you have to produce consistently in that area to get and this is one. It also if I am correct is 10million more that will not count against the cap bringing the average only down 1 million which is small considering the total but is still important. Ill be interested to see the full breakdown though cause im assuming it is partly front loaded.

A-Rod is only three and a half years older, and he has 184 more home runs than Pujols. That is a huge difference. If Pujols stays healthy for ten more seasons, he could get to 763, although (as pointed out above) he would have to average 32 home runs per season in that time. It is almost inconceivable that he would average more than that.

A-Rod, by contrast, is only 134 home runs away right now. If he averages 23 home runs per season for the next six seasons, he gets there. In order for Pujols to be in that position, he would have to hit 184 home runs in the next four seasons — an average of 46 per season — and there is not much reason to believe that he will do that.

There is no guarantee, of course, that A-Rod will hit the 134 more home runs that he needs. Admittedly, he hit only 16 last year. At the same time, however, he did that while missing 40 percent of the Yankees’ games, and he hit 30 home runs in each of the two prior seasons. Each time that A-Rod hits 30 home runs from here on out — something he did seemingly every season prior to 2011 — he can put up a season of only 16 home runs and still have the required average over the next six years to get there.

The point is, A-Rod is still much better positioned than Pujols is to break Bonds’s record. The legitimacy of the record is a separate issue.