Wednesday Halolinks: Projecting the Future of Mediocrity

  • A wise man once told me, "Honestly, surprised you even link to the slideshows", but when Sam Miller from the OC Register posts one, I'm all over it. Especially when Sam covers projections: Statistical projections for 2012 Angels - The Orange County Register. Within this post, Sam writes "Alberto Callaspo is projected to (narrowly) lead the Angels in batting average, at .276. Howie Kendrick is next at .275, with 15 homers and 15 steals. Erick Aybar is also projected to hit .275, and Kendrys Morales is at .274." I respect Dan Szymborkski and the work he does over at the Baseball Think Factory, but it seems that projecting a full time major league hitter to bat .275 might be giving yourself a lot of wiggle room. Obviously I don't know much about creating projections, but if I were to setup a system, I'd start with a baseline right around .275/.320/.430 and add/subtract from those numbers based on variables such as age, career numbers, and playing time. So basically, what the ZiPS numbers are telling me is; the best hitters on the 2012 Angels will be average. Hooray! Here is the entire team: BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion - 2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Angels

    By the way, the was a Halos Heaven FanShot of the projections here: Angels 2012 ZIPS Projections in which Dan Szymborkski answers a couple questions posted within the thread. It's pretty cool when things like that happen.
  • Here's something no projection system could have predicted: Bobby Abreu: Mr. Clutch 2011 - FanGraphs Baseball. "Yes, you read the title correctly. Bobby Abreu of the Los Angeles Angeles was Mr. Clutch during the 2011 season. He ended the season with the highest clutch rating in the majors, as measured here at FanGraphs."

Not sure what to think about this signing: Royals sign Jonathan Broxton - CBSSports.com. Here's a clip from the post, "Jonathan Broxton has agreed to a one-year contract with the Kansas City Royals, the team announced Tuesday morning. Scott Miller of CBSSports.com has learned it's for $4 million, but performance bonuses for number of games pitched could push the deal to $5 million." Seems pretty reasonable to me, I wonder if the Angels had checked in on him?

Looks like the Red Sox found their man: Bobby Valentine to Manage Boston Red Sox - MLB Daily Dish

Bankruptcy and budget constraints get you these types of players: Dodgers are expected to sign Adam Kennedy - latimes.com. "If the Dodgers sign Kennedy, he would join a modest free-agent haul that includes outfielder Juan Rivera (one year, $4.5 million), second baseman Mark Ellis (two years, $8.75 million) and catcher Matt Treanor (one year, $1 million)."

White Sox "trying to move" setup man Matt Thornton - HardballTalk. "He’s posted a sub-3.50 ERA in four straight seasons while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings, yet Olney says the White Sox have been shopping him since July without finding a deal. That suggests either teams are scared off by Thornton being 35 years old or Chicago’s asking price it too high for a reliever owed $12 million even if he’s been an elite setup man." I wonder if that Konerko guy wants to finally play in Anaheim? Can you say, "Package deal"?

Wait! Votto's available? I wonder what it'd take to get him? Rosenthal: Astros' Crane can make powerful statement in hiring search - FOX Sports on MSN. "Votto is affordable to the Reds this season at $9.5 million, but his salary balloons to $17 million in 2013."

A pretty interesting post over at FanGraphs: More Than They Collectively Bargained For - FanGraphs Baseball. "The real value to owning a major league team derives from the monopsonistic power that owners have on players before reaching free-agency." WTF? MONOPSONISTIC? Could it be possible they've jumped the shark?

Interesting story...MLB’s new security chief used to be a Secret Service agent - Yahoo! Sports

And finally, possibly one of the greatest quotes ever: Jim Kaat On Jim Kaat - Baseball Nation, "I lived in the Hall of Enjoyment for 25 seasons and you can't beat that."

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