Trumbo and Conger MLE Report
Mark Trumbo and Hank Conger batted .301 and .300 in Salt Lake respectively. What are their Minor League Equivalencies in Anaheim?
over 1 year ago
Rev Halofan
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I hope Conger gets to see some playing time.
And Trumbo too. But in Sosh alternate universe hitting over .200 is a bad thing for a line up so I doubt it.
2011, Here We Come!!
excited to see how they do
I just hope Scioscia gets them in there quickly, otherwise they’ll be rusty in their debut, and then get to sit another week before playing again.
sound familiar?
Somewhere, right now, Mickey Hatcher is ruining a swing.
by Quinlan's Goofy Swing on Sep 7, 2010 10:49 AM PDT reply actions
And then when they go like 3-4 or 2-4 with a 3-run Jimmy JAck
he’ll just bench em for like 4 games and let MAtshit come in there and be prAmium.
2011, Here We Come!!
by angelskid2210 on Sep 7, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
How bleak Rev, how bleak.
Neither are in the starting lineup, neither would hit for average, a strong possibility of Jeff Mathis returning, and a strong possibility of both Trumbo and Conger wasting away in Salt Lake in 2011 after pummeling AAA pitching in 2010.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I try to report on what might actually happen
and not on how i wish it would happen as predetermined fact.
I'm not sure I trust MLE's though....
In order to compile Kendry’s stats in Anaheim last season, in SLC a player would have to bat .370 and smash 50 HR’s. Even Kendry himself only hit .340 with 15 HR’s. At the same time, Woody can’t even sniff his MLE’s. I see no reason why Conger wouldn’t/couldn’t adjust to major league pitching and give us something better than .240.
I mean I could give my predictions and chances are, they wouldn’t be nearly as scientific but a great deal more accurate. .265/.330 for Conger and .250/.300 23 HR for Trumbo. There’s nothing to back that up, but it’s just as likely as though MLE’s you have.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
If those are your estimates, why are you complaining about MLE?
Trumbo
MLE: .244/.299
HaloW: .250/.300
Conger
MLE: .248 / .318
HaloW: .265 / .330
Your predictions are within a very small margin of error of those of MLE. It would be impossible to be a “great deal more accurate,” since you’ve effectively chosen the same relative targets for both players.
NU-UH!!!!
Yeah your probably right, they are similar, I should have used a better example as to why I don’t put much stock in MLE or WAR. Thanks for capitalizing the “H” and “W” in Halowood. I’m so important I get two capitalized letters.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
It's a realistic take on Trumbo
Two years ago Matt Brown hit 320/373/580 in Salt Lake. Per AB, that’s almost exactly what Trumbo hit (301/368/577). And we all know Matt Brown did exactly turn into a major league slugger. Trumbo’s AAA stats are about the same as what Brandon Wood did, and less than Sean Rodriguez did.
Rodriguez has turned into a nice player in Tampa Bay because he’s an average hitter who can play any position on the field. Trumbo cannot, he’s only valuable if he can hit a ton. He’s a long shot to be a valuable player.
Conger, on the other hand, has more development ahead of him, being only 22, and if he can hit 260/350/400, which he’s not far away from, that is a very valuable hitting line for a catcher.
Sometimes (Kendry Morales) a player greatly exceeds his MLE, and becomes a major league hitter that way. It’s something you can be thankful for when it happens, but not something you can expect. The average player will play like his MLE, a few will exceed (Kendry) and some will fail to meet it (Wood).
For a player to play in the hitter’s haven of SLC and have enough MLE to prove he’s a dominant major league hitter, he’d have to hit like Tim Salmon did: 347/469/672 in 1992. We haven’t had anybody like that since Salmon, though it’s nice to know we’ve caught a Trout.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 7, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Correction
And we all know Matt Brown did NOT exactly turn into a major league slugger
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 7, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Salmon didn't play at SLC
But your point remains.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
by BruinHalo on Sep 7, 2010 1:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If Conger can hit 260/350/400...
Napoli does 254/348/490, but that’s not good enough for Big Mike. In a rational world, Conger would have to be pretty good defensively, and also have even splits to justifiably take AB’s away from Naps.
"jut keep winning babt" - Moondoggy
by Rally Manatee on Sep 7, 2010 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, Conger has allowed ZERO passed balls this season, which speaks volumes about himself and his pitchers....
From a pure tools standpoint, he has a stronger, more accurate arm than Napoli or Mathis, is a very intelligent person and has more athletic ability than most think. I think he could match Mathis defensively (which really isn’t saying much, but according to Scioscia it speaks volumes) and would end up somewhere between Bobby Wilson and Mike Napoli in terms of offensive production across 150 games.
I don’t think we’ll ever have a full time catcher under Scioscia, he prefers a timeshare at the position to keep his players fresh and I don’t disagree with it. Conger has never caught a FULL season in the minors and I don’t expect him to start in the majors. Whatever the case, I still think this ball club is better served with 90 games of Conger behind the plate than 90 games of Mathis, and it’s not even that close.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
Speaks volumes
You said that twice. Are you like really into books on tape right now or something? Are you a trucker?
"jut keep winning babt" - Moondoggy
by Rally Manatee on Sep 7, 2010 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Scioscialism?
Really, Rev? Bad-mouthing the Soth, eh?
That was pretty darn funny! :)
I love this team.
that one word
stuck out the most to me in the whole article. damn funny
protectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpickprotectedpick
by 2pintsofbooze on Sep 7, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
wonder where he lifted it from
google will know
Somewhere, right now, Mickey Hatcher is ruining a swing.
by Quinlan's Goofy Swing on Sep 7, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
some guy in 2007 is the earliest I can find on google
Manager – EDGE – Angels. I am giving Mike Scioscia the edge here and that’s no knock on Terry Francona. But Scioscia manages to make the pieces work even when you wonder that the hell he is doing. Scioscialism, as I like to call it, works.
sizing up the sox angels series that year.
I was just kidding about “lifting”, you aren’t Charck Whickter
Somewhere, right now, Mickey Hatcher is ruining a swing.
by Quinlan's Goofy Swing on Sep 7, 2010 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
You should get a chalkboard and explain it to us like we're all 5
Maybe make yourself cry a little bit too so we know you’re telling the truth.
"You gotta have nuts." / "Coming Around 3rd, especially if I'm ticked off, that's going to happen." - Torii Hunter
by Commander_Nate on Sep 7, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Is that a Glenn Beck ref?
"jut keep winning babt" - Moondoggy
by Rally Manatee on Sep 7, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep
Tryin’ to help Rev add to his play on words.
/Hopes for a shout out in any future artistic work based on Scioscialism
"You gotta have nuts." / "Coming Around 3rd, especially if I'm ticked off, that's going to happen." - Torii Hunter
by Commander_Nate on Sep 7, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
If a team adopts Scioscialism…
…will it’s adherents be taxed to death in support of mass mediocrity? Will failure = premium? Will there be massive, over-sized marble monuments to popular team members…that disappear upon their demise?
Scioscialism…where the future is known. It’s past history that keeps changing.
If past is prologue:
Each will initially struggle, hitting about 220 in the majors, but hopefully they will make some “adjustments” and find their groove ASAP.
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
They'll be fine
As long as they try and find a good pitch to drive.
by HalosBiggestFan on Sep 7, 2010 12:05 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
They just need to shorten their swings and make productive outs...
…while staying within themselves and trying not to do too much.
by The_Question on Sep 7, 2010 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
The reality is
"jut keep winning babt" - Moondoggy
by Rally Manatee on Sep 7, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm torn here
I love seeing the kids play, and I always have hope that they will succeed and become a force for the team. But the Angels’ recent record in developing position players has been so spotty, that I don’t want to get my hopes up. I’m actually afraid that Trout will end up being a one-year mirage like Wood, although I’m aware that he has a much broader skill set. I just don’t want to set myself up for massive disappointment like with Wood, Mathis, Kotchman, McPherson, and, to a lesser extent, Aybar and Future Batting Champion™ Kendrick.
I'm afraid of Trumbo turning into that
but I see Conger being a good MLb offensive player. The reason, he actually has patience at the plate. Trumbo, not so much.
2011, Here We Come!!
by angelskid2210 on Sep 7, 2010 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Predictions are extremely valuable and denote future success with a high level of accuracy. : )
On the note, I’m stoked about seeing them getting some playing action.
Go Halos!
W6G -- Unless there's a good trade on the table.
On Trumbo...
…if you plug his Post All-Star Break numbers into the MLE calculator here, it tells a much brighter story. He supposedly has had things click for him in the 2nd half of the season, which you can tell from his improved K/BB ratio. Now, I’m not sure I think this is real, but it is probably somewhere between the below and what the article had. Projected to 550AB:
.282/.352/.502, 26 doubles, 31 HR, 58 BB and 149 Ks.
Yeah that’s a rough K rate despite his improved discipline in the 2nd half… but wouldn’t YOU love to have Mark Reynolds on your team? (although admittedly, Scioscia probably wouldn’t haha)
Time to see what Wood's got!
I dont believe those MLE #'s.
Good players continue to improve and get better, that’s what seperates them.
Seriously, what does a guy have to hit 390/450/600??? to get any respect with those MLE’s.
Because if you hit .190/.220/.200 in a little league season
You most likely are not going to be a .300/.400/.500 player in the majors.
The jump from AAA to MLB is not nearly as long, obviously, but the point remains the same.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
0.2% owned in Fantasy teams on ESPN
sad for a starter.
sadder for those who picked him on there team
"You dont need long hair to rip off your sleeves and be a badass" - J. Allen
their*
W6G -- Unless there's a good trade on the table.
by RexTookMyStash on Sep 7, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Grammar is relevant to baseball tangentially .
W6G -- Unless there's a good trade on the table.
by RexTookMyStash on Sep 7, 2010 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
if it were only once withyou ... no, it would not
but it is never just once with you and therefore it DOES matter.
So I turned Mathis' MLB stats and see what they would like in
MiLB…..and got this.
.236/.270/.356. He wouldn’t even be touching .250 in AAA right now.
And my hitting coach was Jason Kendalls dad, Fred. Awesome guy!
2011, Here We Come!!
by angelskid2210 on Sep 7, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
How about .750 in a C/D Co-Ed beer league?
2011, Here We Come!!
by angelskid2210 on Sep 7, 2010 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Then you should expect a call from the Rangers any day now.
"Wastin away again in Minor-Leaguer-Ville..."
MLEs don't estimate career peak performance.
They estimate what a player transitioning from one level to the next would do given the same # of plate appearances in the same relative time frame.
It doesn’t mean that Conger will be hitting .248 five years from now.
Pretty much
Players in the International league don’t have to post as ridiculous numbers to have good MLE’s, since it’s not as much of a hitters league.
But when guys like Adam Riggs hit 331/373/633, like for the 2004 Bees, then you realize a good hitter has to REALLY stand out in that league to get noticed. Howie Kendrick has been a major league .300 hitter, he hit .369 in SLC.
Kendry Morales is the exception, either he vastly improved when given the full chance to play, or else he was playing way under his ability in AAA. My guess is the latter. I think if you made Kendry in his prime (he’ll be 27 next year) play a full year in SLC, he’d hit .400 with a .750 slugging percentage. But I think we can make better use of the Kowbell.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
eddie bane recently compared trumbo to dave kingman...
when you look at trumbo’s projections from the mle story and kingman’s lifetimem #‘s, it’s pretty interesting.
trumbo .244 ave/ .299 obp/ .448 slg/ .747 ops
kingman .236 ave/ .302 obp/.478 slg/ .780 ops
i’d take a young dave kingman in our line-up.
they will both be All-Stars in two years
you can bet on that
"You dont need long hair to rip off your sleeves and be a badass" - J. Allen
If the FO is seriously considering trading Napoli, they better let Conger play
These unkown prospect gambles haven’t gone well recently.
"You gotta have nuts." / "Coming Around 3rd, especially if I'm ticked off, that's going to happen." - Torii Hunter
As good as Sosh is
someone needs to sit him down and explain to him how valuable OBP is. And SLG.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Finally! Now play them Sosh
Put Conger at catcher, release Mathis (like they did Stokes) play Trumbo at DH/1B with Napoli and hopefully end this bad season on a good note.
Let's look at where Angel 22-year-olds have finished in the PCL's OPS rankings!
Hank Conger came in 71st this year (with a low minimum of 143 ABs). Here is a list of recent 22-year-old Angel performances:
2010: 71 Hank Conger
2007: 81 Brandon Wood
2006: 1 Howie Kendrick
2005: 77 Jeff Mathis
2005: 94 Casey Kotchman
1997: 39 Darin Erstad (in Vancouver; also the PCL was a 10-team league from ’78-97)
1994: 51 Garret Anderson
1992: 24 Jim Edmonds (Edmonton)
1992: 95 Damion Easley
1991: 27 Chad Curtis
1990: 12 Lee Stevens
1985: 87 Devon White
1982: 60 Mike Brown (Spokane)
1981: 10 Daryl Sconiers (Salt Lake)
1981: 37 Mike Bishop
1980: 5 Dickie Thon
1977: 7 Willie Aikens (league was 8 teams from ’69-77)
1977: 8 Kenny Landreaux
It gets boring south of ‘77, so I’ll stop there. It’s an interesting list. Certainly, the recent Wood/Mathis/Kotchman performances give one pause.
One distinct advantage Conger and Trumbo can be expected to have
over most of the starters is that they will give a crap about winning.
I can’t recall when the team has played so far under their abilities for so long.
Two more callups I'd love to see
Are Andrew Romine and Alexi Amarista. I know they won’t be because of the 40 man roster limits. But Howie and Aybar have played so poorly lately that I would love to see any kind of alternative.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.




























