Shocker: Dave Cameron Thinks it Might Soon Be Time for Angels to "Rebuild"
Over at the well-respected FanGraphs website, Dave Cameron ranks the Angels as just the 11th best organization in baseball. Some excerpts from his write-up:
[L]ike all good things eventually do, it may be coming to an end.
The Angels aren't a bad team, but they aren't a great team anymore either. With John Lackey bolting for Boston, the team's best player is now probably Kendry Morales, who has had one good major league season. While the team has quality around the diamond, there is a significant lack of star power. ... There is no franchise player. [...]
The Angels certainly have ... depth, but it's not young and spry. Hunter is 34, Matsui is 35, and Abreu is 36. Even Juan Rivera is on the wrong side of 30. That outfield is long in the tooth, and they need all of those guys to play well and stay healthy.
[W]ithout a premium group of young players to build around and some important aging role players, the Angels are at a crossroads. If they don't win in 2010 with this team, it might be time to look at going young for a year or two in order to rebuild the foundation of the team.
The team is well run and well financed, so the Angels will likely never be a laughing stock, but their run of owning the division appears to be nearing its end.
A few comments:
1) Again, Cameron has the Angels ranked as the 11th-best organization in baseball at the moment. (And for those who think that this is an example of Cameron's Mariner bias showing, here is his response: "Of the FanGraphs authors to submit their personal rankings, I had the Angels the highest. Had I not been involved, they would have ranked lower than 11th. Claims of bias are the crutch of those who have no credible argument.")
When is the last time the Angels have finished as low as even EIGHTH in the Major Leagues in victories? 2003. From 2007-2009, no Major League team has won more regular season games than the Angels (the team has finished 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in the MLB in victories those three years). Cameron, and apparently the whole FanGraphs crew, would have us believe that we witnessed the end of a great 6- or 8-year run last October. While that certainly jibes with all the preseason projection systems, and maybe with the fears of some regulars at Halos Heaven, it's certainly not obvious to me. I'd want more evidence of decline before writing off what has come to look like a long organizational default of excellence.
2) Speaking of evidence, John Lackey hasn't been the team's best starting pitcher, let alone player, since 2007.
3) In order for you to conclude that the Angels have "a significant lack of star power," you have to set your bar for "star power" pretty darn high. Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Erick Aybar were each top-3 in the AL at their positions last year, according to Win Shares/AB. Morales and Abreu both had 23 Win Shares, which is a level at which you more often than not both make and deserve to make an All-star team. Ervin Santana was a top-5 starting pitcher as recently as 2008, and is all of 27 years old. Jered Weaver ain't no superstar, but a career ERA+ of 121 through age 26 is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
The implication here is that we're talking about people who are plausible in an MVP conversation (the way that Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez are, but Torii Hunter and Weaver are not). Aside from the fact that Kendry Morales came 5th in the MVP vote last year (and Abreu 12th), the implication is correct: We don't have an obvious "franchise" player, at least for the moment. Nor did the 2005 White Sox, the 2003 Marlins, or the 2002 Angels, to cite 37.5 percent of our most recent World Series winners. Nor, for that matter, did the 2009 Angels, and last I looked they did all right. If having Ichiro/King Felix-type franchise players was so essential to winning, then, well, you can finish the sentence.
Also, considering that basically all of our infield and starting rotation is either entering or in their primes, this conversation will almost certainly look different a year from now. Twelve months ago, the words "best player" and "Kendry Morales" were nowhere near each other.
4) The Angels "depth," contra Cameron, is "young and spry." Depth does not mean the starting OF/DH rotation, it means, you know, the guys who will step in if and when the starters get hurt. They are: On the infield, Macier Izturis (29); behind the plate, Jeff Mathis (27); at DH (should Matsui or a corner outfielder fall) Mike Napoli (28), in the outfield Reggie Willits (29), with 23-year-old defensive phenom Peter Bourjos ready for his closeup in case Hunter is stricken for any length of time. Behind the starting rotation we have Matt Palmer (31) followed by a pile of young arms: Trevor Reckling (21), Sean O'Sullivan (22), and Trevor Bell (23).
Cameron is not actually talking about the Angels' "depth" being old, he's doing something I've seen an awful lot of people do this past offseason: using the fact that the Angels' four OF/DH starters are old to make the broader implication that the team is old. But the team ain't old! Here are your core players:
25: Wood, Jepsen,
26: Kazmir, Kendrick, Aybar
27: Morales, Weaver, Santana, Mathis
28: Napoli
29: Saunders, Izturis, Willits
30: Stokes
31: Rivera, Pineiro, Bulger
33: Rodney
34: Hunter, Fuentes, Shields
36: Abreu, Matsui
That's 17 out of 23 players -- including the entire infield and starting rotation -- between the ages of 25 and 31. And chances are that spots #24 & 25 will be within that band, too. The Angels don't have an old team, they have an old outfield, and troika of moderately old arms in the bullpen (none of which are under contract very long).
5) Do the Angels really "need all of those guys to play well and stay healthy"? Last year, three of the four OF/DH starters spent some quality time banged up, and one of them (Vladimir Guerrero) had by far his worst year, and was arguably the worst offensive player in the lineup when Jeff Mathis wasn't playing. Hunter only started 114 games in CF, Vlad only 93 at DH. Take the 639 starts at those 4 positions, and the 4 main guys accounted for 496 (78%) of them. Making 125 starts each is not particularly healthy in the scheme of things, and again the team managed to do all right. The most likely ominous possibility is that one of Matsui/Rivera/Abreu has a significant injury. But -- especially if it's Matsui, who is the most likely -- the team has the depth to deal with it. The Angels might legitimately be in a bad way if Torii Hunter has a catastrophic injury, but again, the guy missed 48 starts in CF last year, and Peter Bourjos' defense is already ready for prime time.
Ah, but will the fogeys "play well"? While I am almost positive that they will play worse than last year, and that the team will suffer from that drop in production (after all, they are aging, and Hunter in particular had a terrific year), let's remember a few things here: Bobby Abreu has never not hit. His great year last year was actually his second-worst season by OPS+, a still-very-good 116. Torii Hunter has never hit fewer than 21 home runs in a full season, and his lowest OPS+ was 98. Juan Rivera has always hit, with the exception of the two mostly wiped-out seasons after he snapped his leg in half. And Hideki Matsui's career-low OPS+ was 108; his lifetime (which he exceeded as recently as last year) is a stellar 124. These guys will decline, because they're getting older, but they're starting from a good deal higher than, say, Franklin Gutierrez. They should still hit.
6) How on earth can you conclude that the Angels lack "a premium group of young players to build around"? Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana, and Jered Weaver have 167 victories between them, and none are older than 27. Mike Napoli is one 16 catchers in Major League history to have a 120 OPS+ through his age-27 season. Erick Aybar is as talented a defensive shortstop there is in the game, and he's entering his age-26 season after hitting .312. Howie Kendrick, despite being mostly a disappointment so far, is a career .300 hitting second baseman entering his age-26 year, coming off a .350 second half. There's a new athletic 3Bman in town with prodiguous power, and the guy on first just set a franchise record for extra base hits in his first full season in the bigs. The whole infield and rotation is young, mostly cheap, and under contract for several years. And there's a young cat in the bullpen who throws 100 MPH, with a 92-mph offspeed pitch.
This is no "crossroads"; this is, finally, the full fruition of a youth movement that began (disastrously!) in 2005, lumbered into gear in the second half of 2006, and ultimately contributed (more in each passing year) to four division titles in five years. That group is right now hitting its numerical prime, just as the older pieces are seeking free agent money elsewhere, and replenishing our farm system with a dozen high draft picks in just two years.
I don't mean to pick on Dave Cameron here; just using him as a stand-in for a lot of the skepticism I've read this offseason. There are reasons to doubt this year's team -- what if a starter or two goes down, what if Kazmir/Santana never turn back into their 2008 selves, what if Torii breaks his shoulder, what if Brandon Wood pulls a Jack Howell, and what if Aybar/Morales et al never again hit as good as last year. But there is huge upside over last year on the pitching staff, and there are an awful lot of players at the magical age of 26-27. Saying that we're old, or at a crossroads, or lack premium young talent ... I really don't get it.
Nor do I get this tack-on explainer from Cameron:
Texas has more quality young talent than any non-Tampa team in baseball. This isn't just unproven young prospects, but a core of tremendously good players to build around. And yes, the best farm system in the game. They’re as good as the Angels now (maybe even better) and have a significantly better talent base to build from going forward.
Seattle is about equal to the Angels in present talent, but take the lead in future talent. They have better near major league ready players than the Angels do, and they have a better management team in place.
Look, I know it's ridiculous to award pennants based on past performance, but can we hold off on the parades for the upstarts for at least, I dunno, a month? The Angels averaged 90 wins this past decade; Texas never once during that time managed that many in a season. Seattle's high total in wins the past six years was 88; the Angels' lowest was 89. The Mariners have no catcher, no back end of the rotation, no batter at shortstop, a 40-year-old DH, and an offense so anemic that Casey Kotchman is projected to be their number-three hitter. The Rangers had a lousy offense last year, lost some of their better hitters, and also let their best starting pitcher walk. Both organizations may be headed in the right direction, but to declare anyone in this division as having equal talent and "better management" at this point is a triumph of hope over experience.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Jeez, Matt--Your work should be published nationally
not Cameron’s. His obvious bias pokes numerous holes in his logic.
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
he is published nationally...
just not when it comes to sports.
Halos & Clips...must have something to do with the color red and jaded pasts...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 28, 2010 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe even Alaska.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Back in 1982
I was at the Orange County Fair, and I was waiting in line to ride “the Zipper”. The Big Biker Dude that was handling the ride seen that I was wearing a Cubs shirt, and asked me if I was from Chicago. When I replied no and that I was from Hawaii. He yelled “WELCOME TO AMERICA!”. Then left me on the ride for about 30 min. for my initiation to the United States.
I remember The Zipper at the OC Fair!
Do they still have that ride at fairs?
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
But, yeah, funny shit!
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Cool thing about was
I was on so long I became immune to such rides. Should have become an astronaut
Not sure , but the zipper is still in full effect
Eyespy mentioning it made me do a prolonged internet search about that ride. I was shocked it has only been attributed to 4 deaths in (all in 1977) … wtf, i was under the impression that beast killed fair-goers every year.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Mar 28, 2010 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Thus illustrating
that kindness and friendliness are even more desirable possessions than knowledge.
I Mom is a big CUBS fan
She was born and raised in Rockford Ill. and actually tried out for that league the the movie “A League of They’re Own” was based on.
Gotta please your MaMa.
Plus it was a three quarter sleeve, and had to do with baseball.
A pass is hearby granted.
But only because of the 3/4 sleeve. My mom is a lesbian but that doesn’t mean I have to like…oh wait…
Captain, there are doubt's...
by Match Day 5 on Mar 29, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
and in "Dodgertown"
lol…
Halos & Clips...must have something to do with the color red and jaded pasts...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 28, 2010 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey man, I was published in The Hardball Times annual!
And ESPN.com, and a few other places. But yeah, this is mostly a hobby.
Hey
No self promotion. Didn’t you read the rules?
;-D
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
you can self promote
but is we are not impressed you will suffer. If Matt makes it to Charlie Rose I hope he asks on camera where the smell of Vodka is coming from…
who needs a crutch when you have mattwelch the "pwn monster"
the naysayer slayer
IT COULD HAPPEN
by BigBangRobbDawgg on Mar 28, 2010 8:20 PM PDT reply actions
Great response Matt.
I would much rather be the team with an aging outfield than a team with an aging infield or starting staff.
1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com
All I can say is "I hope so..."
I feel as if this year is a real “make it or break it” year for our young guys.
We will see if Weaver is a true ace or not…if Saundo can continue succeed despite not having dominate stuff. If Ervin will always be inconsistent or permanently begin to pitch like he has shown previous in 2008. Can Kaz regain his success and ever learn to pitch past the 6th inning? Will Napoli ever learn how to become a good defensive catcher? Is Kowbell for real? Can Mathis ever hit?
There are so many questions going into this year and yes, we have similar questions every year. It just feels like this is the year that all our players are going to show their true colors…i.e. who they will be for the rest of their major league career.
Halos & Clips...must have something to do with the color red and jaded pasts...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Mar 28, 2010 8:50 PM PDT reply actions
Yeah, i think that's what everyone said last year too...
We lost Teix…. blah, blah, blah…. I actually have more confidence going into this year than last year… But you are right, every year we have similar Q’s… And once again we’ll be just fine.
Now stuck in Colorado Springs
by stuck in Romania on Mar 28, 2010 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions
We even re-signed a similar Q
The dugout in Texas has exactly 12 steps.
by Teixeira Who? on Mar 28, 2010 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I would hate to be the one to hold you back in a room full of naysayers Matt.
What Dave Cameron doesn’t get is, ever since Mike Scioscia took over the Halos, we have been in perpetual rebuild mode for the past eight.
Matt. I’m glad you like to write, because I like read what you do.
As you noted above the Angels won the WS in 2002 without "star" talent.
They were an all-around good tea. And winning the WS usually comes down to some god brakes in the process (like the break the Yanks last year with the weather in NY when he traveled there for the ALCS).
Beyond that, the Angels have shown for 5-6 years running that they beat projections. That has to do with Scioscia’s management style. He has found ways to eke out 5-10 more wins a year above projections.
If there’s any worries, it’s that other teams (like the Mariners) have studied Scioscia’s game strategy and are beginning to co-opt his srtategies.
Well crap...
…other than leaving “m” out of “team”, an “o” out of “good”, and mis-spelling ‘strategies", I didn’t have any other errors.
Oh wait…I also left the word “had” out of “…like the break the Yanks had…”.
I’m going to bed.
Well.....Troy Glaus and Garrett Anderson and Tim Salmon and Darin Erstad were star talent,
they just weren’t media stars. I think you need to differentiate the two.
Cameron was the one at fault for not defining his terms
Making rather sweeping generalizations and assumptions (that you have to have “major stars” to win) and then not fully researching his findings
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
Reading these current fangraph articles by Cameron and the others and finding their
perception of the Angels as an organization and a team so far off clearly demonstrates why they always come back later and call the Angels over-achieving and “lucky.” They are just making excuses for themselves, their ignorance, and not doing their homework. Thanks Matt for taking the time to write this out.
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
Mariners
At OF and DH are almost as old as the Angels:
Griffey 40
Ichiro 36
Bradley 32
Gutierrez 27
Comes out to half a year older on average for the Angels.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
because Bradley could hurt someone else
NA, #34 SP, LAA
Light up the Halo for Nick!
More Howie please...
No problem, although to be honest many Mariner fans would prefer to see Griffey simply go away, Bradley become the full time DH and a platoon of Langerhans/Saunders and Byrnes in LF.
Bradley DH’ing would also hopefully be a health benefit as well, although he is still liable to hurting himself in other more creative ways.
by EnglishMariner on Mar 31, 2010 3:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Correctly if I'm wrong
but wasn’t the justification of bringing back Jr. his positive influence in the clubhouse and whatnot? Couldn’t he contribute all those good vibes while sitting on the bench and starting like once a week? Not that I’m complaining. If the M’s want to give away ab’s and weaken their outfield D more power to them…
Yes it was
I think Griffey presently finds himself in a position to garner more ABs because the M’s were unable to procure that “40 HR” bat from another club.
Do you have 8 other Ichiro's?
The Mariners had the worst offense in the AL last year and they lost Branyan and Beltre.
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
And they had a ~.600 OPS from C, SS and LF last year.
Which should improve substantially this year.
by Terminator X on Mar 30, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I really wanna know too
Because I’m betting this prediction has to do with Bradley and Byrnes in part.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 30, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Good bet.
Bradley’s worst OPS in the last half dozen years or so was last year’s .775. Even being pessimistic and having him repeat his worst performance in recent memory would be a ~.1 upgrade over what the M’s got out of LF last year. Byrnes/Langerhans (whoever gets the spot) will probably put up a .650-.700 OPS in a couple hundred PA. I feel pretty safe is guessing about a .750 OPS total from LF. Jack Wilson’s no slugger but his career OPS is .684, and can be realistically expected to contribute in the .630-.660 range (he hasn’t been below .650 in many years, so again, being a little pessimistic here). Jack Hannahan falls in that .650 range as well. Rob Johnson’s a piece of crap, but Adam Moore is promising and the two could combine for anywhere between a .590 OPS and a .670 or so. My personal projections?
LF – .820
SS – .640
C – .630
For an average of about .690-.700
What do you disagree with in there?
by Terminator X on Mar 30, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
"a piece of crap?"
the man has a mother for mercy’s sake. Now Mathis, he’s a piece of crap.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
I was actually curious about your reasoning, but the main thing I'd be worried about is Byrnes, et al.
Byrnes hasn’t really been an impact player in about 2 seasons primarily because of his health. He’s also not getting any younger. Platooning him might help, but Langerhans’ career numbers don’t inspire a ton of confidence that he will be an impact player either. As with any platoon situation, it might not work out in the end either.
The actual numbers you gave by position I could see, but the only one I’d call a significant jump from .600 is LF. Relying on a platoon of Byrnes/Langerhans to produce that would give me some pause.
That sums up my overall view on the Mariners – they are simply taking far too many gambles. Lee and Figgins were great pickups but I had to scratch my head when they picked up Bradley, Garko and Byrnes. Bradley is a walking disaster who’s on-field performance is as erratic as his personality. Byrnes and Garko haven’t been significant contributors in at least two seasons and they are coming to platoon/bench positions. Kotchman is a respectable player, but he has no business hitting in the 3 or 4 spot in any lineup. The M’s are relying on 3 erratic or below average players to bounce back to old form and a 4th who has been average his entire career to have a breakout season all at once.
Sure it could happen – this is baseball afterall. I wouldn’t put money on it though.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Out in the Internet, stupidity roars with impunity.
If Cameron had something at risk with his prognostications (say, for example, his livelihood), there would be a whole new rigor to his opinion concerning what counts as “objectivity” and “science”. But, alas, no. A year from now one or two people around here will remember to link back to to his post. A few may laugh or giggle. But then Cameron and his like will have moved on to a fresh rearrangement of facts and data and the Internet will have forgotten and forgiven.
And then, just like today, they will stand upon their Podium of Pomposity and dare everyone anew to defeat their fabricated mathematics using their very own fabricated mathematical methods.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
by Stirrups on Mar 28, 2010 9:44 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Right
Basicaly a “The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy” sorta scenario.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Well put
My thought reading it, that the author may be wrong about the strong bias and that another possibility was that Cameron just wasn’t that smart or informed. Of course everyone has biases which only points out how silly the response cited was. The snarky put down is effective at ending any discussion and followers will be fully satisfied.
Completely agree with you
I looked at this article a day or two ago and thought it was pretty much complete crap.
My favorite crap comment of the off-season, though, has to be BP proclaiming how right they were about the Angels “only” making it to the postseason again while they crowed about how great it was that Boston/New York/whatever had made it there yet again—in addition to, my real favorite of the favorite, crowing about how they were right in that Joe Saunders went to “Regression City!!!!!!!!” in 2009, all while completely ignoring that he was pitching injured for the majority of the season.
Yeah. Awesome.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
it is pretty much crap
really not worth a response, but mattwelch’s #4 and #6 to me are the main rebuttals to the suggestion we need to rebuild.
Yes, we know we are a little long in the tooth in OF/DH. duh. And Pineiro is 31.
As for the IFs & Cs and rest of the SP, why even waste my breath?
Yeah, let’s scrap the Morales/Kendrick/Aybar/Wood IF and Mathis/Napoi and Weaver/Saunders/Santana/Kazmir for some younger players and rebuild!
simply brilliant.
by Rex Fregosi on Mar 29, 2010 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions
"Claims of bias are the crutch of those who have no credible argument."
They are also the crutch of those who are trying to be kind, Dave, since the only other explanation is that you are an ignorant idiot.
by rspencer on Mar 28, 2010 10:22 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs
r e c d
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Mar 28, 2010 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
As interesting as is Matt's rebuttal,
we should remember that Dave Cameron is a Mariners’ fan first.
Mariners’ fans in Seattle would prefer doting on Angels’ misfortune rather than winning the state lottery with a ticket gifted by an anonymous benefactor.
USS Mariner
I liked the post where they thanked the Angels for signing Hunter and started counting division titles. Tools.
I also like when they called Frankie out for cheating.
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
It just points to the fact that there is obviously a movement out there in sports land
to denigrate, discredit and dethrone the Halos, and it’s not just Mariner fans. Many prominent sports people are frankly just sick of us and our Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (the name is part of the problem) and want someone (anyone) else to rise out of the western waste land, where the games come on past their freaking bedtime and they really don’t care anyway cause it’s not the glorious East, and replace us:
“You freaking Angels just ef off and die.”
We are the Rodney Dangerfield of sports: We get no f***in’ respect.
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
we are the kid on the zipper
and ESPN is the redneck
by Rev Halofan on Mar 28, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Yup, everyone's out to get the Angels. Obviously.
by Terminator X on Mar 30, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for posting.
It was real insightful and thought-provoking.
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
As Biggsy and Jason were talking about today on "The Drive":
“There’s no question about it” [the bias against the Halos]; but they also said that writers like Ken Rosenthal and Olney (sp?) are “coming around” and picking the Angels now to finish 1st. I think with Lee’s injury, the lack of pitching outside of #1 and #2, the counting on Bradley, and the general lack of power or run-scoring ability, people are starting to back off of the “Mariners bandwagon”, as Biggs puts it, that they had “jumped on right out of the shop” earlier this year. One of the reasons for such proven bias—according to the two talk show hosts, was that the Angels were “the boring choice.” I love that.
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
Winning is everything, and that's what we do
Under the most rigorously observed conditions of skill, age, environment, statistical rules and other variables, a ballplayer will perform as he damn well pleases.
And ours have been performing for the best part of a decade, long my it continue.
I like analysts and commentators blinding themselves to our success, the less focus there is on what we do well and how we do it, the more our strategic advantages stays an advantage. Good write up Matt, cheers for outlining the age thing. It’s a real pet peeve of mine. We’re young goddamit!
by TheQuestforMerlin on Mar 29, 2010 12:44 AM PDT reply actions
Well to play Devil's Advocate...
…have any of you looked at the free-agent issue the Angels will face in 2012? If this off-season was painful, just wait :/
Looking ahead...............Since you mention it, what's the problem?
Fuentes & Rodney………………Jepsen, Bulger, Kohn, FRod, Herndon, Carmona, ?, ?, ?. Fuentes could be gone after 2010.
Kazmir & Pineiro………………..Reckling, Ortega, SOS, Bell, Walden, Richards, Skaggs, Martinez-Mesa, WSmith, Chatwood, Chaffee?, ?, ?. 2012 is a club option year for Kazmir which might or might not be picked up, dependent on how he does plus how the youngsters mature.
JRivera & BAbreu……………….Bourjos, Evans, Pettit, Aldridge, JMoore, Trumbo…..Morales, Conger,……..CCrawford? 2012 is an option year for Abreu which might not vest. Rivera will be only 33.
GMJr………………………………The money is finally off the books.
That was so much fun.....
After 2010 (the 2011 FA classs), all we worry about is Quinlan, Speier, Shields, and Fuentes. Even if Quinlan makes the squad this season, he won’t next year.
Let’s everybody hope Shields and Fuentes make decisions very difficult next offseason.
Not sure where you got your list from...
I happened to have read a recent article that also coincided with what I remember, but I did not double-check each player. Maybe their site is wrong…or my memory. I’ll check in the morning (hell, it is morning!)
In 2012, free agents include:
- Mike Napoli – Doesn’t matter as he or Mathis will be traded before then (I think)
- Ervin Santana
- Jered Weaver
- Joe Saunders
- Maicer Izturis – I will always <3 Tits
- Howie Kendrick
- Erick Aybar
BTW, I might be using 2012 and 2013 in the wrong manner...
I guess these are free agents in 2013 after 2012 season so my bad, I always get the season…and when they are free agents, muddled in my head.
Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu (if his option is exercised) and Scott Kazmir (Again, option pending)
Will join this list of free agents. Also if we exercise the 2013 option on Santana, he won’t be a free agent at this point.
The FANGRAPHS article
would be referred to as the 2013 Free Agent List if it were done in its normal manner by MLBTradeRumors.com.
Yeah sorry...
…as I mentioned, I transpose years. In my mind, they are done in 2012 but yes, free agents for the 2013 season.
Either way, THAT will be a very painful offseason potentially.
I think many won’t mind Torii and Bobby being done by that point as no matter how much you might love them emotionally, their ride will be done.
It’s the pitching staff (Santana, Weaver, Saunders) and Aybar/Kendrick that will hurt bad.
Just a simple question
Who gives a shit what Dave Cameron thinks?
His obvious bias towards the Mariners aside (no crime in that, of course), the paucity of his knowledge of the Angels is inexcusable given the fact that he has had the opportunity to see the team in the AL West for all these years.
Yes, the Mariners have Felix and (eventually) Lee in their rotation, and then…who, exactly?
Yes, the Mariners have Bradley, who just informed the world he is NOT a power hitter and that the fans need to adjust their expectations. Without a legitimate power bat in the lineup, who is going to drive in the runs with the big blast?
And while it is possible the Angels don’t have a “franchise player”, does that mean that a talented, balanced Angels team won’t still put the Mariners in third place (behind the Rangers) in the AL West in 2010?
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
It stings me so
If I bleed, am I not a prick? Wait, that didn’t come out right.
Actually, I concur. Starting with “who the hell is Dave Cameron?”
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
That quote
If I bleed, am I not a prick?
I think that was from Larry Shakespeare, William’s less-successful brother. His Don Swayze, if you will.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Mar 29, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
In defense of his non-bias
Cameron states he had the Angels ranked highest, but then says:
Seattle is about equal to the Angels in present talent, but take the lead in future talent. They have better near major league ready players than the Angels do, and they have a better management team in place.
This tidbit is based on what? One off season? Talk to me in ten years after this management team has gathered 900 wins.
That’s like Glenn Beck saying at least he’s not as biased as Rush Limbaugh.
by WiHaloFan on Mar 29, 2010 6:18 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
All he needs to do is make himself cry on a podcast or something
Because he “just loves the Mariners so much!”
Seriously though, I don’t know how he claims they have a better management system when it’s been in place for what, a year-plus? Ooooh wow, they got Lee and Figgins and then a bunch of crap (Bradley, Garko, Byrnes, et al). It’s like everyone thinks the Mariners are the first team to bring in multiple guys in one off-season. But, would you really want any of them on your team besides Lee and maybe Figgins? NO.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
then Glenn Beck pulls out his trusty ol' chalkboard to prove it.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Mar 29, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
When we win the World Series
We will get respect. Until then these people will continue talking sh**t, no matter how many division titles we win. Go Angels 2010!
Xavier Calvera
no we won't
Stat Geeks are mostly Asberger types who have no social skills in congratulating people.
They are the Queens of Rationalizations when their bullshit does not go right.
Casey Kotchman. . .Your Mariners #3 Hitter
Yeah, folks that’s not a typo. Apparently Milton is the #4 hitter. I certainly don’t have any ill will for Casey, but Casey Kotchman as a #3 hitter is a total joke. I almost feel bad for the guy, as if they are setting him up to fail.
projections are easily tossed aside
Computers and bad info go into them, so they are easily ignored.
Write ups like this however, sting a little bit more. They are detailed and bring up apparent issues within an organization.
We as fans hold firm in our beliefs and our perceptions of the team, but to outsiders who know little (i.e. everyone and every sports news writer and broadcaster east of Texas -which is all of them) they take this as valuable info.
These are the kind of write ups that lead to us getting low projections year after year. Most East Coast writers and broadcasters never really study the Angels they are too busy studying the Yankees 10th bullpen spot or something. So write ups like Dave Cameron’s gets only a glancing over and then taken as fact instead of any research being done.
Thanks Matt Welch for at least getting a well written and summarized retort out there in the Angels defense.
My prediction as of 12-11-2009- Wood .265 avg, 20 HRs 70 RBIs and an above average glove at 3b
by Sinatrasratpack on Mar 29, 2010 9:04 AM PDT reply actions
over time it will
each year more and more people get into deeper stat analysis. the problem is the stat elite feels the need to make up hairsplitting bullshit stats that reveal nothing other than to maintain an elitism among the never-get-laid set.
Pretty much
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know about that
it is a center of hipness. Its amplified by the incestousness of the group to which he belongs. Neyer will refer to it and dork number 2 will refer to Neyer and then a broadcaster will talk about how “studies have been done that prove” whatever. Here in SE Wisconsin, it gets linked to in the blog of the biggest newspaper in the state. The sad part is that its to 3 or 4 paragraph things that don’t really say anything.
Dave Cameron is an unintelligible idiot
The man never comes up with anything new or surprising. What a shocker, a Mariners fan who’s predicted the demise of the Angels just like the rest of Angels haters since 2005. When fools like Cameron come out with this stuff, it just stings that much more when the Angels do as they do every year in since 2002/03, win.
Status quo
I’ll raise my hand and admit to being a big fan of sabermetrics and the application of statistical methods to baseball in general. However, Fangraphs has become almost unreadable in the last couple of years. It’s the epicenter of baseball groupthink on the Internet — they add a new metric to their stable and then reward themselves for identifying teams and players who excel in that metric. The current gold standard is WAR per dollar, which is roughly how they value organizations. Their datasheets are indispensable, but the columnists are fanboys with few new and interesting ideas. In that I agree with everyone else: nothing shocking here, just business as usual.
Now, the other thing that is not shocking is the persistence of Angels’ fans persecution complex. Statisticians, ESPN, the East Coast, they’re all out to get us. I won’t argue that the stories these people sell are fair to Angels’ fans, but the antagonistic relationship between Angels’ fans and their perceived enemies is not going to improve anything.
For instance, why are the Mariners such a sabermetric darling? Part of it is because, for whatever reason, the Mariners online community is nuts over sabermetrics. They have a disproportionate share of the press and a lot of people analyzing their team. Meanwhile, the Angels remain a statistical mystery because no one is working on the problem. And I don’t think anyone will until saberheads and Angel fans stop tossing bombs at one another.
I’m not suggesting that everyone rush to subscribe to Baseball Prospectus or anything. But I feel like the Angels need a strong voice in the sabermetric community and the culture among Angels fans is not conducive to the emergence of such a voice. Sabermetricians are not the East Coast Media Elite, they will respond to rational arguments phrased in the appropriate language. Someone needs to sit down and figure this shit out. Since it’s probably not going to be me, I’m a little discouraged by the unproductive nature of the current discussion.
by Suboptimal on Mar 29, 2010 12:34 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Dude, Sean "Chone" Smith is a SABRtastic legend
And Rich Lederer is widely respected in that universe, in addition to being the single greatest interpreter of the Bill James canon. And though I’m a peon in that world, I have written glowingly about it in non-baseball publications all over North America, in addition to being a participant in the conversation at places like The Hardball Times and Baseball Primer.
I hope you aren’t interpreting my post as “throwing bombs” at Saberheads, or exuding a “persecution complex,” because frankly I’m too old for both activities. I find the Angels/SABR split, such as it is, to be a source of occasional amusement, but the fact is you’ll see tons of props for Soth-ball from Bill James, Jeff Angus, and plenty of others besides. A little friction keeps the blood going, but (I don’t think) shouldn’t be taken too seriously.
Also, I agree with you about Fangraphs — great stats (least as I’m able to understand them), not so impressive on the writing/analysis front. In my limited experience, etc.
i love bill james
most of those who have followed in his footsteps have done so with their heads up their asses.
I buy all of what you said
Except this part:
Sabermetricians are not the East Coast Media Elite, they will respond to rational arguments phrased in the appropriate language. Someone needs to sit down and figure this shit out.
To me, that’s like saying an evangelical preacher will have a rational debate with you about the existence of God as long as your argument is phrased within the framework of the Bible.
The way science works is that you have a theory that remains only a theory until it is proven to be fact. The onus is on the backers of the theory to prove themselves correct, not on everyone else to prove them wrong. Nobody needs to use sabremetrics to prove sabremetricians wrong when they can use real life. Their projections are off just as often as they are on. Then they turn around and say “oh well, there was a range of +/- 8 games here, etc”. Plus or minus 8 games (or however many) would drastically alter the playoff picture in basically every division in baseball. That’s just one example.
I’ll agree that some of the newer stats out there are usueful analytical tools for prior performance, but when it comes to projecting future performance, they are largely inaccurate. All of the calculations in the world don’t mean anything on the field and this is proven year in and year out. Until the sabremetricians start getting just about everything right every single season, there is no reason for anyone to be forced to accept their theories during a discussion just to be deemed “worthy” of a rational response. That’s not a debate, that’s just patronizing them and inflating their false sense of superiority.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I couldn't have said that better myself.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
That's a bit harsh
“Until the sabremetricians start getting just about everything right every single season, there is no reason for anyone to be forced to accept their theories during a discussion just to be deemed "worthy" of a rational response.”
That is a standard that sabermetricians will never meet. Neither will you, or anybody else without divine power. Where we are right now, in terms of predicting things that will happen, is that proper use of sabermetrics can help you be closer to correct about things that will happen than ignoring sabermetrics.
One cool example is that if you take a large enough group of players, say the 20 guys who hit the most homers in 2009. Maybe they averaged 37 homers (I’m guessing). Using decent (non-pecota) projections with some regression to the mean built in, we might project as a group these guys to average 30 homers next year. And we’ll probably be within 1 either way, studies of things like this have usually been close to dead on. But among those 20 players, one of them might have a career year and hit 50. Another one might blow out his knee and be done in April. Sabermetrics will not be able to identify which players.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 29, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
That's exactly my point
They will never be accurate and they will always miss, and probably with a high rate of frequency too.
Yet, some (not all) in the sabermetric community will defend their system to the end and won’t even listen to you unless you frame the argument in a way they want to hear it. When it gets to that point, they aren’t really interested in having a debate, they’re just interested in sounding smarter than everyone else. That’s what annoys me.
It’s simply too inaccurate as it is now for anyone to rationally accept as a reliable projection system.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
the happy medium
they are right some of the time but their arrogance and obtuse refusal to acknowledge the limitations of their measurements implies that they are correct 100% of the time. So many of them are assholes 100% of the time. But many anti-stat posters everywhere are jerks too, so I can understand SOME of the defensive cowardice of the stat-set, but a dollop of self-effacement would do the never-get-laids some good.
by Rev Halofan on Mar 29, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sort of
This is difficult for me to phrase colloquially, because these are professional issues to me. I actually think about science and mathematical reasoning for a living. I’m not the guy who uses a simulation to make a decision, I’m the guy who questions why people think they can obtain reliable knowledge from simulations in the first place. (Don’t ask me why this field exists, but it pays the bills.) So I’m not over-extending myself when I say that hardly anyone in the baseball community understands—or if they do understand, vocalizes—what projections really are. Even Dave Cameron exposed his ignorance of the subject with a poorly conceived column a short time ago. I’m not going to spill the ink explaining it here, but suffice it to say that the way projections are sold to the community is very deceptive. So yes, if by inaccuracy you mean incorrect application, then I agree with you.
But I do think you’re proposing a simplistic representation of science. If you consider science a success, then you have to admit that sabermetrics is essentially correct in its approach. However, it cannot possibly attain the standard you have in mind. That doesn’t mean that sabermetrics will be a failure, just that it has to have more modest goals. The goal of predicting an individual player’s batting average is ridiculous, but statistics can tell you how to best place your bets so that in the long run, you come out ahead. If you play fantasy baseball fanatically or manage a big-league team over the long-term, this is good enough.
What I would like to see is an end to the “luck” argument. I’m open to the possibility that the Angels have been exceptionally lucky. It’s really, really improbable, but then again, so is this. The problem is that I am not aware of any current projects to uncover why the Angels may not be exceptionally lucky. Saberheads are too busy sunning themselves in the heavenly light of their new defensive metrics to bother, or something. The WAR/$ fetish needs to pause too, I don’t know why these people are so sure that WAR is linear, and they completely ignore bargaining strategies in evaluating contracts. It seems like in the near future, only an Angels fan would have the interest in the “luck” problem to figure it out. And what I lament is the fact that the Angels community is so unfriendly to statistical thinking that that fan might never show up.
by Suboptimal on Mar 30, 2010 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
not unfrienly to statistical thinking
unfriendly to snake oil salesmen telling us we are gonna get sick in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009… and doing it from a pedestal of science that “proves” they are right.
The essential approach of "sabermetrics" is debatable
Very often it requires faith. Rob Neyer believes in UZR. He doesn’t say why much less respond to its myriad flaws, he just accepts it and believes it. The only thing missing is choral music.
“Sabermetrics” is highly successful. It has gotten many people jobs. A tiny group of people have muscled their way into baseball orgs and even on to staffs like ESPN. That is remarkable.
The mantra of sabermetricians about defensive metrics has been that of anything but blind faith.
First, it’s extremely well accepted among the saberheads that the best way to evaluate a player defensively is to look at all of the available defensive metrics (Dewan’s +/-, UZR, RZR, whatever the other ones are) along with scouting reports (both professional and exercises like Tom Tango’s fan scouting reports) to estimate a player’s true talent level, as any individual metric may be off for any given player. If the scouting reports are good on a player and all of the metrics but one rate him highly, it’s probably safe to give less weight to the one that doesn’t do so. Fangraphs uses UZR in the articles for simplicity’s sake, but all of the authors there will readily acknowledge that a more conglomerative approach will yield more accurate information.
by Terminator X on Mar 30, 2010 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
You would have to pile a lot of shit upon a lump of coal before that coal turns into diamond.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Vague analogies do no good. What's the problem with gathering as much information as possible, weighing it all appropriately, and going from there?
by Terminator X on Mar 30, 2010 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
What good would it do to determine their horoscopes?
That’s information. Weighing the information appropriately is where this all started.
The horoscope question is a good one...
…a couple of scientists did a large retrospective data-trawl analysis (i.e. the type upon which the statistical community is fairly dependent) of the health 10.5million Ontarians a couple of years back to see if their astrological sign rendered them more likely to be hospitalised due to various health conditions, i.e. if you can draw statistically valid conclusions from this sort of analysis that are medically laughable.
Among the findings:
Aquarians are more likely to suffer from angina than those of any other star sign (p=0.007 – i.e. the probabilty of this being a chance finding is about 0.7%)
Geminis are more likely to be alcoholics (p=0.015)
Librans are more likely to suffer pelvic fracture (p=0.011) – it looks like, from the way the Rev is limping in his video that there may be some truth in this
Scorpians are more likely to suffer from an abscess of the anal or rectal region (p=0.012) – insert your own punchline here
There are many similar such findings which are ultimately statistically debunked within the paper, and logically debunked by what we know ab out medicine.
The upshot of all this statistical ephemera, however is clear – if you torture the data for long enough it will squeal, and it won’t necessarily tell you the truth. (Either this, or that Canadians are medical oddities)
The same provisos should also be applied to some of this statistical interpretation in baseball – it’s not an area for amateurs.
You can read the paper here
I see red people
DUDE
Hi, I’m a Gemini and I’m an alcoholic.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Hi Gemini!
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Apr 2, 2010 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Because you are not "weighing it all appropriately".
You have your finger on the scale, first tipping the data in favor of “viable” for each of the categories of data. Second, because the aggregate of all that data is large enough to satisfy your own needs, you wave off scepticism by declaring that you have reached statistical significance. Third, and finally, satisfied that you have enough data and have eliminated all doubt, you then begin to cull through that data using any number of subjective variants in order to realize a result. Who knows if that result has anything to do with some bias, admitted or otherwise?
My position on defensive metrics is very specific. Until we put video tracking cameras that cover the entire playing surface, and coordinate those with cameras tracking the ball as it actually crosses home plate and follows the ball flight from teh moment of contact, and coordinate all that with even more cameras from the outfield fence facing home so that we know lines of sight and issues of glare/background/etc. with every pitch, we will never have empirical data on how well a player gets a jump, how well they track, how well they define and follow a route, and how much ground they can cover in the time alloted for that ball in flight. And until we change the rules and redefine an error as being something absolutely black or white and remove subjectivity away from some media party up in a stadium box, we will never have authoratative agreement on success/fail that can be tracked with mathematical precision. Until we have those things, we have nothing but shit. And it does not matter how much shit we come up with, it will still be shit. And no amount of all that shit will create enough gravitas to overwhelm all the subjectivity inherent in today’s metrics and convert “defensive metrics” into a worthy gem.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
by Stirrups on Mar 30, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Lord
that’s he gets for accusing you of “vague anologies” I coulda warned him.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
And rob me of all my fun?
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Hahahahahaha........ha
Moondoggy: Thailand deux ex machina
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
now how many people know what the hell you're referring to
sigh I AM a nerd
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Stat Heads make Scientologysts
look objective and flexible.
And to think that they claim to follow the most open minded thinker of the late 20th century, Bill James.
Well put, as usual.
I’m sure most of us can look at Franklin Gutierrez and see he’s one of the best CF in the game, just like we all pretty much know Bobby Abreu is awful in right. The wisdom of the scouts, coaches, and crowds should be enough until the technology reaches the levels you explain. And it WILL happen, just not anytime soon.
The mantras change
You can guess how skilled a player is but using bad estimates doesn’t improve your chances. Adding more bad data doesn’t increase your chances.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that conglomerating data will yield more accurate information.
I don’t believe UZR is used for simplicity, I believe it was an economic choice, just as naming it the “ultimate” was a marketing choice.
Just wait until Supreme Zone Rating of the Universe (SZRU) comes out...
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I think sabermetrics is incomplete if you will
Like Rev, I don’t have much of a problem with statistical thinking when it comes to analysis. It’s the statistical projection part of sabermetrics that I have problem with. In truth, it’s not even so much the projections themselves but the select sabermetricians out there who fanatically promote them even when they are proven to be flawed.
Take that example I posted above where I mentioned +/- 8 games in a division race as a projection. I’ve seen numbers like this in projections before. +/- 8 is a 16 game spread. If that was the Angels, that means the Angels could finish with between 80-96 wins (anywhere from 1st – 3rd place in 2009) and the projection can be claimed as “accurate”. To me, that’s remarkably inaccurate and I think the system needs to be improved. When I start seeing projections with a spread of say, 4 games or 6 games that turn out right, then I’ll start buying it as a more accurate projection system. Is that likely to happen? Maybe not, and that’s exactly my point regarding the reliability of such projections.
Then there’s individual stats like BABiP, WAR, VORP, UZR etc. Most players and coaches probably don’t know or don’t care what those are. I’d be shocked if more than 5% of baseball fans knew what those were either. This is because, as it is now, most of them don’t make for much more than interesting debate. On the field, it’s completely in the hands of the enviornment and human action. If baseball could be accurately projected, people probably wouldn’t watch or even play.
There’s nothing wrong with analysis and debate, but there’s some out there who claim the system is well-developed when it’s really in its infancy.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 30, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Rec'd. I think there is an interesting analogy to be made here if I may.
Ichiro tends to/always does outperform his sabermetric projections. The Angels tend to/always do outperform their sabermetric projections. Mariners fans have recently been asking “why?” and have delved into the numbers to figure out what’s unique about Ichiro that makes him difficult to project. If it can be figured out to an adequate level (and it seems progress is being made) then that information can be used to help fix the projection systems to make them more accurate. Angels fans, rather than dig into the specifics of WHY the Angels routinely outperform their projections, just chalk it up to “Scoscia Magic” and leave it be. If someone were to really dig into what specifics Scioscia/the Angels actually do differently than other teams to help them win more then that information could be used to improve the projection systems.
by Terminator X on Mar 30, 2010 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Your stupider than I thought
Angels partisans are routinely dismissed for bringing up the “non-magic” reasons for the Angels success. And you are quite typical of the stereotype of the close minded imbecilic stat “follower in the herd” personality type when you come here, talk you numbers and have not even done a smidgen of research to see the Angels have been valiantly defended on the net (while they were wiping your asses on the field). But no, you are a sheep who reflexively baahaaaahhhhas to Dave the Dolt Scameroon
Bingo point.
“Angels partisans are routinely dismissed for bringing up the "non-magic" reasons for the Angels success.”
This is exactly right. Simple facts such as baserunners going first to third, and differences in game management between tight games and blowouts that lead to an exacerbation in run differentials, have nearly always dismissed as “magic thinking” by stat acolytes. Not by the few clear thinkers, but certainly by those whose sole skills are to harken back on their Statistics 201 experience and fill out Excel spreadsheets like it were some mathematical paint-by-numbers hobby. There is already information that IS out there. One just needs to take off the blinkers.
So there are aspects of Angels baseball that are outside existing sabremetric functions and have already been identified. Up until about a year ago they were rejected outright, and the usual “reasoning” smelled suspiciously like a cult-like defense of agreed upon dogma. The sad part is that there are probably numerous other aspects of Angels baseball that are contributing to success and are not even being investigated for this same reason.
If I were a competitor of the Angels, you can be sure that I would not be so dismissive of actual results just because some dildo with a sliderule kept telling me that such results were not happening. And if I were a sabremetrician, I would focus exclusively on the Angels and try to make my mark in the science by discovering something new and useful.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
A dildo with a slide rule? Image overload.
Good point though on what a “real” saber magician should study (i.e., the Anegls) and come up with realistic explanation.
Per your other post here about HH'ers
For the record, I do not have problems with statistical analysis nor with statisticians (my oldest son is a freaking astro-physicist for chrissakes, I raised him to do massive data reduction for a living). I do have a problem with how both are most commonly applied to baseball.
It’s not the science. It’s not even the scientists. It’s the engineers who are trying to apply the science that bug the shit out of me. The condescending dismissiveness by use of such rejoinders as “Thanks for your well-reasoned input!” because the commentor failed to engage using the same underlying poorly reasoned data REALLY bugs the shit out of me.
I just want to scream, metaphorically: “Dude, you’re wearing no pants! Stop parading around like you are a fashion queen!!!”
Oops. More image overload.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Image overload & blinded by science...
…let’s suppose some future sabermagician was able to accurately predict even the Angels win totals. Let’s take it a step further…Mr. Sabermagcian has perfected his analysis to the point that he can accurately calculate playoff match-ups and ultimately the winner of the World Series. Year after year.
I’d have 2 reactions;
1) I’d have to tip my Angel cap to Mr. Sabermagician for developing such awesome mathematical analysis.
2) I’d be depressed beyond words. What would be the point of watching? It’d be a foregone conclusion.
NOTE: There’s a joy to watching reruns of the Angels 2002 World Series victory. But this is a lot different. A big part of the joy was the unpredictability. What joy would there be if someone – year after year – had predicted the outcome, including 2002? To me, the joy, the interest, would be reduced to the vanishing point. So, I honor sabermagicians efforts while ridiculing – and ultimately hoping for – their continued inaccurate predictions. It’d be like being told the exact time and circumstances of my departure from this planet. I’d rather not know, and prefer to live EACH day as though it’s my last.
Damn.
Now you’ve gone and burst my bubble. So, you may not actually be a Libertarian – you just play one on the internet?
"That's the true harbinger of spring, not crocuses or swallows returning to Capistrano, but the sound of a bat on a ball." ~Bill Veeck
I'd rather just be a fan, watch and have fun to be honest
I’ve always bought into this philosphy – if a team is made up of good, proven, experienced players, with some depth, some health, and good management, then they will have a good year.
Trying to calculate every last detail to perfection kind of takes the joy out of baseball to me.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
^this^
Stats are nice, and very interesting, but fall short of conveying the real essence of baseball, or explaining and prophesizing the synergy that creates a winning team.
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
I feel the same way about my music and my alcohol.
I’d rather not examine why a musician is using certain tonals and chords and instead just know that the music just f’in grooves.
With alcohol it’s much simpler. If it can give me a buzz, top shelf don’t matter.
Very well put...
…the need to “figure this shit out” should be top of the agenda.
Nevertheless, proper science does involve acknowledging what is known, what is unknown and what is speculation, and, it appears much of what makes the mysterious Sothball successful fits into the latter two categories. Unfortunately most amateur sabremetricians (and a pretty good proportion of ‘pro’ ones) haven’t realised this and insist on describing Sothball in terms of what they know – trying to shoehorn Angels baseball into a still evolving model of baseball analysis.
The often unacknowledged truth is that sabremetrics is a fledgling science, and should be treated as such. Definitive statements in most evolving areas of scientific understanding are likely to be inaccurate and subject to revision in hindsight – this one is no different, and it’s students would do well to remember it.
I see red people
by The Limey on Mar 29, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
...
I’m not suggesting that everyone rush to subscribe to Baseball Prospectus or anything. But I feel like the Angels need a strong voice in the sabermetric community and the culture among Angels fans is not conducive to the emergence of such a voice
So where does Rally fit in? ;)
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2010 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions
are you the same poster vivaelpujols
who was sucking Cameron’s dick in his 2009 forecast at Frangraphs that spelled the end of the Angels dominance? Man, you are one o f the best assslickers I have ever seen in action. Do these senior stat-tards send you candy on your birthday? Are you like the stat hoochie telling them all how smart they are?
Yeah. Same guy. He is all over the baseball blogosphere, actually.
He might be one of the few people who spend more time on computers than I do.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
link is here
The angels won 97games last season.
Dave Cameron said the AL West winner would likely be the team with 85 Wins:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-one-to-85-wins-it/
SECOND COMMENT IN THAT THREAD: a poster VIVAELPUJOLS one-upped the circlejerk ringleader with the claim that the team with 80 wins at the end of the year might be the first place team in the AL west.
There are some fabulous predictions for 2009 in that thread
It is sort of a class reunion for Dionne Warwick’s Psychic Friends Network.
Some gems (the first from our pal vivaeldouchebag)
You do realize that the Angels vastly outperformed there true talent level last year, right? And they lost Garland, Texiera, Anderson, K-Rod and Kotchman and got Abreu, Fuentes and Kendry Morales. They got worse, they weren’t that great to begin with, deal with it.
or
Giving Juan Rivera 3 years, $12 million is certainly questionable. He probably could’ve been had on a one-year deal.
or
You forgot planning on giving Bobby Abreu an appreciable run in the OF. Signing him to be anything other than a full-time DH is a disaster waiting to happen.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Apr 1, 2010 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, listen, vivaelpujols...
Just shut up about baseball for a little bit. At least until we all forget that you exist.
The reason they were so good last year was that they were incredibly clutch, especially on the pitching side. It has been shown that clutch isn’t a repeatable skill (if it is a skill), so that will regress and they will most likely play to there true talent level next year.
Maybe just sit the next couple plays out.
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
Dogs are so easy to mess with
It’s awesome!
They’re like, the perfect toy.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Apr 2, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Angels uber alles
Somebody mentioned the Torii Hunter signing post from USS Mariner. I believe the term was “free agent bomb”. It’s OK. Torii actually has been da bomb.
http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/11/22/angels-sign-torii-hunter/#comments
Right now on that site they are talking about Casey Kotchman’s offensive upside. Just try to imagine if we had kept Kotchman, and were talking about his upside. Do you think the USS Mariner crowd would be taking it seriously? Or making fun of us for being delusional?
There’s nothing wrong with being a fan. Halos Heaven, almost across the board, is not objective. I am not objective when it comes to the Angels. I’d prefer writers who are obvious fanboys to at least admit this. If they don’t, well, don’t let it upset you. The self-delusion of others can be entertaining to watch.
As for the Mariner’s management team being in the same class as the Angels (let alone better), this is pure projection. This is the same as looking at a ridiculous PECOTA projection for Matt Wieters and declaring he’s better than Jorge Posada. If he pans out, well, maybe someday. But hold off until he actually does something before making that statement. If you want to convince me that the management team in Seattle is better than the Angels, come back when they’ve won 3 straight division titles and we’ll talk. Until then, know your role and shut your hole.
As for future talent, I don’t think the Mariners have a better minor league prospect group than the Angels, but I haven’t studied prospect lists in depth. I conceed that Dustin Ackley is a better prospect than anyone else on both teams. Why do the Mariners have him? One reason only: Because they stunk so bad they lost 99 games two years ago. Angels haven’t had a pick that good since Erstad and Glaus in the mid 90’s.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 29, 2010 12:50 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
This is all you need to read from that link:
Hunter isn’t that much of an upgrade offensively from Orlando Cabrera. So the Angels are in the same place offensively today they were last week.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
I wonder what Jon Lester thinks about that?
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I like all the comparisons to Richie Sexson
and his terrible contract.
I expect that this move will improve the Angels in the short term but be (at least) somewhat limiting in the long term. Much like the Sexon deal.
There's more to it than just the headline.
Whoever spends $100 million on Torii Hunter is going to get themselves a solid player for the next 2-3 years, but certainly nothing like the value they’re going to pay for.
If you buy into the Fangraphs WAR to dollars conversion, then Torii Hunter would need to preform at a very high level to be worth the $55M left that is left on his contract.
Here's the link,
Also, USSM has considered turning off comments at times. People do post some stupid things that test their patience.
Wow brilliant defense there...
…so the flaw is that the site is engaging and popular … talk about a congenital elitist.
Since the site is popular it will attract all sorts of people.
What random commenters have written on their site is irrelevant in a critique of Dave Cameron.
how many years in college does it take
to get that license to tell others what is and is not irrelevant?
I've got 14 years, do I qualify?
10 years undergrad (and Belushi was pissed about wasting 7)
3 years law school (and I’m pissed about wasting 3)
1 year masters of law (this one actually paid off big time)
I hereby declare that all criticism of stupid Mariner fans to be relevant in criticizing the Cameron article.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
I'm pretty familiar with the M's, Rangers and Angels minor league systems....
And the M’s have a very weak and over rated system. They simply aren’t developing good major league position players and are developing solid middle inning relievers like it is going out of style. They also took a hit when they traded their best prospect outside of Ackley and then some for Cliff Lee.
The Rangers have the best upper minor league system in baseball. This is mostly due to years and years of losing bad. The Rangers have so much potential, but believe me when I say they are still at least 3 years away from reaching that potential. They are good now but they can become Tampa Bay circa 2008 good. The problem, they won’t be cheap and do not have the payroll flexibility of the Mariners or Angels.
The Angels minor league system is vastly under rated. There isn’t another system in baseball that produces higher quality arms as frequently as the Angels do. Even more arbitrary minor league arms in our system such as SOS, Trevor Bell, Anthony Ortega, would be regarded as very solid arms in other systems, back end of the rotation starters. The Angels have so many good pitchers that they don’t need backend starters, they can get away with using VERY HIGH upside arms like Reckling, Walden, Richards, SKaggs, Mesa-Martinez as back end starters. The Angels also produce mediocre position players constantly, but because of the team’s success, rarely get sure thing prospects from high school or college. Trout was a tremendous blessing, we took a gamble of Grichuk. Our scouting has proved to be superior because we’re able to get guys like Kendrick, Bourjos etc… in middle rounds.
Don't forget
They also took a hit when they traded their best prospect outside of Ackley and then some for Cliff Lee.
They traded Adam Jones for Erik Bedard. Think they’d like a do-over on that one? If their vaunted minor league system had produced a starting pitcher on the level of Felix (or good enough for a #2 or even #3), then the Ms don’t need to make that trade and Adam Jones is patrolling the OF at Safeco in 2010.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Mar 30, 2010 4:05 AM PDT up reply actions
They threw in George Sherril in that deal as well
Great Great organization
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
well
there is that. but turning a corner only puts yo on another street, and it is not necessarily Broadway.
That's hardly the point
If the Mariners’ minors system is so rarefied (as Cameron opines), then why was it necessary to trade away the consensus crown jewel of that system (Jones)—a player who figured to be under team control for six years, blocked by nobody—for two years of Bedard? Why wasn’t this fantastic minors system producing starting pitchers capable of obviating the need for the trade in the first place?
Look at the Angels’ rotations of 2009 and 2010: Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, Santana and Adenhart were all drafted by the team and developed within its system. Name me 5 starting pitchers from the Mariners’ organization of 2009 and 2010 who can equal that quintet, starting with Felix.
Then look at the infield: Morales, Kendrick, Aybar and Wood are all the product of Angels’ scouting, drafting and development. Name me an infield from the Mariners which matches this quartet for offensive and defensive talent and which will be as affordable for as long.
If there is a hole in Angel player development, it has been in the OF, and that was remedied with the draft of 2009 (and most likely in 2010)—the team was developing premiere INF prospects instead, guys like Sean Rodriguez who became trade bait for guys like Kazmir because they were superfluous in the Angel organization. But a thin pipeline in the OF does not make an entire minors system inferior.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Mar 31, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure what you're getting at.
Are you implying that your former GM of 1994–99 didn’t do a good job at providing the Mariners with enough depth to withstand the damages of trading for Erik Bedard? Or that your former GM didn’t turn the farm system into a premium level Ranger-quality farm system?
Either way, this is hardly news. What ol’ Bavasi did to both of our organizations is irrelevant except for the fact that our situation is more recent. And I’m sure we’re both thankful that he is no longer handling our organizations.
it's very clear you dont understand
Nor do you know much about Bill Bavasi and his history with the Angels.
Before he was GM of the team, Bavasi was in charge of player development; upon his promotion, that work went to Bob Fonaine. Without the hard, solid work from these two men, there is no World Championship team in 2002—no Salmon, Glaus, Erstad, Lackey, Frankie, Washburn, Anderson, Molina (2x), Shields or Percival. No Edmonds to be flipped for Adam Kennedy.
So, no, I don’t think Angels fans are afflicted with the same scornful, “goodbye and good riddance” attitude you hold. The Bill Bavasi who was GM of the Angels did a tremendous job building a very good core of players, especially working at times for difficult, erratic ownership.
But this was never about Bill Bavasi, it is about Cameron’s puzzling contention that the Angels need to rebuild—despite the fact that the starting infield is 25 (Wood), 26 (Morales, Aybar), 27 (Kendrick, Mathis) and 28 (Napoli). Saunders is 28, Weaver and Santana are 27 and Kazmir is 26. While Shields is 34, the setup job is transitioning to the 24 year old Jepsen. The fact is that the Moreno-era Angels have done an exceptional job of transitioning from veterans to younger players before the vet was a spent liability.
What Cameron did was observe the ages of the OF/DH and extrapolate from that a need for the entire team to rebuild. What makes this doubly ridiculous is that in his #6 ranking of the Mariners, he crowed about the nucleus of young players the team can build upon; somehow, Cameron sees that situation as completely different from what the Angels have assembled.
And don’t even get me started on the alleged superiority of the Seattle management. When we’ve seen Wakamatsu place a couple of Manager of the Year awards in his den at home and Seattle has seen postseason play a few years in a row, then it will be time for that conversation.
Otherwise, all we read was Cameron’s wishful thinking substituting for insight, knowledge and reasoning.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Apr 1, 2010 7:59 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks for clarifying.
All I was doing was answering your question about why the team needed to trade for Erik Bedard. My point is that they didn’t. Bavasi was just desperate to contend and save his job when the team wasn’t ready. Nothing we could do about that.
Did you ever stop to wonder...
…if maybe some of Bavasi’s problems were due to meddling by ownership, specifically Howard Lincoln?
Some owners get out of the way and let the hired management do its job, but others will dictate a need for some outcome on a timetable which may be purely arbitrary. Thus, the singings of Silva and the trade for Bedard might well have been dictated by an executive suite unwilling to wait for talent to ripen and looking to make the “bold move” to placate the fans.
I’m not saying Bavasi was a genius (or even an idiot savant), only that he showed genuine talent in Anaheim and I don’t know the circumstances under which he was allowed to operate in Seattle.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Apr 1, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Bavasi's problems were all Bavasi.
Howard Lincoln deals more in finances. Chuck Armstrong has more baseball knowledge of the two.
For the most part, Bavasi was allowed to run the organization as he saw fit. And whatever direction Bavasi went, ownership fully supported him. And as a result, ownership bashing jumped to an all-time high amongst the fanbase. After the 2007 season, everybody in that group thought they were ready to reclaim the division. Even worse, Bavasi seriously thought he was building off an 88-win team and thought Silva and Bedard put them over the top.
And since ownership was convinced, they stuck their necks out believing that the team has rose back to prominence. Then 2008 happened….whoops!
Ownership realized that they had a huge mess to clean up. They realized that the fans faith in their competence was as low as it ever was. Needless to say, everything rode on their decision to appoint the next GM.
Enter Jack Zduriencik.
I’m sure this blog doesn’t want to hear any more about Zduriencik so I’ll just say this: Ownership has given him total autonomy in terms of personnel and roster decisions.
So no, our ownership isn’t meddlesome. What ownership wanted (what any ownership wants), Bavasi couldn’t deliver.
Mea culpa
I wrote Abraham Lincoln, but I meant Stretch Armstrong.
Even if he drove the dagger in himself in Seattle, he did an excellent job overall in Anaheim.
"I can't tell people what to think or not to think. Their perceptions are their perceptions. We just feel we've taken a step forward. At the end of the day, we have to play 162 games. Once that happens then we'll be able to evaluate the offseason moves."~Tony Reagins, on the Angels' offseason
by George Kaplan on Apr 1, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
For what it’s worth, the farm system was a disaster when Pat Gillick stepped down in 2003. Bavasi did a nice job repairing it. Unfortunately, a couple of non-Mariner teams are enjoying the fruits of his labor (Indians: Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo)
Kotchman hitting 3rd? That’s a joke. Kotchman is a good defensive player, but he lacks offense. He hits an average of 15 HRs per year, and never passed 20 HRs in his career. Its like putting Bengie when he was with the Angels (if u guys remember , he wasn’t a very good hitter back then) in the 3-5 spot. That doesn’t work.
You obviously haven't read Lookout Landing then.
According to this, he’s virtually guaranteed to improve just because he’s moving to Safeco field, which is more homer-friendly in right field than his previous home parks and so on.
I stopped reading that when it started comparing Casey Kotchman to Joe Mauer based on an obscure statistical similarity or two. I’ve got no ill will at all towards Kotchman but come on, we thought the same thing for years about Casey and the same guys up in Seattle probably laughed. Now they’re grasping at every straw they can to tell us he’s gonna do well hitting 3rd in Seattle because he’s gonna be hitting 3rd in Seattle. It’s more likely that Kotchman has already shown how he will perform as a full-time big leaguer and won’t stray much away from his prior full-season campaigns.
This is an example of why I sometimes think that sabermetrics is to baseball what alchemy was to science so many centuries ago.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Or a stat
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 29, 2010 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Kotchman will be fine
Depending on what you’re expecting. It sounds like the delusional Mariner hopeful are expecting .310 40 DB 20 HR and 110 RBI. In reality I think they’ll get .285 35 DB 12 HR and 80 RBI.
Good for a #6-9 hitter, maybe even #5 in a pinch, but certainly not a #3 hitter. Players on our team more suited for the 3 hole than Casey Kotchman, everyone outside of Aybar and Mathis.
That just gives us a good idea as to the disparity between the two ball clubs. The Angels are deeper, more talented, better offense, more power, better rotation and better bullpen. Flash it up all you want, there’s just no way around this. The Mariners, as of right now look more like PRETENDERS.
we were hoping 20 Hr power for years
reality is that it just isn’t there. I loved Kotch’s glove and consistent hitiing approach — 6th or 7th hitter in the line-up at best.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Dude...
how did Fangraphs recruit the guy who did the movie Avatar to write for them? That’s AWESOME!
I love this team.
Easy...
Fangraphs: “We here you’re great at fantasy and science ‘fiction’, fancy a job?”
I see red people
snarky brits
you waited until that post to make a comment? lol
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Nope, I've dipped my toe in the water...
…here and there in the thread. But that one was a snark open goal (even if I can’t spell ‘hear’)
I see red people
by The Limey on Mar 31, 2010 9:25 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Cameron bases his "age" argument on our outfielders.
The thing is, in the Scioscia era, the Angels organization has seemed to focus on drafting/developing for every position BUT outfielders.We’ve developed an excess of catchers, starting pitchers, relief pitchers, corner infielders, and especially middle infielders. Off the top of my head, former Angel farm hands on other teams rosters include the Molina Brothers, Kotchmann, Figgins, Callaspo, Kennedy, Eckstein, Sean Rodriguez, Glaus, Lackey, Schoenweis, Ramon Ortiz, K-Rod, and Jenks.
I can’t think of one outfielder developed by the Angels on another MLB roster with the exception of Garrett Anderson and Jim Edmonds, both signed in the early to mid-90’s.
Until last year’s draft, the Angels appeared to have a long term strategy of getting outfielders/DH’s from the free agent market. And that explains the signings of Vlad, Guillen, Finley, Matthews, Hunter, Matsui, Abreu, Alphonso, and the trade for Rivera. Since they’re free agents, of course they’re relatively “…long in the tooth”.
As Mr. Welch (and others) have pointed out so well, the balance of the team is of young to moderate age. I think we will do just fine this year. There’s no need to re-build.
We started drafting oufielders last year
Somewhere on this site there’s a not-too-old post from me breaking down high draft picks by position (at time of drafting) during the Scioscia era, and with the exceptions of Kotchman and McPherson, everyone was a SS, 2Bman, C, or pitcher (maybe a CF thrown in?). Again, the team consciously changed direction before last draft, identifying corner outfielders with serious pop.
Also, Edmonds-Salmon-Anderson were all signed (IIRC) in the best three-year draft clump in team history: 1988-89-90.
Agreed.
That’s why I started the 3rd paragraph with ’Until last year…". I believe at least one of the draft picks will contribute on the MLB level (Trout? Grichuk?).
One other outfielder to throw into the “golden” clump was Erstad (although I believe he was drafted in ’95).
Who here actually believes the Angels.....
Don’t have the OF’s to last until Bourjos, Trout and Grichuk are ready. I mean this is simple.
2010: Rivera LF, Hunter CF, Abreu RF, Matsui DH, Napoli/Mathis C
2011: Rivera LF, Hunter CF, Bourjos/Abreu RF, Abreu/Napoli DH, Napoli/Mathis/Conger C
2012: Hunter LF, Bourjos CF, Abreu/Pettit/Trumbo RF, Abreu/Napoli DH, Napoli/Mathis/Conger C
2013: Grichuk LF, Bourjos CF, Trout RF, Napoli DH, C
This plan isn’t complicated.
Yep
And don’t forget that Rivera will only be 32-33 at the end of his current contract. Depending on whether Napoli or Mathis is still around and where Trout and Grichuk are in the system, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to bring him back for 2-3 more years as a DH/Corner OF. He seems like the kind of guy who can be signed for a reasonable amount of money too, given what he is making now.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 30, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
$%^ you Dave Cameron
bi0tch!
Angels 2009 WS Champs
With the exception of the post above mine...
…this thread has some great points of view. I’ve enjoyed reading them all.
My contribution generally seems like fart-and-ass jokes compared to the wisdom many of you bring.
The fart-and-ass jokes are pretty cool too (we like to nurture our inner child)
Curious: Matt is now listed as an “author” below; what exactly does that mean in the context of this website? I’m assuming it refers to bloggers “published” on the web, not actual published authors vis-a-vis the so-called “real world” of publishing, that is, printed published material.
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
I wrote a book about a politician in 2007
But that has nothing to do with the designation below. Rev can explain.
Cool
Yea Rev et al enlightened me on today’s game thread.
Did you publish it?
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
Ahhh that explains why Rev referred to you somewhere or other as a...
…staunch libertarian. I’m paraphrasing but now I get it.
I’ve always wanted to write a book but then I think everyone probably feels that way. The difference is that few get off their ass and do it.
Did you ever go through 31898254 doubts that no one frankly would give a shyte about what you have to say (i.e. just another Joe with a book)? Or do you need to take a super-positive approach and do it because it’s theraputic and/or a creative outlet?
And there's the huge issue of finding a publisher
besides your self
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
I'm dyslexic
I thought he was librarian. You know, bookish, with glasses. Having tea at 4:00? I should have read his magazine a little more closely.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Funny you should mention that...
I actually finished the rough draft I’ve been working on for the last 12-13 months last night. Now I have to read and edit it and then I’m going to have my brother and a few friends read it and give me their opinions and whatnot.
I have to say that just finishing the damn draft was a great experience and I already feel like a huge weight has been lifted. Now, editing it properly and finding a publisher like Raaddad said…well, one step at a time.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
It's a novel
It’s centered around 4 guys that live together and are friends from college. The main character has already graduated and is trying to start his career and whatnot, but can only find a dead-end sales job.
I pulled a lot of my ideas from the headlines over the past year or two as well as some of my own experiences (with some creative license taken of course). The story starts at the beginning of a major recssion and there is a popular (but controversial to some) liberal president taking office in the White House. Without going into too much detail, a group of domestic terrorists tries to kill the president and carries out some other attacks that, combined with some other factors, plunge the country into a second depression (with food lines and the whole nine yards). Public schools shut down, jobs dry up, and crime runs rampant. Everyone, including the four main guys in the story, is left with too much time on their hands and no opportunities. After a couple of catlysts, they decide to start fighting back on their own. There’s also a love story.
Basically, it starts with kind of an Office Space feel and then develops into sort of a Boondock Saints / Fight Club / SLC Punk story about youth and rebellion. If I had to compare to a novel, I’d say maybe Ragtime or The Great Gatsby. I’m not claiming I write that well at all, just my overall idea and the theme of the story is somewhat similar. Then again, I haven’t read either in ages so maybe I’m wrong.
The funny thing is, I outlined the entire thing from like Feb – May, 2008 shortly after I graduated and was getting denied for job after job while others were getting laid off and banks and corporations were failing everywhere. My entire idea was to imagine “well, what might happen if things got worse”. A year later, I’m seeing some of what I outlined last year and just finished writing in the news as recently as this week.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds good, bro--good luck!
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
Thanks
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 31, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Let me know if you need it copy-edited.
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
For sure
Just started doing my first round of self-editing from beginning to end, then I’ll be sending it out to my brother and some others to get some outside feedback in the next few weeks hopefully.
Who do you copy-edit for if you don’t mind my asking?
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Apr 1, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Just send me an email, and I'll give you some info.
arfrench at puc dot edu
"Precious in the sight of the Lord, is the death of His Saints." - Psalm 116:15 Rest In Peace, Nick.
Sent
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Apr 1, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
That's very cool of you, a4a
Every writer needs a good editor and copy editor.
My published book—a college textbook—had an army of editors.
My novel needs something more in the line of help from above…
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
To answer your questions: Not really, and sorta?
Been doing journalism since I was 18, and you learn very quickly that the more new information/analysis you come up with, the more people will be interested, regardless of whether you personally are a confused cipher or whatever. Also helps if you can put sentences together.
In the specific case of writing a book, which I did two decades into this racket, I knew from the experience of writing a couple of articles on the subject that I was making analyses no one had ever thought of before, and which many people both ignorant and super-knowledgeable about the subject found compelling/illuminating. So, no doubts.
Second half of your question — there were times between ages 18 and, oh, 23, where I had to bluff super-hard like I belonged where I desperately wanted to be, and there were plenty of moments afterward (until age 36) where the “super-positive approach” was essential in not getting discouraged by super-limited earnings or exposure. But no, it’s not really therapeutic/creative (with the exception, probably, of baseball-blogging), it’s more just what I do. For real creativity & release I pick up a guitar.
TMI, but you since you asked, etc.
Dude. You have SOOO much to learn...
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
I thank you for your patience, sir
An active mind is one which never stops learning.
George W. Bush
(just kidding)
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
Dude, why aren't you an "Author?"
Maybe a separate category for you: “Existential Comentator”; or “Enlightened Worldly Wordsmith.”
Or, to borrow from Rev: “The Voice of Wisdom that Will Take You All the Way ‘To the Grave and Beyond.’”
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
My wife has been beating me over the head for years to drift off into that direction.
I am saving myself for my retirement years. My career in computer technology pays way too much to walk away from all the fun I am having at my day job.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Heh I'm in IT and been doing it for a number of years...
(back in consulting for now)…and I can’t tell if you are sincere or mocking it all :P
Yeah, the $$$ can be there but the fun for me has slowly left. The industry has changed quite a bit and some of the reasons I entered are now null and void.
If I could do something else creative for a living and make a penny or two, #@&! I’d be gone so fast.
I am being sincere. I am still having an absolute blast.
I explain to folks that my career within IT is something akin to Forrest Gump. I hae happened to be at the exact right place at the exact right time to have an overall impact on the industry way beyond anything my skills actuall warrant.
You know those current Microsoft commercials, where common people claim Windows7 was their idea? Yeah, my career has been like that. The difference being that I got proof, and it has nothing to do with Windows7. Bigger shit, actually.
These days, I look upon SoCal IT as the “Permanent Employment Act For Competent IT Professionals”. So many doorknobs and knuckleheads with so much authority and so much funding wasting so many resources for their otherwise intelligent employers. Anybody who is even in the leasst bit capable ass a business analyst can find a multitude of customers in need.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
I'd read your book.
your life in IT is like mine in tax. Not only not planned, but I actually tried like hell to move away from the specialty that is now putting my kids through college.
Competent IT — in Pepsi that is an oxymoron
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Nerd? More like friggin' asshat that you would love to strangle nearly day.
I am the guy you can isolate as “ground zero” for forcing Planet Earth to put in a logon ID and password whenever we start working with Microsoft Windows. Just one of my many charms.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
what?
you lost me after “nearly day”
obviously your model is much more expensive than mine…or something like that.
It's Always Somethin'
It was supposed to have been "...strangle nearly every day."
In simple terms:
A) whenever you use a Microsoft Windows operating system
B) whenever you have to log on using an ID and password
C) my fault.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Got any market suggestions
so we can share in your brilliance and fortune, oh Super Nerd?
Sounds like you’ve helped keep us safe and warm at night as we get cozy with our laptops and PC’s
"You been putting it up your whole life. You just didnt know it" Anton Chigurh
I did. But my time has past.
Way back before you knew all about them, I could have recommended Microsoft, Intel and Cisco.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
P.S. When I did the logon thing, it had nothing to do with keeping anybody safe.
It was only so that I could make sure that each person who used a computer, which were shared a lot back then, was presented with their own desktop, settings, icons, shortcuts, applications, and network resources.
Viruses and malicious behavior was not very common back then, so it never occured to me.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
its your fault
well i will wave my fist and my macbook at you.
Aybar is a nowhere man, Sitting in his Nowhere Land, Making all his nowhere plans for nobody.
by princeton11loveshalos on Apr 1, 2010 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions
You mac kiddies never fail to amuse.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
so far our guys haven't incorporated that yet
but then again, we’re about two operating systems behind.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Hmmm...Nerds must mean
you get to live in a really big house and you sleep with trophy wives.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
It was prolly true then as well
Henry Winkler may be one of the biggest nerds in Hollywood
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Judging by the murals on the middle field level deck supports
I would say Angels management agrees with Cameron. There are an awful lot of murals of guys on the order of Don Baylor, Rod Carew, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, etc., but not one of the current team. (There are some at the very bottom of the stadium, though.)
It really looks like management is hedging their bets, at least from a marketing standpoint.
Witty .sig goes here.
I think it's more trying to fit in with the "tradition" theme of the year
Which goes hand in hand with the All-Star Game. Showing the folks that yeah we do have a history too.
There is a serious flaw in the Fangraphs rankings
Not enough emphasis was placed on team financial profiles. I would have incorporated the team’s finances, along with the blend of current talent, future talent, and management, in order to rank MLB teams.
Unfortunately, MLB teams do not have to disclose audited financial statements. However, Forbes provides a yearly assessment of the value of each MLB franchise. The 2010 valuations aren’t ready yet, but here is the link to the 2009 valuations.
This is really fantastic stuff, as Forbes discusses team value (including a valuation breakdown), revenues, payroll, debt, etc.
Here is the top 10 (based on current Team Value)
1) Yankees
2) Mets
3) Red Sox
4) Dodgers
5) Cubs
6) Angels
7) Phillies
8) Cardinals
9) Giants
10) White Sox
I’m not suggesting that teams be ranked by finances alone. But it’s a very important aspect with regards to achieving and maintaining on-field success.
I agree with this.
I am also waiting for the 2010 Forbes data. I have accumulated all the data they have published on the Halos to date (the earlier years included less information, so not everything carries forward throughout). My reason for doing this was to be well-armed when people comment about the Angels team finances, and what they can afford versus what they cannot.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...

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