Las Vegas not in Agreement with Baseball Prospectus

by ArchAngel_7 on Feb 28, 2010 4:24 PM PST

With all the projections from Baseball Prospectus and others in the National media predicting the demise of the Angels, it is interesting to see that the only people who put their money where their mouth is, the Las Vegas odds makers, have a different take on the up coming season. The betting line for the 2010 season looks a little more like what we angel fans have been saying all along.

MLB
2010 World Series Updated Feb. 2, 2010
Team	Open	Current
N.Y. Yankees	3/1	14/5
Boston	13/2	11/2
Philadelphia	13/2	6/1
L.A. Angels	17/2	14/1
Detroit	20/1	24/1
Seattle	125/1	50/1
Arizona	75/1	60/1
Toronto	75/1	125/1
St. Louis	8/1
L.A. Dodgers	9/1
Tampa Bay	11/1
Chi. White Sox	12/1
Atlanta	12/1
Chi. Cubs	14/1
Colorado	20/1
N.Y. Mets	20/1
San Francisco	30/1
Texas	30/1
Minnesota	30/1
Florida	30/1
Milwaukee	50/1
Houston	75/1
Baltimore	100/1
Cincinnati	100/1
Oakland	125/1
Kansas City	150/1
Pittsburgh	150/1
San Diego	200/1
Washington	200/1
Cleveland	200/1

Clearly, Las Vegas isn’t predicting an Angels collapse this year.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

well, actually

as a frequent gambler (This is a cry for help people)
Vegas will try to goat you into bets, making it seems so obvious that they are wrong that you just have to put down money. I remember a couple of years ago the Cubs were only supposed to win, according to vegas, 84 games. This was coming off the Steve Bartman year I believe and everyone thought that they would win 100 games so lots of money was put on the over… Vegas made a lot of money.
I am not saying I agree that the Angels will win under 90 games, I am just saying that more goes into odds making than meets the eye.

My prediction as of 12-11-2009- Wood .265 avg, 20 HRs 70 RBIs and an above average glove at 3b

by Sinatrasratpack on Feb 28, 2010 9:40 AM PST reply actions

the bias is based on the fanbase

Lotta Cubs fans = lotta bets (sentimental bets, not based on analysis), which means the house has to protect itself (in case a miracle Cubs win occurs) and the odds are lowered, which appear to reflect a team’s chances being better than they are, but in this case they are only reflecting the casino’s need to avoid making a huge payout based on the true odds were the sentimentalists to be right.

I was in Vegas in June of 1991 when the Twins and Braves were getting hot and their odds to win the world series were being lowered, the Twins form 100-1 to 85-1 and the Braves from 80-1 to 60-1. No fan bases for either of them but as they start to emerge from the pack a few bets at the high odds will make the bookies take a second look – not at the team’s chances, but at the casino’s exposure.

by Rev Halofan on Feb 28, 2010 9:49 AM PST up reply actions

Totally Agree

It seems as though you are going to get poor odds betting on any big market team with a strong fan base to win the W.S.

Too many fans wanting to make that feel good bet shifting the line far away from the ‘real odds’.

by LosAngel on Feb 28, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions

I think you nailed it here

with the bet-from-the-heart part. No question that sports book is a low-margin business, but Vegas makes their money on the uninformed fan. Not saying they aren’t right, but it really does seem to me the division is a lot tighter than last year, at least, and this could be the beginning of a rollback for the Angels.

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Mar 1, 2010 2:36 PM PST up reply actions

Vegas is Overrated

Go BP

by eyespy on Feb 28, 2010 12:10 PM PST reply actions

I hope you are kidding?

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Feb 28, 2010 3:27 PM PST up reply actions

I just want to see it proven between the white lines

by eyespy on Mar 1, 2010 9:53 AM PST up reply actions

Try every year

BP projections are fucking terrible

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Mar 3, 2010 2:08 PM PST up reply actions

I've been following these too...

…since they opened (mostly because of my bad past with gambling – I’m recovered :P).

As mentioned, there are many factors as to why the odds are what they are, but also…in the end of the day, it does show where money is going and how it’s going. Good, bad, or indifferent.

The Angels opened as favorites OVER the Mariners to win the WS which obviously implies they need to win the West minus the chance of the WC coming out of the West.

The Angels are still favored over the Mariners but you can clearly see the effects or perception of the offseason moves and why the national bias is what it is.

Seattle more than doubled their odds while the Angels nearly halfed theirs. But I do agree if I were a betting man again, I still like the Angels to win the division (not necessarily the WS) over the Mariners, fan or not.

by RedFog on Feb 28, 2010 1:23 PM PST reply actions

interesting point about the divisions

The reason one would be advised to NOT bet on the Yankees or Red Sox is that either of them could be a strong team and not even make the playoffs.

by Rev Halofan on Feb 28, 2010 1:48 PM PST up reply actions

Yep...

And of course the WC is exactly that in this betting scenario. A true wild card.

For those doing the over/under in Vegas, it used to be one of my favorite bets and most distracting for the season.

I do feel the Angels will win less games this year not because they are not a better team than last year (I feel they are about the same, just different strengths/weaknesses)…

…but simply because they now have an additional ace to go up against in Seattle, an overall better team in Texas, etc. Those will eat into some wins but shouldn’t derail them from the division title IF all things are equal (injuries, player progression, etc.).

I think placing the Angels at about 84-85 wins is right about where I think they will finish along with the odds makers. Placing the Sox and Yanks at 94/94.5 is a bit high in my mind but this goes to what you said about highly optimistic fans on those respective teams and $$$ will do.

by RedFog on Feb 28, 2010 2:01 PM PST up reply actions

So you think the West Div Winner

goes like 84-78?

by SocalAngelFaninOC on Feb 28, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions

Well...

…I didn’t sit down and analyze every single game matchup, injury percentage potential, yadda yadda.

Just my gut tells me the Angels will be closer to the mid 80’s than the mid 90’s this season, but so will Texas and Seattle (at least low 80’s) and has the potential for a VERY tight race. I think the Sosh factor has them coming out on top again.

Obviously over such a long season and so many games, there are a bazillion variables that will affect it. But on paper, right now, yeah I think they will be giving up some wins as they will face some tougher pitching this year against the teams that will matter come the stretch (Sox, Mariners, etc.).

Our lack of a true currently recognized ace won’t show up until the playoffs, and hopefully one or more the guys really steps up their mental approach this year.

by RedFog on Feb 28, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions