Should I Worry About Jered Weaver's Fastball Velocity?
by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 2, 2010 9:03 PM PST
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PrintThe short answer is no, you should not. Last season, Jered Weaver was the ace of the staff, despite one of the slowest average fastballs among righthanded pitchers, 88.7 MPH. That number doesn't seem all that slow, but the average four seam fastball thrown by righthanded pitchers in the majors last year was 92.1 (Lefthanders are about 2 MPH slower on average). Recent research published on the Hardball Times suggests that the slower throwing pitchers tend to do worse than theirprojections, by about half a run of ERA. Weaver falls into this category.
While this is good research and may help to more accurately project pitchers in general, I've looked a bit deeper into the case of Weaver and don't think he has anything to worry about.
First of all, I was surprised to see Weaver among the slower throwing pitchers. He has enough games where he's throwing 92-93 MPH that I don't think of his fastball as slow, though he does have games where he can't dial it up and pitches closer to 86.
The 88.7 is an average of his 4 seam fastball, which is the most common pitch in the majors. Weaver also throws a cutter, and his average speed on this pitch is 89.8. Most pitchers throw the cutter with less velocity than the four seamer. This suggests he could throw the 4-seamer faster more often, but chooses not to, as a big part of his game is changing speeds.
Weaver varies the speed on his fastball. His best fastball on the season registered at 94.6 MPH, a difference of 5.9 MPH compared to his average. Most pitchers have about a 3-4 MPH range from their average to their best. My theory is that Weaver tops out at 94, and could throw 90-91 on average if he wanted to, but he's more effective throwing some slow pitches, then some fast pitches, and keeping the hitter from ever knowing what's coming. There were 281 pitchers who threw more than 500 4-seamers, and Weaver was in the top 10 in the difference between his average and his best. You can see it in his games, where he'll throw an 89 MPH fastball and the hitter looks as overmatched as on a Kevin Jepsen 98 MPH pitch. It's because Weaver can't be timed.
I looked at Weaver's game logs by average fastball speed, to see how he did in the 5 games where he threw the hardest, and the 5 games where he threw the slowest. When I started this I expected that his slow games would be the ones where he was hit the hardest, such as when he struggled in July. I was surprised to find something completely different. In his 5 slowest games, Weaver went 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA. He struck out 29 and walked 10 in 35 innings. In the 5 games where he threw the hardest. he also went 4-1, with a 1.97 ERA, 31 strikeouts and 7 walks in 32 innings.
The conclusion here is that Jered Weaver is a pitcher in the truest sense of the word, not a mere thrower. He has earned his spot as the Angels opening day starter.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Explain to me
How the FFFFF he got so ripped by lefties in 2009 compared to righties. That’s a problem that needs to be fixed if he is going to leap into the ace category.
It's because of his delivery.
A righties first instinct is to bail out because the angle makes it seem like Weave is coming right at you. Look back at video and watch their hips.
As far as lefties are concerned, It’s my opinion that he needs to run that cutter inside on them harder. When he stays outside on them they are already leaning that way (again because of his delivery). If he busts them in, it’s gonna be contact off the habdle of the bat, or a couple busted knuckles.
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
by halofan4life on Mar 2, 2010 11:08 PM PST up reply actions
Nailed it....
I hit left handed and love cross body, hard throwin righties, I get right up on the plate and dive in. It isn’t until well after college that most pitchers aren’t afraid of throwing in like that. If Weaver throws that hard cutter under the hands of lefties, I think he’ll get a lot of outs.
then
Let’s get this info to him. He’ll NEVER become an ace until he can stop with the extreme splits.
There's a Fangraphs article in the comments here and Sam Miller mentioned the same thing, that
The factors that seem to be the main reasons behind the huge split are the stats that pitchers can’t control. HR/FB and BABIP.
So it seems like he just got really unlucky with lefties last season.
IN CASE YOU DID NOT KNOW
our poster here RallyMonkey5 is Sean Smith of the “All The Way” blog and inventor of the Pecota-killing CHONE statistical projection system.
...which hurriedly needs to be renamed to HOWIE or NAPS or AYBAR or some such...
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
by Stirrups on Mar 2, 2010 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
(((sigh)))
I want to invent something! I can’t even download pr0n properly half the time.
Maybe I can invent a anti-opposite-sex-pr0n-download-filter or something. How was I suppose to know ‘bear’ was a term for HAIRY older men with big bellies.
Yes, I had to use eye bleach :(
how were you supposed to not know?
If an ugly chick is called a dog and a fat chick is called a pig, how could you have rationally assumed there would be something attractive associated with the animal on the California flag?
Haha
I’m kidding man. I learned what a ‘bear’ was the hard way one day (not THAT way). We went to an interesting…club when in Boston once. See, nothing good ever comes out of Boston. Ever. (’cept Mikes Pasties and Red Bones, still one of the best rib joints in the country).
I was on a project out there and hey, what else do you have to do when out of town?
Actually I mostly went because they had different musically ‘themed’ rooms and I must admit, their 80’s room was everything that was good with new wave/glam/punk/synth pop/etc. and none of the stuff you hated (ok, I hated).
Well, what I didn’t know is the club was very open minded in that all types mingled. It was actually really interesting experience but I didn’t know about the whole hankercheif color thing and what it meant, or that it was even associated with the gay lifestyle. Mind you, I went there with about 9 straight people as ALL types went here so I had no clue…
Boy, did I learn when someone grabbed me as I was trying to find a friend and tried pulling me on the dance floor in this one room (70’s music I think – freedom rock, etc.) The room I probably shouldn’t have entered. The hand didn’t feel feminine. I heard chains. There was a lot of hair. I cried inside.
Then I ran, or walked real fast. Sphincter was so tight it split atoms.
Feck, I meant...!!!
Mikes PASTRIES! I couldn’t have mispelled a word in any worse way. Ha!
Because everything about California is sexy, Rev
The girls, the weather, the old school punk bands…
and yes, even the bear on the flag.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 3, 2010 8:16 AM PST up reply actions
That makes sense
Just like CHONE this post is pure speculation and absolute shit.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Don't make me bring back PHIL
The rating system that everyone loves to hate.
by yeswecan on Mar 3, 2010 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha,
PHIL was freakin sweet man.
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
If easing back on the throttle results in longevity of the throwing arm, and...
the approach emphasizes a more intelligent approach to taking apart hitters, and
WTY remains a Halo for at least another contract, then I am all for toning it down. Jamie Moyer comes to mind. We would be well served.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Jamie Moyer
Has always been the modal I think of for Jered Weaver. If this holds true, we haven’t yet seen how good he will be.
"Pie Iesu domine, dona eis requiem".
I disagree
Moyer and Weaver are two very different pitchers. Moyer’s mechanics put less strain on his arm but aren’t as fluid as Weaver’s. Moyer relies specifically on on location and throwing a heavy ball. Weaver’s a fly-ball pitcher capable of blowin it by hitters or fooling them.
I saw an Angels Live interview with Weaver the other day
and he said he has been around long enough that opposing batters have begun to figure him out. He said this year he is going to focus on individual batters, change things up, and pitch them differently than what they have seen from him previously like changing speed on the fastball and using different pitches more often.
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
worry
I always worry about this because he’s had annual bouts of minor shoulder soreness in the spring, though not this year it seems.
I love Weave's fastball.
It nevers goes straight, it always has some sort of movement on it, which never caused me to worry about his velocity. Add that to his crossfire motion, and it makes for a very tough day for most hitters.
FREE BRANDON WOOD!
WTY's approach
I heard an opposing hitter say wty was so difficult b/c he comes at you in 8 or 9 different ways and you can never sit on velocity or which way it’s going to break.
by stereoscopic on Mar 3, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
It's also important to keep in mind.....
Weave’s cross body motion, windup mechanics and build hide the ball extremely well. It may only be 90 MPH, but it moves and hitters, especially righties don’t pick it up until it’s too late.
What’s harder to hit, a crystal clear, straight 100 MPH fastball or a well disguised 90 MPH fastball with movement. Ask Brandon Wood, it’s the cutter.
This is why Trevor Reckling is so effective. The average lefty only throws 90, Reckling’s only 20 years old and he throws 89, hides the ball well and adds movement. Who’s to say by the time he’s Weave’s age he wont be touching 94?
Throwing 100 isn’t enough, Jered Weaver……he’s enough.
I sure hope Boras doesn't use this against us in negotiations.
I can see it now, Jered deserves 6 years 120M because he’s a pitcher, not a thrower and can still win games with a mediocre fastball on the downside of his contract.
Great post....
it might behoove you (and us!) to include some links and what not regarding your research. Of course, I believe you but its always fun to have others look at the data and take away other shit from it…
thanks again man! i hope weaver is most excellent again in 2010.
Halos & Clips...must have something to do with the color red and jaded pasts...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 2, 2010 11:25 PM PST reply actions
Keep it in the yard
I don’t worry about Weaver’s fastball velocity, but I do worry about his home-run rate. He’s one of the most flyballingest pitchers I’ve ever seen. This is not a bad thing in and of itself, some guys with names like Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke are all flyball pitchers. But those guys miss more bats and generate a few more grounders than Weaver does, and he’s also held back by a nasty platoon split. Lefties just hammer him, which is not unusual for a right-hander who throws a slider as often as he does, but Jered has it especially bad.
Could this maybe go back to his velocity not being up there with the elite right-handers? Maybe, I don’t know for sure. But so long as Jered keeps letting them leave the yard the way he does, I don’t see him entering the “ace” conversation. He’s just too luck dependent: some days nothing gets over the wall, some days he gets away with a couple of solo homers, and other days he gets bombed with guys on base. He’s a solid pitcher, no doubt, but he’s not the first guy I’d give the ball to in a Game 7 situation.
On your Game 7 point
I sort of agree. I don’t know about any of you, but I was sort of hoping that if we made it to a Game 7 in New York, that Mike would have given the ball to Ervin Santana. I wasn’t comfortable with Weaver on the road last year, I wasn’t comfortable with PO’d Lackey on short rest. Santana would have been well rested, but warm from being used often enough out of the ’pen. He also would have been going up against a heavily-used CC. Call me crazy, but I think it might have worked if we had gotten there.
Anyway, I hope Weaver can earn our Game 7 confidence this year, and I think it’s likely he will.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 3, 2010 8:26 AM PST up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong
but did you mention anywhere in the piece that Weav is learning a two-seamer since Pinata is now apart of the team. I read that in an article somewhere. This would be huge for WEaver, giving him some movement would help a lot.
First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.
That's what I was thinking
I remember seeing the same picture that I think you’re talking about.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but a two-seamer is typically a little faster than a four-seamer is it not? Or is it the other way around?
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 3, 2010 8:21 AM PST up reply actions
4 seamer
Is usually the fastest pitch. But Weaver actually threw his cutter a bit harder than the 4 seamer last year.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 3, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah I always get that mixed up
A two seam grip always seems looser to me and feels like it would comes out faster and easier. The four seam grip seems like there’s more pressure and contact on the ball so I thought it would be a little slower. I guess I was kinda looking at it like a typical changeup, where the extra contract and pressure from the third finger typically reduces speed.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 3, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
*extra contact
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 3, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Actually a 2-seamer and cutter are two completely different pitches.
And a 2-seamer is slower with more movement than your 4 seamer. A cutter is thrown almost identical to a 4-seamer but you slide your two fingers to the right and hold the horseshoe seams kind of at an angle instead of straight across. Also, you have a little wrist snap at the end of the pitch. A 2-seamer is thrown in between the train track seams with a little pressure on your middle finger which gives the ball its down and in movement. Weaver’s two seamer should set up well with his arm slot and also set up well with the cutter. This will make him almost like a greg maddux type pitcher. Excited to see it, hopefully it pans out!!
First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.
by angelskid2210 on Mar 3, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
I may be wrong here
But I remember seeing a video with Weaver showing that he had a 2 seamer already, but he gripped the inside of the seam almost like a split finger that created the movement that he had last year.
In fact, I’m wondering if PitchFX can recognize the 4 seamer compared to the 2 seamer that Weaver throws since it moves only a slight bit and is not like the cutter’s movement. That would be a reasonable explanation to the comparable differences that you see in top speed vs avg speed.
Speed and distance
Weaver is tall with long arms (bulletin). If he releases the ball closer to the plate, does it stand to reason that the batter at a fixed position, has less reaction time? How much does 6 – 7 inches closer release relate to, say 90 mph?
I haven’t slept well for months worrying about this.
At 60.5 feet, a ball traveling 90 mph
crosses home plate at .45 seconds. Assuming a regular guy with a takes out 4 feet, it crosses home plate at .426 seconds. If Weaver can knock out 4.5 feet it crosses home at .424 seconds- negligible difference.
90miles 1hr 56 feet 1mile
1hr 3600sec home 5280 feet
by Balls and Strikes on Mar 6, 2010 6:12 AM PST up reply actions
dammit- not done yet
(90 miles per 1 hour)(1 hour/3600 seconds= miles per second = .025
(56 feet to home)(1 mile/5280 feet)= miles to home = 0.010606
0.010606 miles to home* (1/.025 miles per second)= seconds to home
by Balls and Strikes on Mar 6, 2010 6:16 AM PST up reply actions
Very Simple: x = − b ± √b 2 − 4ac 2a
X is the reaction time afforded the batter in a fixed position
b is the speed of the ball
the Square root of bx2 is the angle of the release
a is the power factor, and
c is the imputed compensation time for the distance perception
Bottom line: be glad you do not have to stand up there with a bat!
by SocalAngelFaninOC on Mar 3, 2010 9:44 AM PST reply actions
Very Simple....
That formula would be hard to remember at bat with a long armed pitcher. It should be printed on the top (label up) side of the bat for quick reference while at the plate.
Thanks for the solution, SocalAngelFaninOc.
That's a rather square formula, isn't it?
Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch
vlad will out hit the guy with the bad knees from the Yankees
Mark my words the Angels will regret letting Vlad go as the Rangers will win the division
by crazy charlie11 on Mar 8, 2010 10:47 PM PST reply actions
Yes, Vlad will out-hit Matsui HR and AVG-wise...
but he is merely benefitting as a result of playing in “The Ballpark at Arlington.” I say he hits 25HR’s while Matsui only gets 19. However, Matsui will be the one soaking in division-winning champagne.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Mar 10, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
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