if you wanna see them, look at the spreadsheet. I used absolutely no scientific reasoning behind my picks, just gut feeling..

Suck it, Neyer!

At least I think it is the magic number.

My Playoff picks:

AL West: Angels
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Yankees
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Central: Cardinals
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Mets

…thank you for doing this. i’m going to laugh really hard when random Angel’s fans nail the predictions better than all the sophisticated systems.

Most of them dont even make sense, if I come anywhere close to winning I deserve a job at ESPN

I picked the Doyers behind the Giants and Rockies. God, I hope I’m right.

~!

My Playoff picks:

AL West: Angels
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Yankees
AL Wild Card: Boston

NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Dodgers

I really went out on a limb there and took a chance huh….

Sometimes you have to go with your gut.

The Pirates will win 135 games this year and face the Royals who will win 128 in a classic World Series

Twins have a big year!

first round of blind guesses was at 2429, so i gave one more W to the Halos.

I picked the same AL playoff teams in the same order as last year, but I took the Marlins in the WC with the Rockies taking the West.

The big question is if this is the year the Reds stop just being trendy to pick to do well.

Be sure to take the average when this is all done. My money is that the average does better than 98% of us.

AL
Angels
Twins
Yankees
Rays WC

NL
San Francisco
Cubs
Phillies
Cardinals WC

The Pirates will surprise everybody this year….

Wild Cards:
AL – Rangers
NL – Braves

ALDS Matchups:
First Series – Angels v. White Sox
Second Series – Yankees v. Rangers

NLDS Matchups:
First Series – Phillies v. Dodgers
Second Series – Cardinals v. Braves

What a great use of 5 mins

done

April 4 Spring Opening Day Can’t Wait!

it seems improbably that the angels will win the division for 4 years in a row, but I cant bring myself to think that any of the other teams are good enough to challenge us for the crown.
The mariners may win 2 of every 5 games by a score of 1-0 when felix and lee pitch but will lose the next 3 games 5-1 with that weak ass offense. Seriously, where are the runs gonna come from? Griffey will break down by June and Guillen will implode by July.
Same goes for the A’s. How are they going to score runs? They may win some games 1-0 or 2-1 but if the other team scores more than 2 runs, I’d bet they lose 90% of the games.
The rangers intrigue me, they could be good this year- or they could flop. I personally bet they do pretty well until the wheels fall off in late august/ september. Vlad will break down and injuries will decimate their hopes. Maybe Ryan and co. will spend a ton at the deadline to get help, but I’d bet it comes at the expense of their farm system. This will hurt their chances at building the kind of teams the angels have for the past few years- young solid teams built from within to keep costs down- adding necessary FA’s to fill one or two gaps.
Anyway, I see the angels battling it out and clinching the west around Sept 24th. They dont have the “stars” the experts like to see, but this is a team built to score runs, and keep the other team from doing so. No real “all-stars” but no weaknesses either.

Have been submitted

If enough folks make picks, there should surely be enough data to create a statistical comparison of “random-assed-guesswork-by-bleacher-rats” versus the various formal projections. The range of guesses should be chartable into bell curves of expected wins for each team which, to be topical, could be mapped against the first order and second order deviations of PECOTA (well, the corrected PECOTA numbers, at least).

IF (and I cannot over-emphasize the IF here) the results are similar then, when all is said and done, something like PECOTA adds no new information. That kind of result might actually open up a line of possible inquiry that suggests that the designers of the various projection methods may have inadvertently created a mathematical representation that reinforces what they already know, rather than a system to create new information that predicts what is currently unknowable. That would be huge.

(This brain fart has been sponsored by the fact that scottnak already eliminated 50.6% of all possible options based on his own personal experience.)

So I just did under the name “LAST YEAR’S NUMBERS”

I’d love that to win.

I aubmitted picks, hit enter, got “your’re not done yet”. Had omitted the Reds in the NL Central. Paged back, did it again. Same. Paged back, did it again, same. Hit refresh, all picks wiped out. Oh well ………….

scottnak, can you provide a link to the picks, so I can verify mine equal the magic number?

Man it was hard but i got it done.

Cant Wait!

and 11 more in the postseason

Giants in the West, Cubs in the Central, Phils in the East, Cards WC

we come up short yet again, but still end up praising Artie. Whatever.

Tex 87
M’s 86
A’s 77

its going to be close this year in the AL West

Angels
Tigre’s
Rays
W/C = Yanks

Rock’s
Brewers
Fish
W/C = Phil’s

Bah.

Done.

Champ!

Can’t wait for the season to start

Wild guesses completed.

Done

…calculate R-squared…
…collate the divisional totals…
…wipe away the merlot stains…

…and DONE!

but made the deadline

Angels, Twins, Yankees
WC: Red Sox

Giants, Cardinals, Phillies
WC: Cubs