Lets start with Arte's justification for not signing Crawford at $20mil per year: "When we picked up Haren, we picked up $12 million," Moreno told DiGiovanna. "If I'm going to spend $20 million [on Crawford] and go to $144 million without taking care of the bullpen or third base, as a fan, when do you get to the place where you say, ‘What are my expectations of the owner, and what am I willing to pay for a ticket?'"
Well...there goes the $20mil to an older and inferior LF, with no fix at 3b (Beltre was available at $16mil per year)...So just how do Wells and Beltre compare, including their contract situations:
Beltre vs. Wells
1) Beltre two more years at only $10mm more total salary (assuming last year vests i.e. full health), so Beltre is $5.5mm per year CHEAPER!
2) Beltre is one year younger, more likely to age well as corner infielder than OF.
3) Angels desperately need a 3b, much more than any position on team.
4) Beltre is a better offensive player, better defensive player, better overall player.
Here are their last four years of stats:
BELTRE |
||||||||||||
Season |
G |
PA |
AB |
H |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
2007 |
149 |
639 |
595 |
164 |
41 |
26 |
87 |
99 |
14 |
0.276 |
0.319 |
0.482 |
2008 |
143 |
612 |
556 |
148 |
29 |
25 |
74 |
77 |
8 |
0.266 |
0.327 |
0.457 |
2009 |
111 |
477 |
449 |
119 |
27 |
8 |
54 |
44 |
13 |
0.265 |
0.304 |
0.379 |
2010 |
154 |
641 |
589 |
189 |
49 |
28 |
84 |
102 |
2 |
0.321 |
0.365 |
0.553 |
Total |
557 |
2369 |
2189 |
620 |
146 |
87 |
299 |
322 |
37 |
0.283 |
0.331 |
0.474 |
WELLS |
||||||||||||
Season |
G |
PA |
AB |
H |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
2007 |
149 |
642 |
584 |
143 |
36 |
16 |
85 |
80 |
10 |
0.245 |
0.304 |
0.402 |
2008 |
108 |
466 |
427 |
128 |
22 |
20 |
63 |
78 |
4 |
0.300 |
0.343 |
0.496 |
2009 |
158 |
684 |
630 |
164 |
37 |
15 |
84 |
66 |
17 |
0.260 |
0.311 |
0.400 |
2010 |
157 |
646 |
590 |
161 |
44 |
31 |
79 |
88 |
6 |
0.273 |
0.331 |
0.515 |
Total |
572 |
2438 |
2231 |
596 |
139 |
82 |
311 |
312 |
37 |
0.267 |
0.321 |
0.450 |
So over the last four years, its a moderate difference, with Wells having more games and ABs, thus higher counting stats in a few areas, but still lower hits, 2B, HR, same steals, 16 points lower average, 10 points lower OBP, 24 points lower SLG!!! Actually cannot think of a single way to describe Wells as not at least a slightly inferior offensive player...
Last 4 Years (2007-2010) |
AB |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
||
Beltre |
2189 |
146 |
87 |
299 |
322 |
37 |
0.283 |
0.331 |
0.474 |
||
Wells |
2231 |
139 |
82 |
311 |
312 |
37 |
0.267 |
0.321 |
0.450 |
||
Wells - Beltre |
42 |
-7 |
-5 |
12 |
-10 |
0 |
-0.016 |
-0.010 |
-0.024 |
Over the last three years, same story really. More ABs for Wells, so slightly higher counting stats, but 11 points lower average, 8 points lower OBP, 5 points lower SLG. Closer actually, but still can't really think of any possible way to say Beltre wasn't better hitter...
Last 3 Years (2008-2010) |
AB |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
||
Beltre |
1594 |
105 |
61 |
212 |
223 |
23 |
0.286 |
0.335 |
0.471 |
||
Wells |
1647 |
103 |
66 |
226 |
232 |
27 |
0.275 |
0.327 |
0.466 |
||
Wells - Beltre |
53 |
-2 |
5 |
14 |
9 |
4 |
-0.011 |
-0.008 |
-0.005 |
But, then naysayers spout, "well but Beltre is really a one-year, contract year player with his great 2010" (which was by the way his first year in his career in a hitters park). So to actually use FACTS, instead of nonsense incorrect jargon, lets compare their three years prior to last year, ie 2007-2009:
3 Years Prior to Last (2007-2009) |
AB |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|||
Beltre |
1600 |
97 |
59 |
215 |
220 |
35 |
0.269 |
0.318 |
0.444 |
|||
Wells |
1641 |
95 |
51 |
232 |
224 |
31 |
0.265 |
0.317 |
0.426 |
|||
Wells - Beltre |
41 |
-2 |
-8 |
17 |
4 |
-4 |
-0.004 |
-0.001 |
-0.018 |
AGAIN, same thing, Wells more ABs, so slightly higher counting stats, but fewer steals, 4 points lower average, 1 points lower OBP, 18 points lower SLG!!! Closer actually, but still can't really think of any possible way to say Beltre wasn't better hitter...
At this point, I think its fair to say, that Beltre is AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFENSIVE PLAYER. Actually, there is not really a stat anywhere that can tell you anything different. Not last year, not last three years, not last four years, not three years before last year, nothing.
In these last four years by the way, Beltre has won two gold gloves and is generally referred to as one of the best defensive 3B in baseball (ignoring sabermetic defensive stats to avoid more prolonged debate). Wells hasn't won a gold glove since 2006, and isnt really that great in CF anymore (stats would suggest "poor" is better characterization, but I'll be generous as he'll be moving to LF). So Beltre is better defensively, don't think anyone really disagrees...
Some may try to show their respective career numbers to make the point they are the same more or less. However, Beltre's overall career numbers are 1) massively distorted by the home / road splits and the fact that Wells has spent his ENTIRE career in a hitter park, while Beltre has spent EVERY YEAR BUT ONE in extreme pitchers parks and 2) Beltre is actually the younger player, and the difference in ABs etc is due to the fact that he came up as one of the youngest players in the game and had 3.5 full seasons before Wells' real debut as 23 year old. These young seasons weigh down his nearly identical career averages. He's been much better last four years, last three years, last year as I've shown with every conceivable stat.
So here is where it gets really interesting. We haven't yet put any thought into the difference in ballparks on Wells and Beltre. Blindly showing their entire career numbers is wrong and we know Toronto vs. LA / Seattle is lazy and incorrect. So lets pull their career Home / Away splits:
BELTRE |
|||||||||
AB |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
||
Home |
3293 |
163 |
126 |
437 |
439 |
0.258 |
0.315 |
0.425 |
|
Away |
3581 |
234 |
152 |
475 |
569 |
0.290 |
0.341 |
0.496 |
|
Total |
6874 |
397 |
278 |
912 |
1008 |
0.275 |
0.328 |
0.462 |
|
WELLS |
|||||||||
AB |
2B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
||
Home |
2648 |
175 |
124 |
400 |
436 |
0.286 |
0.339 |
0.505 |
|
Away |
2822 |
164 |
99 |
389 |
377 |
0.274 |
0.321 |
0.446 |
|
Total |
5470 |
339 |
223 |
789 |
813 |
0.280 |
0.329 |
0.475 |
|
Diff in Overall (Wells - Beltre) |
0.005 |
0.001 |
0.013 |
||||||
Diff in Away (Wells - Beltre) |
-0.016 |
-0.020 |
-0.050 |
So overall, Wells has way fewer ABs, so less counting stats (less 2B, HR, R, RBI, etc), but not really fair given difference in ABs. His Avg, OBP, SLG are all slightly better. But again the difference in ABs and rate stats is due to Beltre coming up at 20 and having 3.5 mediocre seasons before Wells entered league.
Ignoring that, look at the difference in splits!!! Wells at home (in hitters park in Toronto, with turf infield boosting average) is what Beltre essentially is on road (in neutral parks).
Wells career road line is .274/.321/.446!! Beltre is .290/.341/.496, or 16 points better average, 20 points better OBP, and 50 points better SLG!!!
So, Beltre is better player, and perhaps much, much better player when accounting for extreme differences in career ballparks. Not like the Angels needed a 3B though...Shocking offseason indeed...