FanPost

2011 Angels, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Angels 2011 game by game actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Angels games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5226 which translates to an expected win total of 84.66 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Angels game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4969 or 80.51 wins.  The Angels actually went 86-76 on the season.  The Angels outplayed their Vegas and simulator win expectancies.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Angels were the largest favorite to win.

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercLAA Win PercSim LAA Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 09-05-11 Anthony Vasquez Dan Haren SEA LAA LAA 72.973 72.973 67.02 LAA 3 7 10
2 09-03-11 Brian Duensing Joel Pineiro MIN LAA LAA 71.831 71.831 53.77 LAA 6 10 16
3 08-05-11 Jason Vargas Jered Weaver SEA LAA LAA 70.588 70.588 65.207 LAA 0 1 1
4 09-02-11 Carl Pavano Jered Weaver MIN LAA LAA 69.231 69.231 63.206 MIN 13 5 18
5 08-19-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Dan Haren BAL LAA LAA 69.231 69.231 59.975 LAA 3 8 11
6 08-24-2011 Zach Stewart Jered Weaver CHA LAA LAA 67.427 67.427 61.392 LAA 0 8 8
7 09-07-11 Charles Furbush Jerome Williams SEA LAA LAA 66.102 66.102 57.882 LAA 1 3 4
8 05-24-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Dan Haren OAK LAA LAA 65.398 65.398 60.795 OAK 6 1 7
9 05-23-2011 Josh Outman Jered Weaver OAK LAA LAA 64.851 64.851 59.918 LAA 1 4 5
10 09-16-2011 Dan Haren Tommy Hunter LAA BAL LAA 63.702 63.702 54.674 BAL 3 8 11
11 09-23-2011 Gio Gonzalez Jered Weaver OAK LAA LAA 63.57 63.57 55.13 OAK 3 1 4
12 05-07-11 Alex White Jered Weaver CLE LAA LAA 63.168 63.168 68.056 CLE 4 3 7
13 07-07-11 Doug Fister Jered Weaver SEA LAA LAA 63.168 63.168 58.55 LAA 1 5 6
14 09-18-2011 Jered Weaver Alfredo Simon LAA BAL LAA 62.406 62.406 51.21 LAA 11 2 13
15 04-10-11 Jo-Jo Reyes Jered Weaver TOR LAA LAA 62.335 62.335 65.143 LAA 1 3 4
16 04-12-11 Fausto Carmona Dan Haren CLE LAA LAA 61.686 61.686 59.467 LAA 0 2 2
17 04-27-2011 Tyson Ross Dan Haren OAK LAA LAA 61.686 61.686 59.644 OAK 2 1 3
18 06-07-11 Alex Cobb Dan Haren TB LAA LAA 61.538 61.538 60.245 TB 4 1 5
19 05-28-2011 Jered Weaver Anthony Swarzak LAA MIN LAA 61.538 61.538 61.804 MIN 0 1 1
20 07-08-11 Blake Beavan Ervin Santana SEA LAA LAA 61.464 61.464 58.529 LAA 3 4 7
21 08-02-11 Brian Duensing Ervin Santana MIN LAA LAA 61.315 61.315 54.462 LAA 1 5 6
22 09-04-11 Kevin Slowey Joel Pineiro MIN LAA LAA 60.861 60.861 52.629 LAA 1 4 5
23 06-03-11 Ivan Nova Jered Weaver NYA LAA LAA 60.707 60.707 55.535 LAA 2 3 5
24 09-01-11 Ervin Santana Charles Furbush LAA SEA LAA 60.552 60.552 54.286 LAA 4 3 7
25 05-08-11 Fausto Carmona Dan Haren CLE LAA LAA 60 60 62.236 LAA 5 6 11
26 04-13-2011 Carlos Carrasco Ervin Santana CLE LAA LAA 59.432 59.432 56.851 LAA 3 4 7
27 08-06-11 Blake Beavan Tyler Chatwood SEA LAA LAA 59.1 59.1 59.062 SEA 5 1 6
28 06-10-11 Jeff Francis Ervin Santana KC LAA LAA 59.1 59.1 58.023 KC 4 2 6
29 06-12-11 Vin Mazzaro Tyler Chatwood KC LAA LAA 59.016 59.016 62.118 KC 9 0 9
30 04-25-2011 Gio Gonzalez Jered Weaver OAK LAA LAA 58.932 58.932 57.45 LAA 0 5 5
31 08-23-2011 Mark Buehrle Ervin Santana CHA LAA LAA 58.848 58.848 55.273 LAA 4 5 9
32 09-14-2011 Jered Weaver Rich Harden LAA OAK LAA 58.763 58.763 52.318 LAA 4 1 5
33 06-08-11 James Shields Jered Weaver TB LAA LAA 58.592 58.592 59.744 TB 4 3 7
34 05-09-11 Edwin Jackson Ervin Santana CHA LAA LAA 58.592 58.592 56.294 CHA 8 0 8
35 08-21-2011 Brian Matusz Jerome Williams BAL LAA LAA 58.592 58.592 49.639 LAA 1 7 8
36 09-17-2011 Ervin Santana Zach Britton LAA BAL LAA 58.333 58.333 43.66 BAL 2 6 8
37 04-09-11 Ricky Romero Jered Weaver TOR LAA LAA 58.246 58.246 58.599 LAA 5 6 11
38 09-21-2011 Dan Haren Dustin McGowan LAA TOR LAA 58.159 58.159 56.08 LAA 7 2 9
39 09-06-11 Felx Hernandez Ervin Santana SEA LAA LAA 58.071 58.071 54.93 SEA 2 1 3
40 07-03-11 Chad Billingsley Ervin Santana LAN LAA LAA 57.983 57.983 53.379 LAA 1 3 4
41 06-11-11 Felipe Paulino Joel Pineiro KC LAA LAA 57.983 57.983 58.505 LAA 5 7 12
42 03-31-2011 Jered Weaver Luke Hochevar LAA KC LAA 57.627 57.627 57.6 LAA 4 2 6
43 05-29-2011 Dan Haren Carl Pavano LAA MIN LAA 57.537 57.537 57.259 LAA 6 5 11
44 08-18-2011 Colby Lewis Jered Weaver TEX LAA LAA 57.537 57.537 54.614 LAA 1 2 3
45 09-24-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Jerome Williams OAK LAA LAA 57.447 57.447 51.88 LAA 2 4 6
46 06-29-2011 Jordan Zimmerman Dan Haren WAS LAA LAA 57.173 57.173 55.365 LAA 0 1 1
47 04-01-11 Dan Haren Jeff Francis LAA KC LAA 56.897 56.897 55.364 KC 1 2 3
48 05-19-2011 Dan Haren Doug Fister LAA SEA LAA 56.803 56.803 49.937 SEA 1 2 3
49 04-02-11 Ervin Santana Kyle Davies LAA KC LAA 56.71 56.71 52.241 KC 4 5 9
50 07-20-2011 Derek Holland Dan Haren TEX LAA LAA 56.616 56.616 51.704 LAA 8 9 17
51 08-20-2011 Tommy Hunter Joel Pineiro BAL LAA LAA 56.616 56.616 47.661 LAA 8 9 17
52 09-09-11 Bartolo Colon Jered Weaver NYA LAA LAA 56.236 56.236 49.728 LAA 1 2 3
53 05-18-2011 Jered Weaver Jason Vargas LAA SEA LAA 56.236 56.236 51.285 SEA 0 3 3
54 07-26-2011 Jered Weaver Josh Tomlin LAA CLE LAA 56.236 56.236 56.005 LAA 2 1 3
55 07-10-11 Felx Hernandez Dan Haren SEA LAA LAA 56.14 56.14 55.951 LAA 2 4 6
56 06-14-2011 Jered Weaver Doug Fister LAA SEA LAA 56.044 56.044 49.87 LAA 4 0 4
57 06-24-2011 Dan Haren Rubby DeLaRosa LAA LAN LAA 56.044 56.044 55.378 LAA 8 3 11
58 06-27-2011 John Lannan Ervin Santana WAS LAA LAA 56.044 56.044 53.916 LAA 3 4 7
59 04-11-11 Mitch Talbot Tyler Chatwood CLE LAA LAA 55.556 55.556 51.408 CLE 4 0 4
60 07-02-11 Clayton Kershaw Jered Weaver LAN LAA LAA 55.056 55.056 57.853 LAA 1 7 8
61 08-14-2011 Dan Haren Brett Cecil LAA TOR LAA 55.056 55.056 53.079 TOR 4 5 9
62 08-30-2011 Jerome Williams Anthony Vasquez LAA SEA LAA 55.056 55.056 49.535 LAA 13 6 19
63 09-26-2011 C.J. Wilson Dan Haren TEX LAA LAA 55.056 55.056 42.057 TEX 4 3 7
64 04-15-2011 Jered Weaver Phil Humber LAA CHA LAA 54.853 54.853 58.163 LAA 4 3 7
65 06-13-2011 Dan Haren Jason Vargas LAA SEA LAA 54.853 54.853 52.484 LAA 6 3 9
66 06-28-2011 Jason Marquis Joel Pineiro WAS LAA LAA 54.853 54.853 51.758 LAA 5 11 16
67 07-30-2011 Dan Haren Duane Below LAA DET LAA 54.853 54.853 50.094 LAA 5 1 6
68 06-18-2011 Dan Haren Mike Pelfrey LAA NYN LAA 54.751 54.751 53.318 NYN 1 6 7
69 07-25-2011 Dan Haren Fausto Carmona LAA CLE LAA 54.649 54.649 55.202 CLE 2 3 5
70 08-07-11 Felx Hernandez Ervin Santana SEA LAA LAA 54.545 54.545 55.804 LAA 1 2 3
71 06-21-2011 Ervin Santana Javier Vazquez LAA FLA LAA 54.442 54.442 50.976 FLA 2 5 7
72 07-21-2011 C.J. Wilson Jered Weaver TEX LAA LAA 54.233 54.233 49.143 LAA 0 1 1
73 06-20-2011 Jered Weaver Anibal Sanchez LAA FLA LAA 54.023 54.023 49.496 LAA 2 1 3
74 08-29-2011 Joel Pineiro Blake Beavan LAA SEA LAA 54.023 54.023 50.329 SEA 3 5 8
75 09-25-2011 Rich Harden Joel Pineiro OAK LAA LAA 53.704 53.704 55.092 OAK 6 5 11
76 07-04-11 Charlie Furbush Joel Pineiro DET LAA LAA 53.596 53.596 51.355 LAA 1 5 6
77 07-15-2011 Dan Haren Brandon McCarthy LAA OAK LAA 53.596 53.596 46.483 OAK 3 5 8
78 04-08-11 Kyle Drabek Ervin Santana TOR LAA LAA 53.488 53.488 57.198 TOR 3 2 5
79 07-27-2011 Ervin Santana David Huff LAA CLE LAA 53.488 53.488 50.734 LAA 3 1 4
80 05-10-11 John Danks Joel Pineiro CHA LAA LAA 53.271 53.271 52.626 LAA 2 6 8
81 08-13-2011 Jered Weaver Ricky Romero LAA TOR LAA 52.941 52.941 50.859 TOR 2 11 13
82 07-06-11 Brad Penny Tyler Chatwood DET LAA LAA 52.719 52.719 50.523 DET 5 4 9
83 07-16-2011 Jered Weaver Trevor Cahill LAA OAK LAA 52.719 52.719 51.297 LAA 4 2 6
84 09-22-2011 Ervin Santana Henderson Alvarez LAA TOR LAA 52.719 52.719 52.84 TOR 3 4 7
85 09-11-11 Freddy Garcia Ervin Santana NYA LAA LAA 51.807 51.807 46.919 NYA 6 5 11
86 05-31-2011 Joel Pineiro Jeff Francis LAA KC LAA 51.807 51.807 52.029 KC 3 7 10
87 08-31-2011 Dan Haren Felx Hernandez LAA SEA LAA 51.807 51.807 48.607 SEA 1 2 3
88 07-01-11 Hiroki Kuroda Tyler Chatwood LAN LAA LAA 51.574 51.574 57.108 LAN 5 0 5
89 04-23-2011 Daisuke Matsuzaka Ervin Santana BOS LAA LAA 51.574 51.574 49.582 BOS 5 0 5
90 05-14-2011 Dan Haren Derek Holland LAA TEX LAA 51.338 51.338 49.325 LAA 3 2 5
91 07-22-2011 Ervin Santana Alfredo Simon LAA BAL LAA 51.338 51.338 46.618 LAA 6 1 7
92 08-17-2011 C.J. Wilson Ervin Santana TEX LAA LAA 51.338 51.338 42.85 TEX 4 3 7
93 05-30-2011 Ervin Santana Luke Hochevar LAA KC LAA 51.22 51.22 58.079 LAA 10 8 18
94 04-17-2011 Dan Haren Mark Buehrle LAA CHA LAA 50.86 50.86 47.758 LAA 4 2 6
95 05-02-11 Jered Weaver Clay Buchholz LAA BOS LAA 50.739 50.739 49.926 BOS 5 9 14
96 06-01-11 Tyler Chatwood Felipe Paulino LAA KC LAA 50.617 50.617 50.843 KC 0 2 2
97 05-11-11 Jake Peavy Tyler Chatwood CHA LAA LAA 50.617 50.617 51.33 CHA 6 4 10
98 07-16-2011 Ervin Santana Rich Harden LAA OAK LAA 50.617 50.617 48.91 OAK 3 4 7
99 04-05-11 Jered Weaver Jeff Niemann LAA TB LAA 50.495 50.495 53.554 LAA 5 3 8
100 06-22-2011 Joel Pineiro Brian Sanches LAA FLA LAA 50.495 50.495 50.392 LAA 6 5 11
101 08-03-11 Scott Baker Joel Pineiro MIN LAA MIN 50.249 49.751 45.067 MIN 11 4 15
102 05-25-2011 Trevor Cahill Ervin Santana OAK LAA OAK 50.249 49.751 46.883 LAA 1 4 5
103 07-23-2011 Joel Pineiro Brad Bergesen LAA BAL BAL 50.617 49.383 44.659 BAL 2 3 5
104 05-26-2011 Brett Anderson Joel Pineiro OAK LAA OAK 50.739 49.261 40.41 OAK 4 3 7
105 07-09-11 Michael Pineda Joel Pineiro SEA LAA SEA 50.86 49.14 52.34 LAA 3 9 12
106 04-22-2011 Jon Lester Dan Haren BOS LAA BOS 51.1 48.9 47.437 BOS 4 3 7
107 06-26-2011 Jered Weaver Clayton Kershaw LAA LAN LAN 51.1 48.9 45.101 LAN 2 3 5
108 04-03-11 Scott Kazmir Bruce Chen LAA KC KC 51.22 48.78 51.187 KC 9 12 21
109 04-06-11 Dan Haren Jeremy Hellickson LAA TB TB 51.22 48.78 50.655 LAA 5 1 6
110 05-13-2011 Jered Weaver Alexi Ogando LAA TEX TEX 51.338 48.662 52.345 TEX 1 4 5
111 08-04-11 Francisco Liriano Tyler Chatwood MIN LAA MIN 51.574 48.426 48.389 LAA 1 7 8
112 08-09-11 Dan Haren A.J. Burnett LAA NYA NYA 51.807 48.193 44.132 LAA 6 4 10
113 08-28-2011 Jered Weaver Colby Lewis LAA TEX TEX 51.807 48.193 42.653 TEX 5 9 14
114 05-06-11 Justin Masterson Tyler Chatwood CLE LAA CLE 52.038 47.962 45.384 LAA 1 2 3
115 04-20-2011 Jered Weaver Matt Harrison LAA TEX TEX 52.153 47.847 47.399 LAA 4 1 5
116 05-20-2011 Tim Hudson Ervin Santana ATL LAA ATL 52.267 47.733 49.074 LAA 0 9 9
117 08-26-2011 Dan Haren Derek Holland LAA TEX TEX 52.494 47.506 39.162 TEX 7 11 18
118 07-05-11 Justin Verlander Dan Haren DET LAA DET 52.941 47.059 47.647 LAA 0 1 1
119 09-20-2011 Joel Pineiro Brett Cecil LAA TOR TOR 52.941 47.059 45.56 LAA 10 6 16
120 07-24-2011 Tyler Chatwood Jeremy Guthrie LAA BAL BAL 53.162 46.838 43.868 LAA 9 3 12
121 09-27-2011 Colby Lewis Ervin Santana TEX LAA TEX 53.162 46.838 46.95 TEX 10 3 13
122 04-26-2011 Brandon McCarthy Tyler Chatwood OAK LAA OAK 53.38 46.62 42.305 LAA 3 8 11
123 09-13-2011 Jerome Williams Guillermo Moscoso LAA OAK OAK 53.38 46.62 40.338 LAA 6 3 9
124 05-21-2011 Tommy Hanson Joel Pineiro ATL LAA ATL 53.488 46.512 46.279 ATL 5 4 9
125 06-17-2011 Joel Pineiro Chris Capuano LAA NYN NYN 53.704 46.296 42.934 LAA 4 3 7
126 06-15-2011 Ervin Santana Erik Bedard LAA SEA SEA 53.811 46.189 43.712 SEA 1 3 4
127 08-16-2011 Derek Holland Tyler Chatwood TEX LAA TEX 54.442 45.558 44.239 TEX 7 3 10
128 06-05-11 Bartolo Colon Joel Pineiro NYA LAA NYA 54.649 45.351 45.495 NYA 5 3 8
129 08-12-11 Ervin Santana Brandon Morrow LAA TOR TOR 55.056 44.944 40.878 LAA 5 1 6
130 05-27-2011 Tyler Chatwood Scott Baker LAA MIN MIN 55.056 44.944 46.858 LAA 6 5 11
131 09-10-11 C.C. Sabathia Dan Haren NYA LAA NYA 56.044 43.956 42.823 LAA 0 6 6
132 07-19-2011 Alexi Ogando Tyler Chatwood TEX LAA TEX 56.044 43.956 45.418 TEX 7 0 7
133 05-15-2011 Ervin Santana C.J. Wilson LAA TEX TEX 56.14 43.86 36.671 TEX 4 5 9
134 05-22-2011 Derek Lowe Tyler Chatwood ATL LAA ATL 56.236 43.764 45.235 LAA 1 4 5
135 05-16-2011 Joel Pineiro Brett Anderson LAA OAK OAK 56.427 43.573 32.376 OAK 4 5 9
136 07-31-2011 Jered Weaver Justin Verlander LAA DET DET 56.427 43.573 39.39 DET 2 3 5
137 06-25-2011 Tyler Chatwood Hiroki Kuroda LAA LAN LAN 56.616 43.384 44.035 LAA 6 1 7
138 07-28-2011 Joel Pineiro Brad Penny LAA DET DET 56.616 43.384 40.919 LAA 12 7 19
139 07-17-2011 Joel Pineiro Gio Gonzalez LAA OAK OAK 56.71 43.29 42.551 OAK 1 9 10
140 06-06-11 David Price Tyler Chatwood TB LAA TB 56.803 43.197 40.989 TB 5 1 6
141 04-24-2011 John Lackey Matt Palmer BOS LAA BOS 56.803 43.197 41.177 BOS 7 0 7
142 09-19-2011 Jerome Williams Ricky Romero LAA TOR TOR 56.897 43.103 40.52 TOR 2 3 5
143 04-29-2011 Ervin Santana David Price LAA TB TB 56.989 43.011 45.785 LAA 8 5 13
144 05-01-11 Tyler Chatwood Alex Cobb LAA TB TB 57.447 42.553 46.051 LAA 6 5 11
145 06-19-2011 Tyler Chatwood John Niese LAA NYN NYN 57.537 42.463 39.187 LAA 7 3 10
146 09-12-11 Joel Pineiro Gio Gonzalez LAA OAK OAK 57.717 42.283 37.362 OAK 3 6 9
147 07-29-2011 Tyler Chatwood Rick Porcello LAA DET DET 58.071 41.929 38.804 DET 2 12 14
148 04-18-2011 Ervin Santana C.J. Wilson LAA TEX TEX 58.592 41.408 34.977 TEX 1 7 8
149 08-15-2011 Alexi Ogando Garrett Richards TEX LAA TEX 58.763 41.237 39.78 TEX 8 4 12
150 05-03-11 Dan Haren Jon Lester LAA BOS BOS 59.016 40.984 39.681 BOS 3 7 10
151 05-05-11 Joel Pineiro John Lackey LAA BOS BOS 59.35 40.65 36.244 LAA 11 0 11
152 05-17-2011 Tyler Chatwood Gio Gonzalez LAA OAK OAK 59.677 40.323 34.473 OAK 0 14 14
153 04-30-2011 Joel Pineiro James Shields LAA TB TB 60 40 46.122 TB 1 2 3
154 04-21-2011 Josh Beckett Tyler Chatwood BOS LAA BOS 60.707 39.293 39.789 BOS 4 2 6
155 06-04-11 C.C. Sabathia Ervin Santana NYA LAA NYA 61.165 38.835 38.56 NYA 3 2 5
156 04-16-2011 Tyler Chatwood Gavin Floyd LAA CHA CHA 62.335 37.665 37.105 LAA 7 2 9
157 09-28-2011 Matt Harrison Garrett Richards TEX LAA TEX 62.617 37.383 36.202 TEX 3 1 4
158 04-19-2011 Matt Palmer Colby Lewis LAA TEX TEX 62.894 37.106 35.123 LAA 15 4 19
159 05-04-11 Ervin Santana Josh Beckett LAA BOS BOS 63.57 36.43 37.462 LAA 5 3 8
160 08-11-11 Tyler Chatwood Bartolo Colon LAA NYA NYA 65.096 34.904 32.308 NYA 5 6 11
161 08-10-11 Garrett Richards Ivan Nova LAA NYA NYA 68.553 31.447 31.488 NYA 3 9 12
162 08-27-2011 Ervin Santana C.J. Wilson LAA TEX TEX 69.231 30.769 30.633 LAA 8 4 12

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