Big Vern and the Epic Comeback
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Now, honestly, I don’t expect Wells to win the Comeback Player of the Year because his last year wasn’t bad enough. However, it was pretty rough. I don’t think anyone expected him to reproduce his last year in Toronto because Anaheim is more of a pitcher’s park. However, this year’s production, .218/.241/.412 was below what everyone projected. I do cut him a little slack, though. This was his first year on a new team that lacked big bats and put VW in a position he shouldn’t have been in, trying to drive the ball out of the park on every swing. This usually ended in him rolling over an off-speed pitch (dribblers to 3B/SS) or getting too long in his swing (popping out to the right side).
But there is precedent for a VW comeback. Last year’s MVP candidate Curtis Granderson.
<!--StartFragment-->Like VW, Granderson moved from one AL team to another. Granderson had high expectations and fell far below them. I’ll run a couple of comparisons to illustrate the similarities.
Well’s and Granderson’s average year before changing teams:
|
Player |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
WAR |
|
Wells (9 years) |
640 |
24.5 |
84.5 |
88 |
9.33 |
.274 |
.323 |
.469 |
- |
|
Grandy (5 years) |
573 |
20.4 |
86 |
59.8 |
13 |
.267 |
.345 |
.493 |
- |
The average numbers were taken beginning in the years that each player played a significant amount. Again, it appears that the players are reasonably similar. Also, Granderson’s BA/OBP/SLG are all pushed up by his last year (I didn’t feel like calculating out those numbers).
The year before the players changed teams:
|
Player |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
WAR |
|
Wells (Tor ’10) |
646 |
31 |
79 |
88 |
6 |
.273 |
.331 |
.515 |
3.8 |
|
Grandy (Det ’09) |
710 |
30 |
91 |
71 |
20 |
.249 |
.327 |
.453 |
2.9 |
It is arguable who had the better year before actually changing team. Of course, you factor in the contracts and it is no comparison. Wells is owed $63M over 3 years. Grandy is owed $30M over 5 (an extension he signed w/ the Tigers pre-trade).
Now, each players’ years in the first year after their respective trades:
|
Player |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
WAR |
|
Wells (LAA ‘11) |
529 |
25 |
60 |
66 |
9 |
.218 |
.248 |
.412 |
0.3 |
|
Grandy (NYY ‘10) |
528 |
24 |
76 |
67 |
12 |
.247 |
.324 |
.468 |
3.5 |
Granderson’s second year in NY and Wells’ projections for this upcoming season (from a few different sources):
|
Player |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
WAR |
|
Grandy (5 years) |
691 |
41 |
136 |
119 |
25 |
.262 |
.364 |
.468 |
7.0
|
|
Wells (Bill James Proj. ) |
542 |
22 |
65 |
70 |
8 |
.260 |
.311 |
.452 |
- |
|
Wells (Fangraph Fan Proj.) |
518 |
21 |
56 |
62 |
6 |
.258 |
.302 |
.447 |
1.6 |
|
Wells (cougwilly’s fearless Proj.) |
593 |
28 |
69 |
83 |
7 |
.265 |
.330 |
.472 |
3.6 |
Of course, there are some key differences. Granderson moved into a hitter’s park, especially for lefties. Grandy hit in front of Texiera/Rodriguez, a combo that is clearly more formidable than Trumbo/Callaspo (when Wells was hitting 4). Also, Granderson is three years younger. However, Wells doesn’t play CF anymore, allowing him to conserve some energy.
Wells won’t play up to the level of his contract, but I predict he will be a valuable piece this year. I highly doubt that he will lose time to Trout (even though Trout needs to see the field – but that’s another post).
<!--EndFragment-->This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Comments
i PREDICTED A COMEBACK FOR VW
above .300 with 40HR and 30 SB but 6 errors
The neighbor is a cranky irish expat. He if wanted no snakes, he shoulda stayed in Ireland.
-Moondoggy
That's where he lost me
NOT MY QUINNY!!!!
by halofan4life on Dec 22, 2011 9:12 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
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I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Dec 21, 2011 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
2 fanpost in 2 days
very Halowoodish
The neighbor is a cranky irish expat. He if wanted no snakes, he shoulda stayed in Ireland.
-Moondoggy
Gosh guys, douse me in gasoline and light me on fire, Why are you calling me a martyr?
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by Balls and Strikes on Dec 22, 2011 12:09 AM PST up reply actions
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The neighbor is a cranky irish expat. He if wanted no snakes, he shoulda stayed in Ireland.
-Moondoggy
<!--StartFragment--> Don't Worry
Help is only a few feet away

by eyespy on Dec 22, 2011 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I've watched this maybe .gif 1,000 times in my life.
I laugh every time.
Winning doesn't matter. -Lyle
I love being a one-man crowd...
On a serious note … I also think Vern comes back in 2012. I think a 260/25/90 campaign is in store for us. Not too shabby.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Dec 21, 2011 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
you think he will crack .300 obp?
honestly I can see him being pretty similar to trumbo
but, you know, making 20 million dollars
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Dec 21, 2011 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
I think I would be ok with that
Relatively speaking.
by stevefinleyallstars on Dec 22, 2011 7:13 AM PST up reply actions
Jokes aside, I see him sticking in LF all season too
Probably .275 / 20 HR / 90 RBI
RIP Nick Adenhart
Probably lower BA, more HR.
I’d think .260 / 25-30 HR / 80 RBI
Basically a slightly better Juan Rivera.
by moralesforpresident on Dec 21, 2011 5:06 PM PST up reply actions
I started to read this post, saw a bunch of words, charts and then the name Curtis Granderson in red.
That’s when I stopped to come here to write (before I go back and read the rest):
Is he available???
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we use to discuss.
by snowhor on Dec 21, 2011 3:31 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Okay, I'm back after reading the rest of the post and then fixing a typo in my sig.
Does your expectation of VW’s transformation into a productive player include an understanding that his 2011 stats (.218/.248/.412) are just about the same as his 2010 road stats (.224/.299/.400)?
And if so, do you discount that just because Curtis Granderson improved after a down year or are you basing it on something even remotely relevant to Vernon Wells?
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
Vern sucked in 2011, Vern sucks today, and Vern will suck in 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Besides sucking, the only thing good ol’ Vern excels at is blocking Mike Trout.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by mustard_man on Dec 21, 2011 3:56 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
so what your saying is
that Vernon is a damn that was built after world war 2 to collect the water for the sugar beets
and the Trouts are now blocked from spawning
in this idea
what we need to do is become hippies and blow Vernon to shit.
The neighbor is a cranky irish expat. He if wanted no snakes, he shoulda stayed in Ireland.
-Moondoggy
by DAD OF VLAD on Dec 21, 2011 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Not nearly as good as Big Splash
Where were you on December 8th, 2011 - Pujols Day?
by Rally Manatee on Dec 21, 2011 11:49 PM PST up reply actions
Hrmm after careful thought
I do cut him a little slack, though. This was his first year on a new team that lacked big bats and put VW in a position he shouldn’t have been in, trying to drive the ball out of the park on every swing.

That is all
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
What's on the eye on the left?
This is animal cruetly, Phi… YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED!
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Dec 21, 2011 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
(Sobs uncontrollably as I sprint away to find my mom)
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
a terrible play
I prefer “The King and I”
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Dec 22, 2011 9:04 PM PST up reply actions
4 X 3/4 = 3
I have a feeling that Trout is going to rake in Spring Training, and I think that 3/4 of Wells, Bourjos, Hunter and Trout is better than Trout causing nightmares for pitchers in the PCL. I propose an even split of 4 outfielders for 3 positions, so each would play 120 games over the course of the season. This only works because Trout is a flexible option at all 3 positions. He can spell Big Vern in left, Petey in center and Torii in right (and on the 4th day he rested). The two older guys may play better with rest and the younger ones can use their off-day to work on pitch selection from our acting hitting coach Bobby Abreu and his best-selling short course “OBP and You”. In this scenario, not only will Trout win Rookie of the Year, but I predict he will win 3 gold gloves for all 3 outfield positions.
Or it may just piss off all of our outfielders.
I'm into the pain...
by V-Hawk Angelorum on Dec 21, 2011 4:58 PM PST reply actions
Bourjos was our most valuable position player last year
Vernon was replacement level. Why again do we want them to share time equally?
These aren't as bad as Halowood
He’s presenting an idea in a very readable format & most importantly he’s not trying to convince everyone they’re wrong & he knows it all.
Note to cougwilly: If you’re gonna present statistical comparisons, I suggest you go read anything written by Matt Welch & Suboptimal. I’m know there are a couple of others but the GA in me is winning.
And expect it all to be questioned.
I play music for your entertainment
I don't know if it's possible to replicate the detail in a Matt Welch comparison.
He takes just about every angle of every argument.
Maybe that’s why we gripe so much about poorly written posts. We’re so used to great ones that they make the decent ones look like crap.
by moralesforpresident on Dec 21, 2011 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
Big Vern and the Epic Comeback
I agree 100% with cougwilly (Big Vern and the Epic Comeback). VW will have a much better season in 2012, i think he was just trying to do to much last year.
by lifelong_angels_fan on Dec 21, 2011 5:16 PM PST reply actions
Just needs to stay within himself, trust his mechanics and take it one pitch at a time.
by Balls and Strikes on Dec 22, 2011 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
The title made me think this was going to be spam for a porn site
Not that I clicked through or anything.
Oh you
You got what I neeeeed
But you say hes just a troll
But you say hes just a troll
OOHHH SUB OP YOUUUUUUUUUUUUU
WHAT GOT WHAT I NEEEEEEEDDDDD
BUT YOU SAY IM JUST A NEWB
BUT YOU SAY IM JUST A NEWB
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Dec 21, 2011 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
As much as I approve of Biz Markie...
Couldn’t you have rickrolled him instead?
Dont judge my my love or how I display it to my SubOpyPoo
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
You sir, have a new screen name
And far be it from me to judge. Far be it from me. Especially when all is as entertaining as this. My apologies for questioning!!!
If by that you mean by depression fueled alcoholism is getting worse
then yes, I agree whole completely.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
I kinda miss Halowood
What’d he do to get banned anyhow? I ended up missing that.
He died (banned) a martyr for all Halo fans everywhere
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Dec 21, 2011 8:35 PM PST up reply actions
But what'd he do?
I leave the wired world (teh internetz) for a few weeks for work way back when, and I come back and he’s gone. Where did it all go wrong?!
The Fact That Albert Pujols Is The Center Piece Of The Angels Lineup
Makes it a lot more likely that Wells will bounce back, simply because he and everyone else in the lineup will go back to their normal roles. Hunter and Wells are not equipped to carry an offense on their backs, but Pujols is. Therefore, the pressure is far less than it was in 2011. And Wells can concentrate on hitting line drives instead of trying to hit everything out of the ballpark and be the star, which he is not. This lineup became very deep overnight.
I am banking on the same idea
Let’s hope we’re right!
Where were you on December 8th, 2011 - Pujols Day?
by Rally Manatee on Dec 21, 2011 11:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Big Vern's back, bitches!

Tim Salmon: The once and future Kingfish.
by Teixeira Who? on Dec 21, 2011 9:35 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Hopefully Big Splash will benefit from El Hombre
I look forward to seeing who hits in front of and behind Pujols. If Wells is in one those spots (which e probably shouldn’t be), then we may see a significant upgrade in his offense.
As much of a huge deal it is to have Pujols in Anaheim (I STILL CAN"T BELIEVE IT!), part of me is being really greedy and wishing we had another great hitter. I was watching an MLBN show on the greatest 1-2 punches in baseball history, and it made me covetous. We need an Eddie Mathews to our Hank Aaron! It probably won’t be Vernon, but maybe. If healthy, it would more likely be Kendrys Morales.
Where were you on December 8th, 2011 - Pujols Day?
by Rally Manatee on Dec 22, 2011 12:03 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
How About Prince Fielder?
They still need a lefty power bat to break up the righties… I can still dream can’t I?
That would be hilarious
We’d have 4 first basemen to suss out. Trumbo would get traded fo sho, maybe Morales too. And either Fielder or Albert would have to DH a bunch or play another position. Too messy.
Where were you on December 8th, 2011 - Pujols Day?
by Rally Manatee on Dec 22, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
fielder can play third, right?
he just stands there and his gravitational pull drags the ball towards him
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Dec 23, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
I see three strikes in that pic
And Naps is STILL getting on base. Then he goes first to third.
When the dust has settled, Naps has scored and the rest of us are wondering how he lumbered around the bases as he does to score that many times in one night.
meanwhile Mathis admires his mullet while Lyle Spencer tells him he’s pretty

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