C.J. Wilson an Angel, I'd Rather Not
by jshapgee on Nov 15, 2011 9:18 PM PST
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PrintWhen seeing that the Angels are highly pursuing C.J. Wilson I thought, Hooray! But closely analyzing it, it is a poor deal for many reasons. C.J. Wilson probably will not sign for anything less than a 16M per year contract. Yes the Angels need a strong lefty but it is not worth it. We have roughly 20M to work with and we are using 3/4 of it on a person who will influence 1 out of every 5 games.
The Angels need some bullpen help for Scott Downs and Jordan Walden and Takahashi isn't gonna cut it. With the Wilson deal we could only sign Jon Rauch and possibly Mike Gonzalez leaving all other options left to trading. If it comes down to this have Garret Richards and Jerome Williams fight for the 5 spot come spring training and focus on either developing or trading Chatwood.
Potential Tyler Chatwood deals would be for that power third basemen in the last year of contracts. Possibly Youk or David Wright. A Chatwood and Taylor Lindsey deal for Wright could spark interest and happen.
These series of deals answer some but not all needs the Angels want to focus on and C.J. Wilson is the key to all of it. Now if the Angels didn't sign Wilson we could be creative. First sign Paul Maholm to a 3/17M contract. A sleeper that is a solid lefty that has a good ground ball rate and not many walks. Sign Ryan Doumit to a 2/9M contract. He hits .333 with runners in scoring position and has good situational pop. Bring Heath Bell in for a 2/12M contract. The Angels need some good junkball throwers to complement J Wald. Still sign Mike Gonzalez. He throws hard and is very good at stranding runners and getting key strikeouts. Finally signing Josh Willingham to a 4/25M contract that is a little backloaded. He is an amazing situational hitter, plays small ball and played shortstop and third base in college. He was drafted as one and has played third before. This leaves our team polished and ready to take on the Rangers.
Making the C.J. Wilson deal would be a small mistake this offseason and this team can become a lot better by not signing him and doing these things.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Heath Bell at 2/12m...
If only we could sign him for that cheap; he may require 12 million for just one year, not two.
I have lots of secret weapons! -- Voodoo
and a 4 year deal for Josh Willingham? Too steep.
Still, good food for thought, jshapgee.
My response to your letter of February 19, 1976, is - kiss my ass.
Sincerely,
Bill Baxley, Attorney General
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Nov 15, 2011 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
6 million for a reliever?
tony would love it!
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Nov 16, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure where to start....
I don’t really buy the whole “this guy will influence 1 of 5 games” bit. It’s technically true, but one could certainly argue the starting pitcher has five times more influence on a game than a hitter.
I’m not big on Chatwood at all. He has put up poor BB rates at every level and hasn’t shown he can really strike anyone out beyod high A-ball. I don’t feel very comfortable with him as the #4, nor do I think a Chatwood/Lindsey deal would even land rate.
Despite the fact I’m not big on Chatwood, I would prefer to keep him and Lindsey over David Wright and his $15MM contract. He’s a defensive liability that’s not a sure bet to be any more productive than Callaspo.
I agree with you on Maholm. He’s a solid #4 candidate if we don’t land Wilson, Beuhrle, Oswalt, or Jackson… but I’m not sure $17MM over 3 year gets it done.
I’m okay with Doumit, but I’d prefer a 1-year deal so we don’t block Conger in the event he impresses.
Don’ think Heath Bell at 2/$12MM is realistic at all. Papelbon just signed for twice that amount.
Willingham at 3B? I can’t tell you the last time Willingham played 3B, but I know it wasn’t in the major leagues. Plus, didn’t we already trade for David Wright (as part of your plan)?
Last four years
Wright’s overall WAR is 1.2 higher per season than Callaspo’s and a 129 OPS+ vs. 103 OPS+. He’s struggled ever since the new ball park, and has every bit the opportunity to explode if he moves away from it. His glove is an issue, but he’s hardly in Mark Reynolds territory.
I wouldn’t count on Wright to replicate his run from ‘05-’08, but I’d put money on him being “more productive” than Callaspo and his career year.
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by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 15, 2011 10:16 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not saying Callaspo will out-produce Wright in 2012...
I’m just saying for $15MM and two prospects I would need to be absolutely certain Wright is going to significantly outproduce Callaspo, and I’m not.
I was responding to this
He’s a defensive liability that’s not a sure bet to be any more productive than Callaspo.
Aside from that, though…if we lose Chatwood, it’s not much of a hit. His upside is pretty limited at this point, and he’s expendable if we sign an arm.
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by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 15, 2011 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
I for one would pass on Wright.
Money aside, which alone is a big problem, the dudes got injury issues. Callaspo isn’t sexy, doesn’t have alot of pop, but has done a decent job at 3rd with his glove, and actually produced at the plate last season. Was he the best 3rd baseman in the AL last year? No. But he did a good enough job, and like you pointed out, i’m not sure Wright would out produce Callaspo at this point. Save the draft picks, save the money. Pass on Wright.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
Wright is under contract for '12
he wouldn’t cost us picks…if anything, he’d net us some.
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by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 15, 2011 11:04 PM PST up reply actions
Depends on if we actually took on the whole value
and at $5 million per win, I think Wright could make good on his contract, and if not, he can give us a type-A compensation package on the way out the door.
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by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 15, 2011 11:03 PM PST up reply actions
Wilson was worth 5.0 WAR this last year.
He’d be replacing someone (Chatwood) worth -0.6. That’d be a 5.6 WAR flip at one position. Let’s be conservative and call it a 4.5 WAR flip.
It’s also 5.0 WAR away from the Rangers. Who takes the spot there? Someone worth 1.5 wins? Let’s be generous and call it 2.5.
That’s a 7 WAR swing from us taking him over the Rangers. We lost the division by “10” games. In reality, we lost it by 5 days, as in how many days were left on the day we were eliminated. Because what happened after that is more or less irrelevant. No team plays the same when there’s nothing to play for (and, as has been rumored, perhaps it was even tanked to spite the Tigers).
A 7 WAR swing arguably gives us the division based on last year’s results.
This is a sig.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 15, 2011 10:12 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
A lot of Assumptions
I doubt the Rangers stand pat with a AAAA guy to replace WIlson in the rotation. I doubt Chatwood would repeat his 2010 WAR performance. Wilson leaving frees up $7 million to spend elsewhere.
Realistically I think it would only net us 2-3 games at most against the Rangers.
by YouthofToday on Nov 15, 2011 11:09 PM PST up reply actions
What BigGame48 said
I compensated for some of that.
I said the Rangers would replace him with a 2.5 win pitcher (which is actually someone pretty good…Ervin was worth 3.1 last year).
I also said that the C.J. Wilson swap was worth 5.6 in 2011, but may be worth as little as 4.5 in 2012 if they both perform differently.
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by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 16, 2011 5:08 AM PST up reply actions
That makes a lot of sense...
But part of me is thinking that Dipo is playing the role of Brian Cashman from last year.
Didn’t Cashman drive up the price on Carl Crawford…
I can see our new GM, driving the price up on Wilson, who I still see landing on the East Coast, taking Texas out of the bidding and watching Wilson leave the rivals.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at First2Third.net
Next year is not last year
The Angels will not necessarily win 86 games again just by maintaining the same roster. There’s too much variability, and variability was relatively kind to them in 2011. The team should have learned by now that what a player did last year is not the best indicator of what they’ll do next year. With an aging core and a top-heavy pitching staff, it would be very unreasonable to expect CJ Wilson alone to tip the scales.
by Suboptimal on Nov 16, 2011 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You don't sound like you're expecting that Vernon Wells rebound people are hoping will magically occur.
We call people like you “Negative Nancy” in my house.
Vernon Wells 2011 Stats (.218/.248/.412) and 2010 road stats (.224/.299/.400). The front office shouldn't have been surprised.
Au contraire
Even heavy rocks and boulders rebound when they hit they ground. They just don’t rebound very far. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him hit even as well as .250 / .300 / .420 next year, good enough for perhaps as many as 1.5 WAR.
I'll take the under.
Vernon Wells 2011 Stats (.218/.248/.412) and 2010 road stats (.224/.299/.400). The front office shouldn't have been surprised.
Probably way under at that.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see VW rebound somewhat. I believe the term is “polishing a turd.”
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
If early reports are any indication
Mathis tanking the catcher’s job is a finished experiment. Conger is a virtual lock to be more valuable with consistent playing time.
Wells would also be hard pressed to be as miserable as last year. Even if he made a conscious effort. Trout’s increase in playing time probably offers more value as at-bats are decreased for resting veterans.
A fair amount went right last year. A lot also went wrong. I think it more than balances.
And that “top-heavy” rotation, with Wilson, is suddenly deep with excellent talent 1-4.
A lot went right for Texas this last year, too. Napoli played out of his mind to career highs. Health was relatively kind. Their young pitching barely stumbled once.
But most importantly, I’m also not suggesting that Wilson be the only move the Angels make.
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by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 16, 2011 7:07 PM PST up reply actions
Wilson would be replacing pineiro, not chatwood.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 16, 2011 4:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Depends
In direct spot in the rotation, sure…but if we sign any other SP, or promote anyone else, it’s sort of a moot point who was meant as the replacement for who.
But either way, more power to my point…Pineiro’s WAR last year was worse than Chatwood’s.
This is a sig.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 16, 2011 7:08 PM PST up reply actions
love the bullpen ideas
The idea of bringing in more depth to our bullpen seems like the best thing that could happen to our team. We can easily be able to maintain leads with our SPs then to hand it off to a Downs/Gonzalez/Rouch would be incredible. I’d love to sign Maholm if we can’t lock up a wilson/beuhrle/jackson type player. He is a controlled lefty with great upside. I too am not a fan of Chatwood and wouldn’t mind trading him away for a player with great OPS (preferably a 3B). Ryan Doumit seems like a risk, he is mediocre at best behind the plate and is nothing we can’t trade for in a different player.
by hunting-for-trout on Nov 15, 2011 10:23 PM PST reply actions
I think Wilson would be great
It leaves TexASS without an ace, give us 3 aces plus Ervin and hopefully Richards who I love. I also think we should try to make a trade to get one or both of Headley and/or Hundley from Bud Black. Out of the relievers I like Mike Gonzalez, he’s been hurt lately, but when he’s healthy he’s pretty electric.
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Wilson
I expect Wilson to cost at least 5 years and at least $16 million per. That’s not an insignificant opportunity cost of financial resources.
Without the context of trades to help the offense without sacrificing what little we have in our farm system I just don’t see how relying on Kendrys to return this is a wise move.
I gotta be straight with your SHAPGEE
You want:
WRIGHT
RAUCH or GONZALEZ
MAHOLM
HEATH BELL (2@12 made me howl with laughter, how fucking out of touch is YOUR wallet?)
WILLINGHAM.
I would rather have Tony Reagins Back then anyone who would agree with your ludicrous player acquisition proposals.
You write well and you make paragraph breaks in the right places but wow do you ever make player acquisition suggestions that border on the random picking of players based on the first cars in each pack of TOPPS that you open.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 15, 2011 11:26 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
A Chatwood and Taylor Lindsey deal for Wright could spark interest and happen.
Missed this one. If I need a good laugh I would ask for an explanation as to why the Mets would trade 3 months of Beltran (without the luxury of getting draft picks for him at the end of 2011) for one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and then trade Wright for this package.
by YouthofToday on Nov 16, 2011 12:00 AM PST up reply actions
F O R M U L A :
Every team is dumb except ours so let’s get all the good players form them for our bad players.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 16, 2011 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Now that Reagins is gone
We’re no longer the dumbest team. Yipee!!!!!
From Jeff Mathis' TOPPS card: "Jeff is a defensive catcher, but he can rake it when it counts." Jeff has a lifetime .199 MLB batting average
Maybe I was a Little Out of Line...
But I was speaking my mind, plus you didn’t read the article clearly. You could’ve gotten your point across without completely insulting myself.
As always stay strong, stay geetroso
by jshapgee on Nov 16, 2011 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Don't knock that strategy
It worked for Toronto last offseason.
You boys stick around--there'll be turkey and ice cream later!
You are a funny guy. You are the number 1 hater and doucheshnozzle of the world. Yet the only consistent poster. Why people look at your things are beyond me. And I said that half of those things are wiht C.J. Wilson the other half without. So its actually quite realistic. You would have realized this if not having your head a mile up your fat ass. Thank You very much, Rev Halofan I will be straight with you
As always stay strong, stay geetroso
by jshapgee on Nov 16, 2011 7:50 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Based on your quote below
You are the number 1 hater and doucheshnozzle of the world
I have a feeling your first post might be your last.
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
A whopping 4 days into joining Halos Heaven and you're already picking a fight with the guy who runs it.
I can’t say I recommend that strategy. But hey, if the grass is green, play ball.
by moralesforpresident on Nov 16, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
LOL
Don’t hate the guy who RUNS THE BLOG because he pointed out what everyone else was already saying.
This probably aint’ the blog for you because Rev isn’t the only one who thinks you suck and have ideas that are AT BEST on par with sports radio and at worst something my 8 year old nephew could spit up if he played fantasy baseball for 2 weeks
RIP Nick Adenhart
by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 16, 2011 8:53 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Ya, because Tyler Chatwood is totally the best Boston and NY can do for Youk and Wright
Delete
RIP Nick Adenhart
What you want is fine, but the terms and dollars are completely unrealistic.
First, Maholm will get 2 years somewhere, but you don’t give a guy like him a 3 year deal at this particular point in his career. I’d be shocked if he was able to find a 3 year deal out there.
Second, if Heath Bell was going to settle for a 2 year/$12 deal, he would have resigned with San Diego right now.
Third, I would forsake Jerry Dipoto if he signed Willingham for four years, regardless of the amount.
by moralesforpresident on Nov 16, 2011 10:35 AM PST reply actions
WIlson will end up with the Yankees
Buerhle has the better record of performance and the better resume. He is the pitcher that Dipoto is secretly targeting.
From Jeff Mathis' TOPPS card: "Jeff is a defensive catcher, but he can rake it when it counts." Jeff has a lifetime .199 MLB batting average
I'd much rather have Buerhle as well.
Napoli's 27th, 28th, 29th and 30th homers of the year (four more than Jeff Mathis' career total) rained down on Angel Stadium like knives from the ceiling.
Perhaps
Yet I think everybody is going to be floored with the contract Buerhle end up signing. It won’t be a value play.
by YouthofToday on Nov 16, 2011 11:33 PM PST up reply actions
He also doesn't have CJ's douche factor.
Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.
by RexTookMyStash on Nov 16, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
I have a feeling the Yankees actually end up with Haren or Santana
Call it a hunch
RIP Nick Adenhart
by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 16, 2011 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
Like this
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
Are we getting Montero and Robertson, plus cash in return?
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 16, 2011 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
so in the mid of shapgee
$16M for wilson is no bueno, but bell for at least half of that is a-ok
sweet
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Nov 16, 2011 3:46 PM PST reply actions
Actually.....
Heath is very effective and will win more games for us. We blew so many games late in the innings. It’s worth it
As always stay strong, stay geetroso
by jshapgee on Nov 16, 2011 4:06 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
So a guy that will pitch1/3 of the innings is worth 1/2 the money?
You could argue that, but I am not buying it.
Willits? Check. Reagins? Check. Waiting on Mathis
BTW, I change my previous vote,
I am completely FOR more random non-sense posts. They, and the responses to them, give me something to laugh at all day.
So thank you jshapgee, you and your new york mets profile pic made me laugh.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 16, 2011 4:21 PM PST reply actions
No big contracts in the bullpen!!!
Follow the Friedman model with Tampa Bay – sign a bunch of low cost arms and let them battle it out during spring training. The Rays closer last year (Farnsworth) cost them $3.25m.
With Walden and Downs already on the roster, the team has enough to close games. The focus in the bullpen should be depth since Jepsen, Hawk, and Chopper are too unreliable. The big $$ should be spent on shoring up the offense, getting a quality LH starting pitcher, and fixing the abyss behind the plate.
From Jeff Mathis' TOPPS card: "Jeff is a defensive catcher, but he can rake it when it counts." Jeff has a lifetime .199 MLB batting average
HURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Team leads league in ERA, pitching.
Team cannot hit worth a fucking shit.
Team goes into winter with two of the best hitters in recent memory on the market.
Team goes after lefty who is on the wrong side of 30, throws 90 MPH, was in Japan recently, and is a douche bag.
Team still cant hit
Team still has to win games 2-1
Team fails to make playoffs again.
Fuck this.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Mad panda?
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 16, 2011 4:40 PM PST up reply actions
Ah
Time for a trade-in, eh?
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 16, 2011 4:44 PM PST up reply actions
Too much bamboo wine & stupid free agent signing make Phi an angry panda
All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine.
by Quad Fin Rider on Nov 21, 2011 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
You have been warned....
From Jeff Mathis' TOPPS card: "Jeff is a defensive catcher, but he can rake it when it counts." Jeff has a lifetime .199 MLB batting average
Bottom-line is all that matters
Whether or not you improve the team by getting a player who will help the team prevent more runs from scoring or will help the team score, you are improving the team. C.J. Wilson is overrated and will probably be overpaid, but he is still vastly better than Chatwood or any other prospect that we would be forced to put in our rotation without him. Thus, his acquisition would help our team a lot. I know we have other needs, particularly offensive ones, but if we score the same amount of runs as last year and prevent less, we will get better. At the right price, I am for signing Wilson.
Well said and I agree
Except I’m reading Wilson wants 6/$120 and that’s just ridiculous. I would be down for something around 5/75 but that doesn’t seem realistic considering hes the top dog.
6/120 now?!
F yourself, Nicky Newport!
by Halowitz on Nov 16, 2011 8:13 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
the phillies would take that contract if he was 35
“We didn’t win the world series, we must not have burned enough money”
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Nov 17, 2011 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
If all things were equal, I could agree
However we live in a world where boobs get saggy, women are difficult, cars break down, the sky is blue, and diminishing returns exist.
When you are near last in scoring runs in your league and first in preventing them, its best to improve the thing you suck at. You cannot win games 0 to -1, therefore, too much pitching at the expense of offense is, in fact, a bad thing at a certain point.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
Someone does not understand diminishing returns, I see.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
The returns diminish until we hit zero, then they skyrocket.
Vernon Wells 2011 Stats (.218/.248/.412) and 2010 road stats (.224/.299/.400). The front office shouldn't have been surprised.
I understand
I just don’t agree in this case.
As far as I’m concerned after Santana we don’t have any reliable arms. I think Williams was a hoax, Chatwood is a bum, Richards isn’t ready, and Bell is a question mark.
Here is the point, we were pretty good at keeping the other team from scoring runs last year and we can expect similar performances for 2012.
Williams is good enough to be a piniero replacement, so we just need a #5 guy to eat innings.
Our offense however, was horrible last year and we dont have much hope for improvement unless we do something. And… two of the best hitters in the game are free agents this season. So put me in the camp that thinks spending 15-20 million a season on an over-rated pitcher isnt a good idea for this team.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 17, 2011 4:39 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not convinced Williams is a #4 but that's up for debate
I wouldn’t want to spend $20MM on Wilson either. Realistically, I think he’ll get more than I would want to pay for him.
Anyhow, DiPoto has $15MM-$20MM to spend this winter which is $5-$10MM short of what Prince or Albert are going to get. JDP has made it clear they aren’t priority number one, which means even if Arte was going to up the budget to make room for one of those two, it would have to be by at least $15-20MM (enough to land on of them as well as well as add address the problem DiPoto has already said are higher priority).
In summary, Prince and Pujols are pipe dreams and nothing more. At this point we should just hope Nolan Ryan stands by his comments that Texas won’t pursue on of those guys.
I disagree.
There is a point where lowering your teams era will not influence your win probability significantly for the dollars spent.
The same could be done for the runs scored by a team and we are much closer to the point where we will get a big boost from adding some runs.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 19, 2011 9:00 AM PST up reply actions
You still aren't looking at this the right way
If C.J. Wilson hypothetically saves 30 more runs than Tyler Chatwood does during the year, that is a big return. This is the entire concept of WAR, VORP etc. The 30 runs that the team saves, you factor into the pythag. and you have more wins. Simple as that.
Sure, within the course of a game, if you give up 2 or less runs, you are usually always going to win, but when you have a guy that consistently allows less than 3 runs a start vs. a guy who consistently allows 4 or more and is out of the game earlier, that adds up to make a big difference.
but its about dollars spent and what you get for it
We could buy 5 weavers for our rotation, but if we dont score any runs we are going to keep repeating that horrible game a few years back where weaver threw a nohitter and still lost.
We already get a pretty good shot at winning with 3/5 of our pitchers. We need to maximize that by adding offense, not losing more games 1-0
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 19, 2011 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
If we had 5 Weavers in our rotation and last year's offense
We would win 110 games
fire up the cloning lab!
of course, each one will need a mathis
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Nov 19, 2011 8:43 PM PST up reply actions
Only if Premium Was Catching...
… according to Comrade Lyle.
by YouthofToday on Nov 20, 2011 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
There's an old saying
It goes back generations. It says that “you know the thread has gone on too long when an argument can only be settled by an appeal to differential calculus.”
This is the simplest Pythagorean win-loss formula (x is runs scored, y is runs allowed):
This is how many marginal wins you gain by scoring an additional run:
This is how many marginal wins you gain by preventing an additional run:
This is the relative benefit to scoring an additional run versus preventing an additional run:
But that’s just the ratio of runs allowed to runs scored. That makes sense. If you’re at the break-even point, you’d do just as well to slide in one direction as you would in the other.
This is where the Angels sat on the curve last year:
So here’s the conclusion: because their run differential was so close to zero, in practice, they would be served just about equally well by preventing additional runs as they would be by scoring additional runs. If they absolutely had to bend one way or the other, they should be willing to spend an extra 5% on preventing runs than they should on scoring them.
However, this is not an endorsement of CJ Wilson. The Angels should take the runs wherever they can find them, but there is no magic bullet. 5% is not a big gain. They’re just too far away from the “steep” part of the curve to justify taking on long-term risk in hope of a short-term boost toward playoff glory.
by Suboptimal on Nov 21, 2011 12:22 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
That looks pretty but it means shit. Sure their run differential was close to balanced but that doesnt really mean anything.
The league average for runs scored was 723, the angels scored 110 less runs than the average AL team.
The average runs allowed was 717, the angels were 50 runs better than average.
So although the angels were basically balanced in their ability to prevent or score runs, it should be easier (and thus cheaper) to improve the offense to at least league average.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 21, 2011 9:27 PM PST up reply actions
How is the league average at all relevant?
The point of the game is to score more runs than your opponent. It doesn’t matter how you do it, and it doesn’t matter what the rest of the league is doing, so long as you come out on top in the end.
by Suboptimal on Nov 21, 2011 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
We are looking at the best ways to invest the 20 million we have to spend this offseason
I used the assumption that Wins above replacement correlate to an exponential salary growth model. So for example a replacement player should be paid league minimum. A guy who gives you 1 WAR should be paid some function of that cost, a guy who gives you 2 WAR is worth a salary more than 2 times that of a 1 WAR player because it is harder to find guys who can give you 2 WAR than it is to find guys who can give you 1 WAR. On and on the WAR/ salary scale. It’s somewhat intuitive, but relates to my point.
Our offense produced below average last season (and the one before). So gaining ground towards a league average offense should cost us less per additional win and be a more effective use of our budget than trying to improve the rotation.
I think DiPoto should look to find guys to fortify our weakest areas- OF, C, DH and 1B while acquiring a couple slightly better than average pitchers- guys like Kuroda or Harang, etc… Whether he chooses to make some free agent signings, trades or give guys like Conger, Trout and Morales a chance, We need to focus on improving the offense first because it offers us the most efficient way to invest our budget.
by Balls and Strikes on Nov 22, 2011 12:07 AM PST up reply actions
According to that logic, CJ Wilson is your man
WAR is a linear metric. It contributes the same at any position. So look at the relative gains at each position.
The Angels already project for 2.5 WAR at 1B between Morales and Trumbo, so even if Fielder is a 5.0 WAR guy, he only adds 2.5 WAR on top of what the team already has. There’s no catcher on the market who could add that many wins over a Conger/Wilson solution, and the best available upgrade in the outfield is already on the 40-man roster. That leaves pitching, and CJ Wilson could easily outperform Williams or Chatwood—both of whom are replacement players—by four or five wins next season.
My contention is that four or five more wins next season are likely to be irrelevant. The Angels are too far behind the Rangers to close the gap with one big signing. Wilson is already over 30—he’s going to get older, worse, and more prone to injury. Bringing him in on a 5-6 year deal is an incredible amount of risk to take on just to expend the peak of his talents on 2012.
by Suboptimal on Nov 22, 2011 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I gotta agree with you and BG48
I’d take Fielder in a heartbeat, but realistically, signing him will require more dollars and years than any pitcher left on the market. Pujols will take even more. If I wake up in the next few weeks and see that Arte has cracked open his gold reserves under the rock pile and signed Fielder, I’ll be stoked, but I don’t see it happening.
I don’t trust Williams to be anything more than longman/spot-starter. Richards and Chatwood are not ready. We simply cannot go forward with 40% of our starts being huge question marks. The other 60% are in good/great hands, but even they will have bad days and possible injuries. All it takes is a few 5+ game losing streaks due to a lack of good starts and we’ll be right out of the race again.
The most realistic thing we can hope for is that we find a catcher with a decent bat to platoon with Conger, Morales makes a respectable comeback, Trumbo shows enough utility to remain in the lineup, and we sign at least one solid starter. This scenario requires the least amount of money and roster shuffling.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Nov 21, 2011 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
But how many more runs will we score when we give Mathis the Boot?
Be a Angel Fan till I die... The only good team to come out of Texas is my Dallas Cowboys Baby
best move
sign Buerhle
sign Matt Capps (cheaper due to bad season)
DFA Mathis
sign Doumit or simply let Conger/Wilson do the catching
I like most of it.
Don’t like Capps.
His bad season is backed by bad peripherals. He’s been a bum in two of the last three seasons. His velocity was down this season and his K-rate was 4.66. No thanks.
Someone I have been pimpin’ for almost a year now is Kevin Slowey. He’s a non-tender candidate that would certainly (and rightfully) come a lot cheaper than most of the names we’ve been discussing. He wasn’t very impressive this year but I’m willing to write that off to having a fucked up role in Minnesota. Gardy had him all over the place so he couldn’t really settle in. The skills he showed from 08-10 say he’d be just fine at the back end of the rotation.
Ugh
I’d rather:
sign Broxton
sign Francisco if reasonable
non-tender Mathis
trade Trumbo for a couple young live arms to stick in the bullpen, if Morales is indeed healthy
let Conger play
extend Howie
save the rest of the money to make a huge splash in future years and to reinvest into player development
by Howie the Halo on Nov 21, 2011 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
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