Potential Angels Free Agent Market Value

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the free agents that have been discussed here at Halos Heaven and break them down individually to assess their market value. Read more about the methodology and see the results after the jump...

Before I get into the results let me briefly explain how I went about valuing each player..

• 2012 fWAR is merely a 3-year average from 2009 through 2011. If the player will be 31 years of age or older on opening day, I have deducted 0.5 fWAR from this average.
• Cost/WAR is set at $5MM for 2012 and increases 5% each year*.
• This model assumes that a player's fWAR will drop 0.5 each season beginning with their age 31 season*.
• Length of contract was based on my best judgment.
• I apologize for my sub-par table-making skills.

* - The 5% Cost/WAR increase and 0.5 WAR deduction were pulled from this Dave Cameron article.

It's not a perfect science, but should give us a rough idea of each player's fair market value. Let's start with the biggest names on the market this off-season.

Prince Fielder - 7 years/$188 Million

Prince has averaged 5.1 fWAR over the past three seasons. The intriguing part about Fielder is his age. The lefty will be 27-years old on opening day which means he's still four seasons away from showing a decline in production. Some have expressed concern that Fielder's skills won't age well but in order to stick with the system I've kept his fWAR at a steady 5.1 though the 2015 season. If Prince were to ink a seven-year deal, he projects to return around $188MM in value over the lifetime of the contract.

Albert Pujols - 8 years/$230 Million

After a decade in the majors Albert finally posted a sub-.400 wOBA. Pretty incredible that a 5-Win season is considered a down year for this guy. Despite being five years Prince's elder, Albert is still the marquee free agent this year. If he signs an eight-year deal he figures to produce nearly $29MM of average annual value.

Aramis Ramirez - 3 years/$27 Million

Let me start off by saying I'm 100% in the Callaspo camp. I am perfectly content with a high on-base, slick fielding third baseman. But, I've heard this name thrown around so I included it in the post. I gave Aramis a break and bumped his fWAR substantially from his 2009 season in which he played 82 games so this projection is quite generous.

Now let's get to the starting pitching where the Halos will almost certainly be a player...

C.J. Wilson - 5 years/$104 Million

A lot of HH'ers will shy away from the $100 price tag on Wilson, no doubt. That's understandable as we only have two season's worth of data to analyze Wilson as a starter. However, if he pitches as well as he has the past two seasons, he projects as a $100MM arm.

Edwin Jackson - 4 years/$77 Million

Jackson may not come off as a big time free agent pitcher but the reality is he has produced consistently over the past three seasons (3.6, 3.8, 3.8 fWAR). He figures to have a few more strong seasons in him before he starts to decline. I strongly doubt whoever signs Jackson will give him a deal worth an average of $19MM annually, so whoever does land him may be getting him for a nice bargain.

Mark Buehrle - 3 years/$39 Million

Mark Buehrle has has been remarkably consistent over the past dozen or so years. Since breaking into the majors, he's posted only one sub-3.4 fWAR campaign. He's managed to average over 4 fWAR per season in that span. He's one of the best options on the market and appears to be on quite a few radar screens including New York and Boston. I wouldn't be very surprised to see him land a deal like this.

Roy Oswalt - 2 years/$27 Million

There are some injury concerns around Oswalt who made only 23 starts last year due to a bum back. Nevertheless, he projects as a nice middle of the rotation option even at 35-years old.

Hiroki Kuroda - 2 years/$22 Million

This may be a moot point as I read recently that it's either the Dodgers or back to Japan for Kuroda. He would be a solid #4 option for the Angels if he would consider making the commute.

Paul Maholm - 3 years/$30 Million

I haven't heard his name much this off-season yet, but Maholm is another guy that has been tossed out as a potential #4 in Anaheim. I'm not sure I can see him getting $10MM per season, which means he could be of nice value if the Halos can pick him up for 2-3 years at $7-8MM per season.

If you have any suggestions on these guys (projected WAR, length of contract) or would like to see this information for another free agent drop a comment and I'll check it out.

Have a great weekend and a special thank you to all of you veterans.