Projecting the AL West: WAR Analysis

I really hope it works out that way

I don’t really see a guy like Colby Lewis doing what he did last year though. But hopefully Webb doesn’t pitch like he did before the injuries. It kind of looks like the rangers of old; great offense but mediocre pitching.

or possibly less offense and defense as we had last year. Weaver, Santana, Piniero, and Haren/Saunders all pitched their collective asses off last year, Weaver should have been undefeated but no one could score a run, when they got on base they got picked off trying to steal or Mathis came up to hit into a double play. I would be shocked if more than one of the Angels improved over last year in offense. We have the exact same team as last year that came in 3rd, look for us this year to compete for 2nd and forget the playoffs if this is the team we field. Unless they super glue Mathis to the bench he is gonna play, so that throws out WAR projections being important because he is a rally/momentum killer.

is either getting something for johnny rivers or dumping mathis from the lineup. if you dump mathis and give the job to naps with wilson covering (and conger getting playing time in SLC) and let abreu DH, I think we’re all right. Especially if we add a bat via trade.

Should it get worse if they start floating him around the infield?

although I would put Frank Francisco in the Rangers bullpen over Mark Lowe, and I think David Murphy will play over Borbon (with Hamilton shifting to CF).

There are too many factor’s to know how the season will play out.

What helped the Angels 2005-2009 was relatively weak divisional competition. Oakland has generally had strong pitching and a weak offense. Texas has been the opposite. Seattle has been…a mess. Texas and Oakland improved last year. (Though Texas lost Lee, they had him for only 1/3 of the season. They established themselves as divisional leader without Lee.)

I don’t see the division getting any easier for our Angels in 2011.

“We’ll win with what we’ve got” lemmings will be going wild.

But that will also cut into Napoli’s playing time, probably.

…that after collectively belittling such pre-season projections in years past when we were on top and they ‘regressed our excellence to the mean’, that we should be clinging to them now as a sign of hope.

Projections – the last refuge of fans who secretly expect their team to do badly.

p.s. Excellent work by the way BigGame48, please forgive my cynicism

I think they’re going to be better than some people think/project. They traded for TWO outfielders that the Angels should have looked at if they weren’t going to “spend what it takes” and also added Matsui; who, despite his slumps, was the 2nd best hitter on our team last year.

I however have little to no confidence that Webb will be a viable pitcher for the Rangers.

Scioscia rightfully said we needed depth and so now we have Aybar, Kendrick, Izturis and Callaspo as our infield depth and, when we sign Podsednik, Rivera and Abreu as outfield depth.

The problem? If Hunter or Morales go down or have bad years, this team is awful again. We have useful depth but no depth where it matters 1-9

We tried (I guess thats what you’d call it) on FA and failed.
Maybe that Aramis Ramirez isn’t such a bad idea now.

Aramis Ramirez projected WAR 3.1

that improves us significantly-2.1 WAR higher than what we have currently while probably getting rid of some dead weight in other areas

Moves our 25 man WAR to 51.7
Also considering that a Rivera or Callaspo plus a minor leaguer would be involved in the trade, we wouldn’t be losing too much WAR from the bench or field. something that is easily replaceable by internal parts- maybe 2.2 WAR lost but replaced by better parts.

If our pitching, bullpen and rotation, are as good as advertised and projected, then this trade that improves our offense is simply a must do.

Now consider a trade for Aramis and a FA signing of Posednik. our lead-off situation is better, LF defense is better (not great but better), better power #’s with the addition of ramirez and great pitching.

Sounds like a race in the AL West to me with those additions.
We lost out but can still make some noise. That is if the former Ninja can pull the trigger

- what level of production are you expecting from Bourjos in 2011. What’s his slash line going to be at the end of the season (avg / OBP %/ SLG %)

- who bats behind Kendry…Rivera? Napoli? Howie? Are you saying that Rivera, Napoli or Howie = Vlad?

That in itself is embarassing. But as they say, Good pitching beats out good hitting. Go Halos!

Now I guess I gotta go and pay it forward. Thanks, bro.

But it looks like maybe we’re headed to the old days…

Look on the bright side though. Derek Jeter will probably be an Angel his last season before retirement. Click, click, BANG!

Trade Mike Trout for Michael Young….

FLATLINE______________________________

Callaspo’s 1.6 to Beltre’s 5.1 War is what really stands out to me. Swap those and you get a hefty 3.5 added War and you plug in Michael Young’s 2.4 at third instead of Beltre’s 5.1 for Texas and they lose out even when you add a DH.

Texas got better while making us worse by keeping Beltre out of our reach. REAGINS!!!!!!

if the Halos can stay in it with their pitching there will most certainly be offensive pieces that can be added at the deadline that could help the team for the final push. The fact that SF just won the WS last year with that exact formula should ease the panic for Angels fans a little bit. Good pitching will always beat good hitting, so we still have a shot at this.

The AL West is a three team dogfight right now. My favorite Halo lineup would be: 1 Izturis 2B 2. Abreu LF/DH 3. Hunter RF 4. Morales 1B 5. Napoli C 6. Rivera LF/DH 7. Callaspo 3B 8. Bourjous CF 9. Aybar SS

Good God Y’all

What is it good for?

Absolutely nuthin

I’ll save you the time, it doesn’t.

cause it makes for good conversation. That’s about it , but I personally still enjoy it. I like the write up except a few things. I know its ahrd to get things right on other teams, cause well you don’t see them often as your own team.

Feldman is a rotation starter for us ? I guess the Texas front office missed that one. As the guy right now is coming off knee surgery and an after thought at this point to make the team.

Julio Bourbon? That low? I know again you don’t follow the Rangers but I think he is better than some that are rated higher than he is on here. Plus Murphy played 90 to 95 % of the time down the stretch and in the post season. So I wouldn’t really put him in front of Murphy.

Craig Gentry? He has played in a total of 31 games for the Rangersover 2 season. Mostly for late running purposes. I wouldn’t believe or think he can make the team out of Spring training based on the number of people vying for spots on the bench.

M Young a proven 300 hitter, veteran is lower than the likes of guys who were rookielast year on this WAR. I think that’s a little funny but that happens with peope predicting.

Anyways, I think the Angels havea very good rotation and the A’s also for that matter. I think Texas has the best lineup by far. I think Texas will be better than most people think pitching wise. It has shown since Ryan took over years back. Either way all three teams have a chance to win it and so many things happen over a season that isn’t projected ( injuries,underacheiving, overacheiving, etc. ) . I do believe the West is better than most baseball people think. It will be a competitive year and I look forward to it.

Good Luck…..Go Rangers!!!

…but the Rangers won the division with their rotation before Cliff Lee and after Dan Haren. Lee did very little in the regular season and Haren could not mitigate the difference then, why should he now?

…the Rangers offense and lack of pitching kept them out of the playoffs and World Series last year? Looks to me like the Rangers have just as good pitching (regular season wise) as they did last year. Lee got them to the Series, but it was Colby Lewis who actually won games. Plus they have youngsters coming out of Nolan Ryan’s back pockets. What is Arte doing? Kicking the tires on Jeff Suppan? Watching as all hope of helping our anemic offense goes other places?