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Mark Trumbo Mashing: Angels Upper Minors Report

AAA Salt Lake Bees: 57 wins, 54 losses

Mark Trumbo, 1B - (26 AB's) .379/.438/.828 with 2 dbls, 1 trpl, 3 HR's, 9 RBI's, 9 K/3 BB

By the numbers, 24 year old Trumbo is putting together his finest minor league season yet, but how much of that is a PCL mirage? There's a slight increase in both his strikeout and walk rates, likely reflecting Trumbo's efforts to work deeper counts, but those changes are marginal, so the answer lies in batted ball data. Improvements to just his BABIP and ISO would suggest that the thin mountain air is responsible, but a closer look at the distribution of his batted balls suggests that Trumbo is in fact learning to square up the ball more frequently. Trumbo's game is hitting for power, and to do that, he's got to hit the ball into the air. Last year he did that 33.6% of the time on contact, and this year he's lifting the ball 39% of the time on contact (maintaining almost the exact same line drive rate), so he is in fact hitting significantly more flyballs. But there's more: last year he popped out in the infield 20% of the time, and this year he's popping out only 12% of the time. So his percentage of potentially useful flyballs - those that make it to the outfield - has jumped 13% overall.  Not only is he hitting more flies, but fewer of them are landing harmlessly in the first baseman's glove. He played his first ever game in left last night, and while he clearly got crossed up once or twice, he made all of the plays. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in his September call-up. 

Matt Palmer, rhrp - (4 appearances) 2 Sv, 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 3 K/1 BB

The Bees named Palmer their starter last night at the very last second. Just two days after his last relief appearance, he went 4 hitless innings, showing outstanding command down in the zone (8 groundouts to 2 flyouts. Kevin Frandsen especially helped with those GO's), and his curveball looked especially sharp. Given the state of the Halos' pitching staff, we'll see more of him at the big league level before the season is out.  With the dearth of reliable AAA-level pitching depth in the organization, we'll likely see him next year too.

Peter Bourjos, Cf - (26 AB's) .346/.393/.692 with 3 dbls, 2 HR's, 5 K/2 BB

Here's the man of the hour. Due to demand for his skill set, I'm going to assume he'll remain at the MLB level through the remainder of the season, so let's close the book on his 2010 PCL campaign. His July tear brought his season line to .314/.364/.498, or an OPS+ of 116 for the PCL. Interestingly, he fell a little short of the park-adjusted 118 OPS+ he posted in the Texas League last year.  His bat and stolen bases were worth about 12 runs more than the average PCL player, up about 5 runs from last year due to better success stealing and a touch more pop. Chances are his base running will add another few runs in Fangraphs' calculations. Sean Smith reports that Bourjos is currently at +12 runs with the glove in centerfield according to his groundbreaking TotalZone metric, which makes Bourjos' 102 game season with the Bees' worth a little more than 4 wins above replacement. Multiply that out to a full AAA season, and you get a very impressive 5.6 wins, just below where organizational leader Alexia Amarista was last year. Altogether, it was an excellent first stab at AAA.

Star-divide

Amalio Diaz, rhsp - (1 start) 1 W, 5 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 6 K/2 BB

With recent trades having stretched pitching as thin as it's every been at the higher levels of the system, a few guys are converting from relief work to starting. One of them is Amalio Diaz, a fastball/slider guy out of Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela. He's bounced from the bullpen to the rotation throughout his six-year minor league career, but had a very successful season the last time he was a full time starter in 2008 (10 Wins, 8 Losses. 4.32 ERA over 160.1 High A and AA innings).  So far in 2010, he's 3 and 3 with a 3.51 ERA across 75.1 AA and AAA innings. His ERA through 5 starts, all in the PCL, is an ugly 6.50, but it's trending in the right direction.

AA Arkansas: 41 wins, 66 losses

Trevor Reckling, lhsp - (2 starts) 10 IP, 4 hits, 0.90 ERA, 13 K/4 BB

A just-turned 21 year old prospect in AA with a 2.84 ERA through 38 IP (27 hits, 34 K/13 BB) would look very, very good... if we could forget what Reckling did with the Bees. His strikeout and walk rates have looked a lot better since he returned to AA, salvaging his season somewhat following the first half disaster in AAA. One thing that's not trending in the right direction, however, is his groundball rate.  At just 38.5%, it's declined substantially from the 48% mark that he set in 2009. Is that lack of command down in the zone? Or is it a change in his approach? I don't know the answer.

Mike Anton, lhsp - (1 start) 1 W, 7.1 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 7 K/3 BB

Anton had a good July, going 2 and 1 with a 3.45 ERA. The 25 year old finesse lefty is the only member left of the Travs' opening day rotation.

Andrew Taylor, lhsp - (2 starts) 1 W, 11 IP, 12 hits, 2.45 ERA, 8 K/5 BB

Taylor's another reliever whom the Angels have had to convert to starting. What makes his case all the more interesting is that he started just 1 game out of his 64 game North Carolina State University career. He's done a decent job since joining the rotation, going 1 and 1 with a 3.94 ERA over 16 innings.

Tyler Chatwood, rhsp - (1 start) 5 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 3 K/0 BB

Chatwood's fastball/curve combo has kept AA righties to a .221 batting average, even if his 5.4 K per 9 IP isn't overwhelming. It's lefties who have given him trouble: they've hit .330, walked at a rate of 4 per 9 IP, and fanned at a rate of only 2.5 K per 9.  Perfecting his change-up is now his primary order of business.

Jeremy Moore, OF - (15 AB's) .400/.464/.417 with 1 HR, 2 SB, 3 K/4 BB

Moore ranks fifth in the Texas League in batting average, one of the few Travs to make it anywhere near the league leader list. He's improved every year in an Angels' uniform, and is now showing a legitimate feel for hitting with a .303/.362/.431 line. His K rate is creeping down, his walk rate is creeping up, and his stolen base success rate is up slightly from last year. Right now he looks like he could make it as a fourth outfielder, and if he continues to turn his considerable tools into baseball skills, he could start as a platoon guy with plus defense in the corners.

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How fast is Trumbo Rev?

 Does he have better speed and fielding than Rivera or Abreu? Is an outfield of Trumbo, Bourjos, and Hunter seem plausible and does it make sense?

" With Haren bolstering the rotation, the Angels are set up beautifully for 2011"- Another East coast biased reporter

by Halos2011champs on Aug 3, 2010 7:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think rghan had said Trumbo is "Juan Rivera with less range" in the outfield in the Top Prospects report.

I was talking to someone who went to last night’s Bees game though, and they said it looked like Trumbo had improved in the OF.

Still, Trumbo is unlikely to contribute anything defensively. With how bad Abreu and Rivera have been though, even slightly below average is probably an improvement.

by ~MMP~ on Aug 3, 2010 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Eight years ago, Rivera was much fast than Trumbo

He even played centerfield every once in awhile. I have no idea who’d win a foot race now, but my guess is it would be close.

by rghan on Aug 3, 2010 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Eight years ago Rivera was playing the outfield for the MFY

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Aug 4, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right.

Point is, he was much faster than Trumbo at age 24

by rghan on Aug 4, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

I noticed they started Jeremy Moore in CF the other night...

…and pushed Auer to the corner. What do you make of that?

I expected Auer to make the jump to Salt Lake once Bourjos was promoted. Is Moore in CF a prelude to that?

by Turks Teeth on Aug 3, 2010 7:03 PM PDT reply actions  

Moore played 9 games there in 2009

and 46 in cf so far in 2010. I take your point that Auer’s assumed the lion’s share of work there since his promotion, but I don’t think it’s too odd for Moore to get another look every once in awhile. Also, since Bourjos appears entrenched in center, they may want Auer to get more reps in a corner, since he’s probably now on the MLB depth chart (albeit very, very low on the chart).

That said, Moore’s the logical guy to send up next. Evans played in center for the Bees today, and looked decent on milbtv, but his total zone numbers there have never been more than adequate.

by rghan on Aug 3, 2010 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bourjos

Was +12 in TotalZone for his time in Salt Lake. I’m pretty sure Trumbo is not a viable option if we want a good defensive outfield. He’s a 1B/DH, or more likely when Kendry takes the field next spring, trade bait.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 3, 2010 7:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Great info

Thanks Sean. Not as off-the-charts great as I’d hoped, but it still puts him at over 4 WAR for his time in Salt Lake.

by rghan on Aug 3, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Trumbo

I’ve never believed that Trumbo would ever be a big leaguer as a hitter, and remain duly skeptical, but it seems that now’s the time to find out, especially (as with Bourjos) while he’s on something of a hot streak. Getting him reps at the big league level might help the front office answer some questions before the offseason. If he isn’t going to make it, better to find out now.

by jjackflash on Aug 3, 2010 7:28 PM PDT reply actions  

I am never going to jump on the Trumbo bandwagon

until he proves in the MLB. To many flameouts from SLC due to the hitter friendly atmosphere. Any chance the Angels change their AAA site to a more fair game play?

Big Bats, We Don't Need No Stinkin Big Bats!

by angelskid2210 on Aug 4, 2010 10:27 AM PDT reply actions  

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