Hank Conger Is Cool, Scott Kazmir Is Hot: Halolinks

But maybe even more so than that, Napoli and Matsui. Napoli could be like I know your [stuff] and takes him Deep. And then Matsui could just be like haunting Boston fans again.

It is, on its best days, an attempt to apply the scientific method to the understanding of the measurable art form known as baseball. Within that broad tendency there are all sorts of divisions, and differing ideas about how to measure and evaluate, let alone predict, stuff.

Unfortunately, I think, it has become too synonymous both with prediction systems (which are the junk bonds of sabermetrics) and a generalized intellectual assholery. That aside, what it is not is a unified theory of how baseball works. Sam Miller, Rich Lederer, and even gadfly jackasses like me dabble in sabermetrics, and we all think (at least Lederer & I for sure) that prediction systems that consistently get the Angels dead wrong are as pompous as they are inaccurate.

…and the handful of other prediction systems that have gained popularity, and then you’ll be fine. But I see Matt has already said the same thing.

Really, Nate, sabermetrics is only this: using data and a little math to attempt to better describe and analyze the game. Oh, and questioning as many assumptions and conventions as possible.

The fact that some folks that gain a little knowledge and then go out chestbeating and half-informed about the very metrics they’re flashing around isn’t unique to sabermetrics. It happens in political forums and Yelp threads as well — basically anywhere someone has an opinion and a flamethrower and wants to use them.

as is Arte.

Even when he was the strike out champion, he still only recorded 1 complete game in his career.

The only real way he can last longer is by adding more movement to his pitches, or finding a new pitch that can finish guys off quicker, both take years and years to achieve.

I would be happy if Kaz can hit 7-8 innings consistently. I don’t expect any complete games from him this upcoming season.

:(

…to be still complaining about sabermetric “arrogance”.

It’s like, okay — a couple obnoxious sophomores pestered you about win shares and VORP in some fan forum at some point, or you got annoyed at Rob Neyer’s Billy Beane man-crush — but it’s awfully thin-skinned and mentally weak to be so emotionally wounded by those experiences that you arm yourself with a thousand associational fallacies and generalize to a whole community of divergent voices working on extending statistical analysis to game contexts.

I think it’s just a variant on Mark Whicker syndrome. Whicker thinks all bloggers are nosepicking basement-dwellers living with their parents. Why? Because he’s a bit behind the curve, nervous about the new kids on the block, and clinging to some phantom tradmed cred he hallucinates in his own mind. It gives him a pre-emptive defense against obsolescence or the tough work of learning something new.

Same thing with the self-saying victims of sabermetric “statboys” and “fucktards”. In the end, it’s just a convenient dodge to blame one’s distaste for sabermetrics on some random personalities rather than admit that a lot of the new metrics have value, and are more descriptive than old conventions like batting average and fielding percentage. The fact that many of the prediction systems are flawed and suck doesn’t mean that many of the descriptive statistics and sabermetric analysis of outcomes aren’t quite useful.

Let’s face it: math and science education sucks in this country, and many people get anxious as fuck the minute they hear the words “standard deviation” or “normal distribution” and remember the moment they dropped out of pre-calc or fell asleep in statistics class. That’s fine. But it doesn’t invalidate statistics or diminish the utility of statistical analysis. It just means that those anxious types aren’t in their comfort zones and need to rail about it.

Or maybe they’re just getting old.