FanPost

What am I missing?

As previously mentioned, I'm not a big stats guy.  I've never played fantasy anything.  Until a recent work environment change, I didn't even check HH that often.  Basically, I need some help understanding where my eyeballs and the stats meet. 

Last year, it seemed to me that the outfield of Areu/Hunter/Rivera missed about a ball or two per game (99.9% not Hunter).  Either what should have been an out fell in for a hit, or a should-be single rolled to the wall or corner.  This gave the opponents extra outs, baserunners, and often runs.

For illustration purposes (and because I prefer whole numbers), let's say that over the course of the 2011 season, there are 100 balls the outfield of Wells/Bourjos/Hunter convert into outs that would have fallen for hits last year.  That's 100 fewer baserunners and 120 fewer total bases.  Also, that's 100 fewer opportunities for opponents to extend an inning.  (If my questions don't work this way, imagine a hypothetical 2010 where the same balls were caught by our new outfield.)

Is it possible that Wells true value to the Angels could/will exceed his WAR, which was calculated with Toronto?  Will an increase in defensive plays by the outfield increase the WAR of the OF, pitching staff, or both?  Does the WAR stat take into acount the pitching staff a player plays behind (Weaver and Haren both induce a lot of fly balls)?

Bottom line, I'm trying to figure out why a lot of the stats people are throwing on the board suggest doom when my eyeballs see a dynamic pitching staff with a great defensive outfield behind them.  Winning 2-1 is the same as winning 7-5 in my book.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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