Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can.”
Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch
C'mon now
at least get the pitcher who served up Spiezio’s homer right. This is Angels lore!
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Feb 1, 2010 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
Spird, would you mind posting a photo of yourself
so that we can use it as the permanent “FAIL?”
“And (SPIRD) just sucks dude. He has no range or arm at all and was as equally bad in the sack. I respect the guy for what he has been able to accomplish given the fact that he has had to overcome venereal disease (oh wait, he hasn’t?) and a miniscule schlong. Other short guys like Figgins and Pedroia are so much better than (SPIRD) its ridiculous.”
— Spird’s wife, on OVER THE MONSTER
Thank you, Omar Minaya! Thank you, Mets (Vaughn, GMJ) AGAIN!
by PieceOfAase on Feb 1, 2010 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
A Spird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
Old enough to discern that your Eckstein writeup was for shit!
Thank you, Omar Minaya! Thank you, Mets (Vaughn, GMJ) AGAIN!
by PieceOfAase on Feb 1, 2010 9:12 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I do not understand the extreme negative reaction to this post
He is absolutely correct.
Saunders gets incredible run support when he pitches, which is the major factor in his win %, more so than his actual pitching ability. The same goes for Palmer. These pitchers aren’t gutsy winners who have some magical ability to “gut out wins” and channel some power from Sosh’s ability to chemistry-ify.
Take a look at Escobar in 06 (I think it was I am far too lazy to check) who was a sub .500 pitcher yet had very good controllable pitching stats. His run support just sucked.
Being a “winner” in a team sport that relies entirely on things that you cant control coming through means pretty much nothing. Why we are even discussing wins as some sort of barometer of ability is mind boggling. Get over wins, stop assuming that Saunders is some sort of magic baseball winning genie because he has the ability to be a average left handed pitcher while his offense scores 6 runs a game for him.
You also cannot say that Saunders is good and Palmer isnt. They benefit from the same circumstances, they are in the same boat.
In regards to Eckstein, he just isnt that good. Sorry.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Feb 1, 2010 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Saunders- the Left hander with the most wins over the last two years
That has to go for something more than luck.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 1, 2010 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
No, thats entirely what it is
Getting lucky with how many runs his offense scores behind him.
You could say Greinke is the anti-Saunders.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Eh, thats the point of the post though
Saunders is good enough to win those games. I mean, who cares if the angels win 15-14 or 1-0? A win is a win and how many times do the angels score 6 or 7 runs and lose because Santana or Lackey had a meltdown? Saunders, whether it is luck, or grit, or whatever, is able to keep the angels in the games. Its not to say I wouldnt trade him for halladay or lee or whatever other ace may be out there, but I dont worry with him on the mound.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 1, 2010 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
The thing is
you WILL start worrying about him if the Angels stop scoring so many runs for him. All it would take is one season where he gets average or below league average run support and you will see him dip below .500.
To make myself clear:
Saunders ability to win games rests solely on the Angels offense ability to score runs. If the Angels lose that ability, Saunders will not win games. Therefore the wins that you are all focusing on are not a direct product of Saunders, but a product of the team
A Shaman who does rain dances in the rain forest is going to be viewed as Godlike. Move the same Rain Doctor to Arizona and suddenly he isnt as awesome. Like Saunders, the Shaman is a product of his environment, not vice-versa.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Plus...
…if that shaman is doing his rain dancing during the rainy season, he will be even more godlike. Kind of like having the Angels score runs during the first half of a baseball game, rather than the back half.
But, to your main point: “Saunders ability to win games rests solely on the Angels offense ability to score runs.” That is not quite correct. Even if the Angels have the ability to score runs, AND they execute on that ability, AND they execute on that ability sufficient to hand Saunders the lead, Saunders still DOES contribute to his win by holding that lead until he hands the ball over to another pitcher. So it is not solely in the hands of teammates. Saunders does play a role within the greater team fabric. He is not completely isolated from that.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
I agree
My point is that the team is not winning in spite of Saunders, but more Saunders is winning because of his team.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Concur, closely enough.
I would have stated it that Saunders is winning along with his team, but he is the only individual player getting the +1 for some odd reason that is no longer meaningful.
And all this, of course, completely ignoring the vagaries of the impact that the home plate umpire has the effectiveness of any particular pitcher in any particular game.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
I guess he didnt use his magic ability enough to get the Angels to score 5 more runs.
Which pitch does he throw that scores runs again?
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Yeah, that sucked. :-)
Like I said, I’d trade him for an ace anyday. Until then, I’m cool with him.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 1, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
Eckstein
If you’re going to say that the Angels were somehow geniuses for recognizing the talent of David Eckstein in 2002, then does that make them idiots for basically giving up on Eckstein? Based on this reasoning, the Padres are possibly the smartest team in the Majors, right now.
David Eckstein was basically lightning in a bottle. He was like so many marginal major leaguers who got hot at the right time, made the most of his opportunity, and helped his team.
It’s this kind of logic that has led many Halo fans to embrace the mediocrity of Reggie Willits, a smallish player, with marginal talent, who managed to parlay that talent into one good effort on a part time basis during one season played.
In some respect, I will say that the 2002 Halos were the embodiment of lightning in a bottle and they are one of the reasons, why no matter how good the Red Sox and Yankees are on paper, you can’t just hand them the pennant. Winning a pennant is ultimately, about getting hot for 3-4 weeks in October. On paper, the 2002 club wasn’t that great, but they showed that solid fundamentals, timely hitting and a good bullpen can take you far.
As far as Saunders, he’s a solid #3 starter. That’s what he is. He’s not a #1 or even a #2. Nothing to be ashamed of. A solid #3 starter on a pennant contender is nothing to sneeze at. Unfortunately, one could argue that he’s now our #2. Basically, means that he’s going to have to step it up. Here’s hoping that he does.
by righteous halo on Feb 1, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
Funny how Eckstein managed to bottle lightning TWICE
;)
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Feb 1, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Thrice
He also won a college world series.
Some dudes have a winning makeup and approach. Period. If they’re on a shitty team they will make that team slightly less shitty. On a good team, they make them even better.
Eckstein was always the smartest player on the field.
by tolbs1010 on Feb 2, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
"Eckstein was always the smartest player on the field."
………………………….BINGO…………………………!
Thank you, Omar Minaya! Thank you, Mets (Vaughn, GMJ) AGAIN!
because at the end of the season, they dont give out fantasy awards for random stats
Its Wins that get you to the playoffs and take the World Series Trophy home.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 1, 2010 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
Wins aren't random...
But pitcher’s have limited control over whether they get them or not. BTW, I think Saunders is a very good pitcher, but not because of his W-L record.
You are confusing team wins
which are concrete and a pitchers win total which is non-indicative of that players ability.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Not confusing, just not discounting
I get pitchers wins dont really make sense and arent a true indicator of ability but what is then? You pitch different with a lead than when your behind, so how do you account for that? Do you adjust for ERA with a lead or ERA when losing? Do you try and factor strength of opponents in? At some point you have to take the good with the bad and consider it a level enough playing field.
Anyway, the fact remains that a pitcher starts around 30 games a year, and Saunders has won a significant- meaning he beat the team average- amount of his starts for the two years he has been a full time starter on the Angels. I would expect to see more 15+ game winners on our team if Joe is so average.
If the guy goes out 31 times and pitches well enough to get a “win” in 17 of those, thats 17 games the angels have locked up before he leaves the field. You can attribute it to offense or defense or luck or whatever, but last year the angels won 20 of his 31 starts. That coupled with the fact that only in 7 of those 31 games did Joe pitch bad enough to get tagged with a loss.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 1, 2010 7:20 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, but saying he'll definitely continue this trend because of the small sample size of two seasons isn't the greatest way to predict how well he'll do in the future.
We can also say, that the team was 0-2 in games he started this year in the ALCS and then conclude he’s not a big-time pitcher who can’t be depended on when it counts. This would be equally stupid.
Gotta disagree with this
Saunders is not winning because of the offense. In his wins his stat line is pretty damn good.
R.I.P. King Ad-Rock #34
by Seik1177 on Feb 1, 2010 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Good point, but...
Obviously he’s going to pitch better in wins. If you look at any pitcher over a statistically significant amount of time, they are going to pitch substantially better in wins.
Saunders might actually pitch better in wins than most pitchers and that certainly accounts for part of the story. However, I still think that if he had pitched for the Pirates and put up those numbers, you’re looking at 10 less W’s in the stat column and more losses replacing a couple of W’s and a few more no decisions. He’d still be a .500 pitcher. That being said, a .500 pitcher on the Pirates is still a pretty good pitcher.
I agree with you about the wins
but the reason for this post was to show that Saunders deserved to win those games & wasn’t being carried by the offense as opposed to Matt Palmer who was “lucky” the offense was clicking in his starts
R.I.P. King Ad-Rock #34
I still don't quite agree...
I agree that Palmer’s record was a lot luckier than Saunders, but despite Saunder’s stellar ERA in his wins, I guarantee you that there were a few of those wins that he absolutely would not have gotten on other teams. Every pitcher has games where they pitch well, but do not get a W and this would happen much more frequently on another team.
Moreover, Saunders definitely has gotten wins in games that he hasn’t pitched well in (as have all pitchers who have played as long as him, but Saunders has won more of these games than he would if he played for another team). Point is that Saunders is good, but not as good as his record. Look up ANY pitcher that has been a regular starter for the past 4 years and you will find the same splits in their wins and losses.
As an addendum...
The very first pitcher I looked up was Jered Weaver. In wins, his ERA is 2.03 for his career. In losses, 6.72.
So....are you saying Weaver isn't good either?
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
No...
Both pitchers are good…WTF are you talking about?
This entire thread,
you’ve been talking about how Saunders is over-rated, and it’s run support that got him all his wins.
Saunders is definitely a solid pitcher, but his ridiculous W-L record is almost entirely a product of the team around him when he pitches.
In the games he’s won, he could’ve gotten the win with only two runs of support most of the time, hence the 1.95 ERA. The dude just pitches as good as he has to. What more do you want from a starter? He puts us in a position to win almost every time he takes the mound
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
You got me all wrong
All I said was that his W-L record is better because of the run-support he gets. I’ve said about 200 times I think he is a good pitcher. I don’t think he’s overrated either because I think most people have enough sense to look past his W-L record and see that he is a solid No. 3-4 starter on any team.
The cited statistic is very misleading. You could say that about any pitcher. I’m serious. Look up any pitcher that has started more than 60 games in their career. The splits btw. their wins and losses will all be similar and their statistics in their wins will make them look like the best pitchers on the face of the planet. I’ve only looked up two pitchers and I can tell you that with absolute certainty. If Saunders was 35-35 in his career, his stat-line in wins would be around the same as it is now.
I've been known to say around here...
…that I feel that any of the trio of Weaver, Kazmir or Santana could break out to true #1 status this year…
…but to be really clear, Saunders, I think, has the potential to be a #2 or #3 consistently. He doesn’t have “ace” stuff, but he gets the job done, and I’m totally confident he’ll continue to do so if healthy.
Time to see what Wood's got!
Glad to have Joe on the Angels
I love it when anyone takes the time to recognize my favorite Angels pitcher! Joe has skills and the Angels made him a first round draft pick (12th overall) in 2002. This could be a big year for Saunders; he has a chance to prove a lot of doubters wrong. I believe he’ll do exactly that. When he’s healthy, he’s absolutely solid. Thanks for posting this danyras!
http://twitter.com/truegrich
Love the Colonel.......
he can lead us to battle any day!
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Feb 1, 2010 9:22 AM PST reply actions
Wins are a good thing...
Being 48-22 for your career is a good thing. It’s time some people looked at it as something positive rather than just casting it aside as a footnote. Saunders doesn’t pitch in Pittsburgh. He pitches for the Angels. Who cares what kind of record he would have pitching somewhere else. That’s a point not even worth discussing unless you want to rank and compare him to other ptichers. All I care about is that he wins games for the Angels and for most baseball fans, that’s what it’s all about.
http://twitter.com/truegrich
As an Angels fan...
I love Saunders and his wins.
As a baseball fan who recognizes the worthlessness of “wins” as a statistic…
I still love Saunders and his wins.
I'm with you, Saunders is a winner
He really just seems like the kinda guy that goes out and does whatever he must to win. Need a shutout, done. Give him some room, he’s not gonna stress, he’ll give up some runs, but still win. 1st and 3rd with no one out, strikeout time.
I’d take joe on the mound any day.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 1, 2010 12:34 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I wish I could love wins as much as I used to. I really, really do.
But with the explosion of situational pitching roles and the way that game results can manifest themselves randomly throughout the course of a game, well, I just can’t.
They are fun to look at, and more fun when they appear to be in your favor, but they are almost a happy accident anymore.
Yeah, I credit a guy like Saunders with being pretty damned good inasmuch as he did the job expected of him enough times to put or kept his team into contention enough times during the first half of enough games so that he left the game while his team still had the lead. As weak as that support sounds, it is meaningful that most other pitchers cannot say the same. But how meaningful? I will leave that to younger, fresher, minds.
Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.
I love wins
any way you can get ‘em.
Some folks just know how to freakin’ win…
The Gods, fate, Lady Luck, what have you, are/is on their side. Maybe it’s their kharma…maybe it’s…magic…(oh, sorry, I already beat that one to death…)
Nolan Ryan was a loser
Just 138-121 as an Angel? To hell with that guy. He might be able to throw a no-hitter, but he didn’t know how to win.
I gave up on pitcher won-lost records during the 1987 season
That was the year Ryan was 1st in strikeouts and 1st in ERA, but he had an 8-16. I recall discussions I had with friends during that season about how it was total bull*hit that Ryan had such an awful W-L record.
by XYZ123 on Feb 2, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm happy Colonel is on my team!
For whatever “intangible” or “tangible” reasons, I enjoy watching the guy pitch.
Here’s to a healthy 2010 Joe!
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
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