FanPost

WILTED RANGERS?

     So the Rangers trade for Cliff Lee, then blow a lead in the top of the 9th to the worst team in baseball. A sign of things to come? According to many commenters here at HH,  the Rangers pitching is about to "wilt", due to excessive Summer heat. Is it true? Here's a look back at the last 5 seasons. First, overall record and 1st half-2nd half win-loss splits (for the record, 1st half is pre-ASG, 2nd half is post-ASG).

 

    SEASON     1ST HALF     2ND HALF  
YEAR WIN LOSS % WIN LOSS % WIN LOSS %
2005 79 83 .488 46 40 .535 33 43 .434
2006 80 82 .494 45 43 .511 35 39 .473
2007 75 87 .463 38 50 .432 37 37 .500
2008 79 83 .488 50 46 .521 29 37 .439
2009 87 75 .537 48 39 .552 39 36 .520

 

     Yes, there is a trend for the Rangers not performing as well in the 2nd half. Only once in the last 5 years (2007) did their 2nd half winning percentage exceed their 1st half percentage. But was pitching the difference? Here are the ERA numbers for the last 5 seasons, showing overall season ERA, and then 1st half 2nd half splits;

    ERA  
YEAR OVERALL 1ST HALF 2ND HALF
2005 4.96 4.74 5.18
2006 4.60 4.65 4.55
2007 4.75 5.23 4.27
2008 5.37 4.97 5.77
2009 4.38 4.34 4.43

 

     There is no consistent trend. In 2005 and 2008, their team ERA was significantly higher in the 2nd half. 2nd half team ERA was slightly higher in 2009. But, team ERA was slightly lower for the 2nd half in 2006, and almost a full run lower in 2007. I just don't see a consistent "wilting" trend in these pitching numbers. In fact, the numbers below make as good a case for their hitters "wilting" in the Texas heat;

 

    BATTING AVG.  
YEAR OVERALL 1ST HALF 2ND HALF
2005 .267 .273 .261
2006 .278 .282 .274
2007 .263 .256 .270
2008 .283 .283 .282
2009 .260 .255 .265

 

     Conclusion? Don't bet on the Rangers pitchers appreciably worse during the summer heat wave. Now that they have added Cliff Lee, I suspect their 2nd half ERA this season will be better than if he had remained in Seattle. I hope the Rev is correct (in this fanpost) that their relief pitching falls apart like it did last evening.

     If there is any trend in the numbers above, it is that they have steadily improved their win-loss percentage every year since 2007.  This will be the toughest divisional fight for the Angels since 2006. I hope our guys are up to the task. Nutter-up!

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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