Dan Haren: Scott Kazmir, Take Two

Every GM makes mistakes. The problem has been over the past few weeks, is that fans have assumed those mistakes meant he was a bad GM. There are two types of analysis that should be done: results and process.

Results

• Off season ’08: Hunter was signed to a contract that was competitive, but he has lived up to it (using objective measures, WAR, whatever you want to look at), and become a very influential clubhouse leader.

• Off season re-sign ’08: Scot Shields to a market deal for three years. He promptly hardly pitches in ’09 and pitches badly in ’10. This has not been successful due to injuries and was a pre-curser for the Rodney signing perhaps.

• Mid season trade ‘08: Teixeira came, helped out quite a lot, showed us what it was like to have an elite 1B’man. This was a trade that has worked out for many reasons: Morales, and the two extra draft picks in ’09 that in effect became Trout and Skaggs.

• Off season LHRP ‘09: Fuentes added to replace K-Rod as closer. As with all RP, his contract was big, but this is a factor of the free agent market more so than perceived value and expected performance. Everyone ’overpays’ for relievers. Fuentes as been adequate over his two years so far.

• Off season re-sign ’09: Santana and Rivera to very team friendly deals (RIvera to 2011, and Santana to 2013). Both have lived up to the deals to date. Injuries have been a slight problem, but nevertheless, both have been pretty valuable. Darren Oliver was also re-upped on a one year deal which he promptly lived up to.

• Late off season bargain ’09: Abreu. He was awesome, it was a completely successful pick-up that greatly aided and inspired our offense in 09.

• Mid season trade ’09: Kazmir came, helped out a bit, but has to date failed to live up to what we intended. He came with risks, and it looks like a bad trade.

• Off season RHRP ’10: Rodney was signed, again to market value, which is way over performance value. Similar to Fuentes he has also been adequate so far.

• Off season SP ’10: Pineiro has been a success, or at least played to his contract. A shrewd pick up, considering the risks of free agent starting pitchers (cough, John lackey, cough). Kudos Reagins.

• Off season ‘10: Matsui brought on to become our DH, replacement for Vlad bat. He has so far been performing below expectations. On a one-year deal it doesn’t hurt us long term, but it hasn’t been as successful as we hoped (particularly in light of Vlad’s performances in Texas).

• Off season re-sign ‘10: Abreu, for his influence and performance in ’09 (where his outperformed his $5 million contract) he was rewarded with a highly competitive 2 year deal. This could become an albatross, if Abreu doesn’t get back on track this year. However his leadership is invaluable.

• Mid season trades ’10: Callaspo and Haren (so far).

Process

So, results wise, a real mixed bad. But, if you live in real life, and not in a computer game, then you know that this will always be the case. You win some, you lose some. If you can point to a GM that doesn’t lose in trades, or the free agent market, then unicorns and elves really do exist.

Reagins process however, has fundamentally been sound.

In 2008: Hunter was a big free agent capture at a position of need (Matthews Jr at CF was not the answer). We paid for it, but he was worth it. Scot Shields was worth re-signing for his performance and loyalty to date. The midseason trade was vital as Kotchman had seemingly not displayed enough to the management (they have been vindicated in their judgement) and we wanted a big bat for the playoffs.

In 2009: K-Rod’s departure left a hole we hoped to fill with Fuentes. Not a stupid move, he was one of the best options available, and it gave us a valuable lefty and closer in the bullpen. Oliver was the needed situational lefty and he also was valuable. The Santana and Rivera deals were great and team friendly. Abreu was a blessing. Morales taking over Kotchman and Teixeira was a huge success. And Kazmir was added to bolster our post season challenge. He helped during the season, but failed in the playoffs. Nevertheless, the intent to make us better (Kazmir, risky but with a history of success, was the only significant SP outside Cliff Lee going to the Phillies moving in a trade i believe) was observable.

In 2010: A mixed bag, and it shows in the standings. Rodney has been adequate, Matsui has been disappointing, and Abreu has not performed as he did in ‘09. Both were good moves at the time though, as we had doubts over Vlad (due to injuries and declining performance). Likewise we did not re-sign Figgins and Lackey, instead going for Pineiro (success!) and Wood (unlike Morales the previous year, failure). To try and block the hole left by Wood, we have added Callaspo at no real cost. Likewise, Kazmir’s shoddy play in 2010 has led to the addition of a future ace, potentially, in Dan Haren. One of the games very best pitchers.

His moves have been understandable for the most part. There have been no glaring craziness, like the Gary Matthews Jr signing, despite people wanting to paint Kazmir as such (he has definitely been disappointing, and it was noticable in his statistical profile in 2009 that he could continue to decline. We played our hand, and it has backfired so far). The decision making has been solid and more often than not, the results have been good.

If he has a weakness, it is paying open market value for relievers instead of developing cheap alternatives through the system (although Jepsen, Bulger, Kohn, K-Rod v2.0 could be changing this).

But overall, he has presided over management continuity, and Reagins has been active in terms of trades, signings etc. He has been party to a two time division champion and we’re still in the race (despite the doom and gloom) for the AL West in 2010, and with his move yesterday, primed to challenge for the AL West in 2011 and beyond.

Strong Leadership people!