FanPost

Wells over Beltre?!?

Lets start with Arte's justification for not signing Crawford at $20mil per year: "When we picked up Haren, we picked up $12 million," Moreno told DiGiovanna. "If I'm going to spend $20 million [on Crawford] and go to $144 million without taking care of the bullpen or third base, as a fan, when do you get to the place where you say, ‘What are my expectations of the owner, and what am I willing to pay for a ticket?'"

Well...there goes the $20mil to an older and inferior LF, with no fix at 3b (Beltre was available at $16mil per year)...So just how do Wells and Beltre compare, including their contract situations:

Beltre vs. Wells

1) Beltre two more years at only $10mm more total salary (assuming last year vests i.e. full health), so Beltre is $5.5mm per year CHEAPER!

2) Beltre is one year younger, more likely to age well as corner infielder than OF.

3) Angels desperately need a 3b, much more than any position on team.

4) Beltre is a better offensive player, better defensive player, better overall player. 

Here are their last four years of stats:

BELTRE

Season

G

PA

AB

H

2B

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

2007

149

639

595

164

41

26

87

99

14

0.276

0.319

0.482

2008

143

612

556

148

29

25

74

77

8

0.266

0.327

0.457

2009

111

477

449

119

27

8

54

44

13

0.265

0.304

0.379

2010

154

641

589

189

49

28

84

102

2

0.321

0.365

0.553

Total 

557

2369

2189

620

146

87

299

322

37

0.283

0.331

0.474

WELLS

Season

G

PA

AB

H

2B

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

2007

149

642

584

143

36

16

85

80

10

0.245

0.304

0.402

2008

108

466

427

128

22

20

63

78

4

0.300

0.343

0.496

2009

158

684

630

164

37

15

84

66

17

0.260

0.311

0.400

2010

157

646

590

161

44

31

79

88

6

0.273

0.331

0.515

Total

572

2438

2231

596

139

82

311

312

37

0.267

0.321

0.450

So over the last four years, its a moderate difference, with Wells having more games and ABs, thus higher counting stats in a few areas, but still lower hits, 2B, HR, same steals, 16 points lower average, 10 points lower OBP, 24 points lower SLG!!! Actually cannot think of a single way to describe Wells as not at least a slightly inferior offensive player...

Last 4 Years (2007-2010)

AB

2B

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

Beltre

2189

146

87

299

322

37

0.283

0.331

0.474

Wells

2231

139

82

311

312

37

0.267

0.321

0.450

Wells - Beltre

42

-7

-5

12

-10

0

-0.016

-0.010

-0.024

Over the last three years, same story really. More ABs for Wells, so slightly higher counting stats, but 11 points lower average, 8 points lower OBP, 5 points lower SLG. Closer actually, but still can't really think of any possible way to say Beltre wasn't better hitter...

Last 3 Years (2008-2010)

AB

2B

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

Beltre

1594

105

61

212

223

23

0.286

0.335

0.471

Wells

1647

103

66

226

232

27

0.275

0.327

0.466

Wells - Beltre

53

-2

5

14

9

4

-0.011

-0.008

-0.005

But, then naysayers spout, "well but Beltre is really a one-year, contract year player with his great 2010" (which was by the way his first year in his career in a hitters park). So to actually use FACTS, instead of nonsense incorrect jargon, lets compare their three years prior to last year, ie 2007-2009:

3 Years Prior to Last (2007-2009)

AB

2B

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

Beltre

1600

97

59

215

220

35

0.269

0.318

0.444

Wells

1641

95

51

232

224

31

0.265

0.317

0.426

Wells - Beltre

41

-2

-8

17

4

-4

-0.004

-0.001

-0.018

AGAIN, same thing, Wells more ABs, so slightly higher counting stats, but fewer steals, 4 points lower average, 1 points lower OBP, 18 points lower SLG!!! Closer actually, but still can't really think of any possible way to say Beltre wasn't better hitter...

At this point, I think its fair to say, that Beltre is AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFENSIVE PLAYER. Actually, there is not really a stat anywhere that can tell you anything different. Not last year, not last three years, not last four years, not three years before last year, nothing.

In these last four years by the way, Beltre has won two gold gloves and is generally referred to as one of the best defensive 3B in baseball (ignoring sabermetic defensive stats to avoid more prolonged debate). Wells hasn't won a gold glove since 2006, and isnt really that great in CF anymore (stats would suggest "poor" is better characterization, but I'll be generous as he'll be moving to LF). So Beltre is better defensively, don't think anyone really disagrees...

Some may try to show their respective career numbers to make the point they are the same more or less. However, Beltre's overall career numbers are 1) massively distorted by the home / road splits and the fact that Wells has spent his ENTIRE career in a hitter park, while Beltre has spent EVERY YEAR BUT ONE in extreme pitchers parks and 2) Beltre is actually the younger player, and the difference in ABs etc is due to the fact that he came up as one of the youngest players in the game and had 3.5 full seasons before Wells' real debut as 23 year old. These young seasons weigh down his nearly identical career averages. He's been much better last four years, last three years, last year as I've shown with every conceivable stat.

So here is where it gets really interesting. We haven't yet put any thought into the difference in ballparks on Wells and Beltre. Blindly showing their entire career numbers is wrong and we know Toronto vs. LA / Seattle is lazy and incorrect. So lets pull their career Home / Away splits:

BELTRE

AB

2B

HR

R

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

Home

3293

163

126

437

439

0.258

0.315

0.425

Away

3581

234

152

475

569

0.290

0.341

0.496

Total 

6874

397

278

912

1008

0.275

0.328

0.462

WELLS

AB

2B

HR

R

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

Home

2648

175

124

400

436

0.286

0.339

0.505

Away

2822

164

99

389

377

0.274

0.321

0.446

Total

5470

339

223

789

813

0.280

0.329

0.475

Diff in Overall (Wells - Beltre)

0.005

0.001

0.013

Diff in Away (Wells - Beltre)

-0.016

-0.020

-0.050

So overall, Wells has way fewer ABs, so less counting stats (less 2B, HR, R, RBI, etc), but not really fair given difference in ABs. His Avg, OBP, SLG are all slightly better. But again the difference in ABs and rate stats is due to Beltre coming up at 20 and having 3.5 mediocre seasons before Wells entered league.

Ignoring that, look at the difference in splits!!! Wells at home (in hitters park in Toronto, with turf infield boosting average) is what Beltre essentially is on road (in neutral parks).

Wells career road line is .274/.321/.446!! Beltre is .290/.341/.496, or 16 points better average, 20 points better OBP, and 50 points better SLG!!!

So, Beltre is better player, and perhaps much, much better player when accounting for extreme differences in career ballparks. Not like the Angels needed a 3B though...Shocking offseason indeed...

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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