Um, why are the Mariners expected to win the 2010 season?
by phoenix15 on Mar 9, 2010 8:56 PM PST
Email
PrintAlmost every non Angel fan for some reason says that the Mariners will win the 2010 season. Im asking why. Seems to me the Mariners may have upgraded on pitching and defense, but completely unraveled the offense. The 2 offensive Branyan and Beltre have left letting 2 golden glove defenders, but with little pop to fill in. The pitching staff may have been upgraded, but what about the catching staff? Johjima, who was the better offensive catcher is now gone. Johnson, although is an good defensive catcher is like Mathis. No pop, plus the Ms cant keep using Johnson and will have to rely on a unproven minor leaguer ( and they bash Wood for not being proven). The Angels have kept the status quo, but have more pop but less speed. Wood will easily outhit Figgy, and Matsui with his patience can drive in runs in crucial situations. The bullpen although not led by veteran Oliver, but another veteran returns (Shields) and Jepsen, Bulger, have gained experience both in the regular and postseason. In my opinion, the Rangers are the more well-balanced team. Here's what i expect from the AL West.
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Mariners
4. Oakland
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
115 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Because
trendiness, wishful thinking, and misguided hostility reign supreme when your team has the audacity to consistently outperform statistical abstracts that uber-nerds are too fucking lazy to try to find reasoning for.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 9, 2010 10:02 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Not that I think the M's will win,
but this is a team with Ichiro and Figgy (maybe 1300 PAs of say .385 OBP) setting the table for Bradley (and his three-seventy-odd-plus OBP) and Lopez’s power behind that. That alone is pretty impressive, and adding in the pitching and defense with Gutierrez, Ichiro, Figgy, and Kotch seems to make this squadron more than qualified to take the West.
And the Angels are certainly worse than last season. Not BAD, just not as good.
Not that the M’s will win, of course, but it’s certainly not an unreasonable expectation.
The Rangers are worrisome as well. Looks like tough sledding this season.
One of Ichiro's prime assets to OBP
is his speed…and he has lingering hamstring issues. His average could easily fall into the low .300s again, putting his OBP more likely into the .360s range. Same can be said for Figgins…you’ve pegged BOTH men as performing above their career averages in OBP, despite both using their speed to get those OBP numbers and both being on the wrong side of 30…one of them considerably.
You’re also assuming Bradley gets enough at-bats (be it injury issues of clubhouse issues) to be putting up a large sample sized .370, rather than 200 PAs of it.
This is a team that was 28th in runs scored last year, 29th in OBP, and 23rd in SLG. They’ve added nothing to change the SLG issue, one player who can be counted on to change the OBP number, and nothing more.
And their rotation? Yeah, Lee and Hernandez are a downright filthy 1-2 punch. But I’d put up the 2008 Bees against their 3-4-5 guys and feel good about my chances.
Our rotation is deeper and stronger, our offense is unquestionably better rounded. They win on defense, and until we know which versions of our various bullpen arms are going to show up, I’m not going to talk about bullpen one way or the other.
And for all this pythag talk regarding the Angels, let’s not forget that that piece of shit frappucino machine up north outperformed their expectation by TEN GAMES last year, and were by that measurement a sub-.500 team.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 9, 2010 10:48 PM PST up reply actions
I wasn't making it up
I knew he had a LEG injury last year, and I knew he had a HAMSTRING issue in 2008. I didn’t realize they weren’t both hamstring issues. The point is exactly the same…a man who relies on his speed who has had leg issues appear in the past and is already old is an increasing liability.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Ichiro has had his leg injuries and still rated in the top 10 baserunners in baseball, as well as demonstrating plus range in RF.
by EnglishMariner on Mar 11, 2010 5:51 AM PST up reply actions
Man you guys don't listen
I give up.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 11, 2010 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
and Ichiro is a great sushi chef
and makes funny commercials and IS GETTING OLDER. How does this not factor into the equation? age=slower age=increased chance of injury age=dimished hand-eye coordination. You give up too easy. Ichiro may not be done, but he’s one year closer to it.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Hold on, I gotta mark this day on my calendar
the first time in the history of man that someone has claimed that I give up too easy.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 11, 2010 10:42 PM PST up reply actions
OH NO I'M NOT TAKING THAT FOR AN ANSWER
AND GIVING UP SO EASILY…NOT MY STYLE
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 11, 2010 11:12 PM PST up reply actions
Given your nick and style...
I’m having visions…
Minus the red gloves, of course. You only use those on game day.
What you are forgetting
When and if he is not effective in the field and on the bases he will instantly transform himself into a lights out reliever. WAR +5? +6?
Play Wood already. Willits sucks.
The reason that the fact of his age not being a factor is easy to explain
He doesn’t play for the Angels. If he did, like Bobby Abreu and Tori Hunter do, than he would suddenly be projected to be a slowing old man who is a detriment in the outfield. Thank goodness for him he is playing on a team where age is not a negative factor. Look at Griffy, he is simply sure to hit 25-30 bombs with broken down body of his. Count on it!
"Pie Iesu domine, dona eis requiem".
Sure,
but Matsui’s knees could implode, Torii’s hamstring could snap, Howie’s bat could disappear, and an earthquake could swallow the Big A, all reducing the Angel’s chances. Talking about potential injury that, or clubhouse sulking this is beside the point, as those factors can happen to any team at any time.
I hate to argue on stat minutaie (much as I love me some juicy stats!), but Bradley hasn’t had an OBP as low as .370 since 2006, and Figgy’s OBP since 06 is about .385, so I’m right on anyway. I’m pegging the M’s performances based mostly on last season (sue me!), just as we would basically expect 30 bombs from Morales and 390 OBP from Abroyo. No trickery, just prognosticating.
Just gotta disagree with the OP, though. The M’s have a great shot, and there’s no reason to describe picking them as unreasonable.
Not that they’re going to win it:), as I agree the Angels are still better.
I didn't project the Angels for a reason in my post
We’re talking about the M’s.
And the point is simple: you’ve essentially given the M’s a “best case scenario” breakdown on offense. The M’s were arguably the worst offensive team in baseball all of last year. And what have they done to change that? Essentially, nothing. They’ve taken a team that was outscored by more than 50 runs last year and done to their offense essentially nothing. How this makes a team a sudden contender is just baffling.
You’re right, Bradley hasn’t OBP’d below .370 since then. He is quite good at getting on base. That’s not the point. Since that time, he’s also averaged 339 at-bats a year. Is 339 at-bats of good, but not fantastic OBP going to take a team from the cellar of baseball offense to even league average? No, it’ll probably take them from 29th to 27th in a good year.
In regards to your dismissal to my injury/clubhouse cancer comments? That’s absurd. Of course anything can happen to any team at any time. But a few things:
1) We’re not talking about “potential” injury in regards to Ichiro or Figgins. We’re talking about two players whose KEY asset is their speed who are over 30. There’s a reason Carl Lewis wasn’t competing in the 110m hurdles in Beijing, and it’s not that he had prior arrangements. When you OBP well because of your infield hit ability and don’t walk all that often (Ichiro), a loss of speed translate to a loss in value…significantly. Figgins has developed a definite asset in drawing walks. But he’s become easier to catch on the bases, severely reducing his major asset. Expecting two 30+ (one 35+ at that) speedsters to continue an upward trend in OBP that exceeds their career averages is just not smart.
2) Can clubhouse cancer happen to any team in any year? Of course it can. But just like real cancer, my money is on the 45 year old 3-pack-a-day smoker who works in a coal mine (Bradley) rather than the 16 year old whose closest experience to second hand smoke was his inhaling fumes off of dad’s denim jacket from an ’87 Replacements concert (most player on the Angels).
3) The analogy to Morales hitting 30 bombs is fairly bogus. You’re projecting two 30+ year old players with declining key assets to outperform their career averages, and saying that’s the same thing as one of us projecting a young, rising star to continue his projectable success from last year to this year, with no significant improvement (technically a slight regression if going by homers alone).
And don’t get me started on Jose Lopez. Really? Lopez? Yeah, 25 homers from the SS spot. If this was fantasy baseball, I’d be happy to take that in the 9th round. But this is real baseball, and that’s the only stat he has worth a damn. He OBPs closer to .300 than .310 and has shown no signs of improving that. And his 25 homers in 613 at-bats comes out to a merely “good” 1 out of 24.5. The A.L. average was once every 31.3. And keep in mind this is THE cornerstone of the team’s offensive power. And his ISO for his career is .109. Branyan, the man responsible for 1/5th of their home runs last year, is gone. With the iffy-exception of Lopez, there isn’t a sure bet in the lineup to crack 20 home runs. With the exception of Ichiro, there isn’t anyone I feel comfortable projecting over an .800 OPS over a full season of at-bats.
Their offense is terrible.
TERR-I-BLE.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 9, 2010 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Well said
"Pie Iesu domine, dona eis requiem".
by ArchAngel_7 on Mar 10, 2010 12:31 AM PST up reply actions
How are you not talking about "potential injury" when discussing Ichiro and Figgins?
Neither has shown any sign of having injury problems. That is wishful thinking.
And Lopez doesn’t play SS.
Because you clearly didn't read my post
I’m not talking about injuries…I’m talking about AGING (if you knew who Carl Lewis was or how to read, it might have helped). Speed is the biggest asset for both Speed declines with age. One man is 37 later this year. The other is 32. Counting on both to continue to be as fast as ever (excuse me, it wasn’t a HAMSTRING issue last year, it was an unidentified LEG issue), and to IMPROVE on career OBP numbers is just plain and simply fucking stupid.
And my SS line was a slip. I’m sorry I mistook your mediocre .300 OBP middle infielder for your other mediocre .300 OBP middle infielder.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Wow, anger issues.
Hostility abounds?
by snowhor on Mar 10, 2010 4:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
I don’t see it.
Just a little annoyed by a guy come over from LL for no apparent reason other than to snip at one line out of 30 in some half-baked effort to undermine my posts with a handful of one-liners (scroll down).
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 4:41 PM PST up reply actions
I guess I was fooled by the 114-paragragh essay littered w/ a drunken martha stewart-esque foul mouth language throughout this thread.
Just seemed like a bit of an over-reaction.
by snowhor on Mar 10, 2010 5:50 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I count three cuss words from me north of this post.
maybe I’m overlooking one or two.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
I should have kept reading
you didn’t give up at all. LIAR!!
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Figgins does have injury problem
Figgins lost around 100 games to injury in 2007 and 2008. His first year staying healthy in awhile was 2009. Kotchman also has a long history of injury… as a fan of both I can tell you both of these guys are great when healthy, but all too often are not healthy. However even at their best, they dont stack up to the potential of Morales and Wood at the corners… two guys with more power, more offensive tools and a history of health. Wood also matches Figgins on defense
Jose Lopez
Is inferior to our 6th place hitter, Juan Rivera. Also inferior to #7 and 8, Kendrick and Napoli.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 10, 2010 9:24 PM PST up reply actions
In case you missed it...
The gospel has come down. You don’t need to read any further.
No, really… Don’t read any further.
Oh man, that Los Angeles Angels of (insert location that is silly here) joke NEVER GETS OLD EVER LOLOLOLOLO
ROFMAMOAMOMAOMAOMFLAOOOOOLOL
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
One reason is that the team seems to have a coherent (and smart) Plan
Which people tend (rightly, to some extent) to give extra credit for. Wakamatsu imported Angels-style baseball organization-wide, and the front office has gone hog-wild on advanced defensive understanding/deployment. I could see them continuing to overshoot their Pythag (Angels-style) while continuing to make retread pitchers look decent, and good pitchers look phenomenal, with that defense.
What they need to contend are a healthy Bradley, and Kotchman living up to even 75% of his initial promise. These things are at least plausible, though I think they’ll come in 2nd.
This is why:
Crack, Felix Hernandez, ESPN, Jack Z OMGZ1!!!!!, +Chone Figgins – Adrian Beltre = ?, Cliff Lee, Ecstacy, Dozens of articles by East Coast analysts, More crack, Milton Bradley + 5 or 6 other old, half-injured, or marginal players that looked shiny at the time, More ESPN, out of crack – move to 100% pure Colombian uncut, Everclear, Gainer off the couch…DUDE! The Mariners are gonna win!!!
Does that explain it?
After waking up in the morning and having a Starbucks, most intelligent baseball fans realize the Mariners have an outside chance at the division but still have to get past the Rangers and, more importantly, the Angels.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
The Mariners have excellent run prevention and a low-power, high contact offense.
Sound like a certain team about three years ago?
If I remember that team won the same division
Everyone needs to quit this shit before we all look like Lookout Landing Emokids who might eat a huge plate of crow at the end of the ceiling. Do you really want these posts thrown back in your face for the next fifteen years?
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
I don't mind as long as the legions ready to crown the Mariners now don't mind the same treatement
The West has not been this balanced or competitive for a long time. The M’s, Rangers and Angels are all about the same when it comes to pitching, with the Angels probably being the most balanced. The M’s have the best defense, but the Angels and Rangers aren’t that much worse.
Offensively, the Rangers and Angels can both bury the Mariners and I believe this will be their downfall. On the days Lee and Felix don’t pitch, and even possibly when they do, great defense isn’t going to do much against balls hit over or off of the fence, or lined into the gaps. The Angels still have plenty of that speedy, contact oriented talent left and now have more power and patience in the middle to complement it. It is more balanced and dynamic than the Mariners’ offense and so is the Rangers’. Pitching and defense will keep you in the hunt, but you’ve got to score to win. As of right now, I don’t believe the Mariners can do that.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 10, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
Over-simplifications are fun
merely having the same very general basic make-up doesn’t make two teams necessarily comparable.
Are they high contact? If by that you mean they don’t K a lot, sure. But do they generate hits? No. They batted .258 as a team last year and didn’t add any substantial AVG threats to the lineup.
Assuming you mean the 2007 Angels, we also slugged 15 points higher as a team that year than the M’s did last year…the rough difference between us and the Red Sox. We OBP’d 31 points higher in 07 than the Mariners did in 09. For reference, that’s the same differential as the 09 Angels and 09 Royals. The 07 Angels hit 26 points higher than the 09 Mariners…the difference between us and the Nationals in 09.
So sure, a bunch of scrappy-do nothings who don’t K. And instead ground out, pop-up, fly out, or otherwise fail to reach base.
What everyone seems to fail to realize is this wasn’t some mediocre offense that was a couple pieces or a big bat short of the puzzle (a la the 07 Angels). It was an offense as bad as, or worse than, any other in baseball. It was putrid. It scored less than 4 runs a game and got on base at a .314 clip. Every team in baseball except the Giants did better…the Pirates, the Nationals, the Royals, the Padres, the Reds, hell…the AAA Mets finished 21 points higher. They were downright fucking AWFUL. And to resolve this horribly pressing issue, to address their offensive woes, they not only failed to add an impact bat, but they LOST their biggest power threat to an already anemic lineup.
And who the fuck makes up 60% of their rotation again?
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Aw, I missed you!
Run prevention at this level is quite impressive. They are going to have maybe the highest UZR+ team in history this year with plus plus defenders everywhere, not to mention have the best defensive players at both 1B and CF by quite a bit last year. The two beasts they have at the head of the rotation may be a corner stone to lead the other 3 guys to some success. Its not very often you have a right handed and left handed starter anchoring your rotation that are both in their primes and are also arguably the best pitchers in the respective league.
They added high contact, high walk players in the form of Figgins and Milton McThrowBottle. I personally think they have two leadoff hitters followed by six or seven hitters that would bat 7th in any normal lineup. There is no question that the Mariner’s offense is going to be pathetic at best.
That being said, I see them picking up a A Gon, Crawford, or another FA to be to solidify the lineup and prepare for the stretch run. With that kind of run prevention, you only need a few runs.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
I get the run prevention part, which is why I don't address it.
But the problem is that a defense can only prevent so many runs…at a certain point some need to be scored as well. And counting on two top tier pitchers (one of whom is really still more of a student than a teacher) to carry their performances over to a 3-4-5 of awfulness is a lot to ask of anyone. 60% of their rotation will likely regularly stake the M’s to 3-4 run deficits that, statistically speaking, they aren’t likely to overcome with any frequency. Every single off-day from Felix or Cliff, particularly when they are matched up to another team’s 1-2 pitchers, is also a HUGE problem. I don’t see the upside from Snell, Rowland-Smith, Feierabend, etc. that makes them capable of producing better results just because they have better tutelage.
Again, since it bears repeating, their biggest power threat is gone this year. IF you think you can count on Bradley to not be what he was for the ‘09 Cubs again, and IF you think you can count on him to reach 500 plate appearances (a feat only accomplished twice in his career), you still have to concede that he is more than likely not to replicate the overall OPS production given them by Branyan last year. His presence is a wash with what was lost. I’m tempted to say with his personality problems, he’s potentially even a net loss over last year.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Ichiro will bat 3rd and hit 20 HR
Bradley will have 900 at bats, hit .540 and show us all how its done.
The offense is lacking, yes. I think the run prevention will make up for it. Even with the 3-4-5 being not amazing.
Do they win 100 games and take the West? No, probably not.
Will it be a close 3-way race in the division? I think it will be.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
To REALLY over-simplify
I’ll just do this:
Us: one of the best offenses in baseball
Them: one of the absolute worst
Us: a solid 1-5 of #2 and #3 starters
Them: a spectacular 1-2 punch, followed by 3 #5/#6s
Us: an above average, but fairly pedestrian defense with obvious strengths (Rivera/Aybar) and glaring weaknesses (Abreu, possibly Kendrick, and a question mark at 3rd)
Them: likely the best defense in baseball
So if the rotations are a wash (they are for all immediate purposes), then that leaves them with one of the worst offenses and THE best defense. It leaves us with one of the best offenses, and a solid, unspectacular defense.
Just looking at last year, we scored 883 runs. Let’s be conservative and project a major regression to, say, 800 runs. Assume they improve to, say, 680 (from 640). Is their rotation/defense combo better than ours by that 120 run disparity? I tend to heavily doubt it.
I see them hanging around for a little while so that Lookout Landing can be the douchebag gloat-whores they are, into, say, June or July. Then they collapse in time to finish somewhere between 7-12 games behind us. In third.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
*With the added caveat
that I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them finish sub-.500.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
Sounds about right.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 10, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
We are projected to be very middle of the pack next year in terms of offense
So, I cannot agree with you on the “one of the best offenses in baseball” thing.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
We are projected as such every year
and when it starts being accurate, I’ll live with their projections as easily as you do.
883 runs last year. In my above estimate, I shaved more than a half a run a game off of our average from 2009 before coming to the conclusions of the above post. That’s more than fair, especially considering all we lost were Figgins and Guerrero…a Guerrero whose 2009 numbers are a low-balled estimate for what Matsui should do THIS year.
And for every thing that can be said about the 2009 Angels overperforming and regressions in the coming year, I can point to counter-examples. Is Howie Kendrick going to bat .230 for the first half of the year? Are more than a dozen pitchers, most of them unqualified to pitch in the bigs yet, going to take the starting mound? Will our bullpen spend the first several months with an ERA over 6.00 again, or will that be corrected by the obvious and sustainable improvements in people like Bulger, Jepsen, and the return of Shields?
So unless you think we regress even HARDER than 83 runs, then that still leaves a huge disparity in runs scored for the Mariners to pick up with their gloves and their pitching.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 1:58 PM PST up reply actions
I wonder whose made up magic numbers are going to be more accurate!?
Honestly man, I just dont care enough about you to waste time arguing. So you win, your numbers you made up prove you correct.
Here is a cookie.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
I want oatmeal chocolate chip
My “made-up” numbers don’t have a seven year track record of being wrong, like all the various projection systems out there do.
I wasn’t trying to prove anything correct or wrong…merely questioning how in the fuck, even with a significant offensive regression for our team and a modest increase for theirs, they still make up a 100+ run gap in runs from us.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
I dont know, I just like half-assedly arguing with you
lets not screw up a good dynamic.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
What does the Oracle say?
;)
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 10, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm, I think you were using the wrong incense
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 11, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Kendrick and Wood are NOT defensive liabilities
Wood is known for great glove work, tremendous range and strong arm, Kendrick known for steady D, good range and a quick turn. Ill give you Abreu isnt a great defensive outfielder. But the Angels have plus fielders at 1st, 2nd, SS, 3B, CF and C. Also Izturis backs up all infield spots with spectacular glove work. The Angels defense is always understated… but defense is a big part of how Scioscia builds his teams. These guys wouldnt be here if they couldnt deliver with the glove.
Legend has it
that after Alaric, King of the Visigoths, had sacked the city of Rome in 410 AD, he piled a massive weight of armor on an enormous scale and told the surviving Senators that in order to ransom their city back, they must match its weight in gold. When the Senators that the weight was too great, Alaric threw his own large sword onto the pile and said “Woe be it to the defected.” If the M’s do win the division, there fans will have a right to talk trash and brag about their victory, but until they do, that right is ours! We should revel in it while it lasts!
"Pie Iesu domine, dona eis requiem".
And legend also has it
that at the Battle of Thermopylae, upon hearing that the arrows of the Persians would be so numerous that they would darken the skies, Dienekes responded “So much the better…then we shall fight our battle in the shade.”
And our response to the numeric onslaught from the heathe’Ms of the north shall be “So be it…for the only number that we shall need for ourselves is…ONE.”
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
by Stirrups on Mar 10, 2010 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Defeated, not defected.....
never post with your dumbass smartphone
"Pie Iesu domine, dona eis requiem".
by ArchAngel_7 on Mar 10, 2010 11:02 PM PST up reply actions
oh...I thought you meant defecated
as in “I shit on you stinking Mariners”
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
just to let u know
i had a midterm on early middle ages. Alaric f*&#$# the Romans up, but my favorite had to be Odoacer. Comes into Rome and basically says the emperor is inferior to him. Then he proceeds to be King of Italy from 476-493 until Theodoric the Great kicks his ass.
Aybar is a nowhere man, Sitting in his Nowhere Land, Making all his nowhere plans for nobody.
by princeton11loveshalos on Mar 13, 2010 8:36 AM PST up reply actions
The Halos aren't the "Sexy" pick
As has been mentioned, people get bored of the same thing all the time. I get bored of ham and cheese sandwiches everyday. So, it is with the Angels. Each year they befuddle the sabermetric experts and win their division. So the so called experts sigh, “Boring!”
The Mariners, with all their new players, with Junior on his farewell tour, with Ichiro and a GM who seems to almost compulsively collect players, are the sexy pick.
This is also when all those pundits try to look like geniuses by picking dark-horses. That way, if the Mariners win the west, they all can beat their chests and say, “See, I am smarter than you.” If they are wrong, they probably will figure that we have forgotten by then.
by righteous halo on Mar 10, 2010 12:33 PM PST reply actions
The sabermetric folks and the Mariners fans all believe the West is wide open and can
be one by any of the four teams. The notion that Mariners fans think the division belongs to them, and are using sabermetrics to show they are the clear choice is make believe.
The sabermetric folks think the division is wide open every year
If you’ve got the time, go ahead and check this out:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=3281574&categoryid=2521705
“BEDARD MAKES MARINERS THE FAVORITE.”
That’s right, there’s your 2008 headline! “It will be a highly contested race”
How many games did we win the division by again? 161?
And no, it’s not a four team race. It is, at absolute best, a three team one.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
That counter-argument is terrible.
Only ESPN and the local media exercised the thought the Mariners were favorites in 2008. Most everyone else figured that the team COULD make a run for the division if a lot of things went right.
The 2007 offseason/2008 team received NOWHERE NEAR the amount of praise the 2009 offseason/2010 team has received.
I suspect that a lot of people here believe the West will be a tight race.
Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch
I actually hope it is
makes winning it that much more fun, and just like ArchAngel_7’s Romans, makes their day a whole lot worse.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Steve Phillips is now considered a member of the sabermetric community?
The M’s saber community actually hated the Bedard trade and knew that team was going to stink (not 100 game stink).
No, the Steve Phillips video was just an aside
the only community Phillips belongs to is LOLSville.
Sabermetrics routinely pick the Angels to finish significantly worse than they invariably do. Often by margins as large as 10 or so games.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/division-projections-for-2007/
http://thejuice.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1135506.html
and now?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=ana
And that’s about 2 minutes worth of searching. Divisions we’re routinely supposed to ‘eek out’ we’ve won by an average of more than 12 games each of the last three years? Sounds pretty bogus to me. So when I look at 2010, and see our team is not only supposed to regress, but finish in LAST PLACE with a worse record than the Nationals, and 77 wins to our name? I’ll pass.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 10, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
Seattle = mid '70's Angels
when i was young, i was geeked about my mid 70’s Angels teams.
Tanana and Ryan at the top of the rotation. Nettles and Rivers setting the table (so what if we didn’t have power, we had TABLE SETTERS!!), plus good manager/front office in Williams/Daulton, an old SUPERSTAR past his prime – Frank Robinson/Bobby Bonds.
and then those mid 70’s Halo teams went on to win in the range of mid 70 wins each year.
Put me down for the M’s in 3rd place with 75 wins – no power and no rotation depth, even with two studs at the top. I’ve seen this before – this team isn’t strong enough to win, and Milton always works out to be a detriment, not an asset.
When were the Angels not counted as an offensive threat? The 09 Angels scored the 2nd most runs in both leagues, only being outscored by the Yankees.
yeah but didn't you hear?
we lost figgy and he took all of our offensive capabilities with him over to seattle. we’re done for now… what are we gonna do without figgy running buck wild on the bases?!?!?!?
we’re just being overlooked, as always. let’s get back to this around the all-star break and see if the wonder-quartet of hernandez/lee/ichiro/figgy are dragging the rest of their team to first place and beyond.
"come on, eileen."
"Dragging" - I like that you used that
Because if what you described does happen, that’s exactly how it’s gonna go down.
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 10, 2010 6:21 PM PST up reply actions
Still no.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
Its never fashionable to pick the front runner
People are picking the Ms because they want a story. And the pre season hype gives them that story.
But they arent looking at the pieces… they are looking only at the hype.
If you were building a team, who would you take?
1B Kendry Morales or Casey Kotchman? All Kendry did was put together an MVP season with crazy power, clutch hitting and solid defense. (big advantage Angels)
2B Jose Lopez or Howie Kendrick – Kendrick hit for a higher average and is pegged as a top ten hitter with growing power, Jose Lopez hit for more power. (advantage Ms- but could be advantage Angels if Kendrick hits like he did in the 2nd half and his power continues to develop)
SS JackWilson or Erick Aybar – Aybar led the team in hitting, plays sparkling defense and has blazing speed. Wilson hasnt really ever shown much yet. (advantage Angels)
3B Figgins or Wood – Figgins is a plus defender, strong arm, fast and good OBP. He is also losing a step, and strikes out a lot for a slap hitter. Wood has been a prized prospect for years who is a plus defender, strong arm and off the charts power. (advantage Ms – but could well be advantage Angels if Wood’s power transfers to the major leagues)
C Napoli vs Johnson (advantage Angels)
RF Ichiro vs Abreu (pick em or slight advantage Ms for defense)
CF Gutierrez or Hunter (big advantage Angels)
LF Bradley or Rivera (advantage Angels)
DH Griffey or Matsui – If this were the late 90s it would be a different answer (big advantage Angels)
Lee/ Hernandez or Weaver / Kazmir.Weaver and Kazmir have potential to be great, Lee and Hernandez already are (advantage Ms)
Bedard/ Rowland Smith/ Snell or Saunders, Santana, Pineiro (big advantage Angels)
Bullpen (advantage Angels)
Depth (advantage Angels)
Coaching (advantage Angels)
recent success and winning intangibles (advantage Angels)
When you break through the hype and look at the details and the players, it looks more and more like the Angels win again… and like before win big. But the spring is when everyone thinks they have what it takes. And the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Cards are not the glamour pics. Its when everyone else talks about how they think they caught the big boys.
Pfft, I don't even take Lopez as 'advantage M's' over Kendrick
Kendrick bats higher than Lopez OBPs.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 11, 2010 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
This is a fun comparison
but in reality it’s never “Kendrick vs. Lopez = bigger picture” it’s “Kendrick vs. opposing pitcher(s) on any given day + Kendrick vs. batted ball on any given day + team-wide results = bigger picture.”
I have no problem saying that the Angels, on paper, have a better team than the Mariners do. But the gap isn’t as significant as you seem to be suggesting here. Just as we shouldn’t presume best case scenario, we probably also shouldn’t presume worse case scenario. Something in the middle would seem apropos, but predictions are always tricky with all the variables involved.
Angels fans know better than most how these things can go awry with the Halos defying certain models frequently in recent years.
by Omerta on Mar 12, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Oliver led the bullpen?
I just noticed that in the initial post that Oliver led the bullpen. If by led the bullpen you mean never pitched with the lead or rarely pitched in a crucial situation I suppose youre right. While Oliver was steady, he was typically only used with the team trailing and typically in middle innings. Fuentes, Jepsen and Bulger were given all the save and hold situations… this year those roles will be filled by Fuentes, Sheilds, Rodney and Jepsen with Stokes or Bulger handling the Oliver role. Olivers role started getting overblown when he left… its part of the hype about why the Angels have gone backwards.
Um
I may not agree that Oliver was the “leader” of the bullpen during his entire tenure, but he posted a 3.10 ERA for us over three seasons…and your claim that he didn’t pitch with leads? Well, he had more than twice the holds of Bulger and more than Jepsen as well. In fact, he led the team in that stat with 20. Oliver wasn’t just some mop-up guy.
I don’t think we’ll be at a huge disadvantage having lost him, but it is certainly NOT very easy to replaced 209.1 innings of 3.10 ERA baseball in the bullpen, either. He’ll be missed.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Mar 11, 2010 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
Oliver was not a back end of the bullpen guy
Sure Oliver had 20 holds in 2009. Of course in 2009 both Sheilds and Arredondo who had those roles got hurt early, and Spier who had played that role in the past was released. Oliver plugged that gap until Jepsen and Bulger were ready in the 2nd half to play bigger roles and assume the 7th and 8th inning roles. In 2008 Oliver held only 12 and in 2007 he held a mere 8. very low numbers if he were a back end of the bullpen guy since 2-3 pitchers can earn a hold in a game. Olivers role was to keep the game close when the team was trailing or keep it tied if he entered a tie ballgame. Besides having used something called my eyes to see Oliver used in this way for 3 years, I can also see the tell tale stat which is with a high number of decisions which defines the keep em close, keep em tied guy. Oliver was very good in this role… but again on the depth chart of value to the pen, this guy would likely be 4th behind the 3 primary back end of the pen guys. Palmer, Stokes and Bulger are all highly qualified to assume that role.
Yeah Felix and Lee are great, but look who they are going to be matching up against
Every other teams #1 and # 2 starters. You really think the mariners are EVER going to score more than 3 runs against a teams #1 Starter not from baltimore?
by Balls and Strikes on Mar 11, 2010 1:14 PM PST reply actions
Two words: Bingo.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
great analysis
not much fun setting the table when you don’t get to eat.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
this was a complete reply fail to Rex;s post way up the line
F#$King computer
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Please tell me that you are not working in some missile silo for the Air Force.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
I got excited for a second...
…probably a better idea to read threads from the top on down. Ah well…
Does your batphone make outbound calls?
Because we could have some fun pranking The Prez in the middle of the night.
Stoopid White Sox fan.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
usually I laugh out loud at your posts
but I admit, that one blew right by me
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
If you are working in a nuke silo, you have this olive green telephone on your console.
You never want it to ring. Because it is connected directly to NORAD and when it rings it means you are to open your launch book and start verifying launch codes. You are preparing to end the world. That phone needs to be open to override any launch command should the President change his/her mind. NORAD can patch Air Force One through to that phone to shut you down.
So…if the President can talk to YOU on that phone, can you call the President back? If so, our current President is a fan of the White Sox. So let’s use your phone to bug the shit out of him in his sleep. We won’t stop until he orders rendition for Pierzynski. I mean, what the hell can he do about it? You are the one who has the nuke and your vault door is locked from within.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
P.S. - I know this kind of shit because my father-in-law
was a Chief Master Sargeant in the Air Force, and trained our missile crews during the Cold War.
"God watches over drunks and third baseman." - the Immortal Leo Durocher, predicting the coming of Brandon Wood...
a little obtuse for me
but the obtuse nature of it made me laugh…once again, Stirrups reigns supreme
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
I think they are picking the mariners to put the attention off the angels.
that and where are they based? ny so they don’t know how its like on the BEST COAST! 2nd they don’t want to see the angels get their revenge on the yankees 3rd the only WS we ever went to we were the wild card. so I would trade an Al west title for a WS title.
all star game at angels stadium
vote all your angels now!
yes now!
by angels all star 2010 on Mar 12, 2010 5:05 PM PST reply actions
On what planet would the Mariners be better than the Angels?
If it weren’t for their luck last year, they would have been an 80 win team vs 85 wins. Lost Branyon, added Kotch, that makes them a 77 win team (assuming 80 wins is par for them, given they were outscored, that’s optimistic). Lost Beltre, added Figgins, putting them back up at about 79 wins. They lost Morrow and added League, back down at 78 wins. They added Jack Wilson late last year, giving them 79 wins. Added Milton Bradley, if he stays healthy, 81 wins. Added Cliff Lee, putting them back up at 85 wins. The Mariners are an 80-85 win team.
The Angels lost Lackey, replaced with Kazmir, brings them down to 96 wins. Replaced minor leaguers with Pineiro, back up to 97 wins. Lost Vlad, added Matsui, it’s a wash. Lost Figgins, added Wood, down to 95 wins. Lost GMJ, added Stokes, 96 wins. Lost Oliver, added Shields, wash. Added Fernando Rodney, 97 wins.
I see no reason to believe the Angels won’t beat the mariners by at least 10 games again. The Mariners are like a BMW body with an 90’s Ford Taurus engine. They look nice but chances are they won’t make it past 100k miles. The Angels are more of a Honda Civic. Doesn’t matter what you remove, the fact is they’re gonna run for 300,000 miles and no amount bells and whistles can change that.
by Halowood on Mar 12, 2010 7:58 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree
The M’s would have to be insanely lucky to get the performances out of the overall pitching staff that they did last year. Meanwhile, we won 97 despite using 14 starters and losing the heart of the line up through most of midseason. This is going to be a replay of 2008.
"Pie Iesu domine, dona eis requiem".
by ArchAngel_7 on Mar 12, 2010 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed but with a couple exceptions
The first, the Rangers are no joke. They aren’t as good as the Angels but their farm system is stacked. Also, the A’s are much better in 2010 than they were in 2008. But yes, it is similar in that the Angels will still be one of the top 3 teams in baseball even though the media predicts their downfall and the Mariners are merely a shell and won’t pose any real threat.
If it weren’t for the Yankees and Red Sox spending so much money, I think the Wild Card would come from the West this year. Not to mention our division is the only one with the remote possibility of every team finishing above .500.
Pandora
"You gotta have nuts." - Torii Hunter / Part-Time Nemesis of the HH Reply Function
by Commander_Nate on Mar 13, 2010 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
- Shane Victorino lands role on ‘Hawaii Five-0′
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
