Fear the Mariners?
by marshgr on Feb 6, 2010 9:18 PM PST
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I am concerned the Mariners have passed the Angels as the favorite to win the American League West. Below I break down each team and show why the Angels will have their hands full with the M's this year.
Bullpen: Even
Mariners - Closer (Aardsma) I would definitely take him over Fuentes or Rodney. Mark Lowe is an excellent set-up man and closer in waiting. Rowland-Smith could end up back in the pen if Bedard earns a slot in the rotation.
Angels - Major question marks at closer. Rodney and Fuentes are not the answer. However, I love Jepsen... Shields will be back and will be more than adequate, and Bulger provides additional depth. We will sorely miss Darren Oliver.
Starting Pitching: Slight Advantage to Seattle
Mariners - Obviously the Mariners have two studs at the top of their rotation in King Felix and Cliff Lee, but don't sleep on the rest of their rotation. The signing of Erik Bedard is definitely one which could yield significant benefits. Imagine a healthy Bedard as your 3rd starter! If Bedard does not return to his prior success, you still have Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell to fill your rotation.
Angels - We lack the firepower in the front of the rotation, but I feel we are stronger in the back-end. Weaver is still unproven as an ace and may struggle in that role. Scott Kazmir is a big question mark in my opinion; however, I expect 14+ wins and a sub-4 ERA. Ervin Santana is the key to our season (IMO). If we get the 15 win season and the confident, aggressive Santana we win the West. Saunders and Piniero are a nice way to round out the rotation.
Lineup: Advantage Angels
Mariners - Ichiro and Figgy form an electric pair at the top of the order. They should score a ton of runs IF (and it's a big one), Milton Bradley can keep his head on straight, Jose Lopez and Franklin Gutierrez continue to improve, and Ken Griffey can pull a healthy, productive season out of his behind. Bill Hall is a sleeper on this team who could contribute in a big way if he starts hot and earns playing time. He is a guy who is capable of huge numbers; however, is terribly inconsistent.
Angels: Questions... questions.... questions... However, I am optimistic we will have an above average offense. First of all I love Abreu, just wish we could find a way for him to hit in the 2-hole. So on to the questions...
#1 - Age, Matsui, Abreu and Hunter are all over 35. Experience? Yes. Decline? Possible
#2 - Will the real Kendry Morales please stand up? Sophomore slump or another .300, 30+, 100+ season. I would be on the later.
#3 - Is this Howie's breakout year? All signs point to yes. A huge second half and a #2 slot in the order.
#4 - Who will hit leadoff? Aybar? Izzy? Abreu?
#5 - Does Brandon Wood earn a starting role at 3B? If so, does that force Aybar in the leadoff role?a
#6 - Will Napoli's playing time be cut by the need to DH Matsui?
Prediction - We have six guys who will hit 20+ HRs (Abreu, Hunter, Morales, Rivera, Matsui and Naps), maybe 7 if Wood can breakout and get enough AB's. We have Howie Kendrick on the verge of a breakout season - 50 doubles and a .320+ average is not out of the question, our defense is solid as ever, and we have a great blend of veteran leadership and youthful energy.
I still say we are the favorite, but the M's are scary.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Scary? Nah.
I’m interested to see how well they do, but it takes more than “a team that might be nearly as good as us if things break their way” to scare me.
~Till the Halo burns out...
uhhhhh....
The Mariners traded Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays.
I'm into the pain...
by V-Hawk Angelorum on Feb 5, 2010 10:29 PM PST reply actions
Our infield defense is better than theirs
Wood/Izturis will not be a step down from Figgins. From what I’ve heard, Wood has very sound defense and his natural position is shortstop, even though he’s a power hitter. I can see him making a smooth transition into 3B.
Morales and HK/Izzy are all better than the respective Kotchman and Lopez in terms of UZR. Wilson did have the best UZR of all SS last season, but Aybar is improving and had a better Range Factor.
Their outfield is much better than ours defensively. Ichiro has huge range and a much better UZR than his Angel counterpart, Bobby Abreu. Gutierrez had the best Range and the best UZR of all qualified outfielders last season. Although, our Rivera is better than Langerhans defensively.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
M's were better in UZR last season than the Angels and have added a full season
of Jack Wilson, Figgins to replace Beltre, and Kotchman to replace Branyan.
M’s are a better defensive team.
Actually
Defense is a wash. The M’s may have had a better UZR than the halos had last year, but the Angels were better in ErrR, DPR and ARM (1st stab at advanced sabermetrics). And it’s a wash with the classic stats like FP, E, A and PO. Slyintine is correct, it’s a wash.
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
Tough call really.
-Kotchman is better defensively than Morales (who is no slouch). But will Kotchman be platooned with Garko? Morales is much better defensively than a Garko/Kotchman platoon.
-Off the top of my head, Kendrick is better than Lopez and so is Izturis.
-I’d have to give the nod to Wilson due to track record, but Ayabr is truely amazing. The other factor is that Wilson is often hurt with nagging injuries which may come into play during the season. I can’t see Hanahan or Figgins being better than Aybar at SS.
-Its amazing how much Figgins has improved at 3B during his time with the Angels and the Mariners will benefit from that. While possible, it wouldn’t be the safe bet to pick a rookie over a guy who has been one of the best at the position for the past few years.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Feb 6, 2010 5:23 PM PST up reply actions
Which is why I'm calling it a wash.
Their outfield IS better. But in the infield Morales is dare I say, is near Kotchman’s equal. Maybe not so much with the glove, but outside of that I’ve always felt like Kotch had “J.T. Snow” range (a step and a dive or it’s by him). And you’re right, if they have a Kotch/Garko platoon, advantage Halos. Aybar became top shelf last year when the routine plays actually became routine for him, he’s easily top 3 in the AL if not the ML and last year proved his durability.
And Wood isn’t new to 3B like Figgins was the last few years. Figgins only played 6 total games at 3B in the minors and has been entrenched there the last few years. Wood has been entrenched at 3B in AA and AAA for the same amount of time after switching from SS. Figgy’s range factor is better than Wood’s has been, but Wood is also much taller and the balls that Figgy has to dive for, Wood does not. It might not be this year, but I truly believe that by next year at the latest, Wood is Figgy’s equal, mark my words.
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
Im not sure why you are calling it a wash given that the M's defenders were significantly
superior defensively to Anaheim’s last season. And what changes have been made?
1)Figgins for Beltre… small dropoff for M’s but still in excellent shape 13 to +18
2)Wilson for Betancourt… Betancourt is one of the worst defenders at SS in baseball, and the M’s now have the best defender for a full season
3)Kotchman for Branyan… This is adding a +8 type glove (11 last yr) for a guy who was +0 last season.
M’s have upgraded their league best defense.
Angles have done what? Wood for Figgins? Figgins was +18 in UZR/150 last season. Wood would have to be an elite defender in 2010 to match that defensive production.
You want to say that Aybar, Kendrick, and Morales are all going to improve their defense from last year enough to make up the difference? Not likely, but even if you go by that assumption, the Angels are still well behind the M’s projected defensive numbers.
by Rudy4three on Feb 8, 2010 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
OK
1.)You’ve added Figgy, great glove. We’re bringing up Wood, who by all accounts is a slick fielding, soft handed strong armed 3B.
2.)Aybar, now that he has learned to make the routine plays, is as reliable a SS as you can get (with a cannon for a right arm).
3.)Reports indicate that that Kotch is gonna be platooned with Garko, that throws that defensive upgrade out the window.
You’re going by UZR/150 only and not looking at all the other peripheral stats. You’re cherry picking. When I linked the defensive metrics from fangraphs I could have only used the ones I liked for my team, but I decided to be fair.
All that range doesn’t mean shit if you’re not making ALL the plays.
Errors – Angels (4, AL) M’s (10, AL)
FP – Angels (T-3) M’s (T-9)
It’s. A. Wash.
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
Im not cherry picking. I'm using the most advanced defensive metrics available.
You are using errors and fielding percentage which is outdated and quite useless
No, useless is projecting performances months before a single game has been played
I have not and probably will not ever buy in to the majority of this statistical crap when it comes to baseball.
When it comes to situational matchups, like lefty-lefty, and things of that sort, yeah I get it. But beyond that it’s not good for much besides idle speculation..
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 9, 2010 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
I suppose so
I was referring more to the phrase “most advanced defensive metrics available”.
And I wasn’t saying that just to insult you or anything, but to give my general disapproval on the whole topic. There are so many things in baseball, especially on defense that are outside the ability of stats to properly quantify. Stats can’t ever account for mental lapses, weather, health, field conditions, coaching, and so on.
Good teams with good players and good coaching that stay healthy will perform. Those that don’t meet those requirements won’t. Those are about the most accurate predictions you can make.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 9, 2010 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
Defensive statistics are, at best, crap.
Not until the entire field in every stadium is mapped and measured by computer-controlled video tracking systems that incorporate all the data concerning the path and speed of each batted ball against the reaction and execution of every defender, can we even think about objectively assigning any numerical value to performance. And, even then, we will STILL be muddled by things like “errors”, which are the subjective determination of a human scorekeeper.
I find it best to avoid arguing defensive stats with the sabremetric acolytes, because they mandate that you converse in their language of numbers and I insist that they have placed their faith in a number system that is fundamentally wrong. Once we get to that point, all communications breaks down.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
What happens when all communication breaks down?!
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 9, 2010 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
I win. Why do you ask?
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Just wonderin'
I was hoping for some sort of apocalyptic scenario or something.
I guess this will suffice though.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 9, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
Stirrups standing alone,
the ashes of planet earth in ruins beneath his feet, raising his bloodied arms in victory as the final surviving form of any life within 4,527 light years…that’s not apocalyptic enough for you?
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Now, that's more like it!
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 9, 2010 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
How could you possibly proclaim it a "victory"...
…when there’s no chicks left to share the “celebration”? Even if you can set the warp drive to the speed of light speed, you ain’t getting any for at least 4,527 years.
Sounds like a bad fantasy, a very very bad fantasy.
That's only at Warp 1
You could set it as high as 9 and decrease your travel time significantly.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 10, 2010 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah. My warp drive has an "11".
And, for the record, it is “victory” because now I can put my feet up on the couch without worrying about any chicks nagging me about it.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
And that is the greatest victory of all
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 10, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
M's had league best defense in 2009.............and they really, really needed it.
Given that the M’s finished last in wOBA (.313) and only three teams (Rangers, Indians, Orioles) compiled a worse xFIP than the M’s. Amazing that the M’s defense could overcome all that.
Pretty sure the three things you listed are components that make up UZR..
A UZR score that was far and away better than the Angels.
It’s just not accurate to place the Angels in the same group defensively with the Mariners.
by Rudy4three on Feb 8, 2010 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
UZR says Guiterriez
The Gold Glove says Hunter…..I’m not ready to crown Franklin Tori’s superior just yet.
The word is no......I am therefore going anyway
James T. Kirk
Can't trust the Gold Glove
Jeter won the Gold Glove last year when he was average among SS defensively.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
I don't really believe
that UZR is completely accurate. Of course the Gold Glove certaintly isn’t either.
The little if
of Bedard being healthy is a rather bigger if then you seem to think. The Guy had a torn Labrum with a big previous history of being injured. I would have to say that his chances of being able to return to his former ability is quite low, else someone would have been willing to offer him a Ben sheets like contract. Ryan-Rowland Smith has never tried to pitch a full season and sooner or later big league hitters are going to figure him out. Lastly, Weavers numbers are better at this stage of his career than lackeys were; Kaz is only 26 and will finally be healthy. I agree that we need Santana to perform well this year, but all things considered, from our pitching, to the M’s complete lack of offense; I predict that we will finish several games above them this year.
The word is no......I am therefore going anyway
James T. Kirk
Matt Palmer should start every game against Felix Hernandez and we will be fine.
Ichiro is due for serious amounts of regression to the mean.
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
Ichiro's mean hasn't been discovered yet.
Regression is out of the question. Decline? Absolutely possible, although players with his type of skillset tend to age quite beautifully. Just look at 36+ y.o. Kenny Lofton’s numbers.
I’m interested to see if Figgins actually has improved, or if his 2009 was simply an outlier in an otherwise solid career.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
From point 1 to point 6
Point 1; “Age, Matsui, Abreu and Hunter are all over 35. Experience? Yes. Decline? Possible”
Answer: Anything is possible, but is it probable? No. There wasn’t any indication that any of them were slowing down or becoming injury prone last year. Could it happen Sure, And Ichiro could blow out a knee. The fact is there is no reason to think it actually will.
Point 2: Will the real Kendry Morales please stand up? Sophomore slump or another .300, 30+, 100+ season. I would be on the later
Answer: I agree completely. He could regress, but I would be very surprised if he did. Remember, last year he did not hit with power from (I believe it was) the right side even though that is the side his power naturally comes from. It stands to reason that he might possible get much better then he was last year.
Point 3: Is this Howie’s breakout year? All signs point to yes. A huge second half and a #2 slot in the order
Answer. Yes, I firmly believe Howie will finally have his break out season barring injury. He will not hit # 2 though, MS has already said he like Abreu in that position.
Point 4: Who will hit leadoff? Aybar? Izzy? Abreu?
Answer. We will likely see a platoon of Izzy and Aybar. It won’t be Abreu.
Point 5: Does Brandon Wood earn a starting role at 3B? If so, does that force Aybar in the leadoff role?
Answer: If Brandon plays solid defense, I believe that MS will give him every opportunity to be the starting 3rd basemen. His hitting will be secondary to that for this year’s consideration.
Point 6: Will Napoli’s playing time be cut by the need to DH Matsui?
Answer: Only if you look at it from a standpoint that he was going to be given the DH role. To me it comes down to do you want Nap in the line up, or do you want Nap and Matsui in the line up together?
The word is no......I am therefore going anyway
James T. Kirk
Okay, I can't stress this enough
The M’s have a nice 1-2 punch but do they have ANY body else worthy of being in that rotation? Nope. All 5 of the Angels starters are quality proven pitchers, so they don’t have an ace, oh well.
Secondly, the M’s have the best 1-2 top of the order punch with Ichiro and Figgins but do they have anyone to drive those guys in? Griffey? Bradley? Please.
We win.
I agree mostly with that
I think the only RBI/HR Machine the M’s have is Gutierrez. Aside from those 3 hitters, the rest are average or below average. While, the Angels have 5-6 guys that can knock in 90 runs any given season.
The M’s have an edge pitching wise, while the Angels are way ahead of them on the offensive side. Defensively, the teams are a wash.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
They aren't a wash defensively, and calling Gutierrez the only RBI/HR machine is pretty silly.
I’m not sure why you are breaking down the game by HR/RBI. If you are then why not put Lopez as the “only” HR/RBI guy? He had more than Gutierrez in both areas last season. Ichiro, Figgins, and Bradley are all better hitters than Gutierrez. The M’s have three above average hitters (Ichiro, Figgins, Bradley). Two average hitters in Lopez and Gutierrez. Then they have some platoons. Garko is an above average hitter vs lefties. Kotchman is slighly below average in the other half that platoon. Overall I would say those two guys will produce like an average 1B.
You go to LF and you have below average offense. SS is below average. And catcher will be slighly below average until Moore gets established.
My bad
I forgot about Lopez’s ability to knock in the long ball as well.
I think I meant that Gutierrez, Figgins, and Ichiro are the only hitters I would actually be worried about. But now that I look at it, Gutierrez has slightly above average stats with a .283/.425/.764 line.
In reality, Figgins and Ichiro are the only ones that I would be worried about, and possibly Gutierrez to knock them in. But outside of that, the M’s don’t really have a strong offense.
I say that defensively they’re a wash because we have a better infield defense, and the Ms have a better outfield defense. But I will give a slight edge to the Ms on defense. But Aybar and Morales are improving a lot defensively.
So M’s better in pitching, but, depending on how Kazmir pans out, could be very close. Angels have a large advantage offensively. And the Ms are marginally better on defense.
So it’ll be close in the AL West, but the Angels will still come out on top.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
Yeah but the importance of IF defense is far greater than the importance of OF defense
A ball hit on the ground that will travel through the infield has a good chance of being converted to an out or even into a double play. A ball on the ground in the outfield has almost no chance of being converted. All the OF has to do is pick it up and get it to the IF to prevent advancement.
While an OF’s range does affect how many balls he gets to, far fewer balls are hit to the outfield where the limits of an outfielders range and skill will be tested. Also, the difference between a great outfield defense and a mediocre one- or even a bad one- is much less significant than the difference between an great infield defense and an average one.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 8, 2010 8:01 AM PST up reply actions
This is an excellent point
Infield defense is more critical for the reasons mentioned above. I’m hearing a lot of doubts this year about our outfield, but its the same one we fielded last year. Does anyone really think Vlad was better in the OF than Abreu? I can’t tell you how many lazy flies I saw Vlad drop and while his arm was strong, he couldn’t hit the broadside of a cut-off man with it. Rivera replaced GA last year. Does anyone really think we down graded there? This years OF will be about the same quality we have been fielding the last 3 or more years and it hasn’t failed us yet.
The word is no......I am therefore going anyway
James T. Kirk
I'm still confused as to how you come to the conclusion the Angels have a better infield
defense?
Wilson and Aybar are both excellent, although Wilson continues to rank as the #1 glove man at SS according to UZR. Wilson is probably a little bit better than Aybar, but if you want to say that Wilson is likely to get hurt and miss games, and Aybar is improving, then cool, we’ll call it even at SS.
I’m not sure how you can assume Wood is going to be as valuable as Figgins defensively, given that Chone just put up two excellent seasons defensively at 3B. He was in the Top 3 defensively in all of baseball last year in regards to 3B.
Figgins > Wood.
Izturis and Kendrick are clearly superior to Lopez defensively, no argument there.
Over at 1B, we have one year of data on Morales, and it shows he’s good, but not as good as Kotchman. The numbers show that, but once again, you wanna call that even because you think Morales is going to improve, and Kotchman is gonna fall off a little. Okay fine. You can give that a wash too.
Being fair, I see a slight edge at 1B and SS for the M’s. A clear edge at 3B for the M’s. And a clear edge at 2B for the Angels.
But as I said, you want to call 1B and SS a wash, okay.. Even if you do that, how are you coming to the conclusion the Angels are better on the infield? It would be pretty even at that point.
Butting in...
There is no way the Angels infield is better DEFENSIVELY. It is a WASH.
Aybar is very close to Wilson’s level and Erick is only 25 years old. It is safe to say that he shall improve even further this year, defensively. I say wash on this one for 2010.
Kotchman is not going to play a full season at 1B because of his light offense. So, your comparison there is bunk due to a part-time player. Kendry is going to do more, more often than Casey will. Yes, Kotch is a better defender, but he won’t be on the field as often as KMo.
Wood is a question mark, for sure. But the scouts are saying his 3B defense is pretty good. I would say that Figgins is better than Wood, but I also think that Wood is going to reach balls that Figgins had to dive for. So, I believe that Wood has the tools to be as good as a defender as Figgins.
I don’t know much about Lopez, so I will defer to your expertise. As far as I know, Howie Kendrick is not a great 2B’man, but he is developing better glove skills and range. So, if you think Lopez is worse than Kendrick, then Lopez must really suck! ;)
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Feb 9, 2010 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
In a similar vein to your Kotchman platooning point...
Izzy will be seeing large quantities of time at 2B and 3B this year. That means that the defensive production at those positions should be improved over your expectations of Wood/Kendrick alone.
It’s the converse of your point about Kotchman being off the field costing the M’s some defensive production. Because of Izzy’s fielding skills versus Wood/Howie, our platooning actually improves our defense.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
My only point was that at worst for the M's it's a wash.
That’s assuming Wilson gets hurt at some point and Kotchman doesn’t play 150 games at 1B. In that case it’s pretty much a wash on the infield.
People are putting way to much emphasis on sabermetrics.....
as they apply to the Angels. With some teams, like the A’s and the Red Sox, these metrics are almost considered gospel and they collect players that fit those metrics. The Angels, on the other hand are managed from top to bottom by the standards and methods of the more traditional school of thought. With them it’s more about how the game is played and using the experience of guys like Mike Scioscia to judge how a player will perform. Therefore the players he collects are being assessed by a set of standards that are not easily defined by these fantasy league metrics. As he doesn’t manage the team the way sabermetrics dictates and doesn’t make out line up cards based on those related formulas, applying them to this particular club is next to useless.
Considering the tremendous success (something like + 50 over the last 5 years) the Angels have had bucking the formulas, it appears that, while there may be a place for their use for lesser skilled managers, a true expert can still beat the mathematical trends. In my view, judging the Angels by these formulas is a fool’s errand. They haven’t been accurate in the past, and there is no reason to believe that they will suddenly start being accurate as long as Mike Scioscia is managing this team.
The word is no......I am therefore going anyway
James T. Kirk
Why can't Bradley drive guys in? The guy has been pretty darn good when he's played in the
AL West. His OPS was .997 or something in 2008. Will he be that good again, you can’t say. Probably not, but expecting him to stuggle like he did with Chicago is also silly.
He should OPS in the .800s and I’m not sure why he can’t drive in runs if that’s the case.
Lopez and Gutierrez are also solid run producers. Garko kills left handed pitching.
If you get guys on base like Ichiro, Figgins, and Bradley will do, it’s not that hard to score runs.
Can't drive in runners from the DL
Nor when suspended.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Feb 6, 2010 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
Well
They do have RRS, who is a good pitcher when healthy.
They signed Bedard, who is a great pitcher when healthy. He’s not healthy, probably won’t be ready until June, and who knows how long he’ll stay healthy after that.
Still, a rotation of Feliz, Lee, Bedard, RRS, and Snell is pretty good, even if its only a half season of Bedard and a half season of Doug Fister.
Also, they do have a good TotO with Ichiro, Figgins, and Bradley. All three of these guys give pitchers fits and have OBPs north of .350. A Damon signing for LF would have made them a decent offensive team, but as they stand now they are banking on run prevention more than run scoring.
The Angels offense is clearly the better of the two, but the Mariners defense beats the Angels anyday.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Feb 6, 2010 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
Slight starting pitching advantage to Seattle?
One-two, then WHO? With the Halos, there are 5 starters who have 15+ win, sub-4 ERA potential.
Thank you, Omar Minaya! Thank you, Mets (Vaughn, GMJ) AGAIN!
And that's not JUST potential.
They’ve done it before
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
by halofan4life on Feb 6, 2010 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
Correctimundo!
Thank you, Omar Minaya! Thank you, Mets (Vaughn, GMJ) AGAIN!
It looks like they're going to re-sign Erik Bedard.
If he pitches like he did in Baltimore (big if), I would make them the favorite.
Otherwise, we’ll probably win the division again, and then get bounced out by either Boston or New York.
I've got nothing.
in my humble opinion the al west will be...
1. halos
2. texas
3. seattle
4. jokeland
by thejd on Feb 6, 2010 7:32 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I sat on a bar stool with a Seattle fan, Qwest Field in Seattle,
one week ago tonight. We talked baseball for two hours.
He was an avid fan………..He expects the Mariners to finish 3rd again.
The bar is basically
adjacent to both Qwest Field and Safeco Field.
Whatever you want, they got............
I’m partial to Snow Cap………………local seasonal from Pyramid.
I visited on my trip!
Pretty sure that’s the place you’re talking about.
"That ball went where he threw it!" - Rex Hudler
by Zoe Necrosis on Feb 7, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
Okay that is Pyramid Brewery
I go to the shitty little dive on the corner across the street.
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
You talking about "Jimmy's"
in the Silver Cloud? If so, I wouldn’t call that a dive. That’s where we sat. Great bar!
The mariners have improved....
more so in terms of organizational strength than on the field strength. They improved their team and cut payroll significantly this off-season.
Those are both great for the long term strength of their organization. Their on the field product is certainly better than last year.
I don’t think it’s enough. Beyond Lee and Felix their rotation is pretty lousy aside from Bedard who is a total wildcard. Beyond Ichiro and Figgins they don’t have any good or sane bats in the lineup. If Bradley behaves and Kotchman has a breakout year they might have a decent offense but I wouldn’t expect much.
They are the most improved team this off-season but they were a bad team last year. It’s going to take at least one more offseason’s like this one to become serious contenders.
Scared of Seattle? Really?
Yeah, its probably not going to be 65 win seattle that shows up this year, but do you really think that team could win 100 games? 95? 90? Competition will be good, it will keep the angels playing hard right into the postseason.
Besides, Seattle is doing what the angels did in the early 90’s- picking up older players in steep decline with huge injury tendecies (griffey), other teams cast offs, and using a pair of solid pitchers to compensate for the nobodies that fill out the final 3 spots. Their team reminds me waaaaaayyyyyyy too much of the days of chad curtis, luis polonia, jt snow and mark langston.
Texas looks to be much better than Seattle. They have a real offense and their pitching has been improving. If things break well for them, they could, in my opinion, win 95 games something seattle simply cant do.
In any case, I think our team, with our balanced rotation, strong bullpen, and ridiculous offense could win 100+ games if wood gets going and morales stays strong. Two things that seem extremely likely imo.
by Balls and Strikes on Feb 6, 2010 9:02 AM PST reply actions
The Mariners are a Paper Tiger
Their offense is still quite weak and is relying upon inconsistent and unhealthy guys to provide power and RBI production. Yeah, Lee and Felix are great, and Bedard could be too whenever he is finally healthy again, but pitching doesn’t score runs.
Just ask the San Francisco Giants how that all pitching, no hitting strategy has worked out.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
Agreed
The M’s offense is awful………………. Ichiro had a great year last year and they still scored only 4 more runs than the Pirates to avoid finishing dead last in all of MLB in runs scored.
Also agree with Balls and Strikes, the M’s do remind me a ton of the Finley, Langston, Abbott days when the Angels had fantastic starting pitching but a horrible offense around them.
To back up what I said, check out this article
If the added wins projected here are accurate for Lee and Figgins, then the Mariners are only marginally better. The author points out, as many have on here, that Lee is essentially replacing what the Mariners had last year with Washburn and Morrow, so he could end up being a near-wash. This says Figgins and Lee will add about 4.5 wins to the Mariners.
Kotchman is an offensive downgrade from Branyan. Garko and Byrnes are nearly inconsequential, especially if they are platooned, and Bradley is a question mark. If all of this turns out to be true, which may or may not happen, then look for the Mariners in 3rd place again.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 8, 2010 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
Cliff Corcoran?
Bad idea. He’s very bad an evaluating the Mariners. Since we’re going off results, Brandon Morrow was no better as a starter than the messload of back-end starters the team has. I’m guessing Corcoran’s article originally had Washburn and Bedard and he found out at the last minute that Bedard was being re-signed so he scrambled to find another name to support his point.
You might be right
I just linked it to show that it wasn’t just us here that felt the same way and that our opinion was shared by someone out there in the sports writers’ world.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Feb 9, 2010 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
The Mariners offense is an abortion. The back end of their rotation sucks
I’m not scared, just anxious to get this season going.
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
You LOSE
you still have Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell to fill your rotation.
you say this like it means something. HA!
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Feb 6, 2010 3:26 PM PST reply actions
Yeah
Rotation will probably be Felix, Lee, RRS, Snell and Fister until Bedard is ready. RRS probably won’t be in the BP and they traded Marrow for League. League’s slider was the #1 swing and miss pitch in baseball last year and his fastball gets a ton of groundballs (thanks Fangraphs). With him, Aardsma, and Lowe they have a pretty solid back end.
The Angels BP still worries me a bit, but its never taken MS more than half a season to pull it together. Jepsen is cool, but still everyone in the pen is something of a questionmark.
Thier defense is better. Our rotation should be better, but it really depends. Our offense is a lot better and they have more potential injury risks.
So, while I don’t really fear them, I am excited to see that they have improved and that the Angels should have some competetion in the West this year.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Feb 6, 2010 5:02 PM PST reply actions
An overlooked (or misunderstood) part of the Mariners current club
is their absolutely insane depth at 4/5 in the rotation. Like 7-8 guys who all have legitimate upsides of quality #4’s, and there is finally a manager in Seattle who will play musical chairs early and often to separate the wheat from the chaff.
There are big question marks for Seattle. Lee and Bedard are basically the causes for concern. Bedard has a history of injury problems (but remember that all of last year, when he was putting up a 9.8 K/9 and a 1.18 WHIP, he was pitching with the injury), but all signs point to him recovering on schedule. Lee was abused last year, and pitchers of his type (smooth lefties) don’t tend to give much warning before they explode.
I don’t think Bradley is going to be a problem, for a few reasons, but the biggest is that he’ll be able to DH as often as he (and the club) feel is necessary to keep him fresh. There are other signs that point to another good year for him (not 2008 good, but .850 OPS good anyway), but I would bet on him contributing just fine to the M’s offense. And let’s not sell the guy short, I mean his career worst OPS was last year when he still managed an OBP heavy .775.
But IF the M’s get a full season out of Lee and half a season from Bedard, they’re a serious force and decidedly not a team anyone wants to face in the playoffs.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
It's not that Bradley can't put up good numbers.
He’s a solid ML player. It’s the primadonna in him that get’s in the way of his playing. The paranoia, the blaming of other teamates, the tantrums. 5 teams in 6 years. Eventually you would think a person would look in the mirror and go “Maybe it’s not everyone else, maybe I’m just a douchebag.” However, he hasn’t done that yet. And to neglect that and assume he’ll put up an .850 OPS and just contribute without being a distraction is foolish.
Will he blow up? Maybe, maybe not. But I have a feeling that by the all-star break the M’s will know if they made a mistake.
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
Pitching depth is a feature of the AL West
An overlooked (or misunderstood) part of the Mariners current club is their absolutely insane depth at 4/5 in the rotation.
Yeah, but this is a feature of all the clubs in the AL West (and if I properly looked, for most clubs in the AL i would imagine):
Seattle: #4 Snell, #5 Fister, #6 Vargas, #7 French, #8 Olson #9 Bedard (DL)
Rangers: #4 Holland, #5 Hunter, #6 McCarthy, #7Harrison, #8 Nippert, #9 Feliz
Oakland: #4 Andersen, #5 Mazzaro, #6 Cahill, #7 Gonzalez, #8 Outman (DL)
Angels: #4 Saunders, #5 Pineiro, #6 Palmer, #7 O’Sullivan, #8 Bell, #9 Reckling
Good depth is exactly that, pitchers that have the potential to be starters and do well (see matt Palmer 2008-9) or do badly and struggle (Brandon McCarthy’s career so far). But ultimately you don’t want to see your (6-9) starting unless injury hits*
*just as a note, O’Sullivan, Bell and Palmer (and Loux) all started for the Angels last year due to injuries to Lackey, Santana, Moseley and the death of Adenhart, our top pitching prospect.
All the AL West blogs big up their own back-up SP’s, because of club attachment and having actually seen these replacement pitchers pitch. Only a few have the potential to have a significant impact (like say Feliz, Gio Gonzales, Reckling, Cahill etc) and they are mainly the kids and top prospects.
All the rest are much-the-sameness. I have little doubt their scouting reports look like this: Solid fastball in the low 90’s/high 80’s. Average to above average with a breaking ball, and some development with a change-up. All need to improve control to be better. Their upside is Joe Saunders, Ryan Rowland-Smith or Scot Feldman. If they put it all together, which is not easy for replacement pitchers. Many fail to make it in the bigs: we just don’t hear a lot about these pitchers. They fall to the wayside. For example, Dustin Moseley had 4/5 starter potential but kept getting injured. He no longer plays for us or anyone at the moment precisely because of the depth most teams have at 4/5. Saunders and Rowland-Smith or Scot Feldman are the exceptions in MLB as they so far, have stuck.
Good depth is great, and will help a club stay competitive. But for a team, like Seattle, that need to get competitive, won’t do so by relying on replacement starting pitchers. Seattle need Snell or Fister (or another) to really step up to solidify their back end of the rotation. We need Saunders to be healthy (struggling in 2009 as he didn’t want to go on the DL as well as Lackey and Santana) and revert back to Joe V.2008 and Pineiro to pitch as he did in 2009. Our 4/5 have a track record, Seattle’s don’t, the risk is with Seattle.
Also the Bedard* acquisition: If conservative estimates are correct (i.e. not when Bedard thinks he will return, but when doctors think he will) then he gets back June/July. Goes through his ‘spring training’, and pitches for the first time since shoulder surgery (the worst kind for a pitcher) I don’t know what type of impact he will provide. I’ve seen so many pitchers struggle from this type of issue. I’m betting he will not be the Bedard you’ve seen before, his past stats are not what should be expected from him for the month or two he pitches. Kelvim Escobar couldn’t come back last year from shoulder injury. He pitched 1 game and went back on the DL.
*Just a note: Bedard had tommy john surgery in 2002. And now surgery for a torn labrum in 2009. He is even more fragile then I thought.
Here are a couple of articles about Bedard’s torn labrum:
Why the torn labum is baseball’s most fearsome injury
Bedard’s injury seldom leaves players the same
Erik Bedard: can he come back?
by TheQuestforMerlin on Feb 7, 2010 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't be so worried about the Mariners
… as I would every other team in the division. Any of the four teams could win the division and it wouldn’t be a statistical surprise. Who wins this division is probably going to have the most break out players and least number of major injuries – stuff that can’t really be predicted beforehand.
vr, Xei
You forgot a big factor...
Our Manager is FAR superior theirs, as is our bench coaching…M’s are better – no doubt…but not as good…frankly, I think the Rangers are more dangerous…
The Mariners have no offense.
Yeah, they have Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the lineup which is nice but they have absolutely no power whatsoever. Griffey Jr. might hit 20 homers if he gets enough AB’s but he won’t be an efficient run producer and he won’t hit for a great average. Jose Lopez might hit 20 homers also but he isn’t a guy that is really fearsome. Their only real power threat last season is now a free agent (Russell Branyan).
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Feb 8, 2010 10:44 PM PST reply actions
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