2011 Angels, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2011 9:59 PM PST

Here is a look at how the Angels 2011 game by game actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Angels games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5226 which translates to an expected win total of 84.66 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Angels game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4969 or 80.51 wins. The Angels actually went 86-76 on the season. The Angels outplayed their Vegas and simulator win expectancies. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Angels were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	LAA Win Perc	Sim LAA Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	09-05-11	Anthony Vasquez	Dan Haren	SEA	LAA	LAA	72.973	72.973	67.02	LAA	3	7	10
2	09-03-11	Brian Duensing	Joel Pineiro	MIN	LAA	LAA	71.831	71.831	53.77	LAA	6	10	16
3	08-05-11	Jason Vargas	Jered Weaver	SEA	LAA	LAA	70.588	70.588	65.207	LAA	0	1	1
4	09-02-11	Carl Pavano	Jered Weaver	MIN	LAA	LAA	69.231	69.231	63.206	MIN	13	5	18
5	08-19-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Dan Haren	BAL	LAA	LAA	69.231	69.231	59.975	LAA	3	8	11
6	08-24-2011	Zach Stewart	Jered Weaver	CHA	LAA	LAA	67.427	67.427	61.392	LAA	0	8	8
7	09-07-11	Charles Furbush	Jerome Williams	SEA	LAA	LAA	66.102	66.102	57.882	LAA	1	3	4
8	05-24-2011	Guillermo Moscoso	Dan Haren	OAK	LAA	LAA	65.398	65.398	60.795	OAK	6	1	7
9	05-23-2011	Josh Outman	Jered Weaver	OAK	LAA	LAA	64.851	64.851	59.918	LAA	1	4	5
10	09-16-2011	Dan Haren	Tommy Hunter	LAA	BAL	LAA	63.702	63.702	54.674	BAL	3	8	11
11	09-23-2011	Gio Gonzalez	Jered Weaver	OAK	LAA	LAA	63.57	63.57	55.13	OAK	3	1	4
12	05-07-11	Alex White	Jered Weaver	CLE	LAA	LAA	63.168	63.168	68.056	CLE	4	3	7
13	07-07-11	Doug Fister	Jered Weaver	SEA	LAA	LAA	63.168	63.168	58.55	LAA	1	5	6
14	09-18-2011	Jered Weaver	Alfredo Simon	LAA	BAL	LAA	62.406	62.406	51.21	LAA	11	2	13
15	04-10-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Jered Weaver	TOR	LAA	LAA	62.335	62.335	65.143	LAA	1	3	4
16	04-12-11	Fausto Carmona	Dan Haren	CLE	LAA	LAA	61.686	61.686	59.467	LAA	0	2	2
17	04-27-2011	Tyson Ross	Dan Haren	OAK	LAA	LAA	61.686	61.686	59.644	OAK	2	1	3
18	06-07-11	Alex Cobb	Dan Haren	TB	LAA	LAA	61.538	61.538	60.245	TB	4	1	5
19	05-28-2011	Jered Weaver	Anthony Swarzak	LAA	MIN	LAA	61.538	61.538	61.804	MIN	0	1	1
20	07-08-11	Blake Beavan	Ervin Santana	SEA	LAA	LAA	61.464	61.464	58.529	LAA	3	4	7
21	08-02-11	Brian Duensing	Ervin Santana	MIN	LAA	LAA	61.315	61.315	54.462	LAA	1	5	6
22	09-04-11	Kevin Slowey	Joel Pineiro	MIN	LAA	LAA	60.861	60.861	52.629	LAA	1	4	5
23	06-03-11	Ivan Nova	Jered Weaver	NYA	LAA	LAA	60.707	60.707	55.535	LAA	2	3	5
24	09-01-11	Ervin Santana	Charles Furbush	LAA	SEA	LAA	60.552	60.552	54.286	LAA	4	3	7
25	05-08-11	Fausto Carmona	Dan Haren	CLE	LAA	LAA	60	60	62.236	LAA	5	6	11
26	04-13-2011	Carlos Carrasco	Ervin Santana	CLE	LAA	LAA	59.432	59.432	56.851	LAA	3	4	7
27	08-06-11	Blake Beavan	Tyler Chatwood	SEA	LAA	LAA	59.1	59.1	59.062	SEA	5	1	6
28	06-10-11	Jeff Francis	Ervin Santana	KC	LAA	LAA	59.1	59.1	58.023	KC	4	2	6
29	06-12-11	Vin Mazzaro	Tyler Chatwood	KC	LAA	LAA	59.016	59.016	62.118	KC	9	0	9
30	04-25-2011	Gio Gonzalez	Jered Weaver	OAK	LAA	LAA	58.932	58.932	57.45	LAA	0	5	5
31	08-23-2011	Mark Buehrle	Ervin Santana	CHA	LAA	LAA	58.848	58.848	55.273	LAA	4	5	9
32	09-14-2011	Jered Weaver	Rich Harden	LAA	OAK	LAA	58.763	58.763	52.318	LAA	4	1	5
33	06-08-11	James Shields	Jered Weaver	TB	LAA	LAA	58.592	58.592	59.744	TB	4	3	7
34	05-09-11	Edwin Jackson	Ervin Santana	CHA	LAA	LAA	58.592	58.592	56.294	CHA	8	0	8
35	08-21-2011	Brian Matusz	Jerome Williams	BAL	LAA	LAA	58.592	58.592	49.639	LAA	1	7	8
36	09-17-2011	Ervin Santana	Zach Britton	LAA	BAL	LAA	58.333	58.333	43.66	BAL	2	6	8
37	04-09-11	Ricky Romero	Jered Weaver	TOR	LAA	LAA	58.246	58.246	58.599	LAA	5	6	11
38	09-21-2011	Dan Haren	Dustin McGowan	LAA	TOR	LAA	58.159	58.159	56.08	LAA	7	2	9
39	09-06-11	Felx Hernandez	Ervin Santana	SEA	LAA	LAA	58.071	58.071	54.93	SEA	2	1	3
40	07-03-11	Chad Billingsley	Ervin Santana	LAN	LAA	LAA	57.983	57.983	53.379	LAA	1	3	4
41	06-11-11	Felipe Paulino	Joel Pineiro	KC	LAA	LAA	57.983	57.983	58.505	LAA	5	7	12
42	03-31-2011	Jered Weaver	Luke Hochevar	LAA	KC	LAA	57.627	57.627	57.6	LAA	4	2	6
43	05-29-2011	Dan Haren	Carl Pavano	LAA	MIN	LAA	57.537	57.537	57.259	LAA	6	5	11
44	08-18-2011	Colby Lewis	Jered Weaver	TEX	LAA	LAA	57.537	57.537	54.614	LAA	1	2	3
45	09-24-2011	Guillermo Moscoso	Jerome Williams	OAK	LAA	LAA	57.447	57.447	51.88	LAA	2	4	6
46	06-29-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Dan Haren	WAS	LAA	LAA	57.173	57.173	55.365	LAA	0	1	1
47	04-01-11	Dan Haren	Jeff Francis	LAA	KC	LAA	56.897	56.897	55.364	KC	1	2	3
48	05-19-2011	Dan Haren	Doug Fister	LAA	SEA	LAA	56.803	56.803	49.937	SEA	1	2	3
49	04-02-11	Ervin Santana	Kyle Davies	LAA	KC	LAA	56.71	56.71	52.241	KC	4	5	9
50	07-20-2011	Derek Holland	Dan Haren	TEX	LAA	LAA	56.616	56.616	51.704	LAA	8	9	17
51	08-20-2011	Tommy Hunter	Joel Pineiro	BAL	LAA	LAA	56.616	56.616	47.661	LAA	8	9	17
52	09-09-11	Bartolo Colon	Jered Weaver	NYA	LAA	LAA	56.236	56.236	49.728	LAA	1	2	3
53	05-18-2011	Jered Weaver	Jason Vargas	LAA	SEA	LAA	56.236	56.236	51.285	SEA	0	3	3
54	07-26-2011	Jered Weaver	Josh Tomlin	LAA	CLE	LAA	56.236	56.236	56.005	LAA	2	1	3
55	07-10-11	Felx Hernandez	Dan Haren	SEA	LAA	LAA	56.14	56.14	55.951	LAA	2	4	6
56	06-14-2011	Jered Weaver	Doug Fister	LAA	SEA	LAA	56.044	56.044	49.87	LAA	4	0	4
57	06-24-2011	Dan Haren	Rubby DeLaRosa	LAA	LAN	LAA	56.044	56.044	55.378	LAA	8	3	11
58	06-27-2011	John Lannan	Ervin Santana	WAS	LAA	LAA	56.044	56.044	53.916	LAA	3	4	7
59	04-11-11	Mitch Talbot	Tyler Chatwood	CLE	LAA	LAA	55.556	55.556	51.408	CLE	4	0	4
60	07-02-11	Clayton Kershaw	Jered Weaver	LAN	LAA	LAA	55.056	55.056	57.853	LAA	1	7	8
61	08-14-2011	Dan Haren	Brett Cecil	LAA	TOR	LAA	55.056	55.056	53.079	TOR	4	5	9
62	08-30-2011	Jerome Williams	Anthony Vasquez	LAA	SEA	LAA	55.056	55.056	49.535	LAA	13	6	19
63	09-26-2011	C.J. Wilson	Dan Haren	TEX	LAA	LAA	55.056	55.056	42.057	TEX	4	3	7
64	04-15-2011	Jered Weaver	Phil Humber	LAA	CHA	LAA	54.853	54.853	58.163	LAA	4	3	7
65	06-13-2011	Dan Haren	Jason Vargas	LAA	SEA	LAA	54.853	54.853	52.484	LAA	6	3	9
66	06-28-2011	Jason Marquis	Joel Pineiro	WAS	LAA	LAA	54.853	54.853	51.758	LAA	5	11	16
67	07-30-2011	Dan Haren	Duane Below	LAA	DET	LAA	54.853	54.853	50.094	LAA	5	1	6
68	06-18-2011	Dan Haren	Mike Pelfrey	LAA	NYN	LAA	54.751	54.751	53.318	NYN	1	6	7
69	07-25-2011	Dan Haren	Fausto Carmona	LAA	CLE	LAA	54.649	54.649	55.202	CLE	2	3	5
70	08-07-11	Felx Hernandez	Ervin Santana	SEA	LAA	LAA	54.545	54.545	55.804	LAA	1	2	3
71	06-21-2011	Ervin Santana	Javier Vazquez	LAA	FLA	LAA	54.442	54.442	50.976	FLA	2	5	7
72	07-21-2011	C.J. Wilson	Jered Weaver	TEX	LAA	LAA	54.233	54.233	49.143	LAA	0	1	1
73	06-20-2011	Jered Weaver	Anibal Sanchez	LAA	FLA	LAA	54.023	54.023	49.496	LAA	2	1	3
74	08-29-2011	Joel Pineiro	Blake Beavan	LAA	SEA	LAA	54.023	54.023	50.329	SEA	3	5	8
75	09-25-2011	Rich Harden	Joel Pineiro	OAK	LAA	LAA	53.704	53.704	55.092	OAK	6	5	11
76	07-04-11	Charlie Furbush	Joel Pineiro	DET	LAA	LAA	53.596	53.596	51.355	LAA	1	5	6
77	07-15-2011	Dan Haren	Brandon McCarthy	LAA	OAK	LAA	53.596	53.596	46.483	OAK	3	5	8
78	04-08-11	Kyle Drabek	Ervin Santana	TOR	LAA	LAA	53.488	53.488	57.198	TOR	3	2	5
79	07-27-2011	Ervin Santana	David Huff	LAA	CLE	LAA	53.488	53.488	50.734	LAA	3	1	4
80	05-10-11	John Danks	Joel Pineiro	CHA	LAA	LAA	53.271	53.271	52.626	LAA	2	6	8
81	08-13-2011	Jered Weaver	Ricky Romero	LAA	TOR	LAA	52.941	52.941	50.859	TOR	2	11	13
82	07-06-11	Brad Penny	Tyler Chatwood	DET	LAA	LAA	52.719	52.719	50.523	DET	5	4	9
83	07-16-2011	Jered Weaver	Trevor Cahill	LAA	OAK	LAA	52.719	52.719	51.297	LAA	4	2	6
84	09-22-2011	Ervin Santana	Henderson Alvarez	LAA	TOR	LAA	52.719	52.719	52.84	TOR	3	4	7
85	09-11-11	Freddy Garcia	Ervin Santana	NYA	LAA	LAA	51.807	51.807	46.919	NYA	6	5	11
86	05-31-2011	Joel Pineiro	Jeff Francis	LAA	KC	LAA	51.807	51.807	52.029	KC	3	7	10
87	08-31-2011	Dan Haren	Felx Hernandez	LAA	SEA	LAA	51.807	51.807	48.607	SEA	1	2	3
88	07-01-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Tyler Chatwood	LAN	LAA	LAA	51.574	51.574	57.108	LAN	5	0	5
89	04-23-2011	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Ervin Santana	BOS	LAA	LAA	51.574	51.574	49.582	BOS	5	0	5
90	05-14-2011	Dan Haren	Derek Holland	LAA	TEX	LAA	51.338	51.338	49.325	LAA	3	2	5
91	07-22-2011	Ervin Santana	Alfredo Simon	LAA	BAL	LAA	51.338	51.338	46.618	LAA	6	1	7
92	08-17-2011	C.J. Wilson	Ervin Santana	TEX	LAA	LAA	51.338	51.338	42.85	TEX	4	3	7
93	05-30-2011	Ervin Santana	Luke Hochevar	LAA	KC	LAA	51.22	51.22	58.079	LAA	10	8	18
94	04-17-2011	Dan Haren	Mark Buehrle	LAA	CHA	LAA	50.86	50.86	47.758	LAA	4	2	6
95	05-02-11	Jered Weaver	Clay Buchholz	LAA	BOS	LAA	50.739	50.739	49.926	BOS	5	9	14
96	06-01-11	Tyler Chatwood	Felipe Paulino	LAA	KC	LAA	50.617	50.617	50.843	KC	0	2	2
97	05-11-11	Jake Peavy	Tyler Chatwood	CHA	LAA	LAA	50.617	50.617	51.33	CHA	6	4	10
98	07-16-2011	Ervin Santana	Rich Harden	LAA	OAK	LAA	50.617	50.617	48.91	OAK	3	4	7
99	04-05-11	Jered Weaver	Jeff Niemann	LAA	TB	LAA	50.495	50.495	53.554	LAA	5	3	8
100	06-22-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brian Sanches	LAA	FLA	LAA	50.495	50.495	50.392	LAA	6	5	11
101	08-03-11	Scott Baker	Joel Pineiro	MIN	LAA	MIN	50.249	49.751	45.067	MIN	11	4	15
102	05-25-2011	Trevor Cahill	Ervin Santana	OAK	LAA	OAK	50.249	49.751	46.883	LAA	1	4	5
103	07-23-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brad Bergesen	LAA	BAL	BAL	50.617	49.383	44.659	BAL	2	3	5
104	05-26-2011	Brett Anderson	Joel Pineiro	OAK	LAA	OAK	50.739	49.261	40.41	OAK	4	3	7
105	07-09-11	Michael Pineda	Joel Pineiro	SEA	LAA	SEA	50.86	49.14	52.34	LAA	3	9	12
106	04-22-2011	Jon Lester	Dan Haren	BOS	LAA	BOS	51.1	48.9	47.437	BOS	4	3	7
107	06-26-2011	Jered Weaver	Clayton Kershaw	LAA	LAN	LAN	51.1	48.9	45.101	LAN	2	3	5
108	04-03-11	Scott Kazmir	Bruce Chen	LAA	KC	KC	51.22	48.78	51.187	KC	9	12	21
109	04-06-11	Dan Haren	Jeremy Hellickson	LAA	TB	TB	51.22	48.78	50.655	LAA	5	1	6
110	05-13-2011	Jered Weaver	Alexi Ogando	LAA	TEX	TEX	51.338	48.662	52.345	TEX	1	4	5
111	08-04-11	Francisco Liriano	Tyler Chatwood	MIN	LAA	MIN	51.574	48.426	48.389	LAA	1	7	8
112	08-09-11	Dan Haren	A.J. Burnett	LAA	NYA	NYA	51.807	48.193	44.132	LAA	6	4	10
113	08-28-2011	Jered Weaver	Colby Lewis	LAA	TEX	TEX	51.807	48.193	42.653	TEX	5	9	14
114	05-06-11	Justin Masterson	Tyler Chatwood	CLE	LAA	CLE	52.038	47.962	45.384	LAA	1	2	3
115	04-20-2011	Jered Weaver	Matt Harrison	LAA	TEX	TEX	52.153	47.847	47.399	LAA	4	1	5
116	05-20-2011	Tim Hudson	Ervin Santana	ATL	LAA	ATL	52.267	47.733	49.074	LAA	0	9	9
117	08-26-2011	Dan Haren	Derek Holland	LAA	TEX	TEX	52.494	47.506	39.162	TEX	7	11	18
118	07-05-11	Justin Verlander	Dan Haren	DET	LAA	DET	52.941	47.059	47.647	LAA	0	1	1
119	09-20-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brett Cecil	LAA	TOR	TOR	52.941	47.059	45.56	LAA	10	6	16
120	07-24-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Jeremy Guthrie	LAA	BAL	BAL	53.162	46.838	43.868	LAA	9	3	12
121	09-27-2011	Colby Lewis	Ervin Santana	TEX	LAA	TEX	53.162	46.838	46.95	TEX	10	3	13
122	04-26-2011	Brandon McCarthy	Tyler Chatwood	OAK	LAA	OAK	53.38	46.62	42.305	LAA	3	8	11
123	09-13-2011	Jerome Williams	Guillermo Moscoso	LAA	OAK	OAK	53.38	46.62	40.338	LAA	6	3	9
124	05-21-2011	Tommy Hanson	Joel Pineiro	ATL	LAA	ATL	53.488	46.512	46.279	ATL	5	4	9
125	06-17-2011	Joel Pineiro	Chris Capuano	LAA	NYN	NYN	53.704	46.296	42.934	LAA	4	3	7
126	06-15-2011	Ervin Santana	Erik Bedard	LAA	SEA	SEA	53.811	46.189	43.712	SEA	1	3	4
127	08-16-2011	Derek Holland	Tyler Chatwood	TEX	LAA	TEX	54.442	45.558	44.239	TEX	7	3	10
128	06-05-11	Bartolo Colon	Joel Pineiro	NYA	LAA	NYA	54.649	45.351	45.495	NYA	5	3	8
129	08-12-11	Ervin Santana	Brandon Morrow	LAA	TOR	TOR	55.056	44.944	40.878	LAA	5	1	6
130	05-27-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Scott Baker	LAA	MIN	MIN	55.056	44.944	46.858	LAA	6	5	11
131	09-10-11	C.C. Sabathia	Dan Haren	NYA	LAA	NYA	56.044	43.956	42.823	LAA	0	6	6
132	07-19-2011	Alexi Ogando	Tyler Chatwood	TEX	LAA	TEX	56.044	43.956	45.418	TEX	7	0	7
133	05-15-2011	Ervin Santana	C.J. Wilson	LAA	TEX	TEX	56.14	43.86	36.671	TEX	4	5	9
134	05-22-2011	Derek Lowe	Tyler Chatwood	ATL	LAA	ATL	56.236	43.764	45.235	LAA	1	4	5
135	05-16-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brett Anderson	LAA	OAK	OAK	56.427	43.573	32.376	OAK	4	5	9
136	07-31-2011	Jered Weaver	Justin Verlander	LAA	DET	DET	56.427	43.573	39.39	DET	2	3	5
137	06-25-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Hiroki Kuroda	LAA	LAN	LAN	56.616	43.384	44.035	LAA	6	1	7
138	07-28-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brad Penny	LAA	DET	DET	56.616	43.384	40.919	LAA	12	7	19
139	07-17-2011	Joel Pineiro	Gio Gonzalez	LAA	OAK	OAK	56.71	43.29	42.551	OAK	1	9	10
140	06-06-11	David Price	Tyler Chatwood	TB	LAA	TB	56.803	43.197	40.989	TB	5	1	6
141	04-24-2011	John Lackey	Matt Palmer	BOS	LAA	BOS	56.803	43.197	41.177	BOS	7	0	7
142	09-19-2011	Jerome Williams	Ricky Romero	LAA	TOR	TOR	56.897	43.103	40.52	TOR	2	3	5
143	04-29-2011	Ervin Santana	David Price	LAA	TB	TB	56.989	43.011	45.785	LAA	8	5	13
144	05-01-11	Tyler Chatwood	Alex Cobb	LAA	TB	TB	57.447	42.553	46.051	LAA	6	5	11
145	06-19-2011	Tyler Chatwood	John Niese	LAA	NYN	NYN	57.537	42.463	39.187	LAA	7	3	10
146	09-12-11	Joel Pineiro	Gio Gonzalez	LAA	OAK	OAK	57.717	42.283	37.362	OAK	3	6	9
147	07-29-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Rick Porcello	LAA	DET	DET	58.071	41.929	38.804	DET	2	12	14
148	04-18-2011	Ervin Santana	C.J. Wilson	LAA	TEX	TEX	58.592	41.408	34.977	TEX	1	7	8
149	08-15-2011	Alexi Ogando	Garrett Richards	TEX	LAA	TEX	58.763	41.237	39.78	TEX	8	4	12
150	05-03-11	Dan Haren	Jon Lester	LAA	BOS	BOS	59.016	40.984	39.681	BOS	3	7	10
151	05-05-11	Joel Pineiro	John Lackey	LAA	BOS	BOS	59.35	40.65	36.244	LAA	11	0	11
152	05-17-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Gio Gonzalez	LAA	OAK	OAK	59.677	40.323	34.473	OAK	0	14	14
153	04-30-2011	Joel Pineiro	James Shields	LAA	TB	TB	60	40	46.122	TB	1	2	3
154	04-21-2011	Josh Beckett	Tyler Chatwood	BOS	LAA	BOS	60.707	39.293	39.789	BOS	4	2	6
155	06-04-11	C.C. Sabathia	Ervin Santana	NYA	LAA	NYA	61.165	38.835	38.56	NYA	3	2	5
156	04-16-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Gavin Floyd	LAA	CHA	CHA	62.335	37.665	37.105	LAA	7	2	9
157	09-28-2011	Matt Harrison	Garrett Richards	TEX	LAA	TEX	62.617	37.383	36.202	TEX	3	1	4
158	04-19-2011	Matt Palmer	Colby Lewis	LAA	TEX	TEX	62.894	37.106	35.123	LAA	15	4	19
159	05-04-11	Ervin Santana	Josh Beckett	LAA	BOS	BOS	63.57	36.43	37.462	LAA	5	3	8
160	08-11-11	Tyler Chatwood	Bartolo Colon	LAA	NYA	NYA	65.096	34.904	32.308	NYA	5	6	11
161	08-10-11	Garrett Richards	Ivan Nova	LAA	NYA	NYA	68.553	31.447	31.488	NYA	3	9	12
162	08-27-2011	Ervin Santana	C.J. Wilson	LAA	TEX	TEX	69.231	30.769	30.633	LAA	8	4	12

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Some extra data points

First 3rd of the season (Games 1 to 54).
Vegas expected wins: 27.32
Simulator expected wins: 26.58
Actual record: 27-27

Second 3rd of the season (Games 55-108)
Vegas expected wins: 28.26
Simulator expected wins: 27.41
Actual record: 32-22

Last 3rd of the season (Games 109-162)
Vegas expected wins: 29.07
Simulator expected wins: 27.41
Actual record: 27-27

Vegas thought the last third, followed by the second third and lastly the first third of the season would have the most wins. My simulator thought the Angels best third of the season would be the middle third with the other two as tossups. It turned out that the Angels won the most games in the middle third (32) with the first and last third playing .500 ball (27 wins).

Here are how the Angels did vs Vegas with certain starting pitchers pitching.

1. Jered Weaver
GS: 34
Team Record: 22-12
Vegas Record: 18.60 – 15.40
The Angels won 3.4 more games than expected win Weaver started.

2. Ervin Santana
GS: 34
Team Record: 17-17
Vegas Record: 16.64 – 17.36

3. Dan Haren
GS: 33
Team Record: 18-15
Vegas Record: 17.31 – 15.69

4. Tyler Chatwood
GS: 24
Team Record: 10-14
Vegas Record: 10.97 – 13.03

5. Joel Pineiro
GS: 25
Team Record: 13-12
Vegas Record: 11.74 – 13.26

6. Jerome Williams
GS: 6
Team Record: 5-1
Vegas Record: 2.90 – 3.10

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2011 10:54 PM PST reply actions

Can you explain what your simulator is and how it was applied?

Nice work.

by Brody on Nov 19, 2011 10:01 AM PST up reply actions

my simulator

uses a proprietary set of hitter/pitcher projections and plays an actual baseball game. It takes into consideration many things like defense, speed/baserunning, home field advantage, splits, pitchers tiring and a few other things you will find in baseball. I then run each game 100K times to come up with the win expectancies, run totals and box scores. Any other questions?

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 19, 2011 9:08 PM PST up reply actions

I have a question

Where did you obtain the knowledge required for all this remarkable work? I’m not exactly a dope at math, but for some reason statistical analysis has always befuddled me.

You boys stick around--there'll be turkey and ice cream later!

by rspencer on Nov 20, 2011 2:14 AM PST up reply actions