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Midseason Review of Halos Heaven's Top 30 Angels Prospects

10) Jean Segura, 3/17/90 - 2B, A-Ball  Stock: Unchanged

.305/.350/.445, 6 HR, 35 SB.  Key Stat: .319/.358/.496 vs. Righties

Segura's stock is on the rise among national prospect analysts - see John Sickels' recent argument for raising Segura's prospect "grade" from C+ to B here, for example - but the second baseman isn't surprising those of us who follow Angels' prospects more closely (the "other Angels message board" even ranked him a couple of spots higher over the offseason). That's likely because we value the word of Tom Kochman, who said last year that Segura "may be the best position player prospect in the [Pioneer] League." Scouting director Eddie Bane also touted his talent, calling him a potential five tool player.  Segura's slow start was disconcerting, especially in the shadow of Mike Trout's brilliance, but his speed, contact ability, power potential, and improving Midwest League numbers are going to keep him in the top 15 on Angels' prospect lists this offseason.

Link to video.

9) Tyler Skaggs, 07/13/91 - LHSP, A-Ball  Stock: Way Up

Star-divide

8 W, 4 L. 82.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 82 K/21 BB.  Key Stat: 3.6 K/BB

Make no mistake: Skaggs is the key to the Haren trade. Saunders lends the D-Back's rotation credibility through the rebuilding process, Corbin's breakthrough this year may put him on a path to the back of their rotation, but Skaggs... Skaggs could be Arizona's frontline guy in three years. In our May conversation, Abe Flores spoke glowingly about Skaggs' present performance and his future projection. He was utterly dominant in a game I saw in April, toying with hitters with a fastball that he ran up and down from the mid 80's to the low 90's, freezing guys with his slow curve, and inducing some ugly swings with a high 70's wipeout slider. Most impressively, he put the ball where he wanted it. While his control has remained decent through June and July, his command inside the strikezone isn't what it was earlier in the year, but we can forgive an eighteen year old for wearing down a little at the back end of his first full pro season. After the favorable press Skaggs received entering the season, I'm a little surprised at the resounding criticism that D-Back's GM Jerry Dipoto has come under for the trade. He may very well come out of this looking more competent than people expect.

Link to video

 

8) Randal Grichuk, 8/13/91 - OF, Rookie Ball, A-Ball  Stock: Same

.252/.301/.504, 6 HR   Key Stat: Only 135 AB's

Grichuk's injury forces a moratorium before we can reserve judgment on his performance, because he was just heating up when the injury sidelined him. He followed a weak .203/.256/.316 April line with a promising .300/.344/.700 performance in the first week and a half of May - and then sprained his thumb. The sample size is small, but he's raking in the AZL, ripping 80% of his balls in play into the outfield for an .800 slugging percentage. He's still just 18, folks. 150 more AB's in the Midwest League to finish off the season will affirm whether or not my enthusiasm is justified, but I think he's shown enough so far to maintain his prospect status.  

Link to video

7) Jordan Walden, 11/16/87 - RHRP, AA  Stock: Down

1 W, 1 L. 41 IP, 3.51 ERA, 37 K/21 BB.  Key Stat: 4.66 BB/9

Walden's stayed healthy and has done a decent job keeping runs off the board, but average middle reliever numbers are not what we were looking for from our former top prospect. Abe Flores reported in May that the fastball retains its trademark velocity and the slider is improving, but there isn't evidence of dominant stuff in the stats. More concerning, he's walking a batter every other inning.  Kevin Jepsen's career stalled for 2+ years following the injury that bumped him to the bullpen, but he put it together in 2008 to emerge as a useful MLB arm.  The Angels will be patient with Walden, hoping for (and expecting) a similar development arc.

6) Fabio Martinez Mesa, 10/29/89 - RHSP, A-Ball  Stock: Holding Steady

7 wins, 2 losses. 3.64 ERA, 99 IP, 134 K/71 BB.    Key Stat: 1.89 K/BB

It is really, really tough to not raise the stock on a starter who's K'ing 12.2 batters per 9 innings, but Martinez Mesa's propensity to lose the strike zone at times is that scary. I can easily envision a scenario where he takes the mound for the Quakes next April, puts the ball where he wants it, and instantly becomes the second best prospect in the Angels' system, looking every bit the future ace his stuff hints he could be. I can also see him remaining more-or-less the same pitcher for a few years until AA hitters refuse to chase anything out of the zone, thrash his mistakes, and force a bullpen conversion that he's not all that well suited for (he has a deliberate delivery that makes it difficult for him to hold runners, though he has improved in that area since the season began). The scouting report on his fastball/slider combo will send a shiver down your spine and he's come a long way with his change-up, but the risk that he never learns to throw strikes keeps his stock right where it started when the season began. 

Reviews of Halos Heavens' Top Five Prospects coming soon!

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Good stuff rghan.

Really hoping that Grichuk lights it up the rest of the way.

The Devil went down to Georgia, and all I got was this gold fiddle. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Jul 29, 2010 3:50 PM PDT reply actions  

A very good Walden/Jepsen comparison

Because of their stuff, I have hope that Walden’s career follows the same path as Jepsen’s. With Walden’s size, strength and aggressiveness, I really hope he can handle the mid or late innings for the Angels by 2012.

As far as Martinez goes, I’d say his stock is up slightly. He has games like his last one where he throws 5 IP and BB’s 6 batters. The again, he has games where he tosses 6 IP collects 11 K’s and only walks 2 batters. But in his last 10 games his ERA is down to 2.86, his stuff is as good now as it was at the beginning of the season, so he’s not tiring and his stamina in games is fantastic. I’d say he having a very good first season of pro ball in the U.S.

We betrayed Vlad, the greatest Angel. Epic fail.

by Halowood on Jul 29, 2010 3:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Cheers rghan

If you had a choice, theoretically, would you have preferred the D’Backs to have taken Martinez Mesa, Richards or Skaggs?

Also i’m hoping for a Walden comeback. He’s been lost a bit in our prospect shuffles, but if the velocity remains on his stuff, I really want to see him put it all together.

by TheQuestforMerlin on Jul 29, 2010 6:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Richards, I think

If Skaggs were still around, I’d call him our third best overall prospect (4th if Conger is back in week or two suffering no ill effects). That said, pitching is really volatile, so that statement could look ridiculous two years from now.

by rghan on Jul 29, 2010 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I were to rank them according to value I think it would go Skaggs, Richards, Martinez

Stuff wise, I feel like Richards may be better than Martinez and Martinez lacks control and is the most likely of the three to end up in the pen. I feel like while Skaggs doesn’t have the best stuff, he’s shown maturity beyond his 18 years and he’s left handed.

We betrayed Vlad, the greatest Angel. Epic fail.

by Halowood on Jul 30, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

The one reason for criticism as Skaggs being the key of the trade is age/level

I absolutely loved Skaggs and really didn’t want to see him go. I would have much preferred Reckling. That said, Skaggs is only putting up these numbers against low-A hitters. While his underlying numbers look great, how many pitchers have looked good at low and high A and then just disappeared in the deeper waters of AA and AAA. The fact that he’s at least 3 years away and with all that uncertainty attached, i think makes much of the criticism of Dipoto valid. It doesn’t help he made himself sound like a total jackass by emphasizing that Saunders and Corbin were great because they happened to win a lot of games.

by HaloFanInDC on Jul 30, 2010 2:05 AM PDT reply actions  

Eventually, I think this trade will either even out or favor the D-Backs....

They shed payroll, and you saw how Joe Saunders threw last night, he’ll be better than fine in the NL. They are also bringing in Corbin who has a future similar to that of Saunders, they got a relief pitcher that won’t hurt their pen and they got a shiny new lefty prospect with considerable upside.

It’s no stretch to believe that Joe Saunders can/will be an all-star in the National League.

We betrayed Vlad, the greatest Angel. Epic fail.

by Halowood on Jul 30, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

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